Summary
What do they do? SVBC is EIN77-0338658, serving Santa Clara/San Mateo with regional Bay cycling programs. Education, events, organizing and public-agency engagement share the ordinary budget. Model concentrates on prospective design or acceleration, not electoral persuasion, past lane wins or event attendance. More
Why this approach interests us
- Technical input and community knowledge can improve which crossings are built, their protection, and timing. Safety changes can benefit many users and draw on public implementation resources.
Our main reservations
- The favorable5% world generates 97.2% of signed expected health; without it the estimate is $1,300,569,697. Even that favorable world costs $1,960,219 per10. Site-specific crash exposure, changed implementation and donor contribution are priors.
What do you get for your dollar?
The research list uses the central scenario: $239,958,108 per 10 Bay QALYs. Signed prior-weighted estimate: $38,112,941 per10 Bay QALYs; 0.0002623780702421395 QALYs per illustrative$1,000. Central world: $239,958,108. This is prospective infrastructure-safety health at full organization cost, not all SVBC benefits or a measured giving return. Inspect the model and assumptions.
- whole expense
- $1,844,918 FY2025 — $1,835,529 functional expense plus$5,335 netted event and$4,054 inventory costs. Advocacy-only expense is not the denominator.
- completed project
- No new-gift credit — Caltrans completed the$55M project in2025;13.5miles includes ClassII andIV, not all protected lanes.
- current funding evidence
- Planning already funded; marginal offer unverified — VTA ABC concepts/cost-estimate phase is a design opportunity, not evidence SVBC donations fund construction.
1. What do they do?
SVBC is EIN77-0338658, serving Santa Clara/San Mateo with regional Bay cycling programs. Education, events, organizing and public-agency engagement share the ordinary budget. Model concentrates on prospective design or acceleration, not electoral persuasion, past lane wins or event attendance.
Support the whole organization
One annual whole-budget-equivalent supports a hypothetical portfolio of future infrastructure changes. No repeat credit for the same project every funding year.
Change implementation beyond the baseline
Organization contribution is separate from donor cash response. Public planners, funding, engineers, other advocates and eventual construction remain causal partners and alternatives.
Count finite safety effects
Reduce fatal and disjoint serious nonfatal incident rates during a bounded advantage window, discount implementation lag, and assign finite post-event health. An adverse-design world permits net harm.
Scope of this review. Whole donor-accounting cost, partial health. Public construction/maintenance, funded planning and volunteer inputs are not free societal resources; incremental costs unknown. Bay shares.9–.98 are judgments about affected users, not headquarters attribution. Education, sustained physical activity, transport access and other benefits remain unquantified; not a complete-return claim or guaranteed lower bound.
2. Monitoring and information sharing
Entire SVBC legal recipient
Original990 financial/program sections, reused PhaseA verification. Gross whole expense$1,844,918; advocacy$350,419 is only part of the portfolio. Regional events$826,683 and education$141,675 remain costed.
Our assessment. No program-only donor denominator or claim all resources are cash. Annual output is not marginal impact.
SR82 MountainView–PaloAlto project
Caltrans official completion release. CompletedOctober6,2025;$55M;more than13.5miles ClassII/IV lanes plus other improvements.
Our assessment. Existing infrastructure baseline; no new donation credit and no claim every mile has high protection.
Santa Clara freeway crossings and regional technical engagement
Current VTA plan and SVBC local-team announcement. Publicly funded ABC planning proceeds into concepts/cost estimatesSeptember2026. SVBC local-team microgrant process begins reviewOctober2026.
Our assessment. Concrete current implementation channel, not identified SVBC-attributable safety gains or funding gap. Current events matter only if design/date actually changes.
Injured cyclists in Vancouver/Toronto,2012 study
Case-crossover study of route injury risk. Cycle tracks adjustedOR.11,95%CI.02–.54 versus major streets with parked cars/no cycling infrastructure.
Our assessment. Within-trip comparison controls personal/trip factors but not randomized local construction; no precise fatality reduction or SVBC contribution inferred.
Emergency-department cyclist collision/fall injuries
Primary US three-city case-crossover study, publisher abstract. Heavy separationOR.10(.01–.95); lighter one-way separationOR1.19(.46–3.10); two-wayOR11.38(1.40–92.57), largely one lane.
Our assessment. Design heterogeneity and possible harm prevent universal protected-lane effect. Full text not retrieved in this phase; use as disconfirmation, not direct numerical calibration.
Bike to Health/education/event participants
Public grant proposal and annual filing outputs. FY2026 grant metrics are proposed targets, not observed additional sustained activity. Class counts and challenge miles establish delivery only.
Our assessment. No exercise mortality benefit assigned without retained incremental activity, displacement and health-risk mapping.
3. Qualitative assessment
Technical input and community knowledge can improve which crossings are built, their protection, and timing. Safety changes can benefit many users and draw on public implementation resources.
