Summary
What do they do? The modeled pathway is a defined cohort of LGBTQ+ job seekers receiving employment support during one reporting year. The Center currently offers weekly drop-ins, career fairs, employer partnership work, and a Trans Employment Program; enrollment for individualized coaching is paused. A recommendation-grade pathway would identify service intensity and follow every eligible participant, including people who do not obtain a placement. More
Why this approach interests us
- Affirming coaching, job-search support, career fairs, referrals, and employer partnerships may reduce information, network, confidence, and discrimination-related barriers for LGBTQ+ job seekers.
Our main reservations
- The published placement count lacks a comparison group, service-intensity reconciliation, wage definition, retention, and earnings follow-up; external employment-service effects are small and uncertain on average.
What do you get for your dollar?
The Center reports supporting 400+ LGBTQ+ job seekers and helping 30+ people secure living-wage employment in 2024. Its audit assigns $1.3M to the broader Economic Development family. If 25% of reported placements were additional because of the Center, the conditional midpoint would be about $171,768 per additional placement. A separate, heavily discounted transfer from a randomized employment-and-utility trial produces a very-low-confidence central estimate of about $168.3M per 10 QALYs. A null effect remains plausible.
- gross reported benchmark
- ≈ $42,900 — broad Economic Development allocation per reported 2024 living-wage placement; not causal
- conditional midpoint
- ≈ $172,000 — per additional placement if 25% of reported placements were Center-attributable
- cost per better life
- ≈ $168M — per 10 QALYs; very-low-confidence employment and health-utility transfer
- funding room
- Not published — individual coaching enrollment is currently paused
1. What do they do?
The modeled pathway is a defined cohort of LGBTQ+ job seekers receiving employment support during one reporting year. The Center currently offers weekly drop-ins, career fairs, employer partnership work, and a Trans Employment Program; enrollment for individualized coaching is paused. A recommendation-grade pathway would identify service intensity and follow every eligible participant, including people who do not obtain a placement.
Enroll a defined cohort
Record eligibility, baseline employment and earnings, service history, and whether the participant receives drop-in, workshop, career-fair, or individualized support.
Deliver a specified service dose
Separate light-touch resume or interview help from ongoing coaching, referrals, training, and employer-facing work.
Observe employment
Verify wage, hours, benefits, start date, occupation, and whether the role satisfies a pre-specified living-wage threshold.
Measure retention and earnings
Follow every participant at 6 and 12 months and compare employment and earnings against a credible phased or matched counterfactual.
Scope of this review. The model covers employment support and one additional living-wage placement within the reporting year. It excludes financial counseling, homeownership, small-business services, youth programs, community events, employer culture change, and any unmeasured retention or earnings benefit.
2. Monitoring and information sharing
LGBTQ+ job seekers using drop-ins, workshops, mentorship, and one-to-one employment support in 2024
Organization-reported annual cohort. The Center reports 400+ job seekers supported and 30+ community members securing living-wage employment.
Our assessment. This establishes a dated output and outcome floor, not unique service intensity, the wage threshold, retention, a comparison rate, or Center attribution. The current program page instead shows 300+ supported and 92 placements without a reporting period, so the two counters are not combined.
The Center's FY2024 Economic Development program family
Independent financial audit. The audit allocates $1.288 million to Economic Development within $4.986 million of total program services; government grants supplied $3.624 million, or 55% of total revenue.
Our assessment. Economic Development includes employment, financial, housing, and small-business services. It is not an employment-program cost, marginal quote, or evidence that private funding is additional to public funding.
107 youth employment interventions across 31 countries, including ten employment-service interventions
Systematic review of experimental and quasi-experimental studies. Average employment and earnings effects were small and heterogeneous; employment-service effects were negligible or statistically insignificant.
Our assessment. The review is not LGBTQ+-specific and includes different ages, countries, and program designs. It supports a plausible null case and component-level evaluation, not a numerical effect for the Center.
248 self-selected community members participating through surveys, focus groups, and interviews in 2024–2025
Center-commissioned formative evaluation. Participants described safety, connection, improved skills and confidence, and some hiring at career fairs; the work produced a theory of change and learning plan.
