{"model":{"schemaVersion":"1.0.0","modelId":"newdoor-unrestricted-portfolio-v1","reviewDate":"2026-09-08","status":"Independently accepted conditional whole-organization partial-health estimate","organization":"New Door Ventures","giftUsd":100000,"scope":"One marginal unrestricted gift across employment, education, career support and strategy/reserve; whole gift costed, only employment health quantified. Existing organization revision, no new count.","financialContext":{"period":"Calendar 2025","totalExpenses":6505120,"programExpenses":5078730,"employmentSf":1843419,"employmentOakland":1784535,"employmentSanJose":427257,"education":572181,"transitionServices":451338,"fundraising":1038613,"generalAdministration":387777,"governmentGrants":1438580,"operatingNetAssetChange":-2005878,"totalNetAssetChange":-1804022,"source":"audit","meaning":"Historical functional expenditures and existing finance, not prospective allocation or marginal price. Never divide CY2025 costs by FY2024–25 DCYF participants."},"allocationBasis":"Central 70% integrated employment,15% education,10% additional career,5% strategy/reserve is judgment. Combined employment is about79.85% of historical program expenditure; current integrated strategy and separate streams justify a broad range, not a measured next-gift forecast. Overhead embedded in course allowances and other allocations once.","unit":"An offered six-month employment place, including wages, weekly support, training, supervision, transport and allocated shared overhead. Any education/career input required for this modeled core is inside its cost; separate buckets represent other provision only.","healthBasis":"Retains existing subjective .005/.02/.001 utility, effective years .5/.75/.25 and funding .5/.75/.25; not direct imported youth trial effects. Offered-place average already includes noncompletion. No second engagement multiplier.","duration":"All health within one year of offer. Effective years integrate onset, decay and any within-year discount; .75 favorable is not .75 years added after the year. No lifelong employment, mortality or credential health gain.","geography":"All modeled benefits assumed among Bay residents; SF share .45/.60/.25 is judgment loosely informed by SF employment accounting about45.46% of all employment costs, not measured residence. Remainder includes Oakland/San Jose/other Bay. Bay includes SF, same gift.","additionality":"Access preserved or expanded because of gift versus already funded services, alternative providers and replacement of public/private commitments. Not completion or employment placement.","costPerspective":"Entire $100K gift paid in every case, including unquantified/reserve shares. Cost allowances include shared operations once. Extra-resource stress adds hypothetical $100K net resources, not a measured societal cost; especially not claimed induced under no additionality. Wages are donor costs but transfers in some resource perspectives; do not subtract their full amount without pricing participant labor/time and employer production.","overlap":"Single averaged health change for integrated employment/support cohort; no added QALYs from education certificates, career placements, wages, referrals or partner-clinic outcomes. Education/career spending outside core stays health-unquantified; no assumption all participants are distinct.","nullHarm":"Signed shared utility scales with additionality. Independent donor-specific harm remains outside it. Nonpositive QALYs have null ratios, not apparent bargains. Null/harm demonstrate boundaries, not observed event rates.","fundingRoom":{"verifiedUsd":null,"currentOffer":false,"missing":"Program mix, consistent dose, all-funder marginal ledger, resident mix, live capacity, and