GiveBetter x Los Angeles

Climate Resolve

Heat resilience, local cooling and climate policy

Research time: 7 min on GPT-6 Astra Light
  • Research — reviewed programs, finances and impact evidence.

Updated: 2026-09-14

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Summary

What do they do? Climate Resolve works on local cooling, heat protections, climate planning and wildfire resilience. A whole-recipient-cost scenario models additional implementation of LA County's heat protections plus new cool-roof benefit. It is a subjective estimate of a substantial local heat pathway, not a complete valuation of global climate or the entire policy portfolio.

Why we’re interested in this organization:

  • Real local installations, current heat-policy participation and primary public implementation documents establish plausible mechanisms.

  • The model distinguishes existing law from donation-sensitive additional compliance and uses finite protection periods.

  • Original returns allow gross recipient expenses, including event costs hidden by net revenue reporting, to be reconstructed.

Our main reservations:

  • Additional compliance, agency influence and health-utility conversions are explicit priors, not measured effects.

  • Public enforcement, utility assistance, existing construction rules and commercial partners can substitute for donations.

  • Broader wildfire, transportation, global climate and planning effects remain unpriced; the heat-component price should not masquerade as a complete portfolio ranking.

What do you get for your dollar? $14.1M per better life: ten additional quality-adjusted life years in Los Angeles. Local heat health only; other impacts unestimated.

Additional effectively cooled resident-years and equivalent symptom/stress-relieved days in LA/Orange boundary; not cool roofs, grants, laws, workshop attendance or ambient surface degrees themselves.

1. What do they do?

Climate Resolve (EIN 46-4736278) combines policy, implementation, technical assistance and community engagement. Its 2025 year-end account reports more than 40 cool roofs in Pacoima, Watts and Wilmington and local public-space cooling projects. These named places are within LA County. Shine On also works internationally, whose global climate benefits cannot simply be assigned to LA residents.

The original FY 2025 return describes heat standards, county plans, resilience funding, wildfire recovery and neighborhood work. An ordinary gift supports that recipient, not an assumed restricted roof project. The donation route was verified without making a transaction. Original FY 2025 return

2. Monitoring and information sharing

An original county report dated July 14, 2025 supplies a 97,124-unit unincorporated rental inventory in Table 1. It is an estimated inventory, not homes needing cooling. The same report says retrofit needs cannot be quantified from assessor data and notes enforcement, grid and tenant-cost concerns. Its countywide 75% air-conditioning survey is not an observed fraction for those rental units.

A randomized crossover experiment exposed 16 older adults to four eight-hour indoor temperatures. It found greater core-temperature and cardiovascular strain at 31°C and 36°C, with much less change at 26°C. This establishes physiological plausibility, not a QALY effect or mortality rate for an 82°F ordinance. The Pacoima field study concerns thermal conditions around reflective pavement, not randomized clinical outcomes; surface-temperature reductions are not equivalent to residents' whole-day exposure reductions.

Monitor effective cooling during occupied heat-hours, electricity affordability and actual use, resident symptoms and utility, complaint resolution, landlord compliance and displacement. Compare supported buildings with otherwise-similar buildings already receiving county or utility help. For roofs, verify replacement timing, preexisting code/rebate obligations, occupancy, exposure change and coating durability.

3. Qualitative assessment

The March 2026 county guidance limits the ordinance to unincorporated LA County and specifies complaint-based enforcement beginning January 2027. Small landlords initially need one habitable room cooled, with whole-unit requirements by 2032; extensions can apply. A new gift cannot be credited with the entire benefit of this already-adopted rule.

Climate Resolve's February 17, 2026 city submission demonstrates active advocacy about implementation timing and city adoption. The official city action adopted amended reports about options; it does not itself establish a final citywide heat ordinance. The model therefore uses the county inventory only, not all City of LA renters.

The relevant margin is better implementation or earlier protection despite existing county inspections and assistance. Policy-specific success and recipient influence are separate judgments. Landlord costs, electricity bills, grid reliability and tenant displacement can offset health gains; claiming an unrestricted donation purchases all public and private capital needed would be misleading.

