{"edition":"usa","organization":"Kids and Car Safety","organizationId":"org:kids-and-car-safety","boundaryVersion":"USA-50-states-DC-v1","updated":"2026-10-02","display":{"metric":{"id":"daly-equivalent","years":1,"label":"DALY","priceLabel":"$ / DALY"},"priceUSD":null,"canonicalPriceUSDPerTenEquivalentYears":null,"conversion":"display only; QALYs and income equivalents are not measured clinical DALYs"},"listDisplay":{"metric":{"id":"daly-equivalent","years":1,"label":"DALY","priceLabel":"$ / DALY"},"priceUSD":91973.96998087635,"canonicalPriceUSDPerTenEquivalentYears":919739.6998087636,"conversion":"display only; QALYs and income equivalents are not measured clinical DALYs"},"model":{"version":"kacs-usa-advanced-detection-health-resources-judgment-20261002","costScope":"Full annual recipient expense normalizes a conditional partial advocacy pathway, not five recurring budgets or a priced funding offer. Public/manufacturer implementation resources are not fully priced.","geographicAttribution":"National USA burden and acquisition cohort; domestic outcome share1, no foreign benefits.","formula":"work=min(gift/annualRecipientCost,capacity<=1); delta=(pWith-pWithout)*work; finite discounted health from early-versus-late protection plus separately signed acquisition and episode consumption logs. combined=health+resources; positive price only if combined>0.","counterfactual":"Same eventual advanced-system acquisition occurs later; current reminders/radar, public duties, manufacturers and other advocates continue. Actual price losses reverse only as accounting comparisons at later receipt dates.","attribution":"The .005 direct probability change is explicitly a standardized elicitation prior, not independently calibrated KACS causal influence. Other actors/reserves/replacement are included in this contrast once.","uncertainty":"Partial conditional planning model dominated by unmeasured influence, effectiveness, homogeneous purchaser/risk mapping, net device price and morbidity/household cash incidence. No empirical scenario weights, complete-portfolio EV or donor readiness.","nativeOutcomes":"Earlier effective detection and rescue may prevent child deaths and nonfatal heat injury. The preferred modeled acquisition-cost timing outweighs those clinical benefits; cheaper net devices reverse the sign. Historical $920K is preserved separately, not confirmed.","inputs":[{"name":"gift","value":10000,"unit":"See parameter definition and finite model ledger","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Declared finite forecast prior, not measured organization effect. Cost/clinical/resource timing, cohort incidence and offsets described in cost section.","sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"]},{"name":"cost","value":256454,"unit":"See parameter definition and finite model ledger","basis":"observed","rationale":"Prior FY2024 original receipt plus fresh IRS-derived extraction; original re-retrieval inaccessible, not a marginal quote.","sourceIds":["kacs-index"]},{"name":"pWith","value":0.255,"unit":"See parameter definition and finite model ledger","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Declared finite forecast prior, not measured organization effect. Cost/clinical/resource timing, cohort incidence and offsets described in cost section.","sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"]},{"name":"pWithout","value":0.25,"unit":"See parameter definition and finite model ledger","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Declared finite forecast prior, not measured organization effect. Cost/clinical/resource timing, cohort incidence and offsets described in cost section.","sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"]},{"name":"capacity","value":1,"unit":"See parameter definition and finite model ledger","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Declared finite forecast prior, not measured organization effect. Cost/clinical/resource timing, cohort incidence and offsets described in cost section.","sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"]},{"name":"deaths","value":31,"unit":"See parameter definition and finite model ledger","basis":"observed","rationale":"NHTSA completed2025 surveillance count, not charity outcomes.","sourceIds":["nhtsa-heatstroke"]},{"name":"effectiveness","value":0.6,"unit":"See parameter definition and finite model ledger","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Declared finite forecast prior, not measured organization effect. Cost/clinical/resource timing, cohort incidence and offsets described in cost section.","sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"]},{"name":"coverageCap","value":0.8,"unit":"See parameter definition and finite model ledger","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Declared finite forecast prior, not measured organization effect. Cost/clinical/resource timing, cohort incidence and offsets described in cost section.","sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"]},{"name":"annualCoverage","value":0.05,"unit":"See parameter definition and finite model ledger","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Declared finite forecast prior, not measured organization effect. Cost/clinical/resource timing, cohort incidence and offsets described in cost section.","sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"]},{"name":"early","value":5,"unit":"See parameter definition and finite model ledger","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Declared finite forecast prior, not measured organization effect. Cost/clinical/resource timing, cohort incidence and offsets described in cost section.","sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"]},{"name":"late","value":6,"unit":"See parameter definition and finite model ledger","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Declared finite forecast prior, not measured organization effect. Cost/clinical/resource timing, cohort incidence and offsets described in cost section.","sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"]},{"name":"discount","value":0.03,"unit":"See parameter definition and finite model ledger","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Declared finite forecast prior, not measured organization effect. Cost/clinical/resource timing, cohort incidence and offsets described in cost section.","sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"]},{"name":"lifeYears","value":60,"unit":"See parameter definition and finite model ledger","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Declared finite forecast prior, not measured organization effect. Cost/clinical/resource timing, cohort incidence and offsets described in cost section.","sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"]},{"name":"lifeUtility","value":0.95,"unit":"See parameter definition and finite model ledger","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Declared finite forecast prior, not measured organization effect. Cost/clinical/resource timing, cohort incidence and offsets described in cost section.","sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"]},{"name":"nonfatalPerDeath","value":1,"unit":"See parameter definition and finite model ledger","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Declared finite forecast prior, not measured organization effect. Cost/clinical/resource timing, cohort incidence and offsets described in cost section.","sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"]},{"name":"nonfatalUtility","value":0.2,"unit":"See