no-gift continuation/alternative service"},"formula":"Bay gross=(employment allocation / full offered-place cost)*utility*effective years*additionality. SF=Bay gross*SFshare−independent SF harm; restBay=Bay gross*(1−SFshare)−independent restBay harm; Bay=SF+restBay. USD/10=10*whole gift/netQ if positive.","scenarios":[{"id":"central","allocations":{"employment":70000,"education":15000,"careerAdditional":10000,"reserveStrategy":5000},"costPerOfferedPlace":20000,"utilityGain":0.005,"effectiveYears":0.5,"additionality":0.5,"sfResidentShare":0.45,"donorHarmSf":0,"donorHarmRestBay":0,"outputs":{"offeredPlaces":3.5,"healthUnquantifiedAllocationUsd":30000,"grossBayQaly":0.004375,"sfNetQaly":0.0019687500000000004,"restBayNetQaly":0.0024062500000000004,"bayIncludingSfNetQaly":0.004375,"sfUsdPer10Qaly":507936507.9365078,"bayUsdPer10Qaly":228571428.57142854,"sfExtraResourceStressUsdPer10Qaly":1015873015.8730156,"bayExtraResourceStressUsdPer10Qaly":457142857.1428571}},{"id":"favorable","allocations":{"employment":80000,"education":10000,"careerAdditional":5000,"reserveStrategy":5000},"costPerOfferedPlace":12000,"utilityGain":0.02,"effectiveYears":0.75,"additionality":0.75,"sfResidentShare":0.6,"donorHarmSf":0,"donorHarmRestBay":0,"outputs":{"offeredPlaces":6.666666666666667,"healthUnquantifiedAllocationUsd":20000,"grossBayQaly":0.07500000000000001,"sfNetQaly":0.045000000000000005,"restBayNetQaly":0.030000000000000006,"bayIncludingSfNetQaly":0.07500000000000001,"sfUsdPer10Qaly":22222222.22222222,"bayUsdPer10Qaly":13333333.333333332,"sfExtraResourceStressUsdPer10Qaly":44444444.44444444,"bayExtraResourceStressUsdPer10Qaly":26666666.666666664}},{"id":"pessimisticPositive","allocations":{"employment":50000,"education":20000,"careerAdditional":15000,"reserveStrategy":15000},"costPerOfferedPlace":30000,"utilityGain":0.001,"effectiveYears":0.25,"additionality":0.25,"sfResidentShare":0.25,"donorHarmSf":0,"donorHarmRestBay":0,"outputs":{"offeredPlaces":1.6666666666666667,"healthUnquantifiedAllocationUsd":50000,"grossBayQaly":0.00010416666666666667,"sfNetQaly":0.00002604166666666667,"restBayNetQaly":0.000078125,"bayIncludingSfNetQaly":0.00010416666666666667,"sfUsdPer10Qaly":38400000000,"bayUsdPer10Qaly":9600000000,"sfExtraResourceStressUsdPer10Qaly":76800000000,"bayExtraResourceStressUsdPer10Qaly":19200000000}},{"id":"nullAdditionality","allocations":{"employment":70000,"education":15000,"careerAdditional":10000,"reserveStrategy":5000},"costPerOfferedPlace":20000,"utilityGain":0.005,"effectiveYears":0.5,"additionality":0,"sfResidentShare":0.45,"donorHarmSf":0,"donorHarmRestBay":0,"outputs":{"offeredPlaces":3.5,"healthUnquantifiedAllocationUsd":30000,"grossBayQaly":0,"sfNetQaly":0,"restBayNetQaly":0,"bayIncludingSfNetQaly":0,"sfUsdPer10Qaly":null,"bayUsdPer10Qaly":null,"sfExtraResourceStressUsdPer10Qaly":null,"bayExtraResourceStressUsdPer10Qaly":null}},{"id":"nullHealthEffect","allocations":{"employment":70000,"education":15000,"careerAdditional":10000,"reserveStrategy":5000},"costPerOfferedPlace":20000,"utilityGain":0,"effectiveYears":0.5,"additionality":0.5,"sfResidentShare":0.45,"donorHarmSf":0,"donorHarmRestBay":0,"outputs":{"offeredPlaces":3.5,"healthUnquantifiedAllocationUsd":30000,"grossBayQaly":0,"sfNetQaly":0,"restBayNetQaly":0,"bayIncludingSfNetQaly":0,"sfUsdPer10Qaly":null,"bayUsdPer10Qaly":null,"sfExtraResourceStressUsdPer10Qaly":null,"bayExtraResourceStressUsdPer10Qaly":null}},{"id":"sharedHealthHarm","allocations":{"employment":70000,"education":15000,"careerAdditional":10000,"reserveStrategy":5000},"costPerOfferedPlace":20000,"utilityGain":-0.005,"effectiveYears":0.5,"additionality":0.5,"sfResidentShare":0.45,"donorHarmSf":0,"donorHarmRestBay":0,"outputs":{"offeredPlaces":3.5,"healthUnquantifiedAllocationUsd":30000,"grossBayQaly":-0.004375,"sfNetQaly":-0.0019687500000000004,"restBayNetQaly":-0.0024062500000000004,"bayIncludingSfNetQaly":-0.004375,"sfUsdPer10Qaly":null,"bayUsdPer10Qaly":null,"sfExtraResourceStressUsdPer10Qaly":null,"bayExtraResourceStressUsdPer10Qaly":null}},{"id":"nullAdditionalityDonorHarm","allocations":{"employment":70000,"education":15000,"careerAdditional":10000,"reserveStrategy":5000},"costPerOfferedPlace":20000,"utilityGain":0.005,"effectiveYears":0.5,"additionality":0,"sfResidentShare":0.45,"donorHarmSf":0.001,"donorHarmRestBay":0.001,"outputs":{"offeredPlaces":3.5,"healthUnquantifiedAllocationUsd":30000,"grossBayQaly":0,"sfNetQaly":-0.001,"restBayNetQaly":-0.001,"bayIncludingSfNetQaly":-0.002,"sfUsdPer10Qaly":null,"bayUsdPer10Qaly":null,"sfExtraResourceStressUsdPer10Qaly":null,"bayExtraResourceStressUsdPer10Qaly":null}},{"id":"allEmploymentAllocationStress","allocations":{"employment":100000,"education":0,"careerAdditional":0,"reserveStrategy":0},"costPerOfferedPlace":20000,"utilityGain":0.005,"effectiveYears":0.5,"additionality":0.5,"sfResidentShare":0.45,"donorHarmSf":0,"donorHarmRestBay":0,"outputs":{"offeredPlaces":5,"healthUnquantifiedAllocationUsd":0,"grossBayQaly":0.00625,"sfNetQaly":0.0028125000000000003,"restBayNetQaly":0.0034375000000000005,"bayIncludingSfNetQaly":0.00625,"sfUsdPer10Qaly":355555555.5555555,"bayUsdPer10Qaly":160000000,"sfExtraResourceStressUsdPer10Qaly":711111111.111111,"bayExtraResourceStressUsdPer10Qaly":320000000}}],"sources":[{"id":"audit","publisher":"New Door Ventures / SD Mayer & Associates","title":"2025 audited financial statements","url":"https://www.newdoor.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/NDV-2025-Audit-Report.pdf","date":"Year ended December 31, 2025; signed June 12, 2026","scope":"Full PDF text downloaded directly into memory and extracted; printed pages 4–5 financials, 7–8 strategy, 10 noncash, 13 liquidity. No marginal price.","accessed":"September 8, 2026"},{"id":"programs","publisher":"New Door Ventures","title":"What We Do","url":"https://www.newdoor.org/what-we-do/","date":"Undated current page","scope":"Current program identity; no health effect inferred from promotional outcomes.","accessed":"September 8, 2026"},{"id":"employment","publisher":"New Door Ventures","title":"Employment Program","url":"https://www.newdoor.org/what-we-do/employment-program/","date":"Undated current page","scope":"Six-month headline versus three-month-plus FAQ; paid hours and weekly support, not confirmed marginal capacity.","accessed":"September 8, 2026"},{"id":"education","publisher":"New Door Ventures","title":"Education Program","url":"https://www.newdoor.org/what-we-do/education/","date":"Undated current page","scope":"High-school-equivalency instruction, stipends, transport and fees; not QALYs.","accessed":"September 8, 2026"},{"id":"career","publisher":"New Door Ventures","title":"Career Services","url":"https://www.newdoor.org/career-services/","date":"Undated current page","scope":"Open to graduates and others; not automatically same cohort.","accessed":"September 8, 2026"},{"id":"strategy","publisher":"New Door Ventures","title":"Program Director, SF Employment Program","url":"https://www.newdoor.org/get-involved/join-our-team/programs-director-san-francisco-employment-program/","date":"Undated current posting","scope":"Vision 2030 strengthened SF pathway; future implementation, not achieved outcomes.","accessed":"September 8, 2026"},{"id":"ips","publisher":"UK Department for Work and Pensions","title":"Estimates of IPS impact over 12 months","url":"https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/health-led-trials-impact-evaluation-reports/estimates-of-the-impact-of-ips-over-12-months-health-led-employment-trial-evaluation","date":"July 