Our assessment. The evaluation is useful for mechanism and measurement design but has no counterfactual, program-specific cost, retained-employment outcome, or donor attribution.
3. Qualitative assessment
Affirming coaching, job-search support, career fairs, referrals, and employer partnerships may reduce information, network, confidence, and discrimination-related barriers for LGBTQ+ job seekers.
Key reservations
- The 2024 report's 400+ job seekers and 30+ placements are organization-reported floors, not a reconciled cohort or causal estimate.
- The current Employment Services page shows 300+ people supported and 92 placements without a reporting period; those counters are not mixed with the dated 2024 cohort.
- The audited $1.288 million Economic Development allocation covers employment, financial, housing, and small-business services.
- A placement is not retained employment, earnings gain, job quality, or avoided unemployment.
- The 10%-50% attribution cases are transparent decision scenarios, not empirical confidence bounds.
- The external systematic review found no statistically significant average effect for employment-service interventions and is not Center-specific.
- Individualized coaching enrollment and the newsletter are currently paused, so linear expansion may be operationally impossible.
- Government grants and city contracts overlap program areas; private-funding additionality is unknown.
- The separate approximately $168 million per 10-QALY estimate uses a joint employment/QALY randomized trial only as an arithmetic anchor, then applies explicit discounts for population, program, causal mediation, and placement durability. It is not a measured Center effect; the conditional range is approximately $8.42 million to $11.2 billion, and a null has no finite positive upper bound.
Benefits not included in our estimate
- Employment retention and earnings gains because neither is published for the 2024 placement cohort
- Employer-side inclusion, confidence, social connection, financial counseling, homeownership, and small-business outcomes
- Career-fair attendance, workshops, newsletters, drop-ins, and coaching contacts as if they were durable outcomes
- Economic value of a placement because wage, hours, duration, taxes, benefits, and the counterfactual earnings path are unknown
- Earnings, taxes, benefits, financial stability, and employer productivity because wage, hours, retention, and counterfactual earnings are unpublished
- Confidence, social connection, discrimination reduction, housing stability, and employer-side inclusion outside the transferred EQ-5D result
- Youth, financial counseling, homeownership, small-business, community-event, and other Center program benefits
- Family, caregiver, employer, public-budget, and community spillovers
4. What do you get for your dollar?
About $172,000 per additional placement in a 25%-attribution scenario—not an empirical effect estimate.
We divide the audited FY2024 Economic Development allocation by the 30-placement reporting floor, then vary the share of reported placements that might be additional because of the Center. The full allocation includes employment, financial, housing, and small-business work, so the $42,942 gross benchmark is only a reconciliation check. The 10%, 25%, and 50% attribution cases are explicit decision scenarios, not confidence bounds. Current program counters use a different, undated denominator and are not mixed into the model.
A better life is our comparison unit of 10 additional quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), potentially spread across people. These are uncertain estimates, not measured returns or verified donation offers.
How we calculate the estimate
CONDITIONAL COST PER ADDITIONAL LIVING-WAGE PLACEMENT: $1,288,262 ÷ (30 × 25%)
= $171,768
Model inputs and assumptions
- FY2024 Economic Development allocation
- $1,288,262 (range: $1,288,262–$1,288,262). Audited functional expense. It includes employment, financial, housing, and small-business work and is not an employment-program budget or marginal quote. high for accounting; low for employment allocation.
- 2024 job seekers receiving employment support
- 400+ people (range: 400+ people–400+ people). The 2024 Year in Review reports 400+ job seekers receiving drop-in, workshop, mentorship, and one-to-one support. We use the published floor; service intensity and unique-participant reconciliation are not reported. moderate for organization-reported floor.
- 2024 reported living-wage placements
- 30+ placements (range: 30+ placements–30+ placements). The 2024 Year in Review reports 30+ community members securing living-wage employment. The wage threshold, retention, service pathway, comparison rate, and attribution are unpublished. low.
