GiveBetter x Houston

Big Brothers Big Sisters Lone Star

One-to-one volunteer mentoring for children facing adversity

Research time: 4 min on Claude Opus 5.5
  • Research — reviewed programs, finances and impact evidence.
  • Modeling — estimated costs, QALYs and uncertainty.
  • Source audit — checked claims, assumptions and calculations.

Updated: 2026-10-18

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Summary

What do they do? Big Brothers Big Sisters Lone Star matches children facing adversity with screened volunteer mentors who meet them regularly, in community-based, school-based and Amachi (children of incarcerated parents) programs. It is a Texas agency based in Dallas whose core markets include Greater Houston, where the program has run since the 1950s; it served 5,110 children in 2024. This in-depth review prices the organization’s whole cost per match against long-run earnings from a tax-record follow-up of Big Brothers Big Sisters’ randomized trial, in which Houston was one of eight sites.

Why we’re interested in this organization:

  • The 1991–93 randomized trial of about 1,100 youth found behavior improvements while matched; linked tax records show treatment youth were significantly more likely to attend college.

  • A larger observational comparison of unmatched applicants found earnings about 19% higher at ages 20 to 25, and Arnold Ventures rates community-based mentoring Near Top Tier.

  • Volunteers provide the mentoring, so cash costs are low: about $2,900 per child served a year today.

Our main reservations:

  • Our working estimate is about $61K per DALY; all of it is income, and the randomized trial’s own earnings estimate is imprecise.

  • The strongest earnings evidence is observational; we treat half of it as causal.

  • The trial tested community-based matches in 1991–93; today’s mix includes school-based mentoring, which has weaker evidence.

What do you get for your dollar? $60K per DALY in Houston. DALY is our one-year comparison unit. QALY-based health gains and income-welfare equivalents retain their original assumptions; they are not measured clinical DALYs. Whole-organization cost per match against long-run earnings from the BBBS mentoring trial follow-up; income-only welfare comparison, not a verified marginal gift offer.

College attendance, adult earnings (ages 20–30), incarceration, teen birth from tax and vital records.

1. What do they do?

Big Brothers Big Sisters Lone Star (EIN 75-0800632) is the Big Brothers Big Sisters agency for much of Texas, including Greater Houston, Dallas–Fort Worth and, from 2026, Austin. Volunteers are screened and matched one-to-one with school-age children and meet regularly for activities, with professional match-support staff. Programs include community-based, school-based and Amachi Texas mentoring for children of incarcerated parents. It served 5,110 children in 2024. A donation supports the whole organization.

2. Monitoring and information sharing

Big Brothers Big Sisters of America ran a randomized waitlist trial at eight agencies, including Houston, in 1991–93; 1,138 families consented. Bell and Petkova linked 883 participants to tax records (Treasury data) to measure adult outcomes, and a 2025 version adds an observational comparison of Boston applicants. The agency reports children served through GuideStar. We did not find Houston-only counts or cost per match; we have not contacted the organization.

3. Qualitative assessment

Within 18 months, the original trial found lower absenteeism and fewer school suspensions among matched youth. The long-run follow-up finds treatment youth significantly more likely to attend college, with imprecise earnings effects in the RCT itself. Comparing matched with unmatched applicants, it finds about 19% higher earnings at ages 20 to 25, and the Policy Impacts library records an estimated $56,000 lifetime earnings gain and a negative net government cost. Average adult wages in the sample were low ($16,500 for men, $14,000 for women at ages 25 to 30), so a given percentage gain is a modest dollar amount.

4. What do you get for your dollar?

Our central estimate is $61K per DALY, using one modeled equivalent year. It is an income-only comparison: we credit no health gain.

Cost. CY2023 expense was $14.8M for 5,110 children served in 2024, about $2,889 per child a year; at 1.5 years per match that is $4,334 per match. The trial agencies spent about $2,778 per active match in 2018 dollars.

Benefit. We credit an 8% gross earnings gain on a $20,000 base from age 20 for 25 years, 60% as net welfare: under half the observational 19%, because the RCT’s own earnings estimate is imprecise. We keep 0.5 for causality, 0.6 for transfer to today’s program mix, 0.9 for displacement and 0.8 for Houston residence.

Range. At the trial’s cost the estimate is $74K per DALY. Treating the 19% observational effect as fully causal gives $13K per DALY; a 3% effect gives $159K per DALY; gains lasting only ten years give $123K per DALY. If there is no lasting earnings effect, there is no credited benefit.

Model, assumptions and sensitivity

CY2023 whole-organization expense per child served (2024) × 1.5 years per match.

Houston-area children; 0.8 of adult earning years in the Houston metro.

Price = cost per match ÷ [0.5 × discounted years(25, from age 20) × ln(1 + 0.6 × 8% × base ÷ base) × causal × transfer × non-displacement × Houston share]. Health = 0.

