GiveBetter x California

Walk San Francisco

Street safety implementation advocacy, school access and crash-survivor support

Research time: 5 min on GPT-6 Astra Light
  • Research — reviewed programs, finances and impact evidence.

Updated: 2026-09-13

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Summary

What do they do? Walk San Francisco advocates for safer streets and supports people affected by traffic crashes. A gift could help accelerate physical safety improvements, but the city and other advocates already fund and pursue much of this work. The conditional California model therefore values only hypothetical earlier implementation, not all benefits from past policy wins.

Why we’re interested in this organization:

  • Physical traffic-calming has credible external injury evidence and a finite, inspectable health pathway.

  • Current city documents independently acknowledge Walk SF's participation in planning.

  • A focused local program can benefit California residents without the large geographic dilution of national charities.

Our main reservations:

  • No specific unfunded project or measured probability of gift-caused acceleration is verified.

  • External engineering effects do not measure advocacy influence, signage-only effects or California casualty utility.

  • Existing capital plans, other organizations and traffic displacement can sharply reduce marginal credit.

What do you get for your dollar? $4.4M per better life: ten additional quality-adjusted life years in California. Street-safety acceleration only; policy effect modeled.

Additional early exposure-years to a physical traffic-calming package; Incremental fatal and severe nonfatal casualties avoided on disjoint streets; Finite survival and nonfatal impairment QALYs amongCalifornia residents.

1. What do they do?

The recipient is Walk San Francisco Foundation, EIN 47-2000881, not the city agency constructing streets. Its portfolio includes street-design/policy advocacy, school walking programs, community organizing and Families for Safe Streets. The official impact page provides giving links and original returns; the third-party checkout could not be opened in this review. Current portfolio and financial source index

Current Slow Our Streets work seeks traffic-calming designs, safer limits and enforcement. Thirty-three speed-camera locations are already operating. Their historical implementation and observed speeding changes are not benefits created anew by today's ordinary gift. Current Slow Our Streets campaign

The 2025 report describes continued work on city implementation and potential expansion of camera authority, along with survivor support. These are plausible distinct pathways; only a hypothetical physical traffic-calming acceleration is quantified here. No restricted-best-program donation is assumed. 2025 Impact Report, published June 2026

2. Monitoring and information sharing

SFMTA reports 25 traffic deaths in 2025, compared with 43 in 2024. This citywide change is not a causal estimate for Walk SF or for a new gift. 2025 traffic fatality count SFDPH's assessment describes roughly 550 severe traffic injuries per year historically since 2014; it is not a 2025 injury count. The model's paired 25/550 baseline is deliberately labeled constructed. 2024 Community Health Assessment, historical severe-injury context

Grundy and colleagues analyzed London 20 mph zones with physical traffic-calming using a controlled interrupted time series. Overall casualties fell about 42%; restricting analysis to 2000–06 yielded smaller estimates, including about 28% for killed/seriously injured. Death-specific precision was weak. The study adjusted underlying trends and examined nearby roads; it was not randomized and does not prove the same effect for modern San Francisco, speed-limit signs or education alone. Controlled interrupted time series of London 20 mph zones

Meaningful monitoring links a named street package to baseline casualty exposure, a with-gift and without-gift opening date, implemented design, displaced traffic and actual casualties. Meetings, supporters, surveys and adopted resolutions are not substitute health outcomes. Check independent agency plans and co-advocate accounts before assigning contribution.

3. Qualitative assessment

Current agency evidence supports a real participation role without establishing sole credit. September 2026's draft Safe School Connections plan names Walk SF among multiple partners, describes public capital and existing Safe Routes resources, and seeks final approval in late 2026/early 2027. Its long-term reach requires additional staff and finance. This is a live implementation context, not a verified Walk SF funding gap or the model's identified package. Safe School Connections draft approach, September 2026

Survivor support and a more accessible walking environment can be valuable beyond counted physical injuries. They remain unquantified rather than assumed absent. Conversely, street changes require review of emergency access, disability access, diverted traffic, enforcement burdens and opportunity cost; a successful advocacy campaign is not automatically a net health gain.

California includes San Francisco and the rest of the state. People injured on San Francisco streets can live elsewhere, so the model assumes 98% California benefit rather than equating crash location with residence. This is an explicit prior, not measured victim geography; no statewide camera-policy spillover is added.

