{"edition":"los-angeles","organization":"Climate Resolve","organizationId":"org:climate-resolve","boundaryVersion":"OMB-23-01-2023-07-21","updated":"2026-09-14","model":{"version":"la-climate-resolve-heat-policy-v1","costScope":"Entire recipient annual gross resource expense: Part IX plus separately netted event costs. This is not restricted to Shine On. Additional public and landlord capital is excluded from the donor price but included in a disclosed sensitivity. The numerical estimate covers the heat component, not the full portfolio.","geographicAttribution":"g=1 for modeled unincorporated LA County rental units and named City of LA roofs. County rule not applied automatically to incorporated cities or Orange County. Global Shine On effects unpriced.","formula":"Q_LA(D) = (D / C) × [U × f × h × p × a × b × (H × u / 365) × A3 + R × z × hr × (Hr × ur / 365) × A5], where AT = sum from t = 1 to T of (1.03)^(-t). U = 97124; f = 0.25; h = 2.5; p = 0.1; a = 0.1; b = 0.5; H = 20; u = 0.05; R = 40; z = 0.5; hr = 3; Hr = 20; ur = 0.02; C = 3745093. Price per ten QALYs = 10 × D / Q_LA(D). Q_total = Q_heat + Q_other - Harm; the other-portfolio and harm terms remain unknown.","counterfactual":"Existing county law, inspectors, utility help, landlord obligations, existing code-compliant roof replacement, partners and other advocates continue. Only additional implementation/acceleration and genuinely additional roofs credited; no retroactive policy win.","attribution":"p is coalition-level additional effective compliance; a is Climate Resolve causal share; b is ordinary funding responsiveness. Roof z combines replacement and partner/funding additionality. Incorporated roof sites separated from unincorporated policy denominator. No media-view, carbon-offset or public-grant multiplier.","uncertainty":"Subjective heat-component central, not calibrated posterior or full portfolio. Physiological and thermal evidence supports mechanism, not QALY weights. Native scope and current cost are observed; most conversion/attribution factors are priors. Finite 3-year acceleration and 5-year roof benefit; zero/downside retained.","nativeOutcomes":"Additional effectively cooled resident-years and equivalent symptom/stress-relieved days in LA/Orange boundary; not cool roofs, grants, laws, workshop attendance or ambient surface degrees themselves.","inputs":[{"name":"C","value":3745093,"unit":"USD gross recipient annual expense","basis":"observed","rationale":"$3,582,432 in Part IX plus $162,661 in separately netted Part VIII event costs; no program-only restriction.","sourceIds":["99025"]},{"name":"U","value":97124,"unit":"estimated rental units","basis":"observed","rationale":"County report Table 1, July 2025; not current verified cooling need.","sourceIds":["county-inventory"]},{"name":"f","value":0.25,"unit":"units needing meaningful additional cooling","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Countywide 75% AC survey is context only; no empirical rental-specific estimate.","sourceIds":["county-inventory"]},{"name":"h","value":2.5,"unit":"residents per target unit","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Not observed occupancy.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"p","value":0.1,"unit":"additional effective compliance fraction under stronger coalition implementation","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Not a law-adoption probability; resources and complaints could alter implementation.","sourceIds":["county26"]},{"name":"a","value":0.1,"unit":"Climate Resolve causal share","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Coalition and agency roles, not sole credit.","sourceIds":["city-letter"]},{"name":"b","value":0.5,"unit":"ordinary funding responsiveness","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Limited unrestricted cushion but no verified costed queue.","sourceIds":["99025"]},{"name":"H","value":20,"unit":"equivalent symptom/stress-relieved days per protected resident-year","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Not meteorological hot days; permits partial-day and partial-effect aggregation.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"u","value":0.05,"unit":"health utility difference on equivalent relieved day","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Not derived from core temperature or a QALY trial.","sourceIds":["heat-trial"]},{"name":"R","value":40,"unit":"roof cohort annual normalization","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Conservative floor from more than 40 reported 2025 installations, not a promised annual run rate.","sourceIds":["year25"]},{"name":"z","value":0.5,"unit":"ordinary gift and partner roof additionality","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Allows code-required replacement and partner funding.","sourceIds":["shine"]},{"name":"hr","value":3,"unit":"residents per roof","basis":"judgment","rationale":"No observed occupancy.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"Hr","value":20,"unit":"equivalent improved days per roof resident-year","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Effective exposure and use assumed.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"ur","value":0.02,"unit":"utility difference per improved roof-resident day","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Smaller than full safe-room cooling; no empirical QALY conversion.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"Tpolicy","value":3,"unit":"years","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite acceleration before the baseline catches up.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"Troof","value":5,"unit":"years","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite durability, no automatic replacement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"d","value":0.03,"unit":"annual discount","basis":"judgment","rationale":"One-year lag to first annual benefit.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"Q_other","value":null,"unit":"LA QALYs","basis":"unknown","rationale":"Broader portfolio unpriced, not zero.","sourceIds":["home"]}],"scenarios":[{"id":"central","label":"Local heat policy plus roof component — not entire portfolio","costUSD":3745093,"allPopulationQalys":2.6532380173839467,"editionQalys":2.6532380173839467,"assumptions":"Central inputs, three-year policy acceleration and five-year roof benefit; all other portfolio effects remain unpriced."