Streets Are For Everyone

All recipient cash costs, including netted direct fundraising costs, for an ordinary unrestricted funding normalization. Numerical benefits cover only residual LA City camera implementation; not whole-portfolio return and not a restricted gift to cameras. Public resource costs excluded from donor price but disclosed and sensitized.

Only the 125 LA City locations enter N. g=.90 is an explicit resident-benefit prior for LA+Orange counties, not LA County population share, office location, event attendance or percentage of SAFE operations. Non-MSA visitors/commuters excluded; other cities and statewide policy benefits unpriced.

For ordinary incremental D: K=(D/C)*N*t*p*a*b additional camera-years. Deaths=K*fd*z*s; serious nonfatal injuries=K*fi*z*s. L=u*(1-exp(-(mu+ln(1+d))*T))/(mu+ln(1+d)). Q_all=(Deaths*L+injuries*qi)/(1+d). Q_LA=g*Q_all. Price=10*D/Q_LA. Displayed normalization D=C=449963; never claim one gift alone changes all cameras. qi is a discounted-at-injury lifetime decrement over a finite ten-year injury horizon.

C

449963 USD gross recipient cash costs per year (observed). 2024 Part IX $396,681 plus $53,282 event costs netted against revenue in Part VIII; no event income subtraction or program-only denominator. [safe-99024]

N

125 LA City camera locations (observed). Current planned system locations, not camera lenses, completed deployments, or lives saved. [la-camera-current] [la-camera-council]

t

0.25 camera-years per location conditional on successful intervention (judgment). A residual three-month delay/interruption equivalent within the next year, not five years of credit for the already-authorized pilot. Can represent partial network delays with the same sum of camera-days. [safe-camera-work] [la-camera-aug26]

p

0.2 probability coalition changes residual implementation (judgment). Explicit analyst prior, not a historical win rate or source-calibrated probability; city/vendor already intend rollout. [la-camera-council] [safe-reportcard]

a

0.2 SAFE share of coalition's incremental implementation effect (judgment). Multiple advocacy organizations, officials, consultants and vendor participate. Co-sponsor status does not measure causal share. [safe-camera-work] [safe-reportcard]

b

0.25 marginal ordinary-funding responsiveness (judgment). Discount for sponsorship, vendor-directed work, other revenue, reserves, and donor replacement; no verified staffing gap. Zero is plausible. [safe-99023] [safe-99024] [safe-support]

fd

0.19 fatalities prevented per additional camera-year in external study (observed). Tang's projection of up to 190 lives saved per 1,000 additional cameras annually; upper projected external yield, not measured LA yield. Paper dated September 2017; exact publication day unknown. [tang2017] [lse-tang2017]

fi

0.33 serious injuries prevented per additional camera-year in external study (observed). Tang's separate projection of up to 330 serious injuries prevented per 1,000 additional cameras annually. This projected external upper yield is not measured LA impact; fatalities and nonfatal serious injuries kept separate. [tang2017] [lse-tang2017]

z

0.1 external effect retained in LA (judgment). 90% haircut for older UK sites, high historical casualty risk, local baseline uncertainty, two-direction system differences, and short implementation horizon; not empirical calibration. [tang2017] [nhtsa-camera] [nyc-camera2025]

s

0.8 net benefit retained after traffic displacement (judgment). 20% further reduction for rebound beyond sites; newer NYC evidence is more reassuring but does not identify LA spillovers. [tang2017] [nyc-camera2025]

g

0.9 share of modeled beneficiaries resident in LA or Orange County (judgment). Only LA City locations modeled; 10% excluded for visitors and commuters resident outside the MSA. Road location does not establish residence. Stress .70-.98, not an observed bound. [la-camera-current]

u

0.85 utility weight of survival (judgment). Average counterfactual health utility; no local survivor age/health mix.

T

30 maximum remaining life-years per death avoided (judgment). Finite horizon; not an indefinite value for every crash avoided.

mu

0.01 annual competing mortality hazard (judgment). Simple age-mix proxy; uncertainty in remaining lifetime is explicit.

d

0.03 annual QALY discount rate (judgment). Continuous equivalent log(1.03) for survival, one-year event delay.

qi

1 discounted-at-injury QALY loss avoided per serious nonfatal injury (judgment). Judgment for discounted-at-injury lifetime loss over at most ten years; no validated local severity distribution. Stress .1-3 QALYs; separate from death outcomes.

publicAnnual

7950000 USD annual city camera program estimate (observed). Impact Report Table 1 includes $1.2 million staffing plus $6.75 million equipment/vendor; Council narrative gives $6.675 million vendor estimate, a $75 thousand discrepancy. Estimates, not final outturn. [la-camera-impact] [la-camera-council]

Conditional camera slice only—not whole-portfolio estimate: Cost: $450K; Los Angeles QALYs: 0.06917138089842043; all-population QALYs: 0.0768570898871338. N=125; t=.25; p=.2; a=.2; b=.25; fd=.19; fi=.33; z=.1; s=.8; g=.9; u=.85; T=30; mu=.01; d=.03; qi=1. Pilot financed and planned without gift; only residual implementation equivalents priced.