4. What do you get for your dollar?

The conditional central price is about $4.44 million per 10 California QALYs. It is an analyst scenario, not a measured marginal return or verified project offer. Joint favorable assumptions give about $27,200; an adverse positive case is about $11.46 billion. These are not confidence limits, and null or negative results remain possible.

The model keeps all recipient gift cost. In its $100,000 normalization,60% supports physical implementation work including associated support costs, with the balance assigned to other policy, survivor and shared/reserve work. A 10% joint probability represents the gift actually accelerating a hypothetical package covering 2% of citywide casualty risk by two years. The package opens in year 2; no additional benefit is counted once the baseline package catches up after year 3. There is no second 60% health multiplier.

Conditional on acceleration, fatal risk falls 10% and severe nonfatal risk 20%. Averted deaths receive a finite 30-year utility/survival stream with 2% annual competing mortality; severe injury benefit lasts three years at utility difference 0.1. Discounting separately handles the event date and later health years. This yields 0.229932 all-population QALYs and 0.225333 California QALYs per normalized gift.

The central resource diagnostic assumes $1 million public capital and $20,000 annual maintenance. Charging only expected timing difference against the same later baseline construction produces $109,289 total resource cost; charging expected early capital without credit for the later build produces $200,803. Neither is a complete social-cost estimate. Cash-gift price does not imply the engineering project costs only charitable spending.

Holding every other central input fixed, a $1 million price requires gift-caused acceleration probability about 44.4%, versus 10% central. A $100,000 price would require probability above 100%, so other assumptions must also improve. These are break-even requirements, not evidence that attribution is that large.

Model, assumptions and sensitivity

Entire100000ordinary recipient gift. Allocation60000physical,15000otherpolicy,15000survivor,10000shared/reserve is judgment; physical allocation includes supporting costs. Public construction resources separately stress-tested; no restricted-donation denominator.

California benefit fraction .98central,.99favorable,.9adverse is judgment. IncludesSF+restCalifornia residents; excludes out-of-state visitors. No automatic statewide policy spillover and no duplication with SF/Bay edition donations.

qF=sum(k=1..TF)uF*exp(-hazard*(k-.5))/(1+r)^k. qS=sum(k=1..TS)uS/(1+r)^k. V=sum(t=start..start+delay-1)(1+r)^(-t). Qall=p*b*V*(F*eF*qF+S*eS*qS). QCA=gCA*Qall-H_CA. Price10=10*G/QCA forQCA>0. Ctiming=G+p*[K*((1+r)^(-(start-1))-(1+r)^(-(start+delay-1)))+M*V]. Cgross=G+p*K/(1+r)^(start-1)+p*M*V.

G
100000 USD (judgment). Whole gift normalization, not recommended gift.
physical_allocation
0.6 fraction of whole gift (judgment). 60000 physical implementation staff/support;15000otherpolicy,15000survivors,10000shared/reserve; no second .6 multiplier. [impact]
p
0.1 joint probability of gift-caused acceleration (judgment). Includes donor replacement, coalition alternatives, agency baseline and failure. Not measured from wins. [schools] [capital]
b
0.02 share of baseline casualty risk on package streets (judgment). Hypothetical disjoint package; not street-length share or identified target list.
F
25 traffic fatalities per year (observed). 2025 context applied as assumed future baseline; not25pedestrian-only deaths. [fatal]
S
550 severe nonfatal traffic injuries per year (judgment). Historical approx550severe injuries/year used as constructed nonfatal baseline; reconcile current protocol and fatal overlap before beta. [severe]
eF
0.1 fractional fatality reduction (judgment). Conservative transfer for physical package; fatal evidence uncertain and zero plausible. [causal]
eS
0.2 fractional severe-injury reduction (judgment). Physical traffic-calming transfer, not signage or advocacy alone. [causal]
start
2 year of early exposure (judgment). Package opens at start of year2; outcomes dated yearend.
delay
2 years accelerated (judgment). Onlyyears2–3incremental; no-gift package then catches up. [capital]
uF
0.8 future utility (judgment). Not SF casualty-specific measurement.
hazard
0.02 annual competing mortality hazard (judgment). Includes future causes of death over finite horizon.
TF
30 years (judgment). Finite survival benefit, not full lifetime credited without limit.
uS
0.1 utility loss avoided per severe injury year (judgment). Unverified severity mix, not every injury permanent.
TS
3 years (judgment). Finite nonfatal health loss.
r
0.03 annual discount rate (judgment). Separate event delay and subsequent health duration.
gCA
0.98 California share of net benefit (judgment). Residents from SF/restCalifornia;2% outside-state. Not measured residence share. Sensitivity .9–.99 not confidence bounds.
K
1000000 USD capital per package (judgment). Hypothetical current package cost, not a dated bid.
M
20000 annual USD maintenance (judgment). Hypothetical additional maintenance during acceleration.
H_CA
0 California QALYs (judgment). No independent donor harm central; adverse-harm scenario included.

