GiveBetter x California

Youth ALIVE!

Violence prevention, hospital intervention and trauma healing

Research time: ~9 min on GPT-6 Astra Light + ~7 min on GPT-6 Astra Medium + ~16 min on GPT-6.1 Sol
  • Research — reviewed programs, finances and impact evidence.

Updated: 2026-10-01

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Summary

What do they do? Youth ALIVE! works with people affected by violence in Oakland and Alameda County. Its programs combine hospital-based support, employment and education assistance, trauma counseling, and violence prevention. Staff help participants recover, navigate services, and pursue safer, more stable lives.

Why we’re interested in this organization:

  • Hospital-based outreach offers a practical route to reach injured people at a vulnerable moment.

  • Counseling, employment support, and compensation navigation offer distinct pathways to improved health and household resources.

  • Recent original financial returns and program-specific output reports allow costs and activities to be examined together.

Our main reservations:

  • Local outcome reports do not establish how much reinjury, clinical recovery, or income would change without these services.

  • The conditional estimate covers only selected clinical and resource pathways; prevention, interruption, family, and policy effects remain unquantified.

  • Current program denominators conflict, and no costed plan establishes how additional donations would expand services beyond existing public and private funding.

What do you get for your dollar? $47.6M per DALY in California. DALY is our one-year comparison unit. QALY-based health gains and income-welfare equivalents retain their original assumptions; they are not measured clinical DALYs. Conditional partial clinical and household-resource portfolio estimate.

Reported CiC and Pathways participants; violent reinjury and mortality; counseling clinical response; additional net job resources and compensation-enabled household resources. Applications, contacts, fiscal justice savings and non-reinjury rates are not measured causal health or income gains.

1. What do they do?

Caught in the Crossfire sends community intervention specialists to survivors' hospital bedsides and provides ongoing practical support. Pathways combines mentoring with employment and education assistance. Counseling Services provides free community-based trauma care. Youth ALIVE!'s broader portfolio also includes violence interruption, Teens on Target, homicide-family support and advocacy. The quantified direct-service footprint is Oakland/Alameda; statewide policy, national replication and other unquantified effects are discussed separately rather than assigned a population multiplier.

2. Monitoring and information sharing

Current results report 118 CiC clients in 2025 and 96% without reported reinjury, alongside overlapping program activity. Neither figure is a causal injury reduction; citywide homicide trends cannot be assigned to this recipient. The 2020 CalVIP local evaluation documents missing data and loss to follow-up; only 24 people had initial trauma-symptom assessments and 17 follow-up responses. The larger Mathematica Oakland evaluation explicitly lacks an untreated comparison, so its often-repeated post-program victimization change is not a causal clinical effect. Urban's 2025 multi-provider school evaluation had too few shooting/homicide outcomes to estimate that effect reliably. The next monitoring step is a residence-linked referral-to-completion ledger with comparable injury severity and validated utility follow-up, including people not served.

The current Pathways program page reports 74 participants, while the results page reports 72; both report 16 new jobs. Counseling reports 91 client/family units. The model reserves 31 CiC and 18 Pathways counseling overlaps, leaving 42 analytical units before funding scale; this is not an observed count of unique independent clients. Compensation reporting describes applications, not verified incremental awards. These conflicts and causal gaps are retained explicitly.

3. Qualitative assessment

The local Becker 2004 and Shibru 2007 matched retrospective studies did not detect a significant reinjury or death reduction; Shibru's juvenile-justice finding and detention savings are not health QALYs. These small studies do not prove no effect. A 2026 systematic review pooled ten studies and favored hospital violence intervention for violent reinjury (OR 0.60, 95% CI 0.38–0.94), but evidence quality was low and heterogeneity substantial. That supports a plausible mechanism, not transfer to every current Oakland participant or a new unrestricted gift.

The old health anchor is Chong's Markov model, evaluated in NICE's evidence table. Its 4.64 versus 4.62 five-year QALYs are modeled, not observed participant utility, and rounded to only two decimals. NICE rated the analysis partially applicable with potentially serious limitations and no apparent probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Published payer-cost and ICER figures conflict across records. The retained scenarios are historical diagnostics; neither the short horizon nor a subjective transfer discount turns them into a current donor-effect estimate.

4. What do you get for your dollar?

GiveBetter estimates approximately $47.6M per DALY for the clinical and household-resource pathways quantified here. This is a conditional, partial-portfolio comparison, not a complete valuation of Youth ALIVE!'s work or a quoted expansion opportunity. A DALY means one modeled equivalent year; income-equivalent years are a welfare comparison, not measured clinical QALYs.

What does additional funding support? The model scales current outputs against FY2025 gross expenses of $7,831,321, allowing 35% of proportional funding to produce additional activity. An illustrative $100,000 therefore corresponds to about 0.53 additional CiC client-equivalents, 0.33 Pathways participant-equivalents, and 0.19 analytically independent counseling units. These are planning quantities, not an available purchase or unique people who can be summed. Prevention, interruption and other unquantified work remain charged in the cost base.

How could these services improve lives? CiC support may reduce recurrent violence; trauma counseling may improve clinical recovery; Pathways may help participants obtain jobs; compensation navigation may release household resources. The historical local Markov model used a 4% untreated one-year reinjury risk. We use that as a transferred input and judge a net relative risk of 0.8, rather than treating the observed 96% non-reinjury rate as a causal effect. Nonfatal loss, fatal survival and counseling benefits have separate finite trajectories. The resulting health estimate is 0.00 California QALYs per illustrative budget.

Income and overlap. The 16 reported jobs are descriptive. We attribute a quarter of scaled placements to the added services, with a $3,000 annual net household gain lasting half a year. Compensation uses the 60 reported applications, not assumed awards; success, navigation incrementality and a $500 one-off net resource gain are judgments. After timing, household allocation and positive-benefit overlap exclusions, these pathways contribute 0.00 income-equivalent years. Baseline resources are assumed to be $25,000 per household. Benefits, taxes, work costs and payer offsets belong in net gains; gross wages, public spending and baseline survivor earnings are not added.

Why the estimate changed. The historical illustration was $2.7M per DALY. It combined subjective scenario weights with a partial historical contract cost and a rounded five-year QALY difference from a model. The current calculation uses matched current recipient expenses/output and reconstructs clinical effects explicitly, while adding income once. The narrower quantified benefit relative to the full cost base makes this estimate substantially less favorable. Targeted expansion could be cheaper, and omitted effects could be important; neither can be priced confidently from current evidence.

The current scenarios test funding and capacity nulls, alternative injury/counseling effects, finite job durations, household baselines, and signed resource harms. They are unweighted judgment cases, not a confidence interval. Full historical scenarios remain preserved separately.

Model, assumptions and sensitivity

Proportional additional funding of the recipient's current portfolio using FY2025 gross expenses. All portfolio costs remain in the denominator; only specified clinical and household-resource pathways are quantified. An illustrative budget normalizes the calculation and is not a verified donation tranche.

Quantified direct-service benefits occur in Oakland/Alameda, so central California health and income shares are each 1. These shares are independently varied. No headquarters/population multiplier or unmodeled statewide policy benefit is credited.