Weak additionality and low transfer, not a lower confidence bound: Cost: $450K; Los Angeles QALYs: 0.00002721422302001308; all-population QALYs: 0.000038877461457161546. t=1/12; p=.05; a=.05; b=.1; z=.02; s=.5; g=.7; u=.7; T=15; qi=.1; other inputs central.

Strong residual influence and transfer, not an upper confidence bound: Cost: $450K; Los Angeles QALYs: 13.155091991546835; all-population QALYs: 13.423563256680444. t=.5; p=.5; a=.4; b=.5; z=.5; s=1; g=.98; u=.9; T=40; qi=3; other inputs central.

Funders or city/vendor entirely substitute for gift: Cost: $450K; Los Angeles QALYs: 0; all-population QALYs: 0. b=0; no finite positive QALY price.

Net harm exceeds the modeled camera benefit: Cost: $450K; Los Angeles QALYs: -0.06917138089842043; all-population QALYs: -0.0768570898871338. Illustrative signed downside: unmodeled health harms equal twice the camera health benefit; not an empirical bound or monetized fine estimate. No positive QALY price.

Camera slice with incremental public resource costs: Cost: $470K; Los Angeles QALYs: 0.06917138089842043; all-population QALYs: 0.0768570898871338. Add $19,875 public operating resources for K=.3125 camera-years using $7.95 million/125; fixed costs may not vary this way. Fines are transfers, not negative resource costs.

Whole recipient portfolio including other policies and support: Cost: $450K; Los Angeles QALYs: unknown; all-population QALYs: unknown. Do not substitute the camera-slice value for the unestimated whole-portfolio return.

Counterfactual: Without marginal ordinary funding, AB 645 remains enacted, city funding, vendor installation, paid outreach and other advocates continue. Only a probabilistic residual three-month-equivalent delay/interruption avoided within the next year is modeled. No causal claim about future bill passage; no indefinite pilot renewal, no annual re-crediting of the same survivor.

Attribution: p=.20 is coalition incremental implementation probability; a=.20 allocates its effect to SAFE; b=.25 is response to marginal ordinary funding after sponsors, reserves and replacement. These separate conditional judgments are not empirical probabilities. The evidence establishes participation but does not calibrate any of them. Their product can be zero.

Structural and prior-dominated. Central numerical result is a camera-only decision scenario, not an identified portfolio best estimate or statistical expected value. Poor/favorable combinations are stress tests, not credible bounds. Nonhealth fines/privacy harms and benefits of other programs are not assigned invented QALYs. Zero and negative net-health scenarios retained; a whole-portfolio ranking would be misleading without additional causal work.

Sensitivity

• Price scales inversely with additional camera-years, external transfer and resident share. g=.70 vs .90 increases price by 28.6%; .98 lowers it by 8.2%.
• At central clinical/transfer assumptions, each attributable camera-year yields 0.22134841887494536 LA QALYs. Reaching $1 million/10 requires 20.328268089152893 attributable camera-years per annual recipient cost; $100 thousand/10 needs ten times that.
• Camera technology's effect is not SAFE's effect. Replacing p*a*b with 1 would wrongly give an ordinary gift all coalition, public and vendor credit.
• Removing the priced injury term leaves the finite survival integral; no separate lifetime credit for repeated crashes or recurring injury-years.
• Using the three-year gross cash-cost mean $332,876 reduces the price by the cost ratio, but understates current expense growth; central uses latest year.
• City memorandum vendor estimate $6.675 million differs from Impact Report $6.75 million. Use total Table 1 $7.95 million only in public-cost sensitivity; no false precision about executed public contract.

Unresolved inputs

• Actual marginal SAFE staff/contracting plan and unrestricted gap; current vendor and government-related revenue by payer and restrictions.
• Residual camera-days changed by SAFE relative to planned city/vendor/coalition baseline; evidence to calibrate p, a and b.
• Casualty baselines and before/after comparison at 125 selected sites, adjusting selection and crash migration.
• LA/Orange resident share, ages, injury severity and remaining survival of affected road users.
• Causal health and nonhealth returns of other policy, survivor, education and community programs; vendor-related opportunity costs and enforcement harms.