Conditional central: Cost: $100K; California QALYs: 0.22533298087679837; all-population QALYs: 0.22993161313959018. {"p":0.1,"b":0.02,"F":25,"S":550,"eF":0.1,"eS":0.2,"start":2,"delay":2,"uF":0.8,"hazard":0.02,"TF":30,"uS":0.1,"TS":3,"gCA":0.98,"r":0.03,"K":1000000,"M":20000,"H_CA":0}

Favorable joint stress: Cost: $100K; California QALYs: 36.766773390717894; all-population QALYs: 37.13815494011909. {"p":0.35,"b":0.08,"F":25,"S":550,"eF":0.35,"eS":0.4,"start":2,"delay":5,"uF":0.85,"hazard":0.01,"TF":40,"uS":0.15,"TS":5,"gCA":0.99,"r":0.03,"K":3000000,"M":60000,"H_CA":0}

Adverse positive joint stress: Cost: $100K; California QALYs: 0.00008727473438411503; all-population QALYs: 0.00009697192709346115. {"p":0.01,"b":0.005,"F":15,"S":300,"eF":0.02,"eS":0.05,"start":3,"delay":1,"uF":0.65,"hazard":0.05,"TF":15,"uS":0.03,"TS":1,"gCA":0.9,"r":0.03,"K":300000,"M":10000,"H_CA":0}

No incremental acceleration: Cost: $100K; California QALYs: 0; all-population QALYs: 0. Central exceptp=0; funded agency/coalition work happens on same schedule.

No fatality effect: Cost: $100K; California QALYs: 0.11329386703852336; all-population QALYs: 0.11560598677400342. Central excepteF=0; clinically important sensitivity to imprecise death evidence.

Independent harm exceeds modeled benefit: Cost: $100K; California QALYs: -0.07466701912320162; all-population QALYs: -0.07006838686040981. Central plus0.3CaliforniaQALY independent adverse access/displacement/opportunity harm; hypothetical, not measured.

Counterfactual: Same physical package implemented later by public agency/coalition baseline. p jointly includes donor replacement and unique influence; no additional arbitrary attribution multiplier. Only acceleration window counts. Existing cameras/capital not newly purchased by gift.

Attribution: Risk share on disjoint package streets, not share of street length. Separate fatal/nonfatal injury categories; reduce intervention priors for transfer/displacement and subtract independent donor harms. No add-on for overlapping survivor distress, physical activity, emissions or other advocates' projects.

All influence, targeting, effect-transfer, utility, duration, geography and cost inputs are judgments.Observed25fatalities and historicalseverecontext do not establish future package risk. Scenarios illustrate sensitivity, not statistical bounds; no verified project.

Sensitivity

  • p=.01or.35alone multiplies central benefit by.1or3.5; do not combine nonindependent donor and coalition multipliers twice.
  • Central qF12.308049,qS.282861,V1.857738; independently recalculated from finite formulas.
  • WithgCA=.9or1andotherscentral,priceabout$4.83mor$4.35m; geography less decisive than influence and targetrisk.
  • Do not import London all-casualty reduction as a precise SF fatal effect; fatal-null case remains.
  • Central timing resource and gross-forward costs are109288.68784243458and200802.8537777505; opportunity costs/trafficaccess mayadd harms.
  • Physical engineering model cannot price a signage-only, education-only or already-installed-camera gift.