Key reservations
- No local affected-site injury census; strongest missing scale variable.
- Future implementation contribution and cash response remain speculative.
- Favorable tail supplies97.2%of signed expectation and still fails the threshold by itself.
- Planning and capital are publicly supported; ordinary gift cannot inherit all project outcomes.
- Wholeportfolio physical-activity/access benefits unquantified, not assumed absent.
- Different infrastructure designs can fail or increase risk.
Benefits not included in our estimate
- Completed2025project benefits attributed to new gifts
- Classes, rides, challenge miles or microgrants treated as clinical outcomes
- Unmeasured long-term exercise, pollution, congestion and healthcare-access gains
- Public capital dollars converted to QALYs
- Electoral persuasion and perpetual safety benefits
4. What do you get for your dollar?
$38,112,941 per10 Bay QALYs
Weights locked before first execution: funding-null25%, implementation-null20%, adverse-design10%, cautious20%, central20%, favorable5%. Expected signed QALYs calculated before inversion; no coefficients changed after the unfavorable first result. These weights are not calibrated probabilities.
A better life is our comparison unit of 10 additional quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), potentially spread across people. These are uncertain estimates, not measured returns or verified donation offers.
How we calculate the estimate
Finite prospective safety portfolio: gift / whole expense × organization contribution × donor response × Bay share × net safety reduction × discounted advantage-years × [annual fatal events × finite survival QALYs + annual serious nonfatal events × finite injury QALYs]
0.0002623780702421395 Bay QALYs per$1,000; all-geography0.0002679687759293115
Model inputs and assumptions
- Whole operating boundary
- $1,844,918 (range: FY2025 observed; double-resource diagnostic). Original PartsVIII/IX addbacks retained. Unrestricted netassets$671,427 and about$1.021M cash/savings do not prove current spendable capacity. High, original filing reused.
- Annual incidents in actually changed sites
- .5 fatal;10 serious nonfatal (range: .1/3 cautious;2/30 favorable). Explicit prospective portfolio priors, NOT observed corridor counts or county totals. Event types are disjoint; no multiply by miles or class participants. Very low, analyst prior rather than observed local effect.
- Net incident reduction
- .2 (range: .1 cautious;.4 favorable;0 null;−.05 adverse). Judgmental transport of heterogeneous route-safety evidence, accounting jointly for induced exposure/diversion. Not Teschke odds ratio applied as exact ARR; no duplicate crash penalty. Very low, analyst prior rather than observed local effect.
- Advantage window / implementation lag
- 3years /2years (range: 1/3 cautious;5/1 favorable). Window ends when alternative implementation catches up; not full asset life. Lag is discounted. No permanent benefit from plan adoption. Very low, analyst prior rather than observed local effect.
- SVBC causal share
- .1 (range: .03–.25). Joint expected contribution of this annual-budget work cohort: includes the probability the changed design is actually built and its share beyond agencies, other advocates, and SVBC's own past/future funded work. Future SVBC effort is not free. This coefficient is not total multiyear SVBC credit; realization is embedded here rather than multiplied again. Unverified judgment. Very low, analyst prior rather than observed local effect.
- Additional response to ordinary gift
- .3 (range: 0–.6). Budget-level substitution/capacity and portfolio-allocation judgment, separate from organization contribution. Very low, analyst prior rather than observed local effect.
- Finite remaining life10years, utility.8, hazard.03
- Derived discounted finite QALYs (range: 5–15years, utility.7–.85, hazard.05–.02). Analyst health-state/remaining-life priors; no age-specific local crash-survivor estimate. Integrate utility×exp(−(hazard+ln1.03)t). Very low, analyst prior rather than observed local effect.
- Nonfatal injury loss avoided
- .2 utility for1year (range: .1×.5year to.3×2years). Serious injuries only, disjoint from deaths; injury-level severity/duration unobserved locally. Discount integral, not hospital bills as health. Very low, analyst prior rather than observed local effect.
- Bay resident-health fraction
- .95 (range: .9–.98). Local project geography does not prove every affected user is a Bay resident. Very low, analyst prior rather than observed local effect.
Illustrative$1,000; calculator capped$10,000, no scaling assurance
- funding_null: No finite positive price per10; weight0.25. Signed Bay Q0; gross portfolio Q2.6977194225994205; finite Q/death6.027813227353146; Q/nonfatal injury0.19707302991659523; discounted exposure years2.706034029930002.
- implementation_null: No finite positive price per10; weight0.2. Signed Bay Q0; gross portfolio Q0; finite Q/death6.027813227353146; Q/nonfatal injury0.19707302991659523; discounted exposure years2.706034029930002.
- adverse_design: No finite positive price per10; weight0.1. Signed Bay Q-0.000010418485204231772; gross portfolio Q-0.6744298556498551; finite Q/death6.027813227353146; Q/nonfatal injury0.19707302991659523; discounted exposure years2.706034029930002.