Shared scale=min(gift/expense*funding,capacityScale). Clinical effects integrate finite nonfatal injury, fatal survival, and allocated independent counseling trajectories. Income uses 0.5*people*log(1+net gain/baseline) with finite timing, causal, geography and overlap shares. Price=donor cost/(California health+income equivalent years+signed independent burdens), only if total is positive.

gift
100000 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
expense
7831321 USD annual gross recipient expenses (observed). FY2025 original Form 990 functional expenses plus direct fundraising-event costs netted against revenue; matched to 2025 output vintage. [99025]
funding
0.35 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
capacityScale
0.05 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
cicAnnual
118 reported 2025 CiC clients (observed). 118 served clients, not 118 additional intensive completed courses. [cic] [results]
pathwaysAnnual
74 reported 2025 Pathways participants (observed). Dedicated page reports 74; results page reports 72. The latter is retained as a sensitivity. [youth-pathways] [results]
counselingAnnual
91 reported client/family units (observed). 91 reported units, not measured unique adults or families of uniform size. [youth-counseling]
cicCounseling
31 reported counseling overlaps (observed). 31 CiC counseling users reserved against the counseling-unit pool. [cic] [results]
pathwaysCounseling
18 reported counseling overlaps (observed). 18 Pathways counseling users reserved; subtracting both sets is an analytical exclusion, not an observed unique residual. [youth-pathways]
intensiveCompletion
0.8 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
injuryRisk
0.04 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
injuryRR
0.8 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
nonfatalGap
0.15 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
nonfatalYears
1 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
fatalShare
0.02 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
survivalUtility
0.85 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
survivalYears
5 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
competingMortality
0.01 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
delay
0.125 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
discount
0.03 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
counselingGap
0.5 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
counselingResponse
0.3 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
counselingUtility
0.05 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
counselingYears
0.5 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
jobsAnnual
16 reported new jobs (observed). 16 descriptive placements, not a causal employment effect or measured wage gain. [youth-pathways] [results]
jobCausal
0.25 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
jobNetAnnual
3000 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
jobYears
0.5 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
jobDelay
0.625 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
applicationsAnnual
60 reported compensation applications (observed). 60 applications, not 60 successful awards. [cic] [results]
awardSuccess
0.5 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
navigationCausal
0.25 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
netAward
500 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
awardIndependent
0.75 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
receiptDelay
0.625 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
householdShare
0.9 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
baseline
25000 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
healthCA
1 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
incomeCA
1 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
burdenCA
1 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
assignment
1 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
inducedApplicants
0 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
applicantLoss
0 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
independentHealthHarm
0 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
fee
0 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.
externalPerCourse
0 Explicit model parameter; see formula and cost discussion (judgment). Analyst planning judgment, not a measured local causal coefficient; varied where material in named cases.

Conditional partial-portfolio central: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. {"gift":100000,"expense":7831321,"funding":0.35,"capacityScale":0.05,"cicAnnual":118,"pathwaysAnnual":74,"counselingAnnual":91,"cicCounseling":31,"pathwaysCounseling":18,"intensiveCompletion":0.8,"injuryRisk":0.04,"injuryRR":0.8,"nonfatalGap":0.15,"nonfatalYears":1,"fatalShare":0.02,"survivalUtility":0.85,"survivalYears":5,"competingMortality":0.01,"delay":0.125,"discount":0.03,"counselingGap":0.5,"counselingResponse":0.3,"counselingUtility":0.05,"counselingYears":0.5,"jobsAnnual":16,"jobCausal":0.25,"jobNetAnnual":3000,"jobYears":0.5,"jobDelay":0.625,"applicationsAnnual":60,"awardSuccess":0.5,"navigationCausal":0.25,"netAward":500,"awardIndependent":0.75,"receiptDelay":0.625,"householdShare":0.9,"baseline":25000,"healthCA":1,"incomeCA":1,"burdenCA":1,"assignment":1,"inducedApplicants":0,"applicantLoss":0,"independentHealthHarm":0,"fee":0,"externalPerCourse":0}; current outputs are descriptive, and causal/severity/resource coefficients are explicit judgments. These unweighted cases are not empirical confidence bounds.

Mean Expense: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. {"gift":100000,"expense":7208761.333333333,"funding":0.35,"capacityScale":0.05,"cicAnnual":118,"pathwaysAnnual":74,"counselingAnnual":91,"cicCounseling":31,"pathwaysCounseling":18,"intensiveCompletion":0.8,"injuryRisk":0.04,"injuryRR":0.8,"nonfatalGap":0.15,"nonfatalYears":1,"fatalShare":0.02,"survivalUtility":0.85,"survivalYears":5,"competingMortality":0.01,"delay":0.125,"discount":0.03,"counselingGap":0.5,"counselingResponse":0.3,"counselingUtility":0.05,"counselingYears":0.5,"jobsAnnual":16,"jobCausal":0.25,"jobNetAnnual":3000,"jobYears":0.5,"jobDelay":0.625,"applicationsAnnual":60,"awardSuccess":0.5,"navigationCausal":0.25,"netAward":500,"awardIndependent":0.75,"receiptDelay":0.625,"householdShare":0.9,"baseline":25000,"healthCA":1,"incomeCA":1,"burdenCA":1,"assignment":1,"inducedApplicants":0,"applicantLoss":0,"independentHealthHarm":0,"fee":0,"externalPerCourse":0}; current outputs are descriptive, and causal/severity/resource coefficients are explicit judgments. These unweighted cases are not empirical confidence bounds.

Pathways72: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. {"gift":100000,"expense":7831321,"funding":0.35,"capacityScale":0.05,"cicAnnual":118,"pathwaysAnnual":72,"counselingAnnual":91,"cicCounseling":31,"pathwaysCounseling":18,"intensiveCompletion":0.8,"injuryRisk":0.04,"injuryRR":0.8,"nonfatalGap":0.15,"nonfatalYears":1,"fatalShare":0.02,"survivalUtility":0.85,"survivalYears":5,"competingMortality":0.01,"delay":0.125,"discount":0.03,"counselingGap":0.5,"counselingResponse":0.3,"counselingUtility":0.05,"counselingYears":0.5,"jobsAnnual":16,"jobCausal":0.25,"jobNetAnnual":3000,"jobYears":0.5,"jobDelay":0.625,"applicationsAnnual":60,"awardSuccess":0.5,"navigationCausal":0.25,"netAward":500,"awardIndependent":0.75,"receiptDelay":0.625,"householdShare":0.9,"baseline":25000,"healthCA":1,"incomeCA":1,"burdenCA":1,"assignment":1,"inducedApplicants":0,"applicantLoss":0,"independentHealthHarm":0,"fee":0,"externalPerCourse":0}; current outputs are descriptive, and causal/severity/resource coefficients are explicit judgments. These unweighted cases are not empirical confidence bounds.

No Funding: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. {"gift":100000,"expense":7831321,"funding":0,"capacityScale":0.05,"cicAnnual":118,"pathwaysAnnual":74,"counselingAnnual":91,"cicCounseling":31,"pathwaysCounseling":18,"intensiveCompletion":0.8,"injuryRisk":0.04,"injuryRR":0.8,"nonfatalGap":0.15,"nonfatalYears":1,"fatalShare":0.02,"survivalUtility":0.85,"survivalYears":5,"competingMortality":0.01,"delay":0.125,"discount":0.03,"counselingGap":0.5,"counselingResponse":0.3,"counselingUtility":0.05,"counselingYears":0.5,"jobsAnnual":16,"jobCausal":0.25,"jobNetAnnual":3000,"jobYears":0.5,"jobDelay":0.625,"applicationsAnnual":60,"awardSuccess":0.5,"navigationCausal":0.25,"netAward":500,"awardIndependent":0.75,"receiptDelay":0.625,"householdShare":0.9,"baseline":25000,"healthCA":1,"incomeCA":1,"burdenCA":1,"assignment":1,"inducedApplicants":0,"applicantLoss":0,"independentHealthHarm":0,"fee":0,"externalPerCourse":0}; current outputs are descriptive, and causal/severity/resource coefficients are explicit judgments. These unweighted cases are not empirical confidence bounds.

No Assignment: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. {"gift":100000,"expense":7831321,"funding":0.35,"capacityScale":0.05,"cicAnnual":118,"pathwaysAnnual":74,"counselingAnnual":91,"cicCounseling":31,"pathwaysCounseling":18,"intensiveCompletion":0.8,"injuryRisk":0.04,"injuryRR":0.8,"nonfatalGap":0.15,"nonfatalYears":1,"fatalShare":0.02,"survivalUtility":0.85,"survivalYears":5,"competingMortality":0.01,"delay":0.125,"discount":0.03,"counselingGap":0.5,"counselingResponse":0.3,"counselingUtility":0.05,"counselingYears":0.5,"jobsAnnual":16,"jobCausal":0.25,"jobNetAnnual":3000,"jobYears":0.5,"jobDelay":0.625,"applicationsAnnual":60,"awardSuccess":0.5,"navigationCausal":0.25,"netAward":500,"awardIndependent":0.75,"receiptDelay":0.625,"householdShare":0.9,"baseline":25000,"healthCA":1,"incomeCA":1,"burdenCA":1,"assignment":0,"inducedApplicants":0,"applicantLoss":0,"independentHealthHarm":0,"fee":0,"externalPerCourse":0}; current outputs are descriptive, and causal/severity/resource coefficients are explicit judgments. These unweighted cases are not empirical confidence bounds.