parameter definition and finite model ledger","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Declared finite forecast prior, not measured organization effect. Cost/clinical/resource timing, cohort incidence and offsets described in cost section.","sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"]},{"name":"nonfatalYears","value":1,"unit":"See parameter definition and finite model ledger","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Declared finite forecast prior, not measured organization effect. Cost/clinical/resource timing, cohort incidence and offsets described in cost section.","sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"]},{"name":"rescueHarm","value":0.05,"unit":"See parameter definition and finite model ledger","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Declared finite forecast prior, not measured organization effect. Cost/clinical/resource timing, cohort incidence and offsets described in cost section.","sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"]},{"name":"households","value":100000000,"unit":"See parameter definition and finite model ledger","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Declared finite forecast prior, not measured organization effect. Cost/clinical/resource timing, cohort incidence and offsets described in cost section.","sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"]},{"name":"baseline","value":50000,"unit":"See parameter definition and finite model ledger","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Declared finite forecast prior, not measured organization effect. Cost/clinical/resource timing, cohort incidence and offsets described in cost section.","sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"]},{"name":"deviceCash","value":25,"unit":"See parameter definition and finite model ledger","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Declared finite forecast prior, not measured organization effect. Cost/clinical/resource timing, cohort incidence and offsets described in cost section.","sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"]},{"name":"nonfatalCash","value":1000,"unit":"See parameter definition and finite model ledger","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Declared finite forecast prior, not measured organization effect. Cost/clinical/resource timing, cohort incidence and offsets described in cost section.","sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"]},{"name":"rescueCash","value":-2500,"unit":"See parameter definition and finite model ledger","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Declared finite forecast prior, not measured organization effect. Cost/clinical/resource timing, cohort incidence and offsets described in cost section.","sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"]},{"name":"overlap","value":0,"unit":"See parameter definition and finite model ledger","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Declared finite forecast prior, not measured organization effect. Cost/clinical/resource timing, cohort incidence and offsets described in cost section.","sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"]},{"name":"policyHealthHarm","value":0,"unit":"See parameter definition and finite model ledger","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Declared finite forecast prior, not measured organization effect. Cost/clinical/resource timing, cohort incidence and offsets described in cost section.","sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"]},{"name":"independentHealthHarm","value":0,"unit":"See parameter definition and finite model ledger","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Declared finite forecast prior, not measured organization effect. Cost/clinical/resource timing, cohort incidence and offsets described in cost section.","sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"]},{"name":"independentCashHarm","value":0,"unit":"See parameter definition and finite model ledger","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Declared finite forecast prior, not measured organization effect. Cost/clinical/resource timing, cohort incidence and offsets described in cost section.","sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"]},{"name":"healthKnown","value":true,"unit":"See parameter definition and finite model ledger","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Declared finite forecast prior, not measured organization effect. Cost/clinical/resource timing, cohort incidence and offsets described in cost section.","sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"]},{"name":"incomeKnown","value":true,"unit":"See parameter definition and finite model ledger","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Declared finite forecast prior, not measured organization effect. Cost/clinical/resource timing, cohort incidence and offsets described in cost section.","sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"]}],"scenarios":[{"id":"central","label":"Conditional health-and-resource forecast","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0.05350730746770561,"editionQalys":0.05350730746770561,"incomeUnknown":false,"incomePathways":[{"people":15597.339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-25,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Earlier advanced-system acquisition: once-only net household price loss. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":15597.339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":25.012506253126567,"years":1,"delayYears":13.186523328924695,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Later identical counterfactual acquisition: reversal of the same once-only consumption loss, not permanent savings. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.002901105071474809,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":1000,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Distinct avoided nonfatal episode: once-only medical/unreplaced caregiver-pay resources. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.002901105071474809,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-2500,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Otherwise-fatal rescue episode: once-only net acute household bill. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."}],"costPer10Qalys":null,"combinedEquivalentYears":-0.02576410645909554,"assumptions":"USA partial advanced-detection timing branch; not full portfolio or an identified marginal offer. Exact parameters={\"gift\":10000,\"cost\":256454,\"pWith\":0.255,\"pWithout\":0.25,\"capacity\":1,\"deaths\":31,\"effectiveness\":0.6,\"coverageCap\":0.8,\"annualCoverage\":0.05,\"early\":5,\"late\":6,\"discount\":0.03,\"lifeYears\":60,\"lifeUtility\":0.95,\"nonfatalPerDeath\":1,\"nonfatalUtility\":0.2,\"nonfatalYears\":1,\"rescueHarm\":0.05,\"households\":100000000,\"baseline\":50000,\"deviceCash\":25,\"nonfatalCash\":1000,\"rescueCash\":-2500,\"overlap\":0,\"policyHealthHarm\":0,\"independentHealthHarm\":0,\"independentCashHarm\":0,\"healthKnown\":true,\"incomeKnown\":true}. One-year resource windows have their own effective receipt delay; the discounted early-versus-late acquisition ledger converges completely. Reversed signed logs are accounting equivalents, not actual extra cash. Probability .005 is a standardized elicitation prior, not a measured KACS causal effect."