Unresolved inputs

  • Verified ordinary-gift allocation and costed additional staff/organizing tranche.
  • Named package's agency-funded baseline opening date and gift-induced change probability.
  • Current disjoint street exposure, severity definition and California victim residence.
  • Design-specific net injury effect including traffic displacement and accessibility.
  • Victim age/utility/survival and nonfatal duration; avoid fatal/severe overlap.
  • Current engineering capital/maintenance costs and public opportunity costs.
  • Marginal survivor-support/other-policy outcomes not quantified inpartial health model.

5. Funding and previous grants

Original accrual Form 990 functional expenses were $863,052, $921,193 and $981,449 for June-ending fiscal years 2023–2025. Separately netted event costs are added to the gross spending comparison below. Original FY 2023–24 Form 990 with prior-year comparative

The 2025 return allocates $513,353 to programs, $252,527 to management/general and $215,569 to fundraising. Revenue is $894,475, including $198,441 government grants. Net assets are $885,931, with $50,000 restricted. These original figures do not establish present spare capacity or an unfunded advocacy tranche. The return indicates compiled/reviewed statements, not an independent financial audit. Original FY 2024–25 Form 990

The public construction counterfactual is substantial. SFMTA's May 2026 capital update says its planned improvements reach 62% of the High Injury Network. It already has funded quick-build and other safety projects. A donation could change timing/design, but cannot claim all existing planned benefits. Current planned street-safety capital projects

The June 2026 Safety Zone initiative also includes an already-approved Community Corners program. Its existence updates older descriptions of pending daylighting commitments; do not treat an approved agency initiative as a new philanthropic purchase. Safety Zone program and Community Corners approval

Before relying on the estimate, ask for a costed staffing or organizing increment, the exact agency bottleneck, project risk exposure, capital availability and expected opening date without the new work. Financial deficit alone does not answer those questions.

For a consistent gross-spending comparison, the annual figures add direct event costs netted against revenue: $39,957 in FY 2023, $26,021 in FY 2024 and $11,246 in FY 2025. Gross totals are therefore $903,009, $947,214 and $992,695; their mean is $947,639.33. These organizational size figures do not change the separate gift-based health calculation.

Annual expenses

Organization-level spending, including programs, administration and fundraising. The research list averages three comparable, consecutive full fiscal years when available.

  • FY 2023: $903K; Walk San Francisco Foundation,EIN47-2000881, 12-month period, Accrual Form 990 functional expenses plus direct fundraising-event costs netted against revenue; June-ending fiscal year, gross expense basis.. Source
  • FY 2024: $947K; Walk San Francisco Foundation,EIN47-2000881, 12-month period, Accrual Form 990 functional expenses plus direct fundraising-event costs netted against revenue; June-ending fiscal year, gross expense basis.. Source
  • FY 2025: $993K; Walk San Francisco Foundation,EIN47-2000881, 12-month period, Accrual Form 990 functional expenses plus direct fundraising-event costs netted against revenue; June-ending fiscal year, gross expense basis.. Source

6. Sources

  1. Current Slow Our Streets campaign. Walk San Francisco. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-09-13.
  2. Current portfolio and financial source index. Walk San Francisco. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-09-13.
  3. 2025 Impact Report, published June2026. Walk San Francisco. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-09-13.
  4. Original FY2024–25 Form990. Walk San Francisco Foundation. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-09-13.
  5. Original FY2023–24 Form990 with prior-year comparative. Walk San Francisco Foundation. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-09-13.
  6. 2025 traffic fatality count. SFMTA. Published: 2026-01-08; retrieved: 2026-09-13.
  7. 2024 Community Health Assessment, historical severe-injury context. SF Department of Public Health. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-09-13.
  8. Controlled interrupted time series of London20mph zones. Grundy et al., BMJ. Published: 2009-12-10; retrieved: 2026-09-13.
  9. Current planned street-safety capital projects. SFMTA. Published: 2026-05-05; retrieved: 2026-09-13.
  10. Safe School Connections draft approach, September2026. SFMTA. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-09-13.
  11. Safety Zone program and Community Corners approval. SFMTA. Published: 2026-06-17; retrieved: 2026-09-13.
  12. Original FY 2022–23 Form 990, including separately netted event costs. Walk San Francisco Foundation. Published: not stated; retrieved: 2026-09-14.