- cautious: $173,135,758,827 per10; weight0.2. Signed Bay Q5.775814348093055e-8; gross portfolio Q0.0394663105757598; finite Q/death2.887671958266004; Q/nonfatal injury0.04963232852205152; discounted exposure years0.901748698058139.
- central: $239,958,108 per10; weight0.2. Signed Bay Q0.00004167394081692709; gross portfolio Q2.6977194225994205; finite Q/death6.027813227353146; Q/nonfatal injury0.19707302991659523; discounted exposure years2.706034029930002.
- favorable: $1,960,219 per10; weight0.05. Signed Bay Q0.005101471579409621; gross portfolio Q64.02582818599483; finite Q/death8.995827338651775; Q/nonfatal injury0.5826091030058568; discounted exposure years4.512683857556172.
- half_risk: $76,225,883 per10. Signed expected Bay Q0.00013118903512106974; full diagnostic matrix saved, no probability assigned.
- half_attribution: $76,225,883 per10. Signed expected Bay Q0.00013118903512106974; full diagnostic matrix saved, no probability assigned.
- full_cash_response: $22,244,568 per10. Signed expected Bay Q0.0004495479467143045; full diagnostic matrix saved, no probability assigned.
- one_year_advantage: $176,712,832 per10. Signed expected Bay Q0.000056588986204804135; full diagnostic matrix saved, no probability assigned.
- double_resources: $76,225,883 per10. Signed expected Bay Q0.00013118903512106974; full diagnostic matrix saved, no probability assigned.
- no_adverse_world: $37,962,201 per10. Signed expected Bay Q0.0002634199187625627; full diagnostic matrix saved, no probability assigned.
Uncertainty. Exposure integral runs from implementation lag through lag+advantage years; per-event health is additionally finite, up to15years after avoided fatality and2years after injury in default worlds. Fatal and nonfatal outcomes do not overlap. No causal local before/after outcome or incremental retained-cyclist count identified. Values are research priors, not actuarial precision. Attribution includes implementation realization and dilution by SVBC's own separately funded past/future work. One annual budget does not purchase all multiyear advocacy or guarantee construction.
5. Funding and previous grants
HOLD giving recommendation. Need the particular unresolved design/timing decision, its injury baseline, SVBC contribution and dated additional work an unrestricted gift would purchase.
VTA ABC public plan already has$880,000 funding ($695,200 Caltrans plus$184,800 local match), with concepts/cost estimates scheduledSeptember2026 and final planSpring2027. SVBC August2026 restructuring offers local-team support and microgrant review fromOctober; it does not establish an unfunded construction tranche. Existing annual return includes large regional event activity; all of it stays costed. Ask (1) which still-open design/timing decision extra staff work changes; (2) site-specific baseline risk, alternative design/date and partner commitments; (3) additional work purchasable with$1,000 beyond current resources and what happens if no gift. No verified giving checkout reviewed; donationUrl omitted.
This review does not establish a verified marginal funding offer or a complete history of grants.
We have not verified a suitable donation route for this reviewed activity. Confirm the legal recipient and intended allocation before donating.
6. Sources
- FY2025 Form990, EIN77-0338658. SVBC / IRS return hosted by ProPublica. Primary. Published: Year endedJune2025; filed2026-05-11; retrieved: 2026-09-11.
- El Camino Real2030 campaign and corridor inventory. SVBC. Primary. Published: Undated; retrieved: 2026-09-11.
- Scaling the Bike Movement: Empowering Local Teams to Lead. SVBC. Primary. Published: 2026-08-04; retrieved: 2026-09-11.
- Across Barrier Connections Plan: scope, schedule and funding. VTA. Primary. Published: Current page; dates refer to2025–2027 schedule; retrieved: 2026-09-11.
- SR82 completion and safety features. Caltrans. Primary. Published: 2025-10-06; retrieved: 2026-09-11.
- Route Infrastructure and the Risk of Injuries to Bicyclists: A Case-Crossover Study. Teschke et al.. Primary. Published: 2012; retrieved: 2026-09-11.
- Not all protected bike lanes are the same. Cicchino et al.. Primary. Published: 2020; primary publisher search abstract retrieved, full page failed; retrieved: 2026-09-11.
- June17,2025 board packet, Bike to Health proposed metrics p306. El Camino Healthcare District. Primary. Published: 2025-06-17; retrieved: 2026-09-11.
Annual expenses: years and sources
Average annual expenses (three consecutive fiscal years): $1,943,296. Organization size is separate from the modeled cost-effectiveness of a donation.
Silicon Valley Bicycle Coalition
Form 990/990-EZ reported whole-entity expenses; includes program, administration and fundraising costs, but excludes any costs netted against revenue.
Latest original return and prior-year comparative combined with earlier filing data.