},{"id":"lowIncrementalPrice","label":"lowIncrementalPrice","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0.05350730746770561,"editionQalys":0.05350730746770561,"incomeUnknown":false,"incomePathways":[{"people":15597.339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-14.999999999999998,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Earlier advanced-system acquisition: once-only net household price loss. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":15597.339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":15.00450135040512,"years":1,"delayYears":13.186523328924695,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Later identical counterfactual acquisition: reversal of the same once-only consumption loss, not permanent savings. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.002901105071474809,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":1000,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Distinct avoided nonfatal episode: once-only medical/unreplaced caregiver-pay resources. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.002901105071474809,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-2500,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Otherwise-fatal rescue episode: once-only net acute household bill. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."}],"costPer10Qalys":16845027.436546728,"combinedEquivalentYears":0.005936469998442474,"assumptions":"USA partial advanced-detection timing branch; not full portfolio or an identified marginal offer. Exact parameters={\"gift\":10000,\"cost\":256454,\"pWith\":0.255,\"pWithout\":0.25,\"capacity\":1,\"deaths\":31,\"effectiveness\":0.6,\"coverageCap\":0.8,\"annualCoverage\":0.05,\"early\":5,\"late\":6,\"discount\":0.03,\"lifeYears\":60,\"lifeUtility\":0.95,\"nonfatalPerDeath\":1,\"nonfatalUtility\":0.2,\"nonfatalYears\":1,\"rescueHarm\":0.05,\"households\":100000000,\"baseline\":50000,\"deviceCash\":15,\"nonfatalCash\":1000,\"rescueCash\":-2500,\"overlap\":0,\"policyHealthHarm\":0,\"independentHealthHarm\":0,\"independentCashHarm\":0,\"healthKnown\":true,\"incomeKnown\":true}. One-year resource windows have their own effective receipt delay; the discounted early-versus-late acquisition ledger converges completely. Reversed signed logs are accounting equivalents, not actual extra cash. Probability .005 is a standardized elicitation prior, not a measured KACS causal effect."},{"id":"zeroDevicePrice","label":"zeroDevicePrice","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0.05350730746770561,"editionQalys":0.05350730746770561,"incomeUnknown":false,"incomePathways":[{"people":0.002901105071474809,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":1000,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Distinct avoided nonfatal episode: once-only medical/unreplaced caregiver-pay resources. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.002901105071474809,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-2500,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Otherwise-fatal rescue episode: once-only net acute household bill. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."}],"costPer10Qalys":1870017.1505517468,"combinedEquivalentYears":0.053475445383212174,"assumptions":"USA partial advanced-detection timing branch; not full portfolio or an identified marginal offer. Exact parameters={\"gift\":10000,\"cost\":256454,\"pWith\":0.255,\"pWithout\":0.25,\"capacity\":1,\"deaths\":31,\"effectiveness\":0.6,\"coverageCap\":0.8,\"annualCoverage\":0.05,\"early\":5,\"late\":6,\"discount\":0.03,\"lifeYears\":60,\"lifeUtility\":0.95,\"nonfatalPerDeath\":1,\"nonfatalUtility\":0.2,\"nonfatalYears\":1,\"rescueHarm\":0.05,\"households\":100000000,\"baseline\":50000,\"deviceCash\":0,\"nonfatalCash\":1000,\"rescueCash\":-2500,\"overlap\":0,\"policyHealthHarm\":0,\"independentHealthHarm\":0,\"independentCashHarm\":0,\"healthKnown\":true,\"incomeKnown\":true}. One-year resource windows have their own effective receipt delay; the discounted early-versus-late acquisition ledger converges completely. Reversed signed logs are accounting equivalents, not actual extra cash. Probability .005 is a standardized elicitation prior, not a measured KACS causal effect."},{"id":"higherDevicePrice","label":"higherDevicePrice","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0.05350730746770561,"editionQalys":0.05350730746770561,"incomeUnknown":false,"incomePathways":[{"people":15597.339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-50,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Earlier advanced-system acquisition: once-only net household price loss. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":15597.339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":50.05005005005005,"years":1,"delayYears":13.186523328924695,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Later identical counterfactual acquisition: reversal of the same once-only consumption loss, not permanent savings. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.002901105071474809,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":1000,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Distinct avoided nonfatal episode: once-only medical/unreplaced caregiver-pay resources. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.002901105071474809,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-2500,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Otherwise-fatal rescue episode: once-only net acute household bill. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."}],"costPer10Qalys":null,"combinedEquivalentYears":-0.10504330781611332,"assumptions":"USA partial advanced-detection timing branch; not full portfolio or an identified marginal offer. Exact parameters={\"gift\":10000,\"cost\":256454,\"pWith\":0.255,\"pWithout\":0.25,\"capacity\":1,\"deaths\":31,\"effectiveness\":0.6,\"coverageCap\":0.8,\"annualCoverage\":0.05,\"early\":5,\"late\":6,\"discount\":0.03,\"lifeYears\":60,\"lifeUtility\":0.95,\"nonfatalPerDeath\":1,\"nonfatalUtility\":0.2,\"nonfatalYears\":1,\"rescueHarm\":0.05,\"households\":100000000,\"baseline\":50000,\"deviceCash\":50,\"nonfatalCash\":1000,\"rescueCash\":-2500,\"overlap\":0,\"policyHealthHarm\":0,\"independentHealthHarm\":0,\"independentCashHarm\":0,\"healthKnown\":true,\"incomeKnown\":true}. One-year resource windows have their own effective receipt delay; the discounted early-versus-late acquisition ledger converges completely. Reversed signed logs are accounting equivalents, not actual extra cash. Probability .005 is a standardized elicitation prior, not a measured KACS causal effect."},{"id":"noPolicyDifference","label":"noPolicyDifference","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"incomeUnknown":false,"incomePathways":[],"costPer10Qalys":null,"combinedEquivalentYears":0,"assumptions":"USA partial advanced-detection timing branch; not full portfolio or an identified marginal offer. Exact parameters={\"gift\":10000,\"cost\":256454,\"pWith\":0.25,\"pWithout\":0.25,\"capacity\":1,\"deaths\":31,\"effectiveness\":0.6,\"coverageCap\":0.8,\"annualCoverage\":0.05,\"early\":5,\"late\":6,\"discount\":0.03,\"lifeYears\":60,\"lifeUtility\":0.95,\"nonfatalPerDeath\":1,\"nonfatalUtility\":0.2,\"nonfatalYears\":1,\"rescueHarm\":0.05,\"households\":100000000,\"baseline\":50000,\"deviceCash\":25,\"nonfatalCash\":1000,\"rescueCash\":-2500,\"overlap\":0,\"policyHealthHarm\":0,\"independentHealthHarm\":0,\"independentCashHarm\":0,\"healthKnown\":true,\"incomeKnown\":true}. One-year resource windows have their own effective receipt delay; the discounted early-versus-late acquisition ledger converges completely. Reversed signed logs are accounting equivalents, not actual extra cash. Probability .005 is a standardized elicitation prior, not a measured KACS causal effect."