No C A: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. {"gift":100000,"expense":7831321,"funding":0.35,"capacityScale":0.05,"cicAnnual":118,"pathwaysAnnual":74,"counselingAnnual":91,"cicCounseling":31,"pathwaysCounseling":18,"intensiveCompletion":0.8,"injuryRisk":0.04,"injuryRR":0.8,"nonfatalGap":0.15,"nonfatalYears":1,"fatalShare":0.02,"survivalUtility":0.85,"survivalYears":5,"competingMortality":0.01,"delay":0.125,"discount":0.03,"counselingGap":0.5,"counselingResponse":0.3,"counselingUtility":0.05,"counselingYears":0.5,"jobsAnnual":16,"jobCausal":0.25,"jobNetAnnual":3000,"jobYears":0.5,"jobDelay":0.625,"applicationsAnnual":60,"awardSuccess":0.5,"navigationCausal":0.25,"netAward":500,"awardIndependent":0.75,"receiptDelay":0.625,"householdShare":0.9,"baseline":25000,"healthCA":0,"incomeCA":0,"burdenCA":0,"assignment":1,"inducedApplicants":0,"applicantLoss":0,"independentHealthHarm":0,"fee":0,"externalPerCourse":0}; current outputs are descriptive, and causal/severity/resource coefficients are explicit judgments. These unweighted cases are not empirical confidence bounds.

Zero Health: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. {"gift":100000,"expense":7831321,"funding":0.35,"capacityScale":0.05,"cicAnnual":118,"pathwaysAnnual":74,"counselingAnnual":91,"cicCounseling":31,"pathwaysCounseling":18,"intensiveCompletion":0.8,"injuryRisk":0.04,"injuryRR":1,"nonfatalGap":0.15,"nonfatalYears":1,"fatalShare":0.02,"survivalUtility":0.85,"survivalYears":5,"competingMortality":0.01,"delay":0.125,"discount":0.03,"counselingGap":0.5,"counselingResponse":0,"counselingUtility":0.05,"counselingYears":0.5,"jobsAnnual":16,"jobCausal":0.25,"jobNetAnnual":3000,"jobYears":0.5,"jobDelay":0.625,"applicationsAnnual":60,"awardSuccess":0.5,"navigationCausal":0.25,"netAward":500,"awardIndependent":0.75,"receiptDelay":0.625,"householdShare":0.9,"baseline":25000,"healthCA":1,"incomeCA":1,"burdenCA":1,"assignment":1,"inducedApplicants":0,"applicantLoss":0,"independentHealthHarm":0,"fee":0,"externalPerCourse":0}; current outputs are descriptive, and causal/severity/resource coefficients are explicit judgments. These unweighted cases are not empirical confidence bounds.

No Mortality: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. {"gift":100000,"expense":7831321,"funding":0.35,"capacityScale":0.05,"cicAnnual":118,"pathwaysAnnual":74,"counselingAnnual":91,"cicCounseling":31,"pathwaysCounseling":18,"intensiveCompletion":0.8,"injuryRisk":0.04,"injuryRR":0.8,"nonfatalGap":0.15,"nonfatalYears":1,"fatalShare":0,"survivalUtility":0.85,"survivalYears":5,"competingMortality":0.01,"delay":0.125,"discount":0.03,"counselingGap":0.5,"counselingResponse":0.3,"counselingUtility":0.05,"counselingYears":0.5,"jobsAnnual":16,"jobCausal":0.25,"jobNetAnnual":3000,"jobYears":0.5,"jobDelay":0.625,"applicationsAnnual":60,"awardSuccess":0.5,"navigationCausal":0.25,"netAward":500,"awardIndependent":0.75,"receiptDelay":0.625,"householdShare":0.9,"baseline":25000,"healthCA":1,"incomeCA":1,"burdenCA":1,"assignment":1,"inducedApplicants":0,"applicantLoss":0,"independentHealthHarm":0,"fee":0,"externalPerCourse":0}; current outputs are descriptive, and causal/severity/resource coefficients are explicit judgments. These unweighted cases are not empirical confidence bounds.

No Counseling: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. {"gift":100000,"expense":7831321,"funding":0.35,"capacityScale":0.05,"cicAnnual":118,"pathwaysAnnual":74,"counselingAnnual":91,"cicCounseling":31,"pathwaysCounseling":18,"intensiveCompletion":0.8,"injuryRisk":0.04,"injuryRR":0.8,"nonfatalGap":0.15,"nonfatalYears":1,"fatalShare":0.02,"survivalUtility":0.85,"survivalYears":5,"competingMortality":0.01,"delay":0.125,"discount":0.03,"counselingGap":0.5,"counselingResponse":0,"counselingUtility":0.05,"counselingYears":0.5,"jobsAnnual":16,"jobCausal":0.25,"jobNetAnnual":3000,"jobYears":0.5,"jobDelay":0.625,"applicationsAnnual":60,"awardSuccess":0.5,"navigationCausal":0.25,"netAward":500,"awardIndependent":0.75,"receiptDelay":0.625,"householdShare":0.9,"baseline":25000,"healthCA":1,"incomeCA":1,"burdenCA":1,"assignment":1,"inducedApplicants":0,"applicantLoss":0,"independentHealthHarm":0,"fee":0,"externalPerCourse":0}; current outputs are descriptive, and causal/severity/resource coefficients are explicit judgments. These unweighted cases are not empirical confidence bounds.

Old Injury Relative Effect: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. {"gift":100000,"expense":7831321,"funding":0.35,"capacityScale":0.05,"cicAnnual":118,"pathwaysAnnual":74,"counselingAnnual":91,"cicCounseling":31,"pathwaysCounseling":18,"intensiveCompletion":0.8,"injuryRisk":0.04,"injuryRR":0.625,"nonfatalGap":0.15,"nonfatalYears":1,"fatalShare":0.02,"survivalUtility":0.85,"survivalYears":5,"competingMortality":0.01,"delay":0.125,"discount":0.03,"counselingGap":0.5,"counselingResponse":0.3,"counselingUtility":0.05,"counselingYears":0.5,"jobsAnnual":16,"jobCausal":0.25,"jobNetAnnual":3000,"jobYears":0.5,"jobDelay":0.625,"applicationsAnnual":60,"awardSuccess":0.5,"navigationCausal":0.25,"netAward":500,"awardIndependent":0.75,"receiptDelay":0.625,"householdShare":0.9,"baseline":25000,"healthCA":1,"incomeCA":1,"burdenCA":1,"assignment":1,"inducedApplicants":0,"applicantLoss":0,"independentHealthHarm":0,"fee":0,"externalPerCourse":0}; current outputs are descriptive, and causal/severity/resource coefficients are explicit judgments. These unweighted cases are not empirical confidence bounds.

Meta Odds As R R Stress: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. {"gift":100000,"expense":7831321,"funding":0.35,"capacityScale":0.05,"cicAnnual":118,"pathwaysAnnual":74,"counselingAnnual":91,"cicCounseling":31,"pathwaysCounseling":18,"intensiveCompletion":0.8,"injuryRisk":0.04,"injuryRR":0.6,"nonfatalGap":0.15,"nonfatalYears":1,"fatalShare":0.02,"survivalUtility":0.85,"survivalYears":5,"competingMortality":0.01,"delay":0.125,"discount":0.03,"counselingGap":0.5,"counselingResponse":0.3,"counselingUtility":0.05,"counselingYears":0.5,"jobsAnnual":16,"jobCausal":0.25,"jobNetAnnual":3000,"jobYears":0.5,"jobDelay":0.625,"applicationsAnnual":60,"awardSuccess":0.5,"navigationCausal":0.25,"netAward":500,"awardIndependent":0.75,"receiptDelay":0.625,"householdShare":0.9,"baseline":25000,"healthCA":1,"incomeCA":1,"burdenCA":1,"assignment":1,"inducedApplicants":0,"applicantLoss":0,"independentHealthHarm":0,"fee":0,"externalPerCourse":0}; current outputs are descriptive, and causal/severity/resource coefficients are explicit judgments. These unweighted cases are not empirical confidence bounds.

