{"modelVersion":"hac-whole-c3-portfolio-v2-v1","inputs":{"lockedAtUtc":"2026-09-11 16:44:13 UTC","timingNote":"Clock observed immediately after writing coefficients and before first executable output. Focused wall-clock timing, not instrumented activity.","version":"hac-whole-c3-portfolio-v2-v1","referenceGift":100000,"allocation":{"technicalAssistance":0.3,"implementationEducation":0.5,"generalEducationAndInfrastructure":0.2},"basis":"All parameters are analyst judgments except the SF Controller net-home scale anchor 8041/13615. Policy attribution is conditional on the allocated $50000, bundles funding response, c3-eligible delivery, other actors and own past/future funded cohorts. Do not apply allocation again. Policy residual is the share of source-scale housing still alterable beyond adopted law/public baseline, not a second probability of the same action.","central":{"id":"central","advisoryCost":15000,"projectHomes":20,"completionDifference":0.1,"advisoryFunding":0.5,"advisoryBayShare":0.75,"advisorySfShareOfBay":0.25,"advisoryNonOverlap":0.8,"policyScaleHomes":8041,"policyResidual":0.02,"policyGiftContribution":0.02,"affectedPeoplePerHome":0.1,"directUtility":0.02,"spilloverPeoplePerHome":0.5,"spilloverUtility":0.001,"advisoryStart":3,"advisoryDuration":6,"policyStart":10,"policyDuration":5,"discountRate":0.03,"donorHarmBay":0,"donorHarmSfShare":0.5},"favorable":{"id":"favorable","advisoryCost":7500,"projectHomes":100,"completionDifference":0.25,"advisoryFunding":0.75,"advisoryBayShare":0.9,"advisorySfShareOfBay":0.25,"advisoryNonOverlap":0.8,"policyScaleHomes":13615,"policyResidual":0.1,"policyGiftContribution":0.05,"affectedPeoplePerHome":0.5,"directUtility":0.02,"spilloverPeoplePerHome":1,"spilloverUtility":0.005,"advisoryStart":3,"advisoryDuration":6,"policyStart":5,"policyDuration":10,"discountRate":0.03,"donorHarmBay":0,"donorHarmSfShare":0.5},"pessimistic":{"id":"pessimistic","advisoryCost":30000,"projectHomes":5,"completionDifference":0.02,"advisoryFunding":0.1,"advisoryBayShare":0.5,"advisorySfShareOfBay":0.25,"advisoryNonOverlap":0.5,"policyScaleHomes":8041,"policyResidual":0.005,"policyGiftContribution":0.002,"affectedPeoplePerHome":0.1,"directUtility":0.01,"spilloverPeoplePerHome":0.5,"spilloverUtility":0,"advisoryStart":5,"advisoryDuration":2,"policyStart":15,"policyDuration":2,"discountRate":0.03,"donorHarmBay":0,"donorHarmSfShare":0.5},"interpretation":"Central and joint stress scenarios, not a probability distribution. No tuning to a favorable ranking. DPP favorable 100 homes remains unverified; source-scale is not an estimate of HAC-produced housing. General 20% allocation fully costed with no separate quantified benefit."},"evaluated":{"version":"hac-whole-c3-portfolio-v2-v1","scope":"Whole ordinary c3 gift; partial quantified health; annual expense descriptive","weightedExpectation":null,"weightExplanation":"No calibrated scenario probabilities; central and joint stresses are not a distribution.","results":[{"id":"central","donorCost":100000,"additionalResources":0,"cost":100000,"advisoryPlaces":2,"advisoryYears":5.031493691598312,"policyYears":3.4585964162080347,"advisoryBayHomes":1.2000000000000002,"policyBayHomes":3.2164,"directAnnualPerHome":0.002,"spilloverAnnualPerHome":0.0005,"advisoryDirectQ":0.012075584859835951,"advisorySpilloverQ":0.0030188962149589878,"policyDirectQ":0.022248459026183047,"policySpilloverQ":0.005562114756545762,"advisoryBayQ":0.01509448107479494,"policyBayQ":0.02781057378272881,"bayQ":0.04290505485752375,"sfQ":0.031584194051427546,"restBayQ":0.011320860806096206,"bayCostPer10":23307277.040449742,"sfCostPer10":31661406.283526868,"status":"positive"},{"id":"favorable","donorCost":100000,"additionalResources":0,"cost":100000,"advisoryPlaces":4,"advisoryYears":5.031493691598312,"policyYears":7.468057574984902,"advisoryBayHomes":54,"policyBayHomes":68.075,"directAnnualPerHome":0.01,"spilloverAnnualPerHome":0.005,"advisoryDirectQ":2.7170065934630885,"advisorySpilloverQ":1.3585032967315442,"policyDirectQ":5.083880194170972,"policySpilloverQ":2.541940097085486,"advisoryBayQ":4.075509890194633,"policyBayQ":7.625820291256458,"bayQ":11.701330181451091,"sfQ":8.644697763805116,"restBayQ":3.056632417645975,"bayCostPer10":85460.36941895688,"sfCostPer10":115677.84407535288,"status":"positive"},{"id":"pessimistic","donorCost":100000,"additionalResources":0,"cost":100000,"advisoryPlaces":1,"advisoryYears":1.6752124337167675,"policyYears":1.24651537808798,"advisoryBayHomes":0.0025000000000000005,"policyBayHomes":0.08041,"directAnnualPerHome":0.001,"spilloverAnnualPerHome":0,"advisoryDirectQ":0.00000418803108429192,"advisorySpilloverQ":0,"policyDirectQ":0.00010023230155205447,"policySpilloverQ":0,"advisoryBayQ":0.00000418803108429192,"policyBayQ":0.00010023230155205447,"bayQ":0.00010442033263634638,"sfQ":0.00010127930932312745,"restBayQ":0.000003141023313218939,"bayCostPer10":9576678935.53446,"sfCostPer10":9873685026.914444,"status":"positive"},{"id":"null_implementation","donorCost":100000,"additionalResources":0,"cost":100000,"advisoryPlaces":2,"advisoryYears":5.031493691598312,"policyYears":3.4585964162080347,"advisoryBayHomes":0,"policyBayHomes":0,"directAnnualPerHome":0.002,"spilloverAnnualPerHome":0.0005,"advisoryDirectQ":0,"advisorySpilloverQ":0,"policyDirectQ":0,"policySpilloverQ":0,"advisoryBayQ":0,"policyBayQ":0,"bayQ":0,"sfQ":0,"restBayQ":0,"bayCostPer10":null,"sfCostPer10":null,"status":"null"},{"id":"null_health","donorCost":100000,"additionalResources":0,"cost":100000,"advisoryPlaces":2,"advisoryYears":5.031493691598312,"policyYears":3.4585964162080347,"advisoryBayHomes":1.2000000000000002,"policyBayHomes":3.2164,"directAnnualPerHome":0,"spilloverAnnualPerHome":0,"advisoryDirectQ":0,"advisorySpilloverQ":0,"policyDirectQ":0,"policySpilloverQ":0,"advisoryBayQ":0,"policyBayQ":0,"bayQ":0,"sfQ":0,"restBayQ":0,"bayCostPer10":null,"sfCostPer10":null,"status":"null"},{"id":"signed_shared_harm","donorCost":100000,"additionalResources":0,"cost":100000,"advisoryPlaces":2,"advisoryYears":5.031493691598312,"policyYears":3.4585964162080347,"advisoryBayHomes":1.2000000000000002,"policyBayHomes":3.2164,"directAnnualPerHome":-0.0004,"spilloverAnnualPerHome":0,"advisoryDirectQ":-0.0024151169719671905,"advisorySpilloverQ":0,"policyDirectQ":-0.00444969180523661,"policySpilloverQ":0,"advisoryBayQ":-0.0024151169719671905,"policyBayQ":-0.00444969180523661,"bayQ":-0.0068648087772038,"sfQ":-0.005053471048228407,"restBayQ":-0.0018113377289753927,"bayCostPer10":null,"sfCostPer10":null,"status":"harm"},{"id":"donor_harm","donorCost":100000,"additionalResources":0,"cost":100000,"advisoryPlaces":2,"advisoryYears":5.031493691598312,"policyYears":3.4585964162080347,"advisoryBayHomes":1.2000000000000002,"policyBayHomes":3.2164,"directAnnualPerHome":0.002,"spilloverAnnualPerHome":0.0005,"advisoryDirectQ":0.012075584859835951,"advisorySpilloverQ":0.0030188962149589878,"policyDirectQ":0.022248459026183047,"policySpilloverQ":0.005562114756545762,"advisoryBayQ":0.01509448107479494,"policyBayQ":0.02781057378272881,"bayQ":-0.057094945142476254,"sfQ":-0.018415805948572457,"restBayQ":-0.0386791391939038,"bayCostPer10":null,"sfCostPer10":null,"status":"harm"},{"id":"null_with_donor_harm","donorCost":100000,"additionalResources":0,"cost":100000,"advisoryPlaces":2,"advisoryYears":5.031493691598312,"policyYears":3.4585964162080347,"advisoryBayHomes":0,"policyBayHomes":0,"directAnnualPerHome":0.002,"spilloverAnnualPerHome":0.0005,"advisoryDirectQ":0,"advisorySpilloverQ":0,"policyDirectQ":0,"policySpilloverQ":0,"advisoryBayQ":0,"policyBayQ":0,"bayQ":-0.1,"sfQ":-0.05,"restBayQ":-0.05,"bayCostPer10":null,"sfCostPer10":null,"status":"harm"},{"id":"no_spillover","donorCost":100000,"additionalResources":0,"cost":100000,"advisoryPlaces":2,"advisoryYears":5.031493691598312,"policyYears":3.4585964162080347,"advisoryBayHomes":1.2000000000000002,"policyBayHomes":3.2164,"directAnnualPerHome":0.002,"spilloverAnnualPerHome":0,"advisoryDirectQ":0.012075584859835951,"advisorySpilloverQ":0,"policyDirectQ":0.022248459026183047,"policySpilloverQ":0,"advisoryBayQ":0.012075584859835951,"policyBayQ":0.022248459026183047,"bayQ":0.034324043886019,"sfQ":0.025267355241142035,"restBayQ":0.009056688644876965,"bayCostPer10":29134096.300562177,"sfCostPer10":39576757.854408585,"status":"positive"},{"id":"no_policy_credit","donorCost":100000,"additionalResources":0,"cost":100000,"advisoryPlaces":2,"advisoryYears":5.031493691598312,"policyYears":3.4585964162080347,"advisoryBayHomes":1.2000000000000002,"policyBayHomes":0,"directAnnualPerHome":0.002,"spilloverAnnualPerHome":0.0005,"advisoryDirectQ":0.012075584859835951,"advisorySpilloverQ":0.0030188962149589878,"policyDirectQ":0,"policySpilloverQ":0,"advisoryBayQ":0.01509448107479494,"policyBayQ":0,"bayQ":0.01509448107479494,"sfQ":0.003773620268698735,"restBayQ":0.011320860806096204,"bayCostPer10":66249379.16347583,"sfCostPer10":264997516.6539033,"status":"positive"},{"id":"no_advisory_credit","donorCost":100000,"additionalResources":0,"cost":100000,"advisoryPlaces":2,"advisoryYears":5.031493691598312,"policyYears":3.4585964162080347,"advisoryBayHomes":0,"policyBayHomes":3.2164,"directAnnualPerHome":0.002,"spilloverAnnualPerHome":0.0005,"advisoryDirectQ":0,"advisorySpilloverQ":0,"policyDirectQ":0.022248459026183047,"policySpilloverQ":0.005562114756545762,"advisoryBayQ":0,"policyBayQ":0.02781057378272881,"bayQ":0.02781057378272881,"sfQ":0.02781057378272881,"restBayQ":0,"bayCostPer10":35957546.50056985,"sfCostPer10":35957546.50056985,"status":"positive"},{"id":"short_policy_exposure","donorCost":100000,"additionalResources":0,"cost":100000,"advisoryPlaces":2,"advisoryYears":5.031493691598312,"policyYears":1.24651537808798,"advisoryBayHomes":1.2000000000000002,"policyBayHomes":3.2164,"directAnnualPerHome":0.002,"spilloverAnnualPerHome":0.0005,"advisoryDirectQ":0.012075584859835951,"advisorySpilloverQ":0.0030188962149589878,"policyDirectQ":0.00801858412416436,"policySpilloverQ":0.00200464603104109,"advisoryBayQ":0.01509448107479494,"policyBayQ":0.01002323015520545,"bayQ":0.025117711230000388,"sfQ":0.013796850423904185,"restBayQ":0.011320860806096202,"bayCostPer10":39812544.65596405,"sfCostPer10":72480310.30817129,"status":"positive"}],"additionalResourceStress":{"id":"central","donorCost":100000,"additionalResources":1000000,"cost":1100000,"advisoryPlaces":2,"advisoryYears":5.031493691598312,"policyYears":3.4585964162080347,"advisoryBayHomes":1.2000000000000002,"policyBayHomes":3.2164,"directAnnualPerHome":0.002,"spilloverAnnualPerHome":0.0005,"advisoryDirectQ":0.012075584859835951,"advisorySpilloverQ":0.0030188962149589878,"policyDirectQ":0.022248459026183047,"policySpilloverQ":0.005562114756545762,"advisoryBayQ":0.01509448107479494,"policyBayQ":0.02781057378272881,"bayQ":0.04290505485752375,"sfQ":0.031584194051427546,"restBayQ":0.011320860806096206,"bayCostPer10":256380047.44494715,"sfCostPer10":348275469.1187955,"status":"positive"}},"sources":[{"id":"finance-index","publisher":"HAC","title":"Financial