4. What do you get for your dollar?

The illustrative central local heat-component price is about $14.1 million per 10 LA QALYs. It uses $3,745,093 gross annual recipient expense, not a cheap roof-only budget. This is not the whole portfolio's return: transportation, wildfire, global mitigation and other effects remain unpriced.

The county branch starts with 97,124 rental units, assumes 25% have meaningful unmet cooling need and 2.5 residents per unit, then a 10-percentage-point additional effective-compliance gain attributable to a stronger coalition implementation effort. Climate Resolve receives 10% causal attribution and ordinary funding has 50% responsiveness. These are subjective assumptions, not probabilities estimated from the documents. Each effectively protected person receives 20 equivalent symptom/stress-relieved days per year at utility gain 0.05, for three years with 3% discounting. This yields about 2.35 LA QALYs.

The roof branch uses a conservative 40-unit normalization from the reported 'more than 40', 50% ordinary-gift/partner additionality, three residents per roof, and 20 equivalent improved days at utility gain 0.02 over five years. This yields about 0.301 QALYs. The roof addresses are in incorporated City of LA while the policy denominator is unincorporated county, avoiding immediate geographic overlap. Total is about 2.65 QALYs. No avoided deaths, indefinite recurring law benefit, dollar savings or solar carbon credit is added.

One year's organizational effort is assumed to accelerate effective protection for three years before the baseline catches up; ongoing public compliance costs remain outside the donor-price numerator. This is donor leverage conditional on those resources, not an all-society cost-effectiveness result. A sensitivity adds $1,000 of incremental resource cost per donor-attributable cooling unit (121.405 units already include organizational attribution and funding responsiveness). All utility and timing assumptions need testing; zero and downside remain possible.

Model, assumptions and sensitivity

Entire recipient annual gross resource expense: Part IX plus separately netted event costs. This is not restricted to Shine On. Additional public and landlord capital is excluded from the donor price but included in a disclosed sensitivity. The numerical estimate covers the heat component, not the full portfolio.

g=1 for modeled unincorporated LA County rental units and named City of LA roofs. County rule not applied automatically to incorporated cities or Orange County. Global Shine On effects unpriced.

Q_LA(D) = (D / C) × [U × f × h × p × a × b × (H × u / 365) × A3 + R × z × hr × (Hr × ur / 365) × A5], where AT = sum from t = 1 to T of (1.03)^(-t). U = 97124; f = 0.25; h = 2.5; p = 0.1; a = 0.1; b = 0.5; H = 20; u = 0.05; R = 40; z = 0.5; hr = 3; Hr = 20; ur = 0.02; C = 3745093. Price per ten QALYs = 10 × D / Q_LA(D). Q_total = Q_heat + Q_other - Harm; the other-portfolio and harm terms remain unknown.

C
3745093 USD gross recipient annual expense (observed). $3,582,432 in Part IX plus $162,661 in separately netted Part VIII event costs; no program-only restriction. [99025]
U
97124 estimated rental units (observed). County report Table 1, July 2025; not current verified cooling need. [county-inventory]
f
0.25 units needing meaningful additional cooling (judgment). Countywide 75% AC survey is context only; no empirical rental-specific estimate. [county-inventory]
h
2.5 residents per target unit (judgment). Not observed occupancy.
p
0.1 additional effective compliance fraction under stronger coalition implementation (judgment). Not a law-adoption probability; resources and complaints could alter implementation. [county26]
a
0.1 Climate Resolve causal share (judgment). Coalition and agency roles, not sole credit. [city-letter]
b
0.5 ordinary funding responsiveness (judgment). Limited unrestricted cushion but no verified costed queue. [99025]
H
20 equivalent symptom/stress-relieved days per protected resident-year (judgment). Not meteorological hot days; permits partial-day and partial-effect aggregation.
u
0.05 health utility difference on equivalent relieved day (judgment). Not derived from core temperature or a QALY trial. [heat-trial]
R
40 roof cohort annual normalization (judgment). Conservative floor from more than 40 reported 2025 installations, not a promised annual run rate. [year25]
z
0.5 ordinary gift and partner roof additionality (judgment). Allows code-required replacement and partner funding. [shine]
hr
3 residents per roof (judgment). No observed occupancy.
Hr
20 equivalent improved days per roof resident-year (judgment). Effective exposure and use assumed.
ur
0.02 utility difference per improved roof-resident day (judgment). Smaller than full safe-room cooling; no empirical QALY conversion.
Tpolicy
3 years (judgment). Finite acceleration before the baseline catches up.
Troof
5 years (judgment). Finite durability, no automatic replacement.
d
0.03 annual discount (judgment). One-year lag to first annual benefit.
Q_other
null LA QALYs (unknown). Broader portfolio unpriced, not zero. [home]