CY2023 total expense
14764853 USD (observed). Form 990. [propublica]
Children served 2024
5110 children (observed). GuideStar profile. [guidestar]
Years per match
1.5 years (judgment). Matches are designed to last at least a year; the trial treatment ran 18 months. [bell-2023]
Trial cost per active match
2778 USD (2018) (observed). Agency budgets over matches in the trial. [bell-2023]
Gross earnings gain
0.08 share of base (judgment). Below the observational 19% at ages 20–25; RCT estimate imprecise. [afterschool] [bell-2023]
Base earnings
20000 USD per year (judgment). Sample wages $14,000–16,500 at ages 25–30 (2015 dollars), rising with age and inflation. [bell-2023]
Causal share
0.5 share (judgment). Observational comparison of matched and unmatched applicants. [afterschool]
Transfer to current program
0.6 share (judgment). Today’s mix includes school-based mentoring. [guidestar]

Whole-organization cost per match, half the observational earnings effect: Cost: $433K; Houston health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 7.17. CY2023 expense over 5,110 youth served in 2024, times 1.5 years per match; 8% gross earnings gain from age 20 for 25 years on a $20,000 base; 0.5 causal, 0.6 transfer, 0.9 non-displacement, 0.8 Houston residence.

Cost per match in the trial: Cost: $529K; Houston health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 7.17. $2,778 per active match (2018 dollars) from the trial agencies’ budgets, inflated and times 1.5 years.

Full 19% observational effect: Cost: $433K; Houston health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 33.02. Treats the observational ages-20-25 estimate as causal and persistent.

RCT earnings effect (imprecise) taken as small: Cost: $433K; Houston health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 2.73. A 3% effect, inside the RCT’s wide interval.

Program as tested (community-based) fully transfers: Cost: $433K; Houston health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 11.95. Assumes today’s school-based and community-based mix is as effective as the tested model.

Gains last 10 years: Cost: $433K; Houston health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 3.51. Earnings effect fades by the mid-30s.

No lasting earnings effect: Cost: $433K; Houston health QALYs: 0.00; all-population health QALYs: 0.00. Income-equivalent healthy years: 0.00. College gains do not translate into earnings.

Counterfactual: Waitlisted or never-matched applicants.

Attribution: A gift is credited with the average effect of an added match at whole-organization cost; volunteer supply is a binding constraint not modeled.

Dominated by whether the observational earnings effect is causal and how long it lasts, then transfer to school-based matches.

Sensitivity

  • Cost per match in the trial: $74K per DALY. $2,778 per active match (2018 dollars) from the trial agencies’ budgets, inflated and times 1.5 years.
  • Full 19% observational effect: $13K per DALY. Treats the observational ages-20-25 estimate as causal and persistent.
  • RCT earnings effect (imprecise) taken as small: $159K per DALY. A 3% effect, inside the RCT’s wide interval.
  • Program as tested (community-based) fully transfers: $36K per DALY. Assumes today’s school-based and community-based mix is as effective as the tested model.
  • Gains last 10 years: $123K per DALY. Earnings effect fades by the mid-30s.
  • No lasting earnings effect: no finite positive estimate. College gains do not translate into earnings.

Unresolved inputs

  • Houston matches per year and cost per added match.
  • A precise randomized earnings estimate.
  • Volunteer supply constraints.

Health and income breakdown

For the modeled $433K: 0.00 health QALYs + 7.17 income-equivalent healthy years in Houston: $60K per DALY. Income equivalents are welfare comparisons, not observed QALYs or DALYs.

Method and caveats.

5. Funding and previous grants

Big Brothers Big Sisters Lone Star reported CY2023 revenue of $15.9M, almost all contributions, and expenses of $14.8M, up from $13.1M in 2022 and $12.1M in 2021. A match also needs a volunteer, so whether money alone adds matches is unverified.

Annual expenses

Organization-level spending, including programs, administration and fundraising. The research list averages three comparable, consecutive full fiscal years when available.

  • FY 2021: $12.1M; Big Brothers Big Sisters Lone Star, EIN 75-0800632, 12-month period, IRS Form 990 total functional expenses, calendar year. Source
  • FY 2022: $13.1M; Big Brothers Big Sisters Lone Star, EIN 75-0800632, 12-month period, IRS Form 990 total functional expenses, calendar year. Source
  • FY 2023: $14.8M; Big Brothers Big Sisters Lone Star, EIN 75-0800632, 12-month period, IRS Form 990 total functional expenses, calendar year. Source

6. Sources

  1. Long-Term Impacts of Mentoring for Disadvantaged Youth (conference draft). Bell and Petkova, NBER conference paper. Published: 2023-02-21; retrieved: 2026-10-18.
  2. Long-Term Impacts of Youth Mentorship Program (Bell 2025) in the Policy Impacts Library. Policy Impacts. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-10-18.
  3. Thirty years of data reveal the long-term impact of youth mentoring. Afterschool Alliance. Published: 2025-07-22; retrieved: 2026-10-18.
  4. Big Brothers Big Sisters of America launches research on the long-term impacts of mentorship. Big Brothers Big Sisters of America. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-10-18.
  5. Social Programs That Work: Big Brothers Big Sisters Community-Based Mentoring (Near Top Tier). Arnold Ventures. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-10-18.
  6. Big Brothers Big Sisters Lone Star profile (5,110 children served in 2024). Candid GuideStar. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-10-18.
  7. Meet Houston missions: Big Brothers Big Sisters Lone Star. Simmons and Fletcher. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-10-18.
  8. Big Brothers Big Sisters Lone Star, Form 990 filings (EIN 75-0800632). IRS, hosted by ProPublica. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-10-18.
  9. Cost-effectiveness: health and log-income comparison. Coefficient Giving. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-10-18.