{"model":{"version":"vision-to-learn-whole-gift-v2","as_of":"2026-09-08","organization":"Vision To Learn","ein":"45-3457853","status":"conditional analyst model, independently audited; no verified funding offer","gift_scope":"Ordinary unrestricted US organization gift. One full gift across US/Bay/SF ledgers; Bay includes SF, not additive.","sources":[{"id":"identity","publisher":"Vision To Learn","title":"Annual Reports and legal identity","date":"current page, accessed September 8, 2026","url":"https://visiontolearn.org/annual-reports/"},{"id":"finance","publisher":"Vision To Learn","title":"2024–2025 Annual Report","date":"FY2024–2025; accessed September 8, 2026","url":"https://visiontolearn.org/wp-content/uploads/VTL_AnnualReport_2025_20-ocr.pdf"},{"id":"historical_cost","publisher":"Vision To Learn","title":"A Decade of Progress","date":"2022-era narrative, not a current quote; accessed September 8, 2026","url":"https://visiontolearn.org/wp-content/uploads/VTL-A-Decade-of-Progress.pdf"},{"id":"bay_service","publisher":"Vision To Learn","title":"Northern California","date":"current page accessed September 8, 2026","url":"https://visiontolearn.org/where-we-work/northern-california/"},{"id":"historic_regional","publisher":"Vision To Learn","title":"California regional report","date":"2022–2023 output; accessed September 8, 2026","url":"https://visiontolearn.org/wp-content/uploads/California_RegionalPages_10.pdf"},{"id":"mos","publisher":"California DHCS","title":"Mobile Optometric Services Program","date":"current page accessed September 8, 2026","url":"https://www.dhcs.ca.gov/services/medi-cal-resources/medi-cal-eligibility-division/mobile-optometric-services-mos-program/"},{"id":"mos_financing","publisher":"California DHCS","title":"MOS Frequently Asked Questions","date":"current page accessed September 8, 2026","url":"https://www.dhcs.ca.gov/services/medi-cal-resources/medi-cal-eligibility-division/frequently-asked-questions-mos-faqs/"},{"id":"mos_donor","publisher":"California DHCS","title":"How do I become a donor?","date":"current page accessed September 8, 2026","url":"https://www.dhcs.ca.gov/services/medi-cal-resources/medi-cal-eligibility-division/how-do-i-become-a-donor/"},{"id":"acuity","publisher":"Guo et al.; Harvard author institution","title":"Visual acuity and refractive findings in children prescribed glasses from a school-based vision program","date":"J AAPOS 2021; PMID34752908; abstract read September 8, 2026","url":"https://eye.hms.harvard.edu/publications/visual-acuity-and-refractive-findings-children-prescribed-glasses-school-based"},{"id":"education","publisher":"Neitzel et al.; JAMA Ophthalmology","title":"Effect of a Randomized Interventional School-Based Vision Program on Academic Performance of Students in Grades 3 to 7","date":"September 9, 2021; indexed primary text accessed September 8, 2026","url":"https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamaophthalmology/fullarticle/2783867"},{"id":"wear","publisher":"Yi et al.; Ophthalmology/PubMed","title":"Impact of Free Glasses and a Teacher Incentive on Children's Use of Eyeglasses","date":"2015; primary abstract indexed September 8, 2026; subsequent open429","url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26275472/"},{"id":"not_utility","publisher":"Zhou et al.; Acta Ophthalmologica/PubMed","title":"Self-refraction, ready-made glasses and quality of life among rural myopic Chinese children","date":"2017; PMID27321197; primary abstract accessed September 8, 2026","url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27321197/"},{"id":"adult_not_transfer","publisher":"Angell