Local heat policy plus roof component — not entire portfolio: Cost: $3.7M; Los Angeles QALYs: 2.6532380173839467; all-population QALYs: 2.6532380173839467. Central inputs, three-year policy acceleration and five-year roof benefit; all other portfolio effects remain unpriced.

Weak implementation and health response: Cost: $3.7M; Los Angeles QALYs: 0.009786308109630392; all-population QALYs: 0.009786308109630392. f = 0.1; p = 0.02; a = 0.03; b = 0.2; H = 10; u = 0.01; z = 0.1; Hr = 10; ur = 0.005. This is not a confidence bound.

Strong effective implementation and morbidity improvement: Cost: $3.7M; Los Angeles QALYs: 152.94387294931383; all-population QALYs: 152.94387294931383. f = 0.4; p = 0.25; a = 0.25; b = 0.8; H = 40; u = 0.1; z = 0.8; Hr = 40; ur = 0.05. This is not a confidence bound.

Illustrative donor-attributable cooling-resource sensitivity: Cost: $3.9M; Los Angeles QALYs: 2.6532380173839467; all-population QALYs: 2.6532380173839467. Add $1,000 × 121.405 units, where units=U*f*p*a*b already include organization attribution and funding responsiveness. Not all coalition-induced units or complete societal cost. Actual capital cost unknown; no numerical change.

Full substitution or no additional health: Cost: $3.7M; Los Angeles QALYs: 0; all-population QALYs: 0. Existing public/private provision achieves the same outcomes.

Adverse net effect unquantified: Cost: $3.7M; Los Angeles QALYs: unknown; all-population QALYs: unknown. Displacement, energy burden, unsafe cooling or policy trade-offs may outweigh benefits; no fabricated negative bound.

Counterfactual: Existing county law, inspectors, utility help, landlord obligations, existing code-compliant roof replacement, partners and other advocates continue. Only additional implementation/acceleration and genuinely additional roofs credited; no retroactive policy win.

Attribution: p is coalition-level additional effective compliance; a is Climate Resolve causal share; b is ordinary funding responsiveness. Roof z combines replacement and partner/funding additionality. Incorporated roof sites separated from unincorporated policy denominator. No media-view, carbon-offset or public-grant multiplier.

Subjective heat-component central, not calibrated posterior or full portfolio. Physiological and thermal evidence supports mechanism, not QALY weights. Native scope and current cost are observed; most conversion/attribution factors are priors. Finite 3-year acceleration and 5-year roof benefit; zero/downside retained.

Sensitivity

  • Only roof branch: Q=0.3011314314867639; most modeled health comes from uncertain policy implementation.
  • Half/double utility gains halve/double Q; no mortality term included.
  • $1 million/10 QALYs requires 37.45093 LA QALYs per annual gross recipient-cost normalization; $100 thousand requires 374.5093.
  • At assumed 20 days*.05 utility, $1 million/10 QALYs needs about 13,669.59 additional discounted protected person-years (before roof contribution).
  • Illustrative donor-attributable resource sensitivity adds $1,000 × 121.405 attributable additional cooling units = $121,405. Units = U*f*p*a*b = 97,124*.25*.1*.1*.5 and already include Climate Resolve's causal share a and ordinary-funding responsiveness b. These are not all coalition-induced units; this is not a full societal-cost estimate. $1,000 is not an observed retrofit cost or amount paid by donors.
  • Three-year acceleration assumes baseline catches up; extending law benefits indefinitely is not allowed.