},{"id":"replacement","label":"replacement","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0.005350730746770561,"editionQalys":0.005350730746770561,"incomeUnknown":false,"incomePathways":[{"people":1559.7339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-25,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Earlier advanced-system acquisition: once-only net household price loss. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":1559.7339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":25.012506253126567,"years":1,"delayYears":13.186523328924695,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Later identical counterfactual acquisition: reversal of the same once-only consumption loss, not permanent savings. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.00029011050714748086,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":1000,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Distinct avoided nonfatal episode: once-only medical/unreplaced caregiver-pay resources. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.00029011050714748086,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-2500,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Otherwise-fatal rescue episode: once-only net acute household bill. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."}],"costPer10Qalys":null,"combinedEquivalentYears":-0.0025764106459095536,"assumptions":"USA partial advanced-detection timing branch; not full portfolio or an identified marginal offer. Exact parameters={\"gift\":10000,\"cost\":256454,\"pWith\":0.2505,\"pWithout\":0.25,\"capacity\":1,\"deaths\":31,\"effectiveness\":0.6,\"coverageCap\":0.8,\"annualCoverage\":0.05,\"early\":5,\"late\":6,\"discount\":0.03,\"lifeYears\":60,\"lifeUtility\":0.95,\"nonfatalPerDeath\":1,\"nonfatalUtility\":0.2,\"nonfatalYears\":1,\"rescueHarm\":0.05,\"households\":100000000,\"baseline\":50000,\"deviceCash\":25,\"nonfatalCash\":1000,\"rescueCash\":-2500,\"overlap\":0,\"policyHealthHarm\":0,\"independentHealthHarm\":0,\"independentCashHarm\":0,\"healthKnown\":true,\"incomeKnown\":true}. One-year resource windows have their own effective receipt delay; the discounted early-versus-late acquisition ledger converges completely. Reversed signed logs are accounting equivalents, not actual extra cash. Probability .005 is a standardized elicitation prior, not a measured KACS causal effect."},{"id":"strongInfluence","label":"strongInfluence","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0.10701461493541121,"editionQalys":0.10701461493541121,"incomeUnknown":false,"incomePathways":[{"people":31194.678187901172,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-25,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Earlier advanced-system acquisition: once-only net household price loss. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":31194.678187901172,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":25.012506253126567,"years":1,"delayYears":13.186523328924695,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Later identical counterfactual acquisition: reversal of the same once-only consumption loss, not permanent savings. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.005802210142949618,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":1000,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Distinct avoided nonfatal episode: once-only medical/unreplaced caregiver-pay resources. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.005802210142949618,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-2500,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Otherwise-fatal rescue episode: once-only net acute household bill. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."}],"costPer10Qalys":null,"combinedEquivalentYears":-0.05152821291819108,"assumptions":"USA partial advanced-detection timing branch; not full portfolio or an identified marginal offer. Exact parameters={\"gift\":10000,\"cost\":256454,\"pWith\":0.26,\"pWithout\":0.25,\"capacity\":1,\"deaths\":31,\"effectiveness\":0.6,\"coverageCap\":0.8,\"annualCoverage\":0.05,\"early\":5,\"late\":6,\"discount\":0.03,\"lifeYears\":60,\"lifeUtility\":0.95,\"nonfatalPerDeath\":1,\"nonfatalUtility\":0.2,\"nonfatalYears\":1,\"rescueHarm\":0.05,\"households\":100000000,\"baseline\":50000,\"deviceCash\":25,\"nonfatalCash\":1000,\"rescueCash\":-2500,\"overlap\":0,\"policyHealthHarm\":0,\"independentHealthHarm\":0,\"independentCashHarm\":0,\"healthKnown\":true,\"incomeKnown\":true}. One-year resource windows have their own effective receipt delay; the discounted early-versus-late acquisition ledger converges completely. Reversed signed logs are accounting equivalents, not actual extra cash. Probability .005 is a standardized elicitation prior, not a measured KACS causal effect."},{"id":"capacity","label":"capacity","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0.013722163029322974,"editionQalys":0.013722163029322974,"incomeUnknown":false,"incomePathways":[{"people":4000.0000000000036,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-25,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Earlier advanced-system acquisition: once-only net household price loss. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":4000.0000000000036,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":25.012506253126567,"years":1,"delayYears":13.186523328924695,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Later identical counterfactual acquisition: reversal of the same once-only consumption loss, not permanent savings. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.0007440000000000006,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":1000,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Distinct avoided nonfatal episode: once-only medical/unreplaced caregiver-pay resources. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.0007440000000000006,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-2500,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Otherwise-fatal rescue episode: once-only net acute household bill. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."}],"costPer10Qalys":null,"combinedEquivalentYears":-0.00660730815786089,"assumptions":"USA partial advanced-detection timing branch; not full portfolio or an identified marginal offer. Exact parameters={\"gift\":10000,\"cost\":256454,\"pWith\":0.255,\"pWithout\":0.25,\"capacity\":0.01,\"deaths\":31,\"effectiveness\":0.6,\"coverageCap\":0.8,\"annualCoverage\":0.05,\"early\":5,\"late\":6,\"discount\":0.03,\"lifeYears\":60,\"lifeUtility\":0.95,\"nonfatalPerDeath\":1,\"nonfatalUtility\":0.2,\"nonfatalYears\":1,\"rescueHarm\":0.05,\"households\":100000000,\"baseline\":50000,\"deviceCash\":25,\"nonfatalCash\":1000,\"rescueCash\":-2500,\"overlap\":0,\"policyHealthHarm\":0,\"independentHealthHarm\":0,\"independentCashHarm\":0,\"healthKnown\":true,\"incomeKnown\":true}. One-year resource windows have their own effective receipt delay; the discounted early-versus-late acquisition ledger converges completely. Reversed signed logs are accounting equivalents, not actual extra cash. Probability .005 is a standardized elicitation prior, not a measured KACS causal effect."