et al.; BMJ Open Ophthalmology/PubMed","title":"Ready-made and custom-made eyeglasses in India: a cost-effectiveness analysis of a randomised controlled trial","date":"February9,2018; primary abstract accessed September8,2026","url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29657979/"},{"id":"sustained_acuity","publisher":"Mudie et al.; Johns Hopkins University","title":"Baltimore Reading and Eye Disease Study: vision outcomes of school-based eye care","date":"February2022; primary institutional abstract read September8,2026","url":"https://pure.johnshopkins.edu/en/publications/baltimore-reading-and-eye-disease-study-vision-outcomes-of-school/"},{"id":"breds_support","publisher":"Johns Hopkins Medicine","title":"Baltimore Reading and Eye Disease Study","date":"current institutional page read September8,2026","url":"https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/wilmer/research/dana-center/research/breds"},{"id":"delivery_support","publisher":"Vision for Baltimore","title":"For Families","date":"current partner page read September8,2026; replacement windows internally inconsistent","url":"https://visionforbaltimore.org/for-families/"}],"formulas":{"public":"G*f*ca*m; m is NEW public funding per CA donor core dollar, not existing reimbursements","children":"(G*f+public)/C; C is complete delivery cash per clinically indicated delivered child including allocated failed screens/exams/noncompletion","discounted_years":"integral 0..T of (1+r)^(-t) dt","health":"base_N*A*(gap*wear*u*D(T)-shared_harm)*discount(d) + match_N*A*(gap*wear*u*D(T)-shared_harm)*discount(d) - independent_donor_harm; geography applied separately by tranche","cost":"G+new_public+N*in_kind; no healthcare savings or baseline public money added","ratios":"10*cost/health only when health>0, otherwise null","geography":"base shared health times ordinary Bay/SF share + California match shared health times CA-conditional Bay/SF share - independent donor harm times ordinary Bay/SF share","timing":"d is donation-to-dispensing calendar delay; D(T) integrates health for T years AFTER dispensing; shared harm at dispensing; independent donor harm at donation. Complete nominal committed costs at donation."},"boundaries":["All numeric scenario inputs are analyst judgments except gift and chosen discount convention. No claimed trial utility calibration.","Cost includes completed-child delivery and allocated upstream attrition; no extra completion probability.","Core fraction funds delivery; remaining fraction funds shared institutional overhead, fundraising and unquantified research/advocacy; complete gift remains numerator.","A is donor-to-net-new-service financial replacement; gap is absent adequate correction among those extra recipients. Wear is corrected-time fraction, not separate efficacy multiplier.","T is finite time before no-new-gift care catches up, with no lifetime educational or amblyopia tail. Two-year scenario requires replacement/follow-up cash in C.","Benefit utility averages refractive severity among delivered children; not every child is assumed visually impaired by WHO criteria.","Public-match sensitivity is hypothetical new cash, conditional on authority, donor eligibility, claims and capacity; no automatic match for unrestricted gifts. No additionality multiplication applied to its gross resource accounting.","Unique child-course only; second pairs/replacements protect duration rather than create extra utility. No PHC adult or partner glasses duplicate credit.","Base Bay/SF resident shares and matching-tranche