Unresolved inputs

  • Observed unmet-cooling fraction and occupancy for the 97,124 unit inventory.
  • Current ordinary-gift policy staffing and compliance improvement beyond funded public implementation.
  • Clinical utility change per occupied exposure-day, implementation lag, electricity affordability and displacement.
  • Additionality, code baseline, partner finance and durability for new roof cohorts.
  • Marginal wildfire, transportation, global climate and planning outcomes with LA beneficiary attribution.

5. Funding and previous grants

Original returns for years ending June 2023, 2024 and 2025 report Part IX expenses of $3,236,208, $3,487,403 and $3,582,432. They separately net event expenses of $75,120, $138,625 and $162,661 in Part VIII. Gross recipient-resource expenses are therefore $3,311,328, $3,626,028 and $3,745,093, a three-year mean of $3,560,816.33. Asset sale basis is not added as a current service expense. FY 2023 return, FY 2024 return, FY 2025 return

FY 2025 reported revenue was $3,262,305 after event netting: $450,324 government contributions, $589,612 contract revenue, and other contributions and receipts. Part IX allocated $2,538,921 to programs, $663,918 management and $379,593 fundraising, before the separately netted event costs. Net assets were $906,954, of which $603,069 restricted and $303,885 unrestricted. The revenue-expense deficit was $320,127; unrealized gains explain the smaller net-asset decline. This is evidence of limited unrestricted cushioning, not proof of a costed marginal funding gap. The return reports an independent audit, but the audit opinion was not obtained here.

Government, utility and developer-funded projects may already finance installations. The county implementation proposal identifies public enforcement and assistance and landlord retrofit obligations; it is not a grant to Climate Resolve. Request current unrestricted allocation, remaining contract deliverables, roof-specific partner financing, policy staffing capacity, and what would be delayed without the next donation. Historic advocacy wins cannot be purchased retroactively.

Annual expenses

Organization-level spending, including programs, administration and fundraising. The research list averages three comparable, consecutive full fiscal years when available.

  • FY 2023: $3.3M; Climate Resolve, EIN46-4736278, 12-month period, Accrual Form 990 Part IX plus separately netted direct event expenses; gross recipient resources; fiscal year ending June 30. Source
  • FY 2024: $3.6M; Climate Resolve, EIN46-4736278, 12-month period, Accrual Form 990 Part IX plus separately netted direct event expenses; gross recipient resources; fiscal year ending June 30. Source
  • FY 2025: $3.7M; Climate Resolve, EIN46-4736278, 12-month period, Accrual Form 990 Part IX plus separately netted direct event expenses; gross recipient resources; fiscal year ending June 30. Source

6. Sources

  1. Current portfolio. Climate Resolve. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-09-14.
  2. 2025 year-end activities. Climate Resolve. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-09-14.
  3. Shine On local/global scope. Climate Resolve. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-09-14.
  4. Original FY2025 Form 990. Climate Resolve / IRS via ProPublica. Published: 2026-03-11; retrieved: 2026-09-14.
  5. Original FY2024 Form 990. Climate Resolve / IRS via ProPublica. Published: 2025-05-08; retrieved: 2026-09-14.
  6. Original FY2023 Form 990. Climate Resolve / IRS via ProPublica. Published: 2024-02-04; retrieved: 2026-09-14.
  7. July 2025 county heat policy and rental inventory, Table 1. LA County Department of Public Health. Published: 2025-07-14; retrieved: 2026-09-14.
  8. March 2026 tenant indoor-temperature guidance. LA County Department of Public Health. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-09-14.
  9. August 2025 ordinance proposal and implementation resources. LA County Department of Public Health. Published: 2025-08-05; retrieved: 2026-09-14.
  10. Climate Resolve February 2026 city heat-policy submission. Climate Resolve via LA City Clerk. Published: 2026-02-17; retrieved: 2026-09-14.
  11. Official city action on amended reports, not a final ordinance. Los Angeles City Clerk. Published: 2026-02-17; retrieved: 2026-09-14.
  12. Randomized indoor-heat physiological crossover trial. Meade et al., Environmental Health Perspectives. Published: 2024-02-08; retrieved: 2026-09-14.
  13. Pacoima observational thermal field study. Taha, Environmental Research Communications. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-09-14.
  14. Ordinary recipient donation route. Climate Resolve. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-09-14.