},{"id":"clinicalLower","label":"clinicalLower","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0.026753653733852804,"editionQalys":0.026753653733852804,"incomeUnknown":false,"incomePathways":[{"people":15597.339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-25,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Earlier advanced-system acquisition: once-only net household price loss. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":15597.339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":25.012506253126567,"years":1,"delayYears":13.186523328924695,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Later identical counterfactual acquisition: reversal of the same once-only consumption loss, not permanent savings. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.0014505525357374044,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":1000,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Distinct avoided nonfatal episode: once-only medical/unreplaced caregiver-pay resources. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.0014505525357374044,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-2500,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Otherwise-fatal rescue episode: once-only net acute household bill. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."}],"costPer10Qalys":null,"combinedEquivalentYears":-0.05250182915070163,"assumptions":"USA partial advanced-detection timing branch; not full portfolio or an identified marginal offer. Exact parameters={\"gift\":10000,\"cost\":256454,\"pWith\":0.255,\"pWithout\":0.25,\"capacity\":1,\"deaths\":31,\"effectiveness\":0.3,\"coverageCap\":0.8,\"annualCoverage\":0.05,\"early\":5,\"late\":6,\"discount\":0.03,\"lifeYears\":60,\"lifeUtility\":0.95,\"nonfatalPerDeath\":1,\"nonfatalUtility\":0.2,\"nonfatalYears\":1,\"rescueHarm\":0.05,\"households\":100000000,\"baseline\":50000,\"deviceCash\":25,\"nonfatalCash\":1000,\"rescueCash\":-2500,\"overlap\":0,\"policyHealthHarm\":0,\"independentHealthHarm\":0,\"independentCashHarm\":0,\"healthKnown\":true,\"incomeKnown\":true}. One-year resource windows have their own effective receipt delay; the discounted early-versus-late acquisition ledger converges completely. Reversed signed logs are accounting equivalents, not actual extra cash. Probability .005 is a standardized elicitation prior, not a measured KACS causal effect."},{"id":"clinicalZero","label":"clinicalZero","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":-0.00010117945231513239,"editionQalys":-0.00010117945231513239,"incomeUnknown":false,"incomePathways":[{"people":15597.339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-25,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Earlier advanced-system acquisition: once-only net household price loss. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":15597.339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":25.012506253126567,"years":1,"delayYears":13.186523328924695,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Later identical counterfactual acquisition: reversal of the same once-only consumption loss, not permanent savings. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.002901105071474809,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":1000,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Distinct avoided nonfatal episode: once-only medical/unreplaced caregiver-pay resources. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.002901105071474809,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-2500,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Otherwise-fatal rescue episode: once-only net acute household bill. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."}],"costPer10Qalys":null,"combinedEquivalentYears":-0.07937259337911629,"assumptions":"USA partial advanced-detection timing branch; not full portfolio or an identified marginal offer. Exact parameters={\"gift\":10000,\"cost\":256454,\"pWith\":0.255,\"pWithout\":0.25,\"capacity\":1,\"deaths\":31,\"effectiveness\":0.6,\"coverageCap\":0.8,\"annualCoverage\":0.05,\"early\":5,\"late\":6,\"discount\":0.03,\"lifeYears\":60,\"lifeUtility\":0,\"nonfatalPerDeath\":1,\"nonfatalUtility\":0,\"nonfatalYears\":1,\"rescueHarm\":0.05,\"households\":100000000,\"baseline\":50000,\"deviceCash\":25,\"nonfatalCash\":1000,\"rescueCash\":-2500,\"overlap\":0,\"policyHealthHarm\":0,\"independentHealthHarm\":0,\"independentCashHarm\":0,\"healthKnown\":true,\"incomeKnown\":true}. One-year resource windows have their own effective receipt delay; the discounted early-versus-late acquisition ledger converges completely. Reversed signed logs are accounting equivalents, not actual extra cash. Probability .005 is a standardized elicitation prior, not a measured KACS causal effect."},{"id":"clinicalUpper","label":"clinicalUpper","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0.07134307662360748,"editionQalys":0.07134307662360748,"incomeUnknown":false,"incomePathways":[{"people":15597.339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-25,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Earlier advanced-system acquisition: once-only net household price loss. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":15597.339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":25.012506253126567,"years":1,"delayYears":13.186523328924695,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Later identical counterfactual acquisition: reversal of the same once-only consumption loss, not permanent savings. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.003868140095299746,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":1000,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Distinct avoided nonfatal episode: once-only medical/unreplaced caregiver-pay resources. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.003868140095299746,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-2500,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Otherwise-fatal rescue episode: once-only net acute household bill. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."}],"costPer10Qalys":null,"combinedEquivalentYears":-0.007938957998024812,"assumptions":"USA partial advanced-detection timing branch; not full portfolio or an identified marginal offer. Exact parameters={\"gift\":10000,\"cost\":256454,\"pWith\":0.255,\"pWithout\":0.25,\"capacity\":1,\"deaths\":31,\"effectiveness\":0.8,\"coverageCap\":0.8,\"annualCoverage\":0.05,\"early\":5,\"late\":6,\"discount\":0.03,\"lifeYears\":60,\"lifeUtility\":0.95,\"nonfatalPerDeath\":1,\"nonfatalUtility\":0.2,\"nonfatalYears\":1,\"rescueHarm\":0.05,\"households\":100000000,\"baseline\":50000,\"deviceCash\":25,\"nonfatalCash\":1000,\"rescueCash\":-2500,\"overlap\":0,\"policyHealthHarm\":0,\"independentHealthHarm\":0,\"independentCashHarm\":0,\"healthKnown\":true,\"incomeKnown\":true}. One-year resource windows have their own effective receipt delay; the discounted early-versus-late acquisition ledger converges completely. Reversed signed logs are accounting equivalents, not actual extra cash. Probability .005 is a standardized elicitation prior, not a measured KACS causal effect."},{"id":"life30","label":"life30","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0.03798361485355568,"editionQalys":0.03798361485355568,"incomeUnknown":false,"incomePathways":[{"people":15597.339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-25,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Earlier advanced-system acquisition: once-only net household price loss. