{"version":"sf-jcyc-myeep-cea-v1","reviewedAt":"2026-09-07","organization":"JCYC","program":"MYEEP summer paid-work placements","confidence":"very-low","denominator":"10 incremental quality-adjusted life years","amountSemantics":"modeled marginal donor expenditure, not a verified funding offer","formula":"10 * costPerSlot / (mortalityReduction * transferRetention * additionality * qalysPerDeath)","scope":"One additional summer placement; not school-year MYEEP or all JCYC programs","anchors":{"designEmploymentHours":140,"designTrainingHours":10,"currentPostedHourlyWage":19.61,"mortalityReduction":0.00073,"mortalityStandardError":0.00031,"mortalityWindow":"Cumulative through October 2014 for NYC 2005–08 cohorts; not annual","effectType":"2SLS participation effect; do not divide again by lottery take-up"},"scenarios":[{"name":"Optimistic positive","costPerSlot":4000,"mortalityReduction":0.00073,"transferRetention":0.75,"additionality":1,"qalysPerDeath":25},{"name":"Central analyst estimate","costPerSlot":5100,"mortalityReduction":0.00073,"transferRetention":0.25,"additionality":0.75,"qalysPerDeath":15},{"name":"Pessimistic positive","costPerSlot":7000,"mortalityReduction":0.00073,"transferRetention":0.05,"additionality":0.25,"qalysPerDeath":8}],"judgments":[{"key":"costPerSlot","label":"Donor cost per additional summer slot","basis":"150 hours * $19.61 * 1.12 + $1,800 = $5,094.48, rounded to $5,100. Design hours and current posted wage are anchors; paying all training hours, 12% loading, $1,800 delivery allowance and transfer to a future summer cohort are assumptions, not a JCYC quote."},{"key":"transferRetention","label":"Share of external mortality effect retained","basis":"25% is a subjective allowance for different baseline risks, program design, geography, vintage and uncertain marginal participant mix. It is not an estimated SF effect."},{"key":"additionality","label":"Share of a funded slot that is additional","basis":"75% allows replacement of existing funding or another placement. No current unfunded cohort or private-gift allocation has been verified."},{"key":"qalysPerDeath","label":"Discounted QALYs per death prevented","basis":"15 is a rounded judgment, not measured youth life expectancy. An illustrative 40-year horizon with utility 0.85, annual hazard 0.01, 3% discount and five-year delay gives about 14.7 QALYs. Mortality timing and long-run persistence remain unverified."}],"nullBoundary":"No additional slots, no transferred mortality effect, or no lasting survival gain means zero additional QALYs and no finite price. Positive scenarios are not confidence intervals; adverse effects are not ruled out.","fundingRoom":{"verifiedUsd":null,"status":"unverified","nextEvidence":"Summer-only incremental wage and delivery budget, unmet eligible demand, counterfactual placements and current private-gift capacity; no contact has been made."},"excluded":["Current earnings and household consumption gains","Incarceration and nonfatal injury benefits","Education and longer-run earnings gains, which are not established by the selected experiment","Public-payer savings and broader societal value"],"sources":[{"publisher":"JCYC Workhub","title":"MYEEP program and posted wage","url":"https://www.jcycworkhub.org/programs/myeep","published":"Undated, current page includes school-year content","retrieved":"2026-09-07","sourceType":"Program identity and wage; not a current summer funding offer"},{"publisher":"San Francisco DCYF","title":"Board of Supervisors presentation, page 3","url":"https://sfgov.legistar.com/View.ashx?GUID=AF1D2E06-37B6-4D5F-904B-3CF8AD5C5A41&ID=13040351&M=F","published":"2024-06-20","retrieved":"2026-09-07","sourceType":"Summer design dosage and annual allocation, not completed hours or summer-only spending"},{"publisher":"Gelber, Isen and Kessler, Quarterly Journal of Economics","title":"The Effects of Youth Employment: Evidence from New York City Lotteries","url":"https://users.nber.org/~kesslerj/papers/GelberIsenKessler_2016.pdf","published":"2016; advance publication 2015","retrieved":"2026-09-07","sourceType":"Randomized lottery instrumental-variable evaluation; Table VII cumulative mortality"}],"evaluatedScenarios":[{"name":"Optimistic positive","costPerSlot":4000,"mortalityReduction":0.00073,"transferRetention":0.75,"additionality":1,"qalysPerDeath":25,"deathsPreventedPerSlot":0.0005475,"qalysPerSlot":0.0136875,"fundedSlots":25,"additionalQalys":0.3421875,"costPerTenQalys":2922374.429223744},{"name":"Central analyst estimate","costPerSlot":5100,"mortalityReduction":0.00073,"transferRetention":0.25,"additionality":0.75,"qalysPerDeath":15,"deathsPreventedPerSlot":0.000136875,"qalysPerSlot":0.0020531250000000003,"fundedSlots":19.607843137254903,"additionalQalys":0.04025735294117648,"costPerTenQalys":24840182.648401823},{"name":"Pessimistic positive","costPerSlot":7000,"mortalityReduction":0.00073,"transferRetention":0.05,"additionality":0.25,"qalysPerDeath":8,"deathsPreventedPerSlot":0.000009125,"qalysPerSlot":0.000073,"fundedSlots":14.285714285714286,"additionalQalys":0.001042857142857143,"costPerTenQalys":958904109.5890411}]}