Low Injury Risk: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. {"gift":100000,"expense":7831321,"funding":0.35,"capacityScale":0.05,"cicAnnual":118,"pathwaysAnnual":74,"counselingAnnual":91,"cicCounseling":31,"pathwaysCounseling":18,"intensiveCompletion":0.8,"injuryRisk":0.02,"injuryRR":0.8,"nonfatalGap":0.15,"nonfatalYears":1,"fatalShare":0.02,"survivalUtility":0.85,"survivalYears":5,"competingMortality":0.01,"delay":0.125,"discount":0.03,"counselingGap":0.5,"counselingResponse":0.3,"counselingUtility":0.05,"counselingYears":0.5,"jobsAnnual":16,"jobCausal":0.25,"jobNetAnnual":3000,"jobYears":0.5,"jobDelay":0.625,"applicationsAnnual":60,"awardSuccess":0.5,"navigationCausal":0.25,"netAward":500,"awardIndependent":0.75,"receiptDelay":0.625,"householdShare":0.9,"baseline":25000,"healthCA":1,"incomeCA":1,"burdenCA":1,"assignment":1,"inducedApplicants":0,"applicantLoss":0,"independentHealthHarm":0,"fee":0,"externalPerCourse":0}; current outputs are descriptive, and causal/severity/resource coefficients are explicit judgments. These unweighted cases are not empirical confidence bounds.

Higher Injury Risk: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. {"gift":100000,"expense":7831321,"funding":0.35,"capacityScale":0.05,"cicAnnual":118,"pathwaysAnnual":74,"counselingAnnual":91,"cicCounseling":31,"pathwaysCounseling":18,"intensiveCompletion":0.8,"injuryRisk":0.08,"injuryRR":0.8,"nonfatalGap":0.15,"nonfatalYears":1,"fatalShare":0.02,"survivalUtility":0.85,"survivalYears":5,"competingMortality":0.01,"delay":0.125,"discount":0.03,"counselingGap":0.5,"counselingResponse":0.3,"counselingUtility":0.05,"counselingYears":0.5,"jobsAnnual":16,"jobCausal":0.25,"jobNetAnnual":3000,"jobYears":0.5,"jobDelay":0.625,"applicationsAnnual":60,"awardSuccess":0.5,"navigationCausal":0.25,"netAward":500,"awardIndependent":0.75,"receiptDelay":0.625,"householdShare":0.9,"baseline":25000,"healthCA":1,"incomeCA":1,"burdenCA":1,"assignment":1,"inducedApplicants":0,"applicantLoss":0,"independentHealthHarm":0,"fee":0,"externalPerCourse":0}; current outputs are descriptive, and causal/severity/resource coefficients are explicit judgments. These unweighted cases are not empirical confidence bounds.

Zero Earnings: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. {"gift":100000,"expense":7831321,"funding":0.35,"capacityScale":0.05,"cicAnnual":118,"pathwaysAnnual":74,"counselingAnnual":91,"cicCounseling":31,"pathwaysCounseling":18,"intensiveCompletion":0.8,"injuryRisk":0.04,"injuryRR":0.8,"nonfatalGap":0.15,"nonfatalYears":1,"fatalShare":0.02,"survivalUtility":0.85,"survivalYears":5,"competingMortality":0.01,"delay":0.125,"discount":0.03,"counselingGap":0.5,"counselingResponse":0.3,"counselingUtility":0.05,"counselingYears":0.5,"jobsAnnual":16,"jobCausal":0.25,"jobNetAnnual":0,"jobYears":0.5,"jobDelay":0.625,"applicationsAnnual":60,"awardSuccess":0.5,"navigationCausal":0.25,"netAward":500,"awardIndependent":0.75,"receiptDelay":0.625,"householdShare":0.9,"baseline":25000,"healthCA":1,"incomeCA":1,"burdenCA":1,"assignment":1,"inducedApplicants":0,"applicantLoss":0,"independentHealthHarm":0,"fee":0,"externalPerCourse":0}; current outputs are descriptive, and causal/severity/resource coefficients are explicit judgments. These unweighted cases are not empirical confidence bounds.

Zero Awards: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. {"gift":100000,"expense":7831321,"funding":0.35,"capacityScale":0.05,"cicAnnual":118,"pathwaysAnnual":74,"counselingAnnual":91,"cicCounseling":31,"pathwaysCounseling":18,"intensiveCompletion":0.8,"injuryRisk":0.04,"injuryRR":0.8,"nonfatalGap":0.15,"nonfatalYears":1,"fatalShare":0.02,"survivalUtility":0.85,"survivalYears":5,"competingMortality":0.01,"delay":0.125,"discount":0.03,"counselingGap":0.5,"counselingResponse":0.3,"counselingUtility":0.05,"counselingYears":0.5,"jobsAnnual":16,"jobCausal":0.25,"jobNetAnnual":3000,"jobYears":0.5,"jobDelay":0.625,"applicationsAnnual":60,"awardSuccess":0.5,"navigationCausal":0.25,"netAward":0,"awardIndependent":0.75,"receiptDelay":0.625,"householdShare":0.9,"baseline":25000,"healthCA":1,"incomeCA":1,"burdenCA":1,"assignment":1,"inducedApplicants":0,"applicantLoss":0,"independentHealthHarm":0,"fee":0,"externalPerCourse":0}; current outputs are descriptive, and causal/severity/resource coefficients are explicit judgments. These unweighted cases are not empirical confidence bounds.

All Income Zero: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. {"gift":100000,"expense":7831321,"funding":0.35,"capacityScale":0.05,"cicAnnual":118,"pathwaysAnnual":74,"counselingAnnual":91,"cicCounseling":31,"pathwaysCounseling":18,"intensiveCompletion":0.8,"injuryRisk":0.04,"injuryRR":0.8,"nonfatalGap":0.15,"nonfatalYears":1,"fatalShare":0.02,"survivalUtility":0.85,"survivalYears":5,"competingMortality":0.01,"delay":0.125,"discount":0.03,"counselingGap":0.5,"counselingResponse":0.3,"counselingUtility":0.05,"counselingYears":0.5,"jobsAnnual":16,"jobCausal":0.25,"jobNetAnnual":0,"jobYears":0.5,"jobDelay":0.625,"applicationsAnnual":60,"awardSuccess":0.5,"navigationCausal":0.25,"netAward":0,"awardIndependent":0.75,"receiptDelay":0.625,"householdShare":0.9,"baseline":25000,"healthCA":1,"incomeCA":1,"burdenCA":1,"assignment":1,"inducedApplicants":0,"applicantLoss":0,"independentHealthHarm":0,"fee":0,"externalPerCourse":0}; current outputs are descriptive, and causal/severity/resource coefficients are explicit judgments. These unweighted cases are not empirical confidence bounds.

Negative Earnings: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. {"gift":100000,"expense":7831321,"funding":0.35,"capacityScale":0.05,"cicAnnual":118,"pathwaysAnnual":74,"counselingAnnual":91,"cicCounseling":31,"pathwaysCounseling":18,"intensiveCompletion":0.8,"injuryRisk":0.04,"injuryRR":0.8,"nonfatalGap":0.15,"nonfatalYears":1,"fatalShare":0.02,"survivalUtility":0.85,"survivalYears":5,"competingMortality":0.01,"delay":0.125,"discount":0.03,"counselingGap":0.5,"counselingResponse":0.3,"counselingUtility":0.05,"counselingYears":0.5,"jobsAnnual":16,"jobCausal":0.25,"jobNetAnnual":-3000,"jobYears":0.5,"jobDelay":0.625,"applicationsAnnual":60,"awardSuccess":0.5,"navigationCausal":0.25,"netAward":500,"awardIndependent":0.75,"receiptDelay":0.625,"householdShare":0.9,"baseline":25000,"healthCA":1,"incomeCA":1,"burdenCA":1,"assignment":1,"inducedApplicants":0,"applicantLoss":0,"independentHealthHarm":0,"fee":0,"externalPerCourse":0}; current outputs are descriptive, and causal/severity/resource coefficients are explicit judgments. These unweighted cases are not empirical confidence bounds.