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":15597.339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":25.012506253126567,"years":1,"delayYears":13.186523328924695,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Later identical counterfactual acquisition: reversal of the same once-only consumption loss, not permanent savings. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.002901105071474809,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":1000,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Distinct avoided nonfatal episode: once-only medical/unreplaced caregiver-pay resources. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.002901105071474809,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-2500,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Otherwise-fatal rescue episode: once-only net acute household bill. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."}],"costPer10Qalys":null,"combinedEquivalentYears":-0.041287799073245465,"assumptions":"USA partial advanced-detection timing branch; not full portfolio or an identified marginal offer. Exact parameters={\"gift\":10000,\"cost\":256454,\"pWith\":0.255,\"pWithout\":0.25,\"capacity\":1,\"deaths\":31,\"effectiveness\":0.6,\"coverageCap\":0.8,\"annualCoverage\":0.05,\"early\":5,\"late\":6,\"discount\":0.03,\"lifeYears\":30,\"lifeUtility\":0.95,\"nonfatalPerDeath\":1,\"nonfatalUtility\":0.2,\"nonfatalYears\":1,\"rescueHarm\":0.05,\"households\":100000000,\"baseline\":50000,\"deviceCash\":25,\"nonfatalCash\":1000,\"rescueCash\":-2500,\"overlap\":0,\"policyHealthHarm\":0,\"independentHealthHarm\":0,\"independentCashHarm\":0,\"healthKnown\":true,\"incomeKnown\":true}. One-year resource windows have their own effective receipt delay; the discounted early-versus-late acquisition ledger converges completely. Reversed signed logs are accounting equivalents, not actual extra cash. Probability .005 is a standardized elicitation prior, not a measured KACS causal effect."},{"id":"life80","label":"life80","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0.0583617757509489,"editionQalys":0.0583617757509489,"incomeUnknown":false,"incomePathways":[{"people":15597.339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-25,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Earlier advanced-system acquisition: once-only net household price loss. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":15597.339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":25.012506253126567,"years":1,"delayYears":13.186523328924695,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Later identical counterfactual acquisition: reversal of the same once-only consumption loss, not permanent savings. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.002901105071474809,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":1000,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Distinct avoided nonfatal episode: once-only medical/unreplaced caregiver-pay resources. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.002901105071474809,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-2500,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Otherwise-fatal rescue episode: once-only net acute household bill. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."}],"costPer10Qalys":null,"combinedEquivalentYears":-0.02090963817585225,"assumptions":"USA partial advanced-detection timing branch; not full portfolio or an identified marginal offer. Exact parameters={\"gift\":10000,\"cost\":256454,\"pWith\":0.255,\"pWithout\":0.25,\"capacity\":1,\"deaths\":31,\"effectiveness\":0.6,\"coverageCap\":0.8,\"annualCoverage\":0.05,\"early\":5,\"late\":6,\"discount\":0.03,\"lifeYears\":80,\"lifeUtility\":0.95,\"nonfatalPerDeath\":1,\"nonfatalUtility\":0.2,\"nonfatalYears\":1,\"rescueHarm\":0.05,\"households\":100000000,\"baseline\":50000,\"deviceCash\":25,\"nonfatalCash\":1000,\"rescueCash\":-2500,\"overlap\":0,\"policyHealthHarm\":0,\"independentHealthHarm\":0,\"independentCashHarm\":0,\"healthKnown\":true,\"incomeKnown\":true}. One-year resource windows have their own effective receipt delay; the discounted early-versus-late acquisition ledger converges completely. Reversed signed logs are accounting equivalents, not actual extra cash. Probability .005 is a standardized elicitation prior, not a measured KACS causal effect."},{"id":"oneMoreYearLead","label":"oneMoreYearLead","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0.10861983415944235,"editionQalys":0.10861983415944235,"incomeUnknown":false,"incomePathways":[{"people":15597.339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-25,"years":1,"delayYears":11.1865233289247,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Earlier advanced-system acquisition: once-only net household price loss. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":15597.339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":25.012506253126567,"years":1,"delayYears":13.186523328924695,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Later identical counterfactual acquisition: reversal of the same once-only consumption loss, not permanent savings. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.005802210142949619,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":1000,"years":1,"delayYears":11.682828613148123,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Distinct avoided nonfatal episode: once-only medical/unreplaced caregiver-pay resources. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.005802210142949619,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-2500,"years":1,"delayYears":11.682828613148123,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Otherwise-fatal rescue episode: once-only net acute household bill. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."}],"costPer10Qalys":null,"combinedEquivalentYears":-0.052301136111963964,"assumptions":"USA partial advanced-detection timing branch; not full portfolio or an identified marginal offer. Exact parameters={\"gift\":10000,\"cost\":256454,\"pWith\":0.255,\"pWithout\":0.25,\"capacity\":1,\"deaths\":31,\"effectiveness\":0.6,\"coverageCap\":0.8,\"annualCoverage\":0.05,\"early\":4,\"late\":6,\"discount\":0.03,\"lifeYears\":60,\"lifeUtility\":0.95,\"nonfatalPerDeath\":1,\"nonfatalUtility\":0.2,\"nonfatalYears\":1,\"rescueHarm\":0.05,\"households\":100000000,\"baseline\":50000,\"deviceCash\":25,\"nonfatalCash\":1000,\"rescueCash\":-2500,\"overlap\":0,\"policyHealthHarm\":0,\"independentHealthHarm\":0,\"independentCashHarm\":0,\"healthKnown\":true,\"incomeKnown\":true}. One-year resource windows have their own effective receipt delay; the discounted early-versus-late acquisition ledger converges completely. Reversed signed logs are accounting equivalents, not actual extra cash. Probability .005 is a standardized elicitation prior, not a measured KACS causal effect."},{"id":"policyDelay","label":"policyDelay","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":-0.051948842201655916,"editionQalys":-0.051948842201655916,"incomeUnknown":false,"incomePathways":[{"people":15597.339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-25,"years":1,"delayYears":14.186523328924697,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Earlier advanced-system acquisition: once-only net household price loss. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":15597.339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":25.012506253126567,"years":1,"delayYears":13.186523328924695,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Later identical counterfactual acquisition: reversal of the same once-only consumption loss, not permanent savings. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.002901105071474809,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-980.3921568627451,"years":1,"delayYears":13.186523328924695,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Distinct avoided nonfatal episode: once-only medical/unreplaced caregiver-pay resources. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.002901105071474809,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":2631.5789473684213,"years":1,"delayYears":13.186523328924695,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Otherwise-fatal rescue episode: once-only net acute household bill. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."}],"costPer10Qalys":3997809.905168964,"combinedEquivalentYears":0.025013695591354933,"assumptions":"USA partial advanced-detection timing branch; not full portfolio or an identified marginal offer. Exact parameters={\"gift\":10000,\"cost\":256454,\"pWith\":0.255,\"pWithout\":0.25,\"capacity\":1,\"deaths\":31,\"effectiveness\":0.6,\"coverageCap\":0.8,\"annualCoverage\":0.05,\"early\":7,\"late\":6,\"discount\":0.03,\"lifeYears\":60,\"lifeUtility\":0.95,\"nonfatalPerDeath\":1,\"nonfatalUtility\":0.2,\"nonfatalYears\":1,\"rescueHarm\":0.05,\"households\":100000000,\"baseline\":50000,\"deviceCash\":25,\"nonfatalCash\":1000,\"rescueCash\":-2500,\"overlap\":0,\"policyHealthHarm\":0,\"independentHealthHarm\":0,\"independentCashHarm\":0,\"healthKnown\":true,\"incomeKnown\":true}. One-year resource windows have their own effective receipt delay; the discounted early-versus-late acquisition ledger converges completely. Reversed signed logs are accounting equivalents, not actual extra cash. Probability .005 is a standardized elicitation prior, not a measured KACS causal effect."},{"id":"noAcceleration","label":"noAcceleration","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"incomeUnknown":false,"incomePathways":[{"people":15597.339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-25,"years":1,"delayYears":13.186523328924695,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Earlier advanced-system acquisition: once-only net household price loss. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":15597.339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":25.012506253126567,"years":1,"delayYears":13.186523328924695,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Later identical counterfactual acquisition: reversal of the same once-only consumption loss, not permanent savings. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."}],"costPer10Qalys":null,"combinedEquivalentYears":0,"assumptions":"USA partial advanced-detection timing branch; not full portfolio or an identified marginal offer. Exact parameters={\"gift\":10000,\"cost\":256454,\"pWith\":0.255,\"pWithout\":0.25,\"capacity\":1,\"deaths\":31,\"effectiveness\":0.6,\"coverageCap\":0.8,\"annualCoverage\":0.05,\"early\":6,\"late\":6,\"discount\":0.03,\"lifeYears\":60,\"lifeUtility\":0.95,\"nonfatalPerDeath\":1,\"nonfatalUtility\":0.2,\"nonfatalYears\":1,\"rescueHarm\":0.05,\"households\":100000000,\"baseline\":50000,\"deviceCash\":25,\"nonfatalCash\":1000,\"rescueCash\":-2500,\"overlap\":0,\"policyHealthHarm\":0,\"independentHealthHarm\":0,\"independentCashHarm\":0,\"healthKnown\":true,\"incomeKnown\":true}. One-year resource windows have their own effective receipt delay; the discounted early-versus-late acquisition ledger converges completely. Reversed signed logs are accounting equivalents, not actual extra cash. Probability .005 is a standardized elicitation prior, not a measured KACS causal effect."},{"id":"morbidityUnpriced","label":"morbidityUnpriced","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0.053102589658445075,"editionQalys":0.053102589658445075,"incomeUnknown":false,"incomePathways":[{"people":15597.339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-25,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Earlier advanced-system acquisition: once-only net household price loss. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":15597.339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":25.012506253126567,"years":1,"delayYears":13.186523328924695,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Later identical counterfactual acquisition: reversal of the same once-only consumption loss, not permanent savings. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.002901105071474809,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-2500,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Otherwise-fatal rescue episode: once-only net acute household bill. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."}],"costPer10Qalys":null,"combinedEquivalentYears":-0.026188860458198356,"assumptions":"USA partial advanced-detection timing branch; not full portfolio or an identified marginal offer. Exact parameters={\"gift\":10000,\"cost\":256454,\"pWith\":0.255,\"pWithout\":0.25,\"capacity\":1,\"deaths\":31,\"effectiveness\":0.6,\"coverageCap\":0.8,\"annualCoverage\":0.05,\"early\":5,\"late\":6,\"discount\":0.03,\"lifeYears\":60,\"lifeUtility\":0.95,\"nonfatalPerDeath\":0,\"nonfatalUtility\":0.2,\"nonfatalYears\":1,\"rescueHarm\":0.05,\"households\":100000000,\"baseline\":50000,\"deviceCash\":25,\"nonfatalCash\":1000,\"rescueCash\":-2500,\"overlap\":0,\"policyHealthHarm\":0,\"independentHealthHarm\":0,\"independentCashHarm\":0,\"healthKnown\":true,\"incomeKnown\":true}. One-year resource windows have their own effective receipt delay; the discounted early-versus-late acquisition ledger converges completely. Reversed signed logs are accounting equivalents, not actual extra cash. Probability .005 is a standardized elicitation prior, not a measured KACS causal effect."},{"id":"households50m","label":"households50m","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0.05350730746770561,"editionQalys":0.05350730746770561,"incomeUnknown":false,"incomePathways":[{"people":7798.669546975293,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-25,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Earlier advanced-system acquisition: once-only net household price loss. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":7798.669546975293,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":25.012506253126567,"years":1,"delayYears":13.186523328924695,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Later identical counterfactual acquisition: reversal of the same once-only consumption loss, not permanent savings. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.002901105071474809,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":1000,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Distinct avoided nonfatal episode: once-only medical/unreplaced caregiver-pay resources. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.002901105071474809,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-2500,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Otherwise-fatal rescue episode: once-only net acute household bill. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."