{"schemaVersion":"1.0.0","modelId":"walk-sf-whole-portfolio-v1","reviewDate":"2026-09-08","status":"Independently audited conditional analyst partial-health model; not measured attribution or a verified offer","organization":{"name":"Walk San Francisco","legalRecipient":"Walk San Francisco Foundation","ein":"47-2000881","identitySource":"https://walksf.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/irs-determination-letter.pdf","givingRoute":"https://walksf.org/about-us/our-impact/","givingMeaning":"Official page supplies donation link; no verified restricted tranche or current spare capacity"},"giftUsd":100000,"allocationUsd":{"physicalStreetImplementation":60000,"otherPolicyAndEducation":15000,"survivorFamilySupport":15000,"sharedReserveOther":10000},"allocationBasis":"Judgmental unrestricted portfolio; all100K costed. Required staff/management/fundraising for physical implementation included in60K; other shared reserve not a second charge. Only physical street safety quantified; allocation weights are not audited program budgets.","historicalFinance":{"period":"July1,2024–June30,2025","source":"https://walksf.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/wsff-24-25-taxfinal-990.public.pdf","type":"Provider-posted Form990, not audited financial statements","expenses":981449,"programExpenses":513353,"managementGeneral":252527,"fundraising":215569,"revenue":894475,"netAssets":885931,"meaning":"Gift is about10% historicalexpense. Historical gains and financial deficit are not marginal attribution or room."},"unit":"Whole gift's60K physical-street work may accelerate one hypothetical bundled SF traffic-calming package. No specific unfunded project or risk-targeted street list verified. Other campaigns unquantified, not assumed valueless.","mechanism":"Non-electoral engineering implementation advocacy, resident engagement and accountability leading to additional early traffic-calming; NOT education alone, speed-limit signs alone, already funded cameras, or a new claim on citywide fatality decline.","additionalityMeaning":"p is the joint probability that this gift-funded work causes a package to open earlier than no-gift public/coalition baseline, including failure, donor replacement and other advocates. Conditional benefit then applies for delayYears before baseline catches up. No additional funding multiplier or second60% multiplier.","overlap":"Package street exposure must be disjoint from other funded projects/cameras and SPUR/transit claims. Fatal and nonfatal severe casualties separate. Injury reductions are net of displacement and shared transport harms in positive priors; independently caused donor harm separate. No activity, air-quality, survivor distress or citywide policy add-on.","geography":"Events occur on SF streets, but people need not reside inSF. Explicit SF/restBay/outsideBay shares sum1. OutsideBay benefit excluded from Bay and SF headline. Bay includesSF; same100K gift. No inference that every street user is local.","duration":"Open package at beginning startYear; count incremental risk reduction in years startYear..startYear+delayYears−1 only, event impacts dated endyear. No-gift package arrives afterdelay. Death QALYtail finite15/30/40years; severe tail1/3/5years. Discount at3% once for eventdate and once within subsequent health trajectory (different time intervals).","formulas":{"fatalQPerAvertedDeath":"sum(k=1..fatalHorizonYears) baselineUtility*exp(-competingHazard*(k−.5))/(1.03)^k","nonfatalQPerAvertedInjury":"sum(k=1..severeDurationYears) severeUtilityLoss/(1.03)^k; injury category and duration judgments, not measuredSFutility","eventWindowPV":"sum(t=startYear..startYear+delayYears−1)(1.03)^(-t)","health":"grossAllRecipientQ=p*targetRiskShare*eventWindowPV*(annualFatalities*fatalRRR*fatalQ+annualSevereNonfatal*severeRRR*severeQ); geographical shares then independent donor harm","donorCost":"entire100K in allcases; ratio10*100K/netQ onlyifpositive","timingResourceCost":"100K +p*[packageCapital*((1.03)^(-(startYear−1))−(1.03)^(-(startYear+delayYears−1))) + annualMaintenance*eventWindowPV]. Narrow matched-build timing comparison, not fullsocialcost; assumes samecapital otherwise incurred later.","grossResourceStress":"100K+p*packageCapital/(1.03)^(startYear−1)+p*annualMaintenance*eventWindowPV. Charges expected earlycapitalwithoutcrediting laterbaselinebuild; conservativegross-forward envelope, not netincremental societalcost."