statements","url":"https://housingactioncoalition.org/financials","published":"Undated current page","retrieved":"September 11, 2026","sourceType":"Fresh primary-source inspection; limitations stated in report"},{"id":"990-2022","publisher":"San Francisco Housing Action Coalition","title":"Original 2022 Form 990","url":"https://housingactioncoalition.org/s/SFHAC-2022-990-2-1.pdf","published":"Calendar year 2022; upload date is not filing period","retrieved":"September 11, 2026","sourceType":"Original tax filing through official source; financial/program sections text-read; 2024 key tables also visually checked"},{"id":"990-2023","publisher":"San Francisco Housing Action Coalition","title":"Original 2023 Form 990","url":"https://housingactioncoalition.org/s/SFHAC-2023-990-5.pdf","published":"Calendar year 2023; upload date is not filing period","retrieved":"September 11, 2026","sourceType":"Original tax filing through official source; financial/program sections text-read; 2024 key tables also visually checked"},{"id":"990-2024","publisher":"San Francisco Housing Action Coalition","title":"Original 2024 Form 990","url":"https://housingactioncoalition.org/s/SFHAC-2024-990-2-1.pdf","published":"Calendar year 2024; upload date is not filing period","retrieved":"September 11, 2026","sourceType":"Original tax filing through official source; financial/program sections text-read; 2024 key tables also visually checked"},{"id":"c4","publisher":"Bay Area Housing Advocacy Coalition","title":"Original 2024 affiliate Form 990","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202512829349301646/IRS990","published":"Calendar year 2024; signature October 9, 2025","retrieved":"September 11, 2026","sourceType":"Original IRS filing reconstructed from e-file; relevant financial/mission text inspected via curl after browser failure"},{"id":"impact2025","publisher":"HAC","title":"2025 Impact Report","url":"https://housingactioncoalition.org/s/2025-HAC-Impact-Report-2.pdf","published":"2025 reporting year; exact publication date not stated","retrieved":"September 11, 2026","sourceType":"All 17 pages text-read; activity/revenue self-report, not independent causal evaluation"},{"id":"giving","publisher":"HAC","title":"Donation form and entity distinction","url":"https://secure.qgiv.com/for/fosfhac/","published":"Undated current form","retrieved":"September 11, 2026","sourceType":"Fresh primary-source inspection; limitations stated in report"},{"id":"work","publisher":"HAC","title":"Our work","url":"https://housingactioncoalition.org/our-work","published":"Undated current page","retrieved":"September 11, 2026","sourceType":"Fresh primary-source inspection; limitations stated in report"},{"id":"policy","publisher":"HAC","title":"Current policy portfolio","url":"https://housingactioncoalition.org/policy","published":"Undated current page; 2026 bill agenda","retrieved":"September 11, 2026","sourceType":"Fresh primary-source inspection; limitations stated in report"},{"id":"dpp","publisher":"HAC","title":"Developer Pathway Program","url":"https://housingactioncoalition.org/dpp","published":"Undated current program page","retrieved":"September 11, 2026","sourceType":"Fresh primary-source inspection; limitations stated in report"},{"id":"cohort","publisher":"HAC","title":"2026 Developer Pathway Program Collective","url":"https://housingactioncoalition.org/2026dppcollective","published":"2026 cohort","retrieved":"September 11, 2026","sourceType":"Fresh primary-source inspection; limitations stated in report"},{"id":"projects","publisher":"HAC","title":"Project support","url":"https://housingactioncoalition.org/project-support","published":"Undated current page","retrieved":"September 11, 