},{"id":"conservative","label":"Weak implementation and health response","costUSD":3745093,"allPopulationQalys":0.009786308109630392,"editionQalys":0.009786308109630392,"assumptions":"f = 0.1; p = 0.02; a = 0.03; b = 0.2; H = 10; u = 0.01; z = 0.1; Hr = 10; ur = 0.005. This is not a confidence bound."},{"id":"favorable","label":"Strong effective implementation and morbidity improvement","costUSD":3745093,"allPopulationQalys":152.94387294931383,"editionQalys":152.94387294931383,"assumptions":"f = 0.4; p = 0.25; a = 0.25; b = 0.8; H = 40; u = 0.1; z = 0.8; Hr = 40; ur = 0.05. This is not a confidence bound."},{"id":"all-resource-sensitivity","label":"Illustrative donor-attributable cooling-resource sensitivity","costUSD":3866498,"allPopulationQalys":2.6532380173839467,"editionQalys":2.6532380173839467,"assumptions":"Add $1,000 × 121.405 units, where units=U*f*p*a*b already include organization attribution and funding responsiveness. Not all coalition-induced units or complete societal cost. Actual capital cost unknown; no numerical change."},{"id":"zero","label":"Full substitution or no additional health","costUSD":3745093,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"assumptions":"Existing public/private provision achieves the same outcomes."},{"id":"downside","label":"Adverse net effect unquantified","costUSD":3745093,"allPopulationQalys":null,"editionQalys":null,"assumptions":"Displacement, energy burden, unsafe cooling or policy trade-offs may outweigh benefits; no fabricated negative bound."}],"sensitivity":["Only roof branch: Q=0.3011314314867639; most modeled health comes from uncertain policy implementation.","Half/double utility gains halve/double Q; no mortality term included.","$1 million/10 QALYs requires 37.45093 LA QALYs per annual gross recipient-cost normalization; $100 thousand requires 374.5093.","At assumed 20 days*.05 utility, $1 million/10 QALYs needs about 13,669.59 additional discounted protected person-years (before roof contribution).","Illustrative donor-attributable resource sensitivity adds $1,000 × 121.405 attributable additional cooling units = $121,405. Units = U*f*p*a*b = 97,124*.25*.1*.1*.5 and already include Climate Resolve's causal share a and ordinary-funding responsiveness b. These are not all coalition-induced units; this is not a full societal-cost estimate. $1,000 is not an observed retrofit cost or amount paid by donors.","Three-year acceleration assumes baseline catches up; extending law benefits indefinitely is not allowed."],"missingInputs":["Observed unmet-cooling fraction and occupancy for the 97,124 unit inventory.","Current ordinary-gift policy staffing and compliance improvement beyond funded public implementation.","Clinical utility change per occupied exposure-day, implementation lag, electricity affordability and displacement.","Additionality, code baseline, partner finance and durability for new roof cohorts.","Marginal wildfire, transportation, global climate and planning outcomes with LA beneficiary attribution."]},"sources":[{"id":"home","title":"Current portfolio","url":"https://climateresolve.org/","publisher":"Climate Resolve","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"year25","title":"2025 year-end activities","url":"https://climateresolve.org/winds-of-change/","publisher":"Climate Resolve","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"shine","title":"Shine On local/global scope","url":"https://climateresolve.org/shine-on-initiative/","publisher":"Climate Resolve","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"99025","title":"Original FY2025 Form 990","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/464736278/202620709349301592/full","publisher":"Climate Resolve / IRS via ProPublica","published":"2026-03-11","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"99024","title":"Original FY2024 Form 990","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/464736278/202541289349303174/full","publisher":"Climate Resolve / IRS via ProPublica","published":"2025-05-08","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"99023","title":"Original FY2023 Form 990","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/464736278/202430349349300418/full","publisher":"Climate Resolve / IRS via ProPublica","published":"2024-02-04","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"county-inventory","title":"July 2025 county heat policy and rental inventory, Table 1","url":"https://file.lacounty.gov/SDSInter/bos/bc/1188278_EstablishingaSafeMaximumTemperatureThresholdforResidentialUnitsDirective1Jan23.2024Item47.14.pdf","publisher":"LA County Department of Public Health","published":"2025-07-14","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"county26","title":"March 2026 tenant indoor-temperature guidance","url":"https://ph.lacounty.gov/eh/docs/about/indoor-temperature-requirements-en.pdf","publisher":"LA County Department of Public Health","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"county-adoption","title":"August 2025 ordinance proposal and implementation resources","url":"https://file.lacounty.gov/SDSInter/bos/supdocs/205510.pdf","publisher":"LA County Department of Public Health","published":"2025-08-05","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"city-letter","title":"Climate Resolve February 2026 city heat-policy submission","url":"https://cityclerk.lacity.org/onlinedocs/2025/25-1036_PC_AM_02-17-2026.pdf","publisher":"Climate Resolve via LA City Clerk","published":"2026-02-17","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"city-action","title":"Official city action on amended reports, not a final ordinance","url":"https://cityclerk.lacity.org/onlinedocs/2025/25-1036_CA.pdf","publisher":"Los Angeles City Clerk","published":"2026-02-17","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"heat-trial","title":"Randomized indoor-heat physiological crossover trial","url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38329752/","publisher":"Meade et al., Environmental Health Perspectives","published":"2024-02-08","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"pavement","title":"Pacoima observational thermal field study","url":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad2a8e","publisher":"Taha, Environmental Research Communications","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"donate","title":"Ordinary recipient donation route","url":"https://climateresolve.org/donate/","publisher":"Climate Resolve","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"}]}