Negative Awards: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. {"gift":100000,"expense":7831321,"funding":0.35,"capacityScale":0.05,"cicAnnual":118,"pathwaysAnnual":74,"counselingAnnual":91,"cicCounseling":31,"pathwaysCounseling":18,"intensiveCompletion":0.8,"injuryRisk":0.04,"injuryRR":0.8,"nonfatalGap":0.15,"nonfatalYears":1,"fatalShare":0.02,"survivalUtility":0.85,"survivalYears":5,"competingMortality":0.01,"delay":0.125,"discount":0.03,"counselingGap":0.5,"counselingResponse":0.3,"counselingUtility":0.05,"counselingYears":0.5,"jobsAnnual":16,"jobCausal":0.25,"jobNetAnnual":3000,"jobYears":0.5,"jobDelay":0.625,"applicationsAnnual":60,"awardSuccess":0.5,"navigationCausal":0.25,"netAward":-500,"awardIndependent":0.75,"receiptDelay":0.625,"householdShare":0.9,"baseline":25000,"healthCA":1,"incomeCA":1,"burdenCA":1,"assignment":1,"inducedApplicants":0,"applicantLoss":0,"independentHealthHarm":0,"fee":0,"externalPerCourse":0}; current outputs are descriptive, and causal/severity/resource coefficients are explicit judgments. These unweighted cases are not empirical confidence bounds.

Resources50 K: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. {"gift":100000,"expense":7831321,"funding":0.35,"capacityScale":0.05,"cicAnnual":118,"pathwaysAnnual":74,"counselingAnnual":91,"cicCounseling":31,"pathwaysCounseling":18,"intensiveCompletion":0.8,"injuryRisk":0.04,"injuryRR":0.8,"nonfatalGap":0.15,"nonfatalYears":1,"fatalShare":0.02,"survivalUtility":0.85,"survivalYears":5,"competingMortality":0.01,"delay":0.125,"discount":0.03,"counselingGap":0.5,"counselingResponse":0.3,"counselingUtility":0.05,"counselingYears":0.5,"jobsAnnual":16,"jobCausal":0.25,"jobNetAnnual":3000,"jobYears":0.5,"jobDelay":0.625,"applicationsAnnual":60,"awardSuccess":0.5,"navigationCausal":0.25,"netAward":500,"awardIndependent":0.75,"receiptDelay":0.625,"householdShare":0.9,"baseline":50000,"healthCA":1,"incomeCA":1,"burdenCA":1,"assignment":1,"inducedApplicants":0,"applicantLoss":0,"independentHealthHarm":0,"fee":0,"externalPerCourse":0}; current outputs are descriptive, and causal/severity/resource coefficients are explicit judgments. These unweighted cases are not empirical confidence bounds.

Resources100 K: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. {"gift":100000,"expense":7831321,"funding":0.35,"capacityScale":0.05,"cicAnnual":118,"pathwaysAnnual":74,"counselingAnnual":91,"cicCounseling":31,"pathwaysCounseling":18,"intensiveCompletion":0.8,"injuryRisk":0.04,"injuryRR":0.8,"nonfatalGap":0.15,"nonfatalYears":1,"fatalShare":0.02,"survivalUtility":0.85,"survivalYears":5,"competingMortality":0.01,"delay":0.125,"discount":0.03,"counselingGap":0.5,"counselingResponse":0.3,"counselingUtility":0.05,"counselingYears":0.5,"jobsAnnual":16,"jobCausal":0.25,"jobNetAnnual":3000,"jobYears":0.5,"jobDelay":0.625,"applicationsAnnual":60,"awardSuccess":0.5,"navigationCausal":0.25,"netAward":500,"awardIndependent":0.75,"receiptDelay":0.625,"householdShare":0.9,"baseline":100000,"healthCA":1,"incomeCA":1,"burdenCA":1,"assignment":1,"inducedApplicants":0,"applicantLoss":0,"independentHealthHarm":0,"fee":0,"externalPerCourse":0}; current outputs are descriptive, and causal/severity/resource coefficients are explicit judgments. These unweighted cases are not empirical confidence bounds.

Low Funding: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. {"gift":100000,"expense":7831321,"funding":0.1,"capacityScale":0.05,"cicAnnual":118,"pathwaysAnnual":74,"counselingAnnual":91,"cicCounseling":31,"pathwaysCounseling":18,"intensiveCompletion":0.8,"injuryRisk":0.04,"injuryRR":0.8,"nonfatalGap":0.15,"nonfatalYears":1,"fatalShare":0.02,"survivalUtility":0.85,"survivalYears":5,"competingMortality":0.01,"delay":0.125,"discount":0.03,"counselingGap":0.5,"counselingResponse":0.3,"counselingUtility":0.05,"counselingYears":0.5,"jobsAnnual":16,"jobCausal":0.25,"jobNetAnnual":3000,"jobYears":0.5,"jobDelay":0.625,"applicationsAnnual":60,"awardSuccess":0.5,"navigationCausal":0.25,"netAward":500,"awardIndependent":0.75,"receiptDelay":0.625,"householdShare":0.9,"baseline":25000,"healthCA":1,"incomeCA":1,"burdenCA":1,"assignment":1,"inducedApplicants":0,"applicantLoss":0,"independentHealthHarm":0,"fee":0,"externalPerCourse":0}; current outputs are descriptive, and causal/severity/resource coefficients are explicit judgments. These unweighted cases are not empirical confidence bounds.

High Funding: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. {"gift":100000,"expense":7831321,"funding":0.7,"capacityScale":0.05,"cicAnnual":118,"pathwaysAnnual":74,"counselingAnnual":91,"cicCounseling":31,"pathwaysCounseling":18,"intensiveCompletion":0.8,"injuryRisk":0.04,"injuryRR":0.8,"nonfatalGap":0.15,"nonfatalYears":1,"fatalShare":0.02,"survivalUtility":0.85,"survivalYears":5,"competingMortality":0.01,"delay":0.125,"discount":0.03,"counselingGap":0.5,"counselingResponse":0.3,"counselingUtility":0.05,"counselingYears":0.5,"jobsAnnual":16,"jobCausal":0.25,"jobNetAnnual":3000,"jobYears":0.5,"jobDelay":0.625,"applicationsAnnual":60,"awardSuccess":0.5,"navigationCausal":0.25,"netAward":500,"awardIndependent":0.75,"receiptDelay":0.625,"householdShare":0.9,"baseline":25000,"healthCA":1,"incomeCA":1,"burdenCA":1,"assignment":1,"inducedApplicants":0,"applicantLoss":0,"independentHealthHarm":0,"fee":0,"externalPerCourse":0}; current outputs are descriptive, and causal/severity/resource coefficients are explicit judgments. These unweighted cases are not empirical confidence bounds.

Lower Jobs Causality: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. {"gift":100000,"expense":7831321,"funding":0.35,"capacityScale":0.05,"cicAnnual":118,"pathwaysAnnual":74,"counselingAnnual":91,"cicCounseling":31,"pathwaysCounseling":18,"intensiveCompletion":0.8,"injuryRisk":0.04,"injuryRR":0.8,"nonfatalGap":0.15,"nonfatalYears":1,"fatalShare":0.02,"survivalUtility":0.85,"survivalYears":5,"competingMortality":0.01,"delay":0.125,"discount":0.03,"counselingGap":0.5,"counselingResponse":0.3,"counselingUtility":0.05,"counselingYears":0.5,"jobsAnnual":16,"jobCausal":0.1,"jobNetAnnual":3000,"jobYears":0.5,"jobDelay":0.625,"applicationsAnnual":60,"awardSuccess":0.5,"navigationCausal":0.25,"netAward":500,"awardIndependent":0.75,"receiptDelay":0.625,"householdShare":0.9,"baseline":25000,"healthCA":1,"incomeCA":1,"burdenCA":1,"assignment":1,"inducedApplicants":0,"applicantLoss":0,"independentHealthHarm":0,"fee":0,"externalPerCourse":0}; current outputs are descriptive, and causal/severity/resource coefficients are explicit judgments. These unweighted cases are not empirical confidence bounds.