- Conditional share of reported placements that was additional
- 25% (range: 10%–50%). MFI decision scenarios, not evidence estimates. The range asks what the accounting would imply if 10%, 25%, or 50% of reported placements were additional because of the Center. A null effect remains plausible because the Center has no comparison group and a systematic review found employment-service effects negligible or statistically insignificant on average. very low.
What would $100,000 imply if the model were linear?
- Favorable positive attribution: 1.16 additional placements. 50% of the reported cohort treated as additional · $85.9K per outcome
- MFI midpoint scenario: 0.58 additional placements. 25% of the reported cohort treated as additional · $171.8K per outcome
- Small positive attribution: 0.23 additional placements. 10% of the reported cohort treated as additional · $429.4K per outcome
Uncertainty. The numeric range is conditional on some positive Center-attributable effect. The Center has not published a comparison rate, retained-employment follow-up, earnings change, or program-level cost. The external systematic review found employment-service effects negligible or statistically insignificant on average. If the Center did not change placement probability, or a gift replaced public or restricted funding, additional placements approach zero and no finite positive cost-effectiveness estimate exists.
Our current best estimate: about $168 million per better life (10 QALYs).
Publish an explicit, very-low-confidence decision estimate of approximately $168 million per 10 QALYs. The closest joint employment-and-utility randomized evidence found a 4.9-percentage-point employment gain and 0.01 incremental QALY per participant over 18 months for intensive Individual Placement and Support in adults receiving alcohol or drug treatment. Dividing those trial effects implies 0.204 QALY per additional job start only if all QALY change is assigned to the employment effect. MFI retains 10% of that ratio for population, program, mediation, and instrument transfer and then retains 50% for unknown Center placement durability, yielding 0.0102 QALY per modeled additional placement. Combined with the native $171,768 conditional placement price, the central comparison price is approximately $168 million per better life. The conditional positive-effect range is approximately $8.42 million to $11.2 billion; a true null, harm, or funding displacement remains plausible. This is a best-effort donor estimate, not a measured Center effect, verified marginal price, rank, or funding recommendation.
EXPLORATORY COST PER 10 QALYS · ONE BETTER LIFE: $171,768 ÷ 0.010204 QALY × 10
= $168.3M
QALY conversion assumptions
- Conditional cost per additional placement
- $171,768 (range: $85,884–$429,421). The native v0.1 model divides the broad FY2024 Economic Development allocation by 30 reported placements and assumes 25% are additional in the central scenario. The 10%–50% attribution cases are judgmental, not evidence estimates; the numerator includes non-employment services and is not a marginal price. very low as a causal or marginal price.
- Trial absolute employment effect
- 4.9% (range: 24.8% control → 29.7% IPS). The trial jointly estimates intervention effects on any employment during 18 months and EQ-5D-5L QALYs; it does not establish that employment mediated the QALY gain. Participants had diagnosed substance dependence and received intensive integrated IPS. The Center serves a broader LGBTQ+ population through a different, incompletely specified service mix, so neither the trial effect nor the implied QALY-per-job ratio is directly transferable. moderate for the trial; very low for transfer.
- Trial incremental QALY per participant
- 0.01 (range: 0.003–0.02). Measured over 1.5 years. The trial jointly estimates intervention effects on any employment during 18 months and EQ-5D-5L QALYs; it does not establish that employment mediated the QALY gain. Participants had diagnosed substance dependence and received intensive integrated IPS. The Center serves a broader LGBTQ+ population through a different, incompletely specified service mix, so neither the trial effect nor the implied QALY-per-job ratio is directly transferable. low for the trial; very low for transfer.
- Arithmetic QALY per additional job-start anchor
- 0.2 (range: 0.06–0.41). Trial incremental QALY per participant divided by the 4.9-percentage-point complete-case employment difference. This ratio is an arithmetic joint-outcome anchor, not a causal mediation estimate or a QALY weight for employment. not a mediation estimate.
- Program, population, and mediation transfer retained
- 10% (range: 2.5%–25%). The midpoint retains 10% because the trial used intensive integrated IPS in adults with substance dependence, while the Center reports a mixed service bundle and a broad LGBTQ+ population; employment may not mediate the trial QALY gain. This is a judgment range. judgmental.
