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Licensing, room and transport need pricing."},{"key":"hypothesizedEndpointUtility","label":"Hypothesized endpoint utility gain","basis":"Independent calibration of .04, not a securely verified endpoint coefficient: Li/Harmer prose describes utility difference but its methods multiply by duration and table labels .04 incremental QALYs. Our duration/onset assumptions are not a correction to that paper."},{"key":"horizonYears","label":"Modeled follow-up horizon","basis":"Rounded six-month horizon (0.5 year), not exactly 24/52 years. No persistence beyond follow-up."},{"key":"onsetFraction","label":"Benefit onset over follow-up","basis":"50% assumes linear growth from zero to the hypothesized endpoint. Judgment, not adherence. No second attendance adjustment."},{"key":"localTransfer","label":"Local fidelity and population retention","basis":"50% subjective retention for proposed curriculum, high-risk recruitment and realistic local alternatives. Reference comparison is stretching, not no exercise or current Sun-style tai chi."},{"key":"additionality","label":"Additional funded capacity","basis":"50% assumed net added places after replacement funding. No verified current offer."}],"unitAmbiguity":"If .04 is used directly as the paper's integrated QALYs, with the same cost/transfer/additionality and no extra duration/onset, the central price is $600,000 per 10 QALYs. Our independent endpoint bridge gives $2.4M. Neither is a measured local effect.","nullBoundary":"Null or harm remains possible. The favorable/unfavorable combinations are analyst scenarios, not a confidence interval. No finite positive price exists at zero or negative benefit.","fundingRoom":{"verifiedUsd":null,"status":"unverified","nextEvidence":"Named curriculum and qualified instructors, high-risk eligibility, active cohort budget and post-March-2026 funding plan."},"excluded":["Additional fall-injury, mortality or healthcare-savings gains on top of health utility","Current six-week Sun-style service treated as the 24-week trial","Expired CalFresh closeout budget interpreted as current funding room"],"sources":[{"publisher":"Self-Help for the Elderly","title":"Tai Chi service","url":"https://www.selfhelpelderly.org/our-services/activity-centers/tai-chi","published":"Undated current page","retrieved":"2026-09-07","sourceType":"Six-week Sun-style Tai Chi for Arthritis and Fall Prevention; not verified TJQMBB"},{"publisher":"San Francisco Human Services Agency","title":"CalFresh Healthy Living closeout grant","url":"https://www.sfhsa.org/sites/default/files/media/document/2025-12/self-help_for_the_elderly_calfresh_healthy_living_program.pdf","published":"2026-01-07 commission item","retrieved":"2026-09-07","sourceType":"January–March 2026 mixed exercise/wind-down budget, not current course price"},{"publisher":"Li et al.","title":"Therapeutic tai ji quan randomized trial","url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30208396/","published":"2018","retrieved":"2026-09-07","sourceType":"670 high-fall-risk older adults; 24-week intervention versus stretching"},{"publisher":"Li and Harmer et al.","title":"Trial economic evaluation","url":"https://academic.oup.com/biomedgerontology/article/74/9/1504/5284888","published":"2019-01-10","retrieved":"2026-09-07","sourceType":"Utility/QALY wording ambiguity; not a local marginal-donation ICER"},{"publisher":"Day et al.","title":"Tai Chi fall-prevention randomized trial","url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25769960/","published":"2015","retrieved":"2026-09-07","sourceType":"Disconfirming Sun-style evidence in relatively well older adults"}]},"evaluated":[{"inputs":{"name":"Favorable positive","courseCost":300,"hypothesizedEndpointUtility":0.06,"horizonYears":0.5,"onsetFraction":0.5,"localTransfer":0.75,"additionality":0.75},"result":{"qalysPerCourse":0.0084375,"costPerTenQalys":355555.5555555555,"additionalQalys":2.8125}},{"inputs":{"name":"Central analyst estimate","courseCost":600,"hypothesizedEndpointUtility":0.04,"horizonYears":0.5,"onsetFraction":0.5,"localTransfer":0.5,"additionality":0.5},"result":{"qalysPerCourse":0.0025,"costPerTenQalys":2400000,"additionalQalys":0.41666666666666663}},{"inputs":{"name":"Unfavorable positive","courseCost":1200,"hypothesizedEndpointUtility":0.01,"horizonYears":0.5,"onsetFraction":0.25,"localTransfer":0.25,"additionality":0.25},"result":{"qalysPerCourse":0.000078125,"costPerTenQalys":153600000,"additionalQalys":0.006510416666666666}}],"hashes":{"data/san-francisco/selfhelp-falls-cea-v1.json":"d9acac1a3dffd084fd418018c01e7328181ff93951cfa69697978a40894b7b4e","lib/falls-course-model.mjs":"ebeabe9ab79b7a60869d35a596486fc9044d74d15fe7a34bd9fb77e754aa0438","app/charities/self-help-for-the-elderly/page.tsx":"b3eb7f52c24d7f42497e68cecc4afcdfa2859ef790f1283dff964e8b9faa9dc6","app/api/sf-selfhelp-model/route.ts":"a1d78e2db36138c5f626d70aee2e77a72c1628ea9c932b2dfd0316d4a66ca7b7"},"boundary":"Historical endpoint-utility bridge; three whole worlds preserved. 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QALY-based health gains and income-welfare equivalents retain their original assumptions; they are not measured clinical DALYs."}}