Higher Jobs Causality: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. {"gift":100000,"expense":7831321,"funding":0.35,"capacityScale":0.05,"cicAnnual":118,"pathwaysAnnual":74,"counselingAnnual":91,"cicCounseling":31,"pathwaysCounseling":18,"intensiveCompletion":0.8,"injuryRisk":0.04,"injuryRR":0.8,"nonfatalGap":0.15,"nonfatalYears":1,"fatalShare":0.02,"survivalUtility":0.85,"survivalYears":5,"competingMortality":0.01,"delay":0.125,"discount":0.03,"counselingGap":0.5,"counselingResponse":0.3,"counselingUtility":0.05,"counselingYears":0.5,"jobsAnnual":16,"jobCausal":0.5,"jobNetAnnual":3000,"jobYears":0.5,"jobDelay":0.625,"applicationsAnnual":60,"awardSuccess":0.5,"navigationCausal":0.25,"netAward":500,"awardIndependent":0.75,"receiptDelay":0.625,"householdShare":0.9,"baseline":25000,"healthCA":1,"incomeCA":1,"burdenCA":1,"assignment":1,"inducedApplicants":0,"applicantLoss":0,"independentHealthHarm":0,"fee":0,"externalPerCourse":0}; current outputs are descriptive, and causal/severity/resource coefficients are explicit judgments. These unweighted cases are not empirical confidence bounds.

Short Jobs: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. {"gift":100000,"expense":7831321,"funding":0.35,"capacityScale":0.05,"cicAnnual":118,"pathwaysAnnual":74,"counselingAnnual":91,"cicCounseling":31,"pathwaysCounseling":18,"intensiveCompletion":0.8,"injuryRisk":0.04,"injuryRR":0.8,"nonfatalGap":0.15,"nonfatalYears":1,"fatalShare":0.02,"survivalUtility":0.85,"survivalYears":5,"competingMortality":0.01,"delay":0.125,"discount":0.03,"counselingGap":0.5,"counselingResponse":0.3,"counselingUtility":0.05,"counselingYears":0.5,"jobsAnnual":16,"jobCausal":0.25,"jobNetAnnual":3000,"jobYears":0.25,"jobDelay":0.625,"applicationsAnnual":60,"awardSuccess":0.5,"navigationCausal":0.25,"netAward":500,"awardIndependent":0.75,"receiptDelay":0.625,"householdShare":0.9,"baseline":25000,"healthCA":1,"incomeCA":1,"burdenCA":1,"assignment":1,"inducedApplicants":0,"applicantLoss":0,"independentHealthHarm":0,"fee":0,"externalPerCourse":0}; current outputs are descriptive, and causal/severity/resource coefficients are explicit judgments. These unweighted cases are not empirical confidence bounds.

One Year Jobs: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. {"gift":100000,"expense":7831321,"funding":0.35,"capacityScale":0.05,"cicAnnual":118,"pathwaysAnnual":74,"counselingAnnual":91,"cicCounseling":31,"pathwaysCounseling":18,"intensiveCompletion":0.8,"injuryRisk":0.04,"injuryRR":0.8,"nonfatalGap":0.15,"nonfatalYears":1,"fatalShare":0.02,"survivalUtility":0.85,"survivalYears":5,"competingMortality":0.01,"delay":0.125,"discount":0.03,"counselingGap":0.5,"counselingResponse":0.3,"counselingUtility":0.05,"counselingYears":0.5,"jobsAnnual":16,"jobCausal":0.25,"jobNetAnnual":3000,"jobYears":1,"jobDelay":0.625,"applicationsAnnual":60,"awardSuccess":0.5,"navigationCausal":0.25,"netAward":500,"awardIndependent":0.75,"receiptDelay":0.625,"householdShare":0.9,"baseline":25000,"healthCA":1,"incomeCA":1,"burdenCA":1,"assignment":1,"inducedApplicants":0,"applicantLoss":0,"independentHealthHarm":0,"fee":0,"externalPerCourse":0}; current outputs are descriptive, and causal/severity/resource coefficients are explicit judgments. These unweighted cases are not empirical confidence bounds.

Low Counseling: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. {"gift":100000,"expense":7831321,"funding":0.35,"capacityScale":0.05,"cicAnnual":118,"pathwaysAnnual":74,"counselingAnnual":91,"cicCounseling":31,"pathwaysCounseling":18,"intensiveCompletion":0.8,"injuryRisk":0.04,"injuryRR":0.8,"nonfatalGap":0.15,"nonfatalYears":1,"fatalShare":0.02,"survivalUtility":0.85,"survivalYears":5,"competingMortality":0.01,"delay":0.125,"discount":0.03,"counselingGap":0.5,"counselingResponse":0.1,"counselingUtility":0.025,"counselingYears":0.5,"jobsAnnual":16,"jobCausal":0.25,"jobNetAnnual":3000,"jobYears":0.5,"jobDelay":0.625,"applicationsAnnual":60,"awardSuccess":0.5,"navigationCausal":0.25,"netAward":500,"awardIndependent":0.75,"receiptDelay":0.625,"householdShare":0.9,"baseline":25000,"healthCA":1,"incomeCA":1,"burdenCA":1,"assignment":1,"inducedApplicants":0,"applicantLoss":0,"independentHealthHarm":0,"fee":0,"externalPerCourse":0}; current outputs are descriptive, and causal/severity/resource coefficients are explicit judgments. These unweighted cases are not empirical confidence bounds.

Higher Counseling: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. {"gift":100000,"expense":7831321,"funding":0.35,"capacityScale":0.05,"cicAnnual":118,"pathwaysAnnual":74,"counselingAnnual":91,"cicCounseling":31,"pathwaysCounseling":18,"intensiveCompletion":0.8,"injuryRisk":0.04,"injuryRR":0.8,"nonfatalGap":0.15,"nonfatalYears":1,"fatalShare":0.02,"survivalUtility":0.85,"survivalYears":5,"competingMortality":0.01,"delay":0.125,"discount":0.03,"counselingGap":0.5,"counselingResponse":0.5,"counselingUtility":0.1,"counselingYears":0.5,"jobsAnnual":16,"jobCausal":0.25,"jobNetAnnual":3000,"jobYears":0.5,"jobDelay":0.625,"applicationsAnnual":60,"awardSuccess":0.5,"navigationCausal":0.25,"netAward":500,"awardIndependent":0.75,"receiptDelay":0.625,"householdShare":0.9,"baseline":25000,"healthCA":1,"incomeCA":1,"burdenCA":1,"assignment":1,"inducedApplicants":0,"applicantLoss":0,"independentHealthHarm":0,"fee":0,"externalPerCourse":0}; current outputs are descriptive, and causal/severity/resource coefficients are explicit judgments. These unweighted cases are not empirical confidence bounds.

Adverse Counseling: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. {"gift":100000,"expense":7831321,"funding":0.35,"capacityScale":0.05,"cicAnnual":118,"pathwaysAnnual":74,"counselingAnnual":91,"cicCounseling":31,"pathwaysCounseling":18,"intensiveCompletion":0.8,"injuryRisk":0.04,"injuryRR":0.8,"nonfatalGap":0.15,"nonfatalYears":1,"fatalShare":0.02,"survivalUtility":0.85,"survivalYears":5,"competingMortality":0.01,"delay":0.125,"discount":0.03,"counselingGap":0.5,"counselingResponse":0.3,"counselingUtility":-0.05,"counselingYears":0.5,"jobsAnnual":16,"jobCausal":0.25,"jobNetAnnual":3000,"jobYears":0.5,"jobDelay":0.625,"applicationsAnnual":60,"awardSuccess":0.5,"navigationCausal":0.25,"netAward":500,"awardIndependent":0.75,"receiptDelay":0.625,"householdShare":0.9,"baseline":25000,"healthCA":1,"incomeCA":1,"burdenCA":1,"assignment":1,"inducedApplicants":0,"applicantLoss":0,"independentHealthHarm":0,"fee":0,"externalPerCourse":0}; current outputs are descriptive, and causal/severity/resource coefficients are explicit judgments. These unweighted cases are not empirical confidence bounds.