conditional California resident shares are separate analyst priors, not observed beneficiary fractions. Matching cash funds only California care; no cross-state fungibility benefit claimed.","Donation-to-dispensing delay is an explicit judgment: central1.5months, favorable1month, pessimistic3months. Primary reports weeks after examination, not after gift. Care advantage T starts at dispensing and ends d+T; no benefit during waiting. Shared harm at d; donor-independent harm at0."],"scenarios":[{"id":"central","inputs":{"gift_usd":100000,"core_fraction":0.8,"cash_cost_per_delivered_child":225,"in_kind_per_child":40,"california_budget_fraction":0.4,"incremental_public_per_ca_donor":0,"funding_additionality":0.5,"uncorrected_counterfactual_fraction":0.6,"wear_fraction":0.6,"utility_gain_while_worn":0.02,"incremental_calendar_years":1,"discount_rate":0.03,"shared_harm_qaly_per_child":0.00005,"independent_donor_harm_qaly":0,"bay_share":0.08,"sf_share":0.015,"donation_to_dispensing_years":0.125,"match_ca_bay_share":0.2,"match_ca_sf_share":0.0375},"outputs":{"public_usd":0,"base_delivered_children":355.55555555555554,"match_delivered_children":0,"modeled_delivered_children":355.55555555555554,"discounted_years":0.9853651495829748,"dispensing_discount":0.9963119672798975,"calendar_health_end":1.125,"us_qaly":1.2477596896818608,"bay_qaly":0.09982077517454886,"sf_qaly":0.018716395345227912,"donor_usd":100000,"gross_resource_usd":114222.22222222222,"donor_per10_us":801436.3729405046,"gross_resource_per10_us":915418.4348698207,"donor_per10_bay":10017954.661756307,"gross_resource_per10_bay":11442730.43587276,"donor_per10_sf":53429091.52936697,"gross_resource_per10_sf":61027895.65798805}},{"id":"favorable","inputs":{"gift_usd":100000,"core_fraction":0.9,"cash_cost_per_delivered_child":150,"in_kind_per_child":25,"california_budget_fraction":0.4,"incremental_public_per_ca_donor":0,"funding_additionality":0.8,"uncorrected_counterfactual_fraction":0.9,"wear_fraction":0.8,"utility_gain_while_worn":0.04,"incremental_calendar_years":2,"discount_rate":0.03,"shared_harm_qaly_per_child":0.00002,"independent_donor_harm_qaly":0,"bay_share":0.15,"sf_share":0.04,"donation_to_dispensing_years":0.08333333333333333,"match_ca_bay_share":0.2,"match_ca_sf_share":0.0375},"outputs":{"public_usd":0,"base_delivered_children":600,"match_delivered_children":0,"modeled_delivered_children":600,"discounted_years":1.9420303433528543,"dispensing_discount":0.997539797750139,"calendar_health_end":2.0833333333333335,"us_qaly":26.771002951157175,"bay_qaly":4.015650442673576,"sf_qaly":1.070840118046287,"donor_usd":100000,"gross_resource_usd":115000,"donor_per10_us":37353.848932162444,"gross_resource_per10_us":42956.926271986806,"donor_per10_bay":249025.65954774962,"gross_resource_per10_bay":286379.50847991207,"donor_per10_sf":933846.223304061,"gross_resource_per10_sf":1073923.1567996703}},{"id":"pessimistic","inputs":{"gift_usd":100000,"core_fraction":0.65,"cash_cost_per_delivered_child":400,"in_kind_per_child":75,"california_budget_fraction":0.4,"incremental_public_per_ca_donor":0,"funding_additionality":0.2,"uncorrected_counterfactual_fraction":0.3,"wear_fraction":0.3,"utility_gain_while_worn":0.005,"incremental_calendar_years":0.5,"discount_rate":0.03,"shared_harm_qaly_per_child":0.00005,"independent_donor_harm_qaly":0,"bay_share":0.03,"sf_share":0.003,"donation_to_dispensing_years":0.25,"match_ca_bay_share":0.2,"match_ca_sf_share":0.0375},"outputs":{"public_usd":0,"base_delivered_children":162.5,"match_delivered_children":0,"modeled_delivered_children":162.5,"discounted_years":0.49632328522051433,"dispensing_discount":0.9926375361451395,"calendar_health_end":0.75,"us_qaly":0.0055922499272406554,"bay_qaly":0.00016776749781721967,"sf_qaly":0.000016776749781721966,"donor_usd":100000,"gross_resource_usd":112187.5,"donor_per10_us":178818903.48441973,"gross_resource_per10_us":200612457.34658337,"donor_per10_bay":5960630116.147325,"gross_resource_per10_bay":6687081911.552779,"donor_per10_sf":59606301161.47324,"gross_resource_per10_sf":66870819115.527794}},{"id":"central_conditional_public_match","inputs":{"gift_usd":100000,"core_fraction":0.8,"cash_cost_per_delivered_child":225,"in_kind_per_child":40,"california_budget_fraction":0.4,"incremental_public_per_ca_donor":1,"funding_additionality":0.5,"uncorrected_counterfactual_fraction":0.6,"wear_fraction":0.6,"utility_gain_while_worn":0.02,"incremental_calendar_years":1,"discount_rate":0.03,"shared_harm_qaly_per_child":0.00005,"independent_donor_harm_qaly":0,"bay_share":0.08,"sf_share":0.015,"donation_to_dispensing_years":0.125,"match_ca_bay_share":0.2,"match_ca_sf_share":0.0375},"outputs":{"public_usd":32000,"base_delivered_children":355.55555555555554,"match_delivered_children":142.22222222222223,"modeled_delivered_children":497.77777777777777,"discounted_years":0.9853651495829748,"dispensing_discount":0.9963119672798975,"calendar_health_end":1.125,"us_qaly":1.7468635655546052,"bay_qaly":0.19964155034909775,"sf_qaly":0.037432790690455825,"donor_usd":100000,"gross_resource_usd":151911.11111111112,"donor_per10_us":572454.5521003604,"gross_resource_per10_us":869622.0707017919,"donor_per10_bay":5008977.3308781525,"gross_resource_per10_bay":7609193.118640679,"donor_per10_sf":26714545.764683485,"gross_resource_per10_sf":40582363.29941696}},{"id":"zero_financial_additionality","inputs":{"gift_usd":100000,"core_fraction":0.8,"cash_cost_per_delivered_child":225,"in_kind_per_child":40,"california_budget_fraction":0.4,"incremental_public_per_ca_donor":0,"funding_additionality":0,"uncorrected_counterfactual_fraction":0.6,"wear_fraction":0.6,"utility_gain_while_worn":0.02,"incremental_calendar_years":1,"discount_rate":0.03,"shared_harm_qaly_per_child":0.00005,"independent_donor_harm_qaly":0,"bay_share":0.08,"sf_share":0.015,"donation_to_dispensing_years":0.125,"match_ca_bay_share":0.2,"match_ca_sf_share":0.0375},"outputs":{"public_usd":0,"base_delivered_children":355.55555555555554,"match_delivered_children":0,"modeled_delivered_children":355.55555555555554,"discounted_years":0.9853651495829748,"dispensing_discount":0.9963119672798975,"calendar_health_end":1.125,"us_qaly":0,"bay_qaly":0,"sf_qaly":0,"donor_usd":100000,"gross_resource_usd":114222.22222222222,"donor_per10_us":null,"gross_resource_per10_us":null,"donor_per10_bay":null,"gross_resource_per10_bay":null,"donor_per10_sf":null,"gross_resource_per10_sf":null}},{"id":"zero_clinical_gain","inputs":{"gift_usd":100000,"core_fraction":0.8,"cash_cost_per_delivered_child":225,"in_kind_per_child":40,"california_budget_fraction":0.4,"incremental_public_per_ca_donor":0,"funding_additionality":0.5,"uncorrected_counterfactual_fraction":0.6,"wear_fraction":0.6,"utility_gain_while_worn":0,"incremental_calendar_years":1,"discount_rate":0.03,"shared_harm_qaly_per_child":0,"independent_donor_harm_qaly":0,"bay_share":0.08,"sf_share":0.015,"donation_to_dispensing_years":0.125,"match_ca_bay_share":0.2,"match_ca_sf_share":0.0375},"outputs":{"public_usd":0,"base_delivered_children":355.55555555555554,"match_delivered_children":0,"modeled_delivered_children":355.55555555555554,"discounted_years":0.9853651495829748,"dispensing_discount":0.9963119672798975,"calendar_health_end":1.125,"us_qaly":0,"bay_qaly":0,"sf_qaly":0,"donor_usd":100000,"gross_resource_usd":114222.22222222222,"donor_per10_us":null,"gross_resource_per10_us":null,"donor_per10_bay":null,"gross_resource_per10_bay":null,"donor_per10_sf":null,"gross_resource_per10_sf":null}},{"id":"no_gain_shared_harm","inputs":{"gift_usd":100000,"core_fraction":0.8,"cash_cost_per_delivered_child":225,"in_kind_per_child":40,"california_budget_fraction":0.4,"incremental_public_per_ca_donor":0,"funding_additionality":0.5,"uncorrected_counterfactual_fraction":0.6,"wear_fraction":0.6,"utility_gain_while_worn":0,"incremental_calendar_years":1,"discount_rate":0.03,"shared_harm_qaly_per_child":0.00005,"independent_donor_harm_qaly":0,"bay_share":0.08,"sf_share":0.015,"donation_to_dispensing_years":0.125,"match_ca_bay_share":0.2,"match_ca_sf_share":0.0375},"outputs":{"public_usd":0,"base_delivered_children":355.55555555555554,"match_delivered_children":0,"modeled_delivered_children":355.55555555555554,"discounted_years":0.9853651495829748,"dispensing_discount":0.9963119672798975,"calendar_health_end":1.125,"us_qaly":-0.00885610637582131,"bay_qaly":-0.0007084885100657049,"sf_qaly":-0.00013284159563731966,"donor_usd":100000,"gross_resource_usd":114222.22222222222,"donor_per10_us":null,"gross_resource_per10_us":null,"donor_per10_bay":null,"gross_resource_per10_bay":null,"donor_per10_sf":null,"gross_resource_per10_sf":null}},{"id":"zero_additionality_independent_harm","inputs":{"gift_usd":100000,"core_fraction":0.8,"cash_cost_per_delivered_child":225,"in_kind_per_child":40,"california_budget_fraction":0.4,"incremental_public_per_ca_donor":0,"funding_additionality":0,"uncorrected_counterfactual_fraction":0.6,"wear_fraction":0.6,"utility_gain_while_worn":0.02,"incremental_calendar_years":1,"discount_rate":0.03,"shared_harm_qaly_per_child":0.00005,"independent_donor_harm_qaly":0.1,"bay_share":0.08,"sf_share":0.015,"donation_to_dispensing_years":0.125,"match_ca_bay_share":0.2,"match_ca_sf_share":0.0375},"outputs":{"public_usd":0,"base_delivered_children":355.55555555555554,"match_delivered_children":0,"modeled_delivered_children":355.55555555555554,"discounted_years":0.9853651495829748,"dispensing_discount":0.9963119672798975,"calendar_health_end":1.125,"us_qaly":-0.1,"bay_qaly":-0.008,"sf_qaly":-0.0015,"donor_usd":100000,"gross_resource_usd":114222.22222222222,"donor_per10_us":null,"gross_resource_per10_us":null,"donor_per10_bay":null,"gross_resource_per10_bay":null,"donor_per10_sf":null,"gross_resource_per10_sf":null}},{"id":"central_three_month_catchup","inputs":{"gift_usd":100000,"core_fraction":0.8,"cash_cost_per_delivered_child":225,"in_kind_per_child":40,"california_budget_fraction":0.4,"incremental_public_per_ca_donor":0,"funding_additionality":0.5,"uncorrected_counterfactual_fraction":0.6,"wear_fraction":0.6,"utility_gain_while_worn":0.02,"incremental_calendar_years":0.25,"discount_rate":0.03,"shared_harm_qaly_per_child":0.00005,"independent_donor_harm_qaly":0,"bay_share":0.08,"sf_share":0.015,"donation_to_dispensing_years":0.125,"match_ca_bay_share":0.2,"match_ca_sf_share":0.0375},"outputs":{"public_usd":0,"base_delivered_children":355.55555555555554,"match_delivered_children":0,"modeled_delivered_children":355.555555555555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new-match health has explicit conditional resident shares; gift-to-dispensing discount added to health and shared service harm. Original scenarios preserved in v1 archive; no cost, utility, wear, catch-up duration or core allocation 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