2026","sourceType":"Fresh primary-source inspection; limitations stated in report"},{"id":"controller","publisher":"SF Controller, Office of Economic Analysis","title":"Family Zoning Plan economic impact","url":"https://media.api.sf.gov/documents/250700_economic_impact_final.pdf","published":"October 29, 2025","retrieved":"September 11, 2026","sourceType":"Original 42-page economic model; relevant production, demolition and price tables read, not a donor-effect study"},{"id":"planning","publisher":"SF Planning","title":"Family Zoning Plan implementation","url":"https://sfplanning.org/sf-family-zoning-plan","published":"Adopted December 2025; effective January 12, 2026; mutable page","retrieved":"September 11, 2026","sourceType":"Fresh primary-source inspection; limitations stated in report"},{"id":"ab610","publisher":"California Legislature","title":"Enacted AB 610, Chapter 494","url":"https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202520260AB610","published":"Published October 13, 2025","retrieved":"September 11, 2026","sourceType":"Final enacted disclosure provision read; explicitly does not prohibit new constraints"},{"id":"public-ta","publisher":"ABAG","title":"AB 130 and SB 131 implementation resources","url":"https://www.abag.ca.gov/technical-assistance/assembly-bill-ab-130-and-senate-bill-sb-131","published":"2025 reforms; mutable resource page","retrieved":"September 11, 2026","sourceType":"Official indexed description only; full page access failed/403. Do not claim full review"},{"id":"signed","publisher":"Governor of California","title":"Housing and CEQA reforms signed","url":"https://www.gov.ca.gov/2025/06/30/governor-newsom-signs-into-law-groundbreaking-reforms-to-build-more-housing-affordability/","published":"June 30, 2025","retrieved":"September 11, 2026","sourceType":"Official signing notice/indexed source; establishes historical baseline, not HAC attribution"},{"id":"fire","publisher":"San José Fire Department","title":"Supplemental building standards memorandum","url":"https://sanjose.legistar.com/gateway.aspx?ID=f73d2751-c5e3-4e85-b433-475fb930cbe9.pdf&M=F","published":"October 28, 2025","retrieved":"September 11, 2026","sourceType":"Original four-page staff memorandum; technical baseline, not final 2026 single-stair outcome"},{"id":"supply","publisher":"Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia — Asquith, Mast and Reed","title":"Supply Shock Versus Demand Shock","url":"https://www.philadelphiafed.org/community-development/housing-and-neighborhoods/supply-shock-versus-demand-shock-the-local-effects-of-new-housing-in-low-income-areas","published":"February 2020","retrieved":"September 11, 2026","sourceType":"Primary working-paper summary read; full 17.9MB PDF refused by browser and not downloaded"},{"id":"bentley","publisher":"American Journal of Epidemiology — Bentley et al.","title":"Housing affordability and mental health","url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21821543/","published":"Online August 5, 2011; issue October 1, 2011","retrieved":"September 11, 2026","sourceType":"Primary abstract inspected; no SF-36-to-utility conversion established"},{"id":"denary","publisher":"SSM Population Health — Denary et al.","title":"Does rental assistance improve mental health?","url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34144434/","published":"2021","retrieved":"Inherited September 11, 2026 bridge; failed fresh reopening explicitly marked","sourceType":"Inherited primary abstract check from immediately preceding SPUR evidence bridge; present reopen yielded no text"}],"rankingStatistic":"central partial-health scenario","verifiedMarginalFundingOffer":null}