},"sourceStatus":"All p,targetriskshare,cost,RRR,utility,survival,duration andresidenceinputs judgments.25fatalities2025 and550historicalaveragesevere are primary numerical context; usingthem jointly is a constructed baseline, not contemporaneous2025severe table.","sources":[{"id":"program","publisher":"Walk San Francisco","title":"Slow Our Streets, 2026 campaign","url":"https://walksf.org/slow-our-streets/","date":"Undated current2026 page","meaning":"Actual campaign and existing33 cameras; not injurycausality","accessed":"September8,2026"},{"id":"portfolio","publisher":"Walk San Francisco","title":"2025 Impact Report","url":"https://walksf.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/walksf-impact-report-2026_final.pdf","date":"2025 report; postedJune2026","meaning":"Organization portfolio/claimedhistoricalcontribution, not giftattribution","accessed":"September8,2026"},{"id":"finance","publisher":"Walk San Francisco Foundation","title":"FY2024–25 Form990","url":"https://walksf.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/wsff-24-25-taxfinal-990.public.pdf","date":"July1,2024–June30,2025; preparerMay14,2026","meaning":"Pages1 and10 via directPDF layouttext; EIN/expense verified","accessed":"September8,2026"},{"id":"identity","publisher":"IRS, hosted by organization","title":"Determination letter","url":"https://walksf.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/irs-determination-letter.pdf","date":"February26,2015; exemptioneffectiveSeptember14,2014","meaning":"EIN472000881; historicaldetermination not freshTEOSeligibilityaudit","accessed":"September8,2026"},{"id":"fatal","publisher":"SFMTA","title":"Traffic Fatalities Drop by Nearly Half in2025","url":"https://www.sfmta.com/press-releases/press-release-san-francisco-traffic-fatalities-drop-nearly-half-2025","date":"January8,2026","meaning":"25deaths2025vs43in2024; no causaladvocacycredit","accessed":"September8,2026"},{"id":"severe","publisher":"SFDPH","title":"Community Health Assessment2024","url":"https://media.api.sf.gov/documents/San_Francisco_Population_Health_CHA_2024_2025-04.cleaned.pdf","date":"2024; cleanedApril2025","meaning":"Printed58/PDFpage58 historicalaverage550severe/year since2014, NOT2025count","accessed":"September8,2026"},{"id":"causal","publisher":"Grundy et al., BMJ / LSHTM","title":"Effect of20mphtraffic speedzones on roadinjuries","url":"https://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/4370/1/bmj.b4469.pdf","date":"December10,2009","meaning":"Controlledinterruptedtime-series London1986–2006; physicalzones not simplesignage. FatalCIcrosseszero; recentperiodsmaller.","accessed":"September8,2026"},{"id":"baseline","publisher":"SFMTA","title":"District2 Safety Study","url":"https://www.sfmta.com/projects/district-2-safety-study","date":"Undated currentpage; checkedSeptember8,2026","meaning":"Publicfundedbaseline; internallyinconsistenttimeline2027completed vsfuturecompletion; do notassertnewgiftproject","accessed":"September8,2026"},{"id":"targeting","publisher":"SFMTA","title":"New High Injury Network map","url":"https://www.sfmta.com/fr/node/45244","date":"2026 currentpage","meaning":"2020–24data13%streets74%serious/fatal; not modeledpackageexposure","accessed":"September8,2026"},{"id":"costcontext","publisher":"SFMTA","title":"Laurel Heights/Jordan Park historicaltrafficcalming plan","url":"https://www.sfmta.com/tl/media/2013/download?inline=","date":"FY2012–17schedule, not2026price","meaning":"Indexedprimarycostcontext only; oldhumps7.1K/11K, no 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