Injury Harm: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. {"gift":100000,"expense":7831321,"funding":0.35,"capacityScale":0.05,"cicAnnual":118,"pathwaysAnnual":74,"counselingAnnual":91,"cicCounseling":31,"pathwaysCounseling":18,"intensiveCompletion":0.8,"injuryRisk":0.04,"injuryRR":1.1,"nonfatalGap":0.15,"nonfatalYears":1,"fatalShare":0.02,"survivalUtility":0.85,"survivalYears":5,"competingMortality":0.01,"delay":0.125,"discount":0.03,"counselingGap":0.5,"counselingResponse":0.3,"counselingUtility":0.05,"counselingYears":0.5,"jobsAnnual":16,"jobCausal":0.25,"jobNetAnnual":3000,"jobYears":0.5,"jobDelay":0.625,"applicationsAnnual":60,"awardSuccess":0.5,"navigationCausal":0.25,"netAward":500,"awardIndependent":0.75,"receiptDelay":0.625,"householdShare":0.9,"baseline":25000,"healthCA":1,"incomeCA":1,"burdenCA":1,"assignment":1,"inducedApplicants":0,"applicantLoss":0,"independentHealthHarm":0,"fee":0,"externalPerCourse":0}; current outputs are descriptive, and causal/severity/resource coefficients are explicit judgments. These unweighted cases are not empirical confidence bounds.

Failed Applicants: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. {"gift":100000,"expense":7831321,"funding":0,"capacityScale":0.05,"cicAnnual":118,"pathwaysAnnual":74,"counselingAnnual":91,"cicCounseling":31,"pathwaysCounseling":18,"intensiveCompletion":0.8,"injuryRisk":0.04,"injuryRR":0.8,"nonfatalGap":0.15,"nonfatalYears":1,"fatalShare":0.02,"survivalUtility":0.85,"survivalYears":5,"competingMortality":0.01,"delay":0.125,"discount":0.03,"counselingGap":0.5,"counselingResponse":0.3,"counselingUtility":0.05,"counselingYears":0.5,"jobsAnnual":16,"jobCausal":0.25,"jobNetAnnual":3000,"jobYears":0.5,"jobDelay":0.625,"applicationsAnnual":60,"awardSuccess":0.5,"navigationCausal":0.25,"netAward":500,"awardIndependent":0.75,"receiptDelay":0.625,"householdShare":0.9,"baseline":25000,"healthCA":1,"incomeCA":1,"burdenCA":1,"assignment":1,"inducedApplicants":20,"applicantLoss":10,"independentHealthHarm":0,"fee":0,"externalPerCourse":0}; current outputs are descriptive, and causal/severity/resource coefficients are explicit judgments. These unweighted cases are not empirical confidence bounds.

Harm No Assignment: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. {"gift":100000,"expense":7831321,"funding":0,"capacityScale":0.05,"cicAnnual":118,"pathwaysAnnual":74,"counselingAnnual":91,"cicCounseling":31,"pathwaysCounseling":18,"intensiveCompletion":0.8,"injuryRisk":0.04,"injuryRR":0.8,"nonfatalGap":0.15,"nonfatalYears":1,"fatalShare":0.02,"survivalUtility":0.85,"survivalYears":5,"competingMortality":0.01,"delay":0.125,"discount":0.03,"counselingGap":0.5,"counselingResponse":0.3,"counselingUtility":0.05,"counselingYears":0.5,"jobsAnnual":16,"jobCausal":0.25,"jobNetAnnual":3000,"jobYears":0.5,"jobDelay":0.625,"applicationsAnnual":60,"awardSuccess":0.5,"navigationCausal":0.25,"netAward":500,"awardIndependent":0.75,"receiptDelay":0.625,"householdShare":0.9,"baseline":25000,"healthCA":1,"incomeCA":1,"burdenCA":1,"assignment":0,"inducedApplicants":20,"applicantLoss":10,"independentHealthHarm":0.005,"fee":0,"externalPerCourse":0}; current outputs are descriptive, and causal/severity/resource coefficients are explicit judgments. These unweighted cases are not empirical confidence bounds.

Low Capacity: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. {"gift":100000,"expense":7831321,"funding":0.35,"capacityScale":0,"cicAnnual":118,"pathwaysAnnual":74,"counselingAnnual":91,"cicCounseling":31,"pathwaysCounseling":18,"intensiveCompletion":0.8,"injuryRisk":0.04,"injuryRR":0.8,"nonfatalGap":0.15,"nonfatalYears":1,"fatalShare":0.02,"survivalUtility":0.85,"survivalYears":5,"competingMortality":0.01,"delay":0.125,"discount":0.03,"counselingGap":0.5,"counselingResponse":0.3,"counselingUtility":0.05,"counselingYears":0.5,"jobsAnnual":16,"jobCausal":0.25,"jobNetAnnual":3000,"jobYears":0.5,"jobDelay":0.625,"applicationsAnnual":60,"awardSuccess":0.5,"navigationCausal":0.25,"netAward":500,"awardIndependent":0.75,"receiptDelay":0.625,"householdShare":0.9,"baseline":25000,"healthCA":1,"incomeCA":1,"burdenCA":1,"assignment":1,"inducedApplicants":0,"applicantLoss":0,"independentHealthHarm":0,"fee":0,"externalPerCourse":0}; current outputs are descriptive, and causal/severity/resource coefficients are explicit judgments. These unweighted cases are not empirical confidence bounds.

Extra Partner Resources: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. {"gift":100000,"expense":7831321,"funding":0.35,"capacityScale":0.05,"cicAnnual":118,"pathwaysAnnual":74,"counselingAnnual":91,"cicCounseling":31,"pathwaysCounseling":18,"intensiveCompletion":0.8,"injuryRisk":0.04,"injuryRR":0.8,"nonfatalGap":0.15,"nonfatalYears":1,"fatalShare":0.02,"survivalUtility":0.85,"survivalYears":5,"competingMortality":0.01,"delay":0.125,"discount":0.03,"counselingGap":0.5,"counselingResponse":0.3,"counselingUtility":0.05,"counselingYears":0.5,"jobsAnnual":16,"jobCausal":0.25,"jobNetAnnual":3000,"jobYears":0.5,"jobDelay":0.625,"applicationsAnnual":60,"awardSuccess":0.5,"navigationCausal":0.25,"netAward":500,"awardIndependent":0.75,"receiptDelay":0.625,"householdShare":0.9,"baseline":25000,"healthCA":1,"incomeCA":1,"burdenCA":1,"assignment":1,"inducedApplicants":0,"applicantLoss":0,"independentHealthHarm":0,"fee":0,"externalPerCourse":750}; current outputs are descriptive, and causal/severity/resource coefficients are explicit judgments. These unweighted cases are not empirical confidence bounds.

All Awards Independent: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. {"gift":100000,"expense":7831321,"funding":0.35,"capacityScale":0.05,"cicAnnual":118,"pathwaysAnnual":74,"counselingAnnual":91,"cicCounseling":31,"pathwaysCounseling":18,"intensiveCompletion":0.8,"injuryRisk":0.04,"injuryRR":0.8,"nonfatalGap":0.15,"nonfatalYears":1,"fatalShare":0.02,"survivalUtility":0.85,"survivalYears":5,"competingMortality":0.01,"delay":0.125,"discount":0.03,"counselingGap":0.5,"counselingResponse":0.3,"counselingUtility":0.05,"counselingYears":0.5,"jobsAnnual":16,"jobCausal":0.25,"jobNetAnnual":3000,"jobYears":0.5,"jobDelay":0.625,"applicationsAnnual":60,"awardSuccess":0.5,"navigationCausal":0.25,"netAward":500,"awardIndependent":1,"receiptDelay":0.625,"householdShare":0.9,"baseline":25000,"healthCA":1,"incomeCA":1,"burdenCA":1,"assignment":1,"inducedApplicants":0,"applicantLoss":0,"independentHealthHarm":0,"fee":0,"externalPerCourse":0}; current outputs are descriptive, and causal/severity/resource coefficients are explicit judgments. These unweighted cases are not empirical confidence bounds.