2023; updated April 8, 2024","scope":"External adult health-selected trial, small endpoint utility, not youth causal coefficient or accumulated QALYs.","accessed":"September 8, 2026"},{"id":"jobs","publisher":"UK Department for Work and Pensions","title":"Group Work/JOBS II cost-benefit technical report","url":"https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/an-evaluation-of-the-group-work-jobs-ii-trial/cost-benefit-analysis-technical-report","date":"2021; updated May 17, 2022","scope":"Null mean EQ5D counterweight; not proof every youth program is ineffective.","accessed":"September 8, 2026"},{"id":"giving","publisher":"New Door Ventures","title":"Financial disclosures and official donation route","url":"https://www.newdoor.org/who-we-are/financials/","date":"Undated current page","scope":"General giving option, not restricted marginal program offer.","accessed":"September 8, 2026"}]},"evaluated":[{"id":"central","offeredPlaces":3.5,"healthUnquantifiedAllocationUsd":30000,"grossBayQaly":0.004375,"sfNetQaly":0.0019687500000000004,"restBayNetQaly":0.0024062500000000004,"bayIncludingSfNetQaly":0.004375,"sfUsdPer10Qaly":507936507.9365078,"bayUsdPer10Qaly":228571428.57142854,"sfExtraResourceStressUsdPer10Qaly":1015873015.8730156,"bayExtraResourceStressUsdPer10Qaly":457142857.1428571},{"id":"favorable","offeredPlaces":6.666666666666667,"healthUnquantifiedAllocationUsd":20000,"grossBayQaly":0.075,"sfNetQaly":0.045,"restBayNetQaly":0.03,"bayIncludingSfNetQaly":0.075,"sfUsdPer10Qaly":22222222.222222224,"bayUsdPer10Qaly":13333333.333333334,"sfExtraResourceStressUsdPer10Qaly":44444444.44444445,"bayExtraResourceStressUsdPer10Qaly":26666666.666666668},{"id":"pessimisticPositive","offeredPlaces":1.6666666666666667,"healthUnquantifiedAllocationUsd":50000,"grossBayQaly":0.00010416666666666667,"sfNetQaly":0.00002604166666666667,"restBayNetQaly":0.000078125,"bayIncludingSfNetQaly":0.00010416666666666667,"sfUsdPer10Qaly":38400000000,"bayUsdPer10Qaly":9600000000,"sfExtraResourceStressUsdPer10Qaly":76800000000,"bayExtraResourceStressUsdPer10Qaly":19200000000},{"id":"nullAdditionality","offeredPlaces":3.5,"healthUnquantifiedAllocationUsd":30000,"grossBayQaly":0,"sfNetQaly":0,"restBayNetQaly":0,"bayIncludingSfNetQaly":0,"sfUsdPer10Qaly":null,"bayUsdPer10Qaly":null,"sfExtraResourceStressUsdPer10Qaly":null,"bayExtraResourceStressUsdPer10Qaly":null},{"id":"nullHealthEffect","offeredPlaces":3.5,"healthUnquantifiedAllocationUsd":30000,"grossBayQaly":0,"sfNetQaly":0,"restBayNetQaly":0,"bayIncludingSfNetQaly":0,"sfUsdPer10Qaly":null,"bayUsdPer10Qaly":null,"sfExtraResourceStressUsdPer10Qaly":null,"bayExtraResourceStressUsdPer10Qaly":null},{"id":"sharedHealthHarm","offeredPlaces":3.5,"healthUnquantifiedAllocationUsd":30000,"grossBayQaly":-0.004375,"sfNetQaly":-0.0019687500000000004,"restBayNetQaly":-0.0024062500000000004,"bayIncludingSfNetQaly":-0.004375,"sfUsdPer10Qaly":null,"bayUsdPer10Qaly":null,"sfExtraResourceStressUsdPer10Qaly":null,"bayExtraResourceStressUsdPer10Qaly":null},{"id":"nullAdditionalityDonorHarm","offeredPlaces":3.5,"healthUnquantifiedAllocationUsd":30000,"grossBayQaly":0,"sfNetQaly":-0.001,"restBayNetQaly":-0.001,"bayIncludingSfNetQaly":-0.002,"sfUsdPer10Qaly":null,"bayUsdPer10Qaly":null,"sfExtraResourceStressUsdPer10Qaly":null,"bayExtraResourceStressUsdPer10Qaly":null},{"id":"allEmploymentAllocationStress","offeredPlaces":5,"healthUnquantifiedAllocationUsd":0,"grossBayQaly":0.00625,"sfNetQaly":0.0028125000000000003,"restBayNetQaly":0.0034375000000000005,"bayIncludingSfNetQaly":0.00625,"sfUsdPer10Qaly":355555555.5555555,"bayUsdPer10Qaly":160000000,"sfExtraResourceStressUsdPer10Qaly":711111111.111111,"bayExtraResourceStressUsdPer10Qaly":320000000}]}