{"path":"docs/open-botec/estimates/us-il-chicago/unassigned-tai-chi.json","schemaVersion":"open-botec/0.1","id":"slug:unassigned-chicago-tjqmbb/tjqmbb-course/tai-chi-fall-prevention/us-il-chicago/2026/v1","key":{"org":{"name":"Unassigned Chicago TJQMBB provider","orgId":"slug:unassigned-chicago-tjqmbb","ein":null},"program":{"slug":"tjqmbb-course","name":"Hypothetical 24-week TJQMBB course"},"geography":{"geoId":"us-il-chicago","name":"Chicago, Illinois","beneficiaryBasis":"service-location"},"year":2026,"modelVersion":"v1","archetypeId":"tai-chi-fall-prevention"},"status":{"tier":"draft","since":"2026-10-18","confidence":"very-low"},"template":{"archetypeId":"tai-chi-fall-prevention","templateVersion":"v1","parameterSets":["parameters/us-il-chicago/tai-chi-fall-prevention.json"],"overrides":[]},"scope":{"counterfactual":"No identified Chicago TJQMBB course; general senior exercise continues.","templateFitNote":"Geography-level price for the archetype. No organization was found, so this is not a giving recommendation."},"inputs":{"classesPerCourse":{"label":"Classes per course","value":{"p10":48,"p50":48,"p90":48,"shape":"fixed","basis":"convention"},"scope":"universal","basis":"transferred","rationale":"24 weeks x 2 classes, per the trial protocol.","sources":[{"publisher":"Li et al.","title":"Therapeutic tai ji quan randomized trial","url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30208396/","published":"2018","retrieved":"2026-09-07"}],"from":"templates/tai-chi-fall-prevention.v1.json"},"paidHoursPerClass":{"label":"Paid instructor preparation and delivery hours per class","value":{"p10":2,"p50":2,"p90":2,"shape":"fixed","basis":"convention"},"scope":"universal","basis":"judgment","rationale":"SF planning assumption: one hour delivery plus one hour preparation/travel.","from":"templates/tai-chi-fall-prevention.v1.json"},"hypothesizedEndpointUtility":{"label":"Hypothesized endpoint utility gain versus stretching","value":{"p10":0.01,"p50":0.04,"p90":0.06,"shape":"two-piece-lognormal","basis":"analyst-scenarios"},"scope":"universal","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Independent calibration of .04. The source table labels .04 as incremental QALYs while its prose describes a utility difference; reading it as integrated QALYs would lower the price 4x. Unit ambiguity is unresolved.","sources":[{"publisher":"Li and Harmer et al.","title":"Trial economic evaluation","url":"https://academic.oup.com/biomedgerontology/article/74/9/1504/5284888","published":"2019-01-10","retrieved":"2026-09-07"}],"from":"templates/tai-chi-fall-prevention.v1.json"},"horizonYears":{"label":"Modeled follow-up horizon","value":{"p10":0.5,"p50":0.5,"p90":0.5,"shape":"fixed","basis":"convention"},"scope":"universal","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Rounded six-month horizon; no persistence beyond follow-up.","from":"templates/tai-chi-fall-prevention.v1.json"},"onsetFraction":{"label":"Average fraction of endpoint benefit realized over follow-up","value":{"p10":0.25,"p50":0.5,"p90":0.5,"shape":"two-piece-logit","basis":"analyst-scenarios"},"scope":"universal","basis":"judgment","rationale":"0.5 assumes linear growth from zero to endpoint.","from":"templates/tai-chi-fall-prevention.v1.json"},"instructorHourlyCost":{"label":"Loaded instructor cost per paid hour","value":{"p10":28,"p50":40,"p90":70,"shape":"two-piece-lognormal","basis":"analyst-scenarios"},"scope":"local","basis":"derived","rationale":"BLS OEWS May 2022 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin mean wage for fitness trainers and instructors $26.05/hour x about 1.3 benefits/overhead x about 1.15 wage growth to 2026 = about $39, rounded to $40. Upper bound allows a certified-instructor premium. SF's $60 was an assumption, not OEWS, so the SF-to-Chicago gap mixes method and place.","sources":[{"publisher":"US Bureau of Labor Statistics","title":"OEWS May 2022: 39-9031 Fitness Trainers and Aerobics Instructors","url":"https://www.bls.gov/oes/2022/may/oes399031.htm","published":"2023","retrieved":"2026-10-18","locator":"Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI mean hourly $26.05"}],"from":"parameters/us-il-chicago/tai-chi-fall-prevention.json"},"supportCostPerParticipant":{"label":"Licensing, room, outreach and screening cost per participant","value":{"p10":100,"p50":200,"p90":400,"shape":"two-piece-lognormal","basis":"analyst-scenarios"},"scope":"local","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Transferred unchanged from SF; no Chicago room/licensing lookup.","from":"parameters/us-il-chicago/tai-chi-fall-prevention.json"},"localTransfer":{"label":"Local fidelity and population retention of the trial effect","value":{"p10":0.25,"p50":0.5,"p90":0.75,"shape":"two-piece-logit","basis":"analyst-scenarios"},"scope":"local","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Transferred unchanged from SF.","from":"parameters/us-il-chicago/tai-chi-fall-prevention.json"},"additionality":{"label":"Share of funded places that are net-new capacity","value":{"p10":0.25,"p50":0.5,"p90":0.75,"shape":"two-piece-logit","basis":"analyst-scenarios"},"scope":"local","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Transferred unchanged from SF; Title III-D funding through the Chicago Area Agency on Aging not looked up.","from":"parameters/us-il-chicago/tai-chi-fall-prevention.json"},"participantsPerCourse":{"label":"Enrolled participants per course","value":{"p10":15,"p50":15,"p90":15,"shape":"fixed","basis":"convention"},"scope":"org","basis":"judgment","rationale":"No provider found; SF occupancy assumed.","from":"estimates/us-il-chicago/unassigned-tai-chi.recipe.json"}},"nativeOutcome":{"unit":"additional fidelity-equivalent high-risk participants completing a 24-week course","perUnitCost":"additional funded course place","outcomesPer10kUsd":{"p10":1.651,"p50":4.524,"p90":9.891,"unit":"additional fidelity-equivalent high-risk participants completing a 24-week course per $10,000","shape":"empirical","basis":"simulated"},"costPerOutcome":{"p10":1011,"p50":2211,"p90":6057,"unit":"USD per additional fidelity-equivalent high-risk participants completing a 24-week course","shape":"empirical","basis":"simulated"},"centralPoint":1824,"formula":"additionality * localTransfer"},"cost":{"currency":"USD","priceYear":2026,"boundary":"unit-cost-judgment"},"qalyLayer":{"bridgeId":"tjqmbb-course-to-qaly","bridgeVersion":"v1","qalysPerNativeOutcome":{"p10":0.001878,"p50":0.007225,"p90":0.01373,"unit":"QALYs per additional fidelity-equivalent high-risk participants completing a 24-week course","shape":"empirical","basis":"simulated"},"pricePer10Qalys":{"p10":1100000,"p50":3531000,"p90":16900000,"unit":"USD per 10 QALYs","shape":"empirical","basis":"simulated"},"centralPointPricePer10Qalys":1824000,"probabilityNonPositive":0,"auditStatus":"unaudited","notes":"probabilityNonPositive is 0 by construction: v1 input distributions are strictly positive, so the null case lives only in nullBoundary."},"simulation":{"method":"monte-carlo-independent","samples":20000,"seed":20261018,"tool":"docs/open-botec/tools/evaluate.mjs","notes":"Inputs drawn independently. Legacy SF scenarios were joint corners; independent draws give a narrower price spread than those corners."},"margin":{"basis":"marginal","adjustments":["additionality"]},"fundingRoom":{"status":"none","nextEvidence":"Find a Chicago provider (Chicago DFSS senior centers, AgeOptions for suburban Cook)."},"nullBoundary":"Null or harm remains possible. Zero additionality or a non-fidelity course gives no finite price.","provenance":{"sessions":[{"sessionId":"open-botec-localization-20261018","workerId":"claude-opus-open-botec-design","role":"localization","startedAt":"2026-10-18T18:37:21Z","endedAt":"2026-10-18T18:38:10Z","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5-5","name":"Claude Opus 5.5","evidence":"Runtime system prompt of the open-botec design session"},"evidence":"docs/open-botec/localization-test.md"}],"audits":[]},"conflictOfInterest":{"declared":false,"authorRelationship":"none","selfSubmitted":false}}