Summary
What do they do? A proposed 13-pickup course through community partners. This dose is a modeling assumption, not a verified schedule at every site. Compare with existing food, benefits and alternative pantries, not starvation. More
Why this approach interests us
- Additional assistance may improve food security beyond what existing services provide.
Our main reservations
- The pathway from assistance to incremental health contains judgmental causal, duration and financing assumptions. A zero health effect remains plausible.
What do you get for your dollar?
Our best guess is $64,596,273 per better life—10 incremental QALYs. This is an exploratory program model, not measured organization-wide effectiveness. Inspect the model →
- best guess
- $64,596,273 — USD per 10 incremental QALYs; very low confidence
- positive scenarios
- $322,061–$90,434,782,609 — Joint assumptions, not confidence bounds
- geography
- Santa Clara and San Mateo; not San Francisco city — Kept separate from SF-city recommendations
- funding room
- Unverified — Not a current restricted donation offer
1. What do they do?
A proposed 13-pickup course through community partners. This dose is a modeling assumption, not a verified schedule at every site. Compare with existing food, benefits and alternative pantries, not starvation.
Define the extra service
One food-insecure household offered a six-month course
Price the actual bottleneck
Reconcile existing public, private and partner resources before attributing delivery to a new gift.
Test incremental health
Measure outcomes against existing alternatives, including burdens and potential harms.
Scope of this review. Santa Clara and San Mateo; not San Francisco city
2. Monitoring and information sharing
One food-insecure household offered a six-month course
External studies and local program disclosures. Freshplace randomized 228 adults to client-choice pantry plus motivational interviewing and referrals, versus conventional pantry care. It supports food-security improvement from a bundle, not a measured grocery-only effect here. The .023 utility anchor is an observational insecure-versus-secure contrast; 35% of modeled exits from very low food security are assumed to reach the study secure category.
Our assessment. No local randomized QALY estimate. All local transfer and donor additionality coefficients are explicit judgments.
3. Qualitative assessment
Additional assistance may improve food security beyond what existing services provide.
Key reservations
- Food access, dignity and purchasing power have value not fully captured by this narrow health ledger.
- Do not add food-bank and downstream partner effects for the same household.
- The favorable case does not establish an available or cost-effective marginal gift.
Benefits not included in our estimate
- Unmodeled child development and mortality
- Public benefits converted directly into QALYs
- Whole-organization reach
- Unverified healthcare savings
4. What do you get for your dollar?
$64,596,273 per 10 QALYs
Freshplace randomized 228 adults to client-choice pantry plus motivational interviewing and referrals, versus conventional pantry care. It supports food-security improvement from a bundle, not a measured grocery-only effect here. The .023 utility anchor is an observational insecure-versus-secure contrast; 35% of modeled exits from very low food security are assumed to reach the study secure category. The .023 observational utility contrast compares USDA adult responses 0–2 (food secure, including marginal security) with 3+ (insecure). Favorable one-year health duration assumes persistence beyond the six-month course without further paid treatment; it is not demonstrated by that course.
A better life is our comparison unit of 10 additional quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), potentially spread across people. These are uncertain estimates, not measured returns or verified donation offers.
How we calculate the estimate
INSPECTABLE HEALTH BRIDGE: Q = financing × (exit probability × secure share × adult equivalents × utility × transfer × effective years − harm); price = 10 × donor cost / Q when Q > 0
$64,596,273
Model inputs and assumptions
- utility
- 0.023 (range: 0.023 / 0.023 / 0.023). Favorable / central / pessimistic. The full combination is a scenario, not a confidence interval. Source anchor or analyst judgment; see evidence below.
- harmQalys
- 0 (range: 0 / 0 / 0). Favorable / central / pessimistic. The full combination is a scenario, not a confidence interval. Source anchor or analyst judgment; see evidence below.
- cost
- 325 (range: 150 / 325 / 650). Favorable / central / pessimistic. The full combination is a scenario, not a confidence interval. Source anchor or analyst judgment; see evidence below.
- exitProbability
- 0.05 (range: 0.15 / 0.05 / 0.01). Favorable / central / pessimistic. The full combination is a scenario, not a confidence interval. Source anchor or analyst judgment; see evidence below.
- secureShare
- 0.35 (range: 0.75 / 0.35 / 0.1). Favorable / central / pessimistic. The full combination is a scenario, not a confidence interval. Source anchor or analyst judgment; see evidence below.
- adults
- 1 (range: 2 / 1 / 0.5). Favorable / central / pessimistic. The full combination is a scenario, not a confidence interval. Source anchor or analyst judgment; see evidence below.
- transfer
- 0.5 (range: 1 / 0.5 / 0.25). Favorable / central / pessimistic. The full combination is a scenario, not a confidence interval. Source anchor or analyst judgment; see evidence below.
- effectiveYears
- 0.5 (range: 1 / 0.5 / 0.25). Favorable / central / pessimistic. The full combination is a scenario, not a confidence interval. Source anchor or analyst judgment; see evidence below.
- fundingAdditionality
- 0.5 (range: 0.9 / 0.5 / 0.1). Favorable / central / pessimistic. The full combination is a scenario, not a confidence interval. Source anchor or analyst judgment; see evidence below.
Constructed course costs—not a verified funding tranche
- Favorable: $322,061 per 10 QALYs. 0.004657 QALY per modeled unit. Maximum cost to reach $100K/10Q: $46.57
- Central: $64,596,273 per 10 QALYs. 0.00005031 QALY per modeled unit. Maximum cost to reach $100K/10Q: $0.50
- Pessimistic positive: $90,434,782,609 per 10 QALYs. 7.188e-8 QALY per modeled unit. Maximum cost to reach $100K/10Q: $0.00
Uncertainty. No extra delivery or no causal health improvement gives no finite positive impact price. Harm can outweigh benefit. Financing multiplies both added benefit and harm; unchanged delivery does not create new harm.
5. Funding and previous grants
No additional-course offer verified. Existing public commodities, reserves, donated inventory and partner sites may fund the same service. A warehouse capital campaign is not this course.
Central $325 = 13 × ($10 purchased food + $15 logistics/staff/overhead). These are judgmental marginal allowances, not audited unit costs. An expanded resource illustration is $1,040, including $585 donated-food opportunity value and $130 partner/volunteer/participant time. It is not a complete societal incremental cost. No additional-course offer verified. Existing public commodities, reserves, donated inventory and partner sites may fund the same service. A warehouse capital campaign is not this course.
This review does not establish a verified marginal funding offer or a complete history of grants.
We have not verified a suitable donation route for this reviewed activity. Confirm the legal recipient and intended allocation before donating.
6. Sources
- Provider audited accounts. Primary source. Primary program, funding or research evidence. Published: FY2025; retrieved: 2026-09-07.
- Freshplace randomized trial. Primary source. Primary program, funding or research evidence. Published: 2013; retrieved: 2026-09-07.
- Food security and utility study. Primary source. Primary program, funding or research evidence. Published: 2023; retrieved: 2026-09-07.
Annual expenses: years and sources
Average annual expenses (three consecutive fiscal years): Not available. Organization size is separate from the modeled cost-effectiveness of a donation.
Second Harvest of Silicon Valley
Three years of organization-level expenses have not yet been verified for this report. No other organization or fiscal sponsor budget has been substituted.