No Independent Awards: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. {"gift":100000,"expense":7831321,"funding":0.35,"capacityScale":0.05,"cicAnnual":118,"pathwaysAnnual":74,"counselingAnnual":91,"cicCounseling":31,"pathwaysCounseling":18,"intensiveCompletion":0.8,"injuryRisk":0.04,"injuryRR":0.8,"nonfatalGap":0.15,"nonfatalYears":1,"fatalShare":0.02,"survivalUtility":0.85,"survivalYears":5,"competingMortality":0.01,"delay":0.125,"discount":0.03,"counselingGap":0.5,"counselingResponse":0.3,"counselingUtility":0.05,"counselingYears":0.5,"jobsAnnual":16,"jobCausal":0.25,"jobNetAnnual":3000,"jobYears":0.5,"jobDelay":0.625,"applicationsAnnual":60,"awardSuccess":0.5,"navigationCausal":0.25,"netAward":500,"awardIndependent":0,"receiptDelay":0.625,"householdShare":0.9,"baseline":25000,"healthCA":1,"incomeCA":1,"burdenCA":1,"assignment":1,"inducedApplicants":0,"applicantLoss":0,"independentHealthHarm":0,"fee":0,"externalPerCourse":0}; current outputs are descriptive, and causal/severity/resource coefficients are explicit judgments. These unweighted cases are not empirical confidence bounds.

Historical prior-weighted health illustration: Cost: $100K; California health QALYs: 0.04; all-population health QALYs: 0.04. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. Preserved old five-state judgment-weighted result, approximately $2.7M per DALY. Not a current donor price; full old scenarios are frozen in data/california/youth-ca-pre-recalibration-model.json.

Counterfactual: Existing hospital referrals, counseling, jobs, compensation navigation and county/state/payer support continue. Funding additionality and causal pathway shares are distinct judgments; grants, descriptive outputs and public compensation are not automatically additional donor-caused benefits.

Attribution: One shared portfolio scale funds CiC, Pathways and counseling outputs once. Counseling reserves 31 CiC and 18 Pathways overlaps before allocating one index person per residual unit. Job income is conditional-alive benefit among existing Pathways recipients, not wages for lives newly saved. Compensation excludes 25% of positive resource credit for potential job-household overlap; negative resources are not overlap-discounted. Independent induced harms persist outside positive-benefit assignment.

Conditional partial-portfolio estimate, not complete organizational EV, a lower bound, a confidence interval, or a verified marginal offer. Current cost/output normalization replaces a partial historical contract. The clinical trajectory is independently reconstructed rather than carrying forward rounded modeled QALYs; causal effects, severity, funding response, household resources and durations remain judgment-dependent.

Sensitivity

  • Current central health is 0.0014316240 and net resource benefit 0.0006674205 California equivalent years per illustrative $100,000, giving $47.6M per DALY. The historical weighted health illustration was $2.7M; the difference is driven by cost scope and a new finite clinical bridge, not a forced ranking change.
  • Funding, capacity, causal injury effect, clinical severity, counseling response, job causality/duration, award resources and reference household income vary independently. Cases have no probability weights and do not constitute confidence intervals.
  • Negative job resources, negative compensation, adverse counseling and induced application costs retain their signed values. Null and harm cases have no finite positive price.
  • Additional partner resources affect the gross-resource comparison, not donor cost or household income. No administrative markup is added again to the gross recipient expense base.

Unresolved inputs

  • Current costed marginal staffing/caseload plan, including public grants and payer replacement.
  • Causally comparable local reinjury, mortality, clinical utility and counseling outcomes with attrition addressed.
  • Reconciled unique participant and household cohorts across programs.
  • Actual net wages, counterfactual jobs, award success, incremental compensation and beneficiary resource baselines.
  • Quantifiable prevention, interruption, family and policy effects, with coalition and clinical overlap resolved.

Health and income breakdown

For the modeled $100K: 0.00 health QALYs + 0.00 income-equivalent healthy years in California: $47.6M per DALY. Income equivalents are welfare comparisons, not observed QALYs or DALYs.

Method and caveats.

5. Funding and previous grants

The current CalVIP award list grants Youth ALIVE! $5 million for the 2026–29 cohort, overlapping CiC, violence interruption and family response. DHCS allows eligible violence-prevention community-health-worker services, but Youth ALIVE!'s actual billing and uncovered caseload are unverified. Both public pathways belong in the no-gift baseline; neither proves that all needs are funded.

The 2025 return reports $5,634,909 contract revenue and $428,802 service fees, but does not identify actual Medi-Cal collections. Cash was $3,957,649 plus $210,161 savings at year-end; $1,208,418 net assets were donor-restricted and $4,478,159 were without donor restrictions. Those balances do not by themselves establish spare deployable cash or an unfunded expansion. Reopen a donor price only with a dated staffing and waitlist plan reconciled to CalVIP, county contracts and payer claims, plus comparable injury and utility follow-up.

Historical expense reference: the original FY2022 return reported $5,360,166 on the gross recipient expense basis. It is preserved here as context, not included in the latest comparable FY2023–2025 three-year mean of $7,208,761.33.

The latest model uses the same funding-response judgment across current program outputs, not a separate donor budget per program. The existing $5.0M 2026–2029 CalVIP award remains part of the baseline. No costed private-donor expansion tranche or additional staffing capacity has been verified.

Annual expenses

Organization-level spending, including programs, administration and fundraising. The research list averages three comparable, consecutive full fiscal years when available.

  • FY 2023: $6.5M; Youth Alive, EIN94-3143254, 12-month period, Calendar-year original Form 990 functional expenses plus direct fundraising-event costs netted against revenue; gross recipient expense basis.. Source
  • FY 2024: $7.3M; Youth Alive, EIN94-3143254, 12-month period, Calendar-year original Form 990 functional expenses plus direct fundraising-event costs netted against revenue; gross recipient expense basis.. Source
  • FY 2025: $7.8M; Youth Alive, EIN94-3143254, 12-month period, Calendar-year original Form 990 functional expenses plus direct fundraising-event costs netted against revenue; gross recipient expense basis.. Source

6. Sources

  1. 2025 program results. Youth ALIVE!. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-10-02.
  2. Caught in the Crossfire. Youth ALIVE!. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-10-02.
  3. Donate and recipient identity. Youth ALIVE!. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-10-02.
  4. Original 2025 Form 990, Parts VIII–X. Youth ALIVE! / IRS; ProPublica copy. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-10-02.
  5. Original2024Form990, PartsI/VIII/IX/X. Youth ALIVE! / IRS; ProPublica copy. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-10-02.
  6. Original2023Form990, including prior2022expenses. Youth ALIVE! / IRS; ProPublica copy. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-10-02.
  7. Historical county CiC contract, reused verified prior record. Alameda County. Published: 2024-07-09; retrieved: 2026-09-10.
  8. Hospital-centered violence intervention cost-effectiveness analysis. Chong and colleagues, American Journal of Surgery. Published: 2014-12-18; retrieved: 2026-10-02.
  9. Rehabilitation after traumatic injury AppendixH economic evidence table. NICE. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-09-13.
  10. HVIP systematic review/meta-analysis and guideline update2026. Jawa and colleagues, Journal of Trauma and Acute Care Surgery. Published: 2026-08-18; retrieved: 2026-10-02.
  11. Caught in the Crossfire matched retrospective evaluation; corrected DOI. Becker and colleagues, Journal of Adolescent Health. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-10-02.
  12. Oakland hospital intervention matched retrospective cohort. Shibru and colleagues, Journal of the American College of Surgeons. Published: 2007-09-10; retrieved: 2026-10-02.
  13. Oakland violence intervention program evaluation in city commission packet. Mathematica / City of Oakland. Published: 2020-10-26; retrieved: 2026-09-30.
  14. Process and outcome evaluation of Oakland school violence intervention. Urban Institute. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-09-30.
  15. Current CalVIP Cohort5 awards and period. California BSCC. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-09-13.
  16. Cohort5 project summary: Youth ALIVE!. California BSCC. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-09-13.
  17. Community Health Worker benefit and violence-prevention services. California DHCS. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-09-13.
  18. Healing to Scale in Oakland final local evaluation. Youth ALIVE! local evaluation published by California BSCC. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-09-13.
  19. Original 2022 Form 990, including separately netted event costs. Youth ALIVE! / IRS. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-09-14.
  20. Pathways: program activities and 2025 results. Youth ALIVE!. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-10-02.
  21. Counseling Services: activities and reported reach. Youth ALIVE!. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-10-02.
  22. What is covered by victim compensation. California Victim Compensation Board. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-10-02.