- Placement durability retained
- 50% (range: 25%–100%). The Center reports job starts without 6- or 12-month retention, hours, benefits, or earnings. The midpoint gives half credit relative to the trial's 18-month observation window; this is a decision assumption, not measured retention. judgmental.
- Optimistic positive transfer: $8.4M. $85,884 per additional placement · 0.102041 QALY each
- Central transfer-discounted estimate: $168.3M. $171,768 per additional placement · 0.010204 QALY each
- Cautious positive transfer: $11.2B. $429,421 per additional placement · 0.000383 QALY each
The numeric range is conditional on a positive Center-attributable placement effect, a positive transferable health-utility relationship, placement durability, and donor additionality. The Center has no causal comparison or retention data; the external trial's QALY gain was not shown to be mediated by employment; individualized coaching is paused; and no marginal funding plan is published. If the Center does not change placement probability, employment produces no health-utility gain for this population, QALY change is transient or adverse, placements do not persist, or a gift displaces public or restricted funding, the impact price has no finite positive upper bound.
5. Funding and previous grants
The Center has not published an employment-specific budget, a dated marginal funding gap, unique participant cohorts, 6- and 12-month job retention and earnings, or evidence that a private gift adds services rather than replacing public or restricted funding.
The $100,000 scenario is illustrative and linear. Individualized coaching enrollment is currently paused, the Career Connections newsletter is paused until Fall 2026, government grants supplied 55% of FY2024 revenue, and five exact city-contract matches overlap service areas. The Center has not published an employment-specific budget, committed funding, remaining gap, staffing or employer capacity, placement forecast, or displacement analysis for the next gift.
This review does not establish a verified marginal funding offer or a complete history of grants.
Opens the organization’s giving page. A general donation may not fund the specific activity modeled here; confirm allocation with the recipient.
6. Sources
- 2024 Year in Review. SF LGBT Center. organization-reported annual review. Published: 2025-03; retrieved: 2026-08-31.
- FY2024 audited financial statements. SF LGBT Center / independent auditors. independent audit. Published: 2024-12-20; retrieved: 2026-08-31.
- Employment Services. SF LGBT Center. current organization program page. Published: Publication date not stated; retrieved: 2026-08-31.
- Interventions to improve the labour market outcomes of youth. Campbell Collaboration. systematic review. Published: 2017-12-04; retrieved: 2026-08-31.
- 2025 Evaluation & Learning Summary. SF LGBT Center and Intention 2 Impact. organization-commissioned formative evaluation. Published: 2026-01; retrieved: 2026-08-31.
- Superiority and cost-effectiveness of Individual Placement and Support versus standard employment support for people with alcohol and drug dependence. The Lancet Regional Health – Europe. peer-reviewed pragmatic randomized controlled trial and economic evaluation. Published: 2023-11-17; retrieved: 2026-09-01.
- Individual Placement and Support – Alcohol and Drug study: main findings. UK Office for Health Improvement and Disparities. official trial findings and linked-employment denominator. Published: 2024-01-16; retrieved: 2026-09-01.
- Employment Interventions in Health Settings: A Systematic Review and Synthesis. Annals of Family Medicine. peer-reviewed systematic review. Published: 2018; retrieved: 2026-08-31.
- Economic analyses of supported employment programmes for people with mental health conditions: A systematic review. Epidemiology and Psychiatric Sciences. peer-reviewed systematic review of economic evaluations. Published: 2022; retrieved: 2026-08-31.
Annual expenses: years and sources
Average annual expenses (three consecutive fiscal years): $6,659,029. Organization size is separate from the modeled cost-effectiveness of a donation.
San Francisco Lesbian Gay Bisexual Transgender Community Center
Whole legal entity Form 990 Part IX total functional expenses; latest original reconstructed filings checked, fiscal-end year from printed reporting dates. Older fallback rows from IRS extracted API.
Latest original filings checked; ProPublica extracted API lags these original returns.