}],"costPer10Qalys":7217262.238669527,"combinedEquivalentYears":0.013855669462058316,"assumptions":"USA partial advanced-detection timing branch; not full portfolio or an identified marginal offer. Exact parameters={\"gift\":10000,\"cost\":256454,\"pWith\":0.255,\"pWithout\":0.25,\"capacity\":1,\"deaths\":31,\"effectiveness\":0.6,\"coverageCap\":0.8,\"annualCoverage\":0.05,\"early\":5,\"late\":6,\"discount\":0.03,\"lifeYears\":60,\"lifeUtility\":0.95,\"nonfatalPerDeath\":1,\"nonfatalUtility\":0.2,\"nonfatalYears\":1,\"rescueHarm\":0.05,\"households\":50000000,\"baseline\":50000,\"deviceCash\":25,\"nonfatalCash\":1000,\"rescueCash\":-2500,\"overlap\":0,\"policyHealthHarm\":0,\"independentHealthHarm\":0,\"independentCashHarm\":0,\"healthKnown\":true,\"incomeKnown\":true}. One-year resource windows have their own effective receipt delay; the discounted early-versus-late acquisition ledger converges completely. Reversed signed logs are accounting equivalents, not actual extra cash. Probability .005 is a standardized elicitation prior, not a measured KACS causal effect."},{"id":"healthUnknown","label":"healthUnknown","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":null,"editionQalys":null,"incomeUnknown":false,"incomePathways":[{"people":15597.339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-25,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Earlier advanced-system acquisition: once-only net household price loss. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":15597.339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":25.012506253126567,"years":1,"delayYears":13.186523328924695,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Later identical counterfactual acquisition: reversal of the same once-only consumption loss, not permanent savings. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.002901105071474809,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":1000,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Distinct avoided nonfatal episode: once-only medical/unreplaced caregiver-pay resources. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.002901105071474809,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-2500,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Otherwise-fatal rescue episode: once-only net acute household bill. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."}],"costPer10Qalys":null,"combinedEquivalentYears":null,"assumptions":"USA partial advanced-detection timing branch; not full portfolio or an identified marginal offer. Exact parameters={\"gift\":10000,\"cost\":256454,\"pWith\":0.255,\"pWithout\":0.25,\"capacity\":1,\"deaths\":31,\"effectiveness\":0.6,\"coverageCap\":0.8,\"annualCoverage\":0.05,\"early\":5,\"late\":6,\"discount\":0.03,\"lifeYears\":60,\"lifeUtility\":0.95,\"nonfatalPerDeath\":1,\"nonfatalUtility\":0.2,\"nonfatalYears\":1,\"rescueHarm\":0.05,\"households\":100000000,\"baseline\":50000,\"deviceCash\":25,\"nonfatalCash\":1000,\"rescueCash\":-2500,\"overlap\":0,\"policyHealthHarm\":0,\"independentHealthHarm\":0,\"independentCashHarm\":0,\"healthKnown\":false,\"incomeKnown\":true}. One-year resource windows have their own effective receipt delay; the discounted early-versus-late acquisition ledger converges completely. Reversed signed logs are accounting equivalents, not actual extra cash. Probability .005 is a standardized elicitation prior, not a measured KACS causal effect."},{"id":"incomeUnknown","label":"incomeUnknown","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0.05350730746770561,"editionQalys":0.05350730746770561,"incomeUnknown":true,"incomePathways":[{"people":15597.339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-25,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Earlier advanced-system acquisition: once-only net household price loss. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":15597.339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":25.012506253126567,"years":1,"delayYears":13.186523328924695,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Later identical counterfactual acquisition: reversal of the same once-only consumption loss, not permanent savings. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.002901105071474809,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":1000,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Distinct avoided nonfatal episode: once-only medical/unreplaced caregiver-pay resources. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.002901105071474809,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-2500,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Otherwise-fatal rescue episode: once-only net acute household bill. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."}],"costPer10Qalys":null,"combinedEquivalentYears":null,"assumptions":"USA partial advanced-detection timing branch; not full portfolio or an identified marginal offer. Exact parameters={\"gift\":10000,\"cost\":256454,\"pWith\":0.255,\"pWithout\":0.25,\"capacity\":1,\"deaths\":31,\"effectiveness\":0.6,\"coverageCap\":0.8,\"annualCoverage\":0.05,\"early\":5,\"late\":6,\"discount\":0.03,\"lifeYears\":60,\"lifeUtility\":0.95,\"nonfatalPerDeath\":1,\"nonfatalUtility\":0.2,\"nonfatalYears\":1,\"rescueHarm\":0.05,\"households\":100000000,\"baseline\":50000,\"deviceCash\":25,\"nonfatalCash\":1000,\"rescueCash\":-2500,\"overlap\":0,\"policyHealthHarm\":0,\"independentHealthHarm\":0,\"independentCashHarm\":0,\"healthKnown\":true,\"incomeKnown\":false}. One-year resource windows have their own effective receipt delay; the discounted early-versus-late acquisition ledger converges completely. Reversed signed logs are accounting equivalents, not actual extra cash. Probability .005 is a standardized elicitation prior, not a measured KACS causal effect."},{"id":"allUnknown","label":"allUnknown","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":null,"editionQalys":null,"incomeUnknown":true,"incomePathways":[{"people":15597.339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-25,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Earlier advanced-system acquisition: once-only net household price loss. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":15597.339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":25.012506253126567,"years":1,"delayYears":13.186523328924695,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Later identical counterfactual acquisition: reversal of the same once-only consumption loss, not permanent savings. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.002901105071474809,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":1000,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Distinct avoided nonfatal episode: once-only medical/unreplaced caregiver-pay resources. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.002901105071474809,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-2500,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Otherwise-fatal rescue episode: once-only net acute household bill. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."}],"costPer10Qalys":null,"combinedEquivalentYears":null,"assumptions":"USA partial advanced-detection timing branch; not full portfolio or an identified marginal offer. Exact parameters={\"gift\":10000,\"cost\":256454,\"pWith\":0.255,\"pWithout\":0.25,\"capacity\":1,\"deaths\":31,\"effectiveness\":0.6,\"coverageCap\":0.8,\"annualCoverage\":0.05,\"early\":5,\"late\":6,\"discount\":0.03,\"lifeYears\":60,\"lifeUtility\":0.95,\"nonfatalPerDeath\":1,\"nonfatalUtility\":0.2,\"nonfatalYears\":1,\"rescueHarm\":0.05,\"households\":100000000,\"baseline\":50000,\"deviceCash\":25,\"nonfatalCash\":1000,\"rescueCash\":-2500,\"overlap\":0,\"policyHealthHarm\":0,\"independentHealthHarm\":0,\"independentCashHarm\":0,\"healthKnown\":false,\"incomeKnown\":false}. One-year resource windows have their own effective receipt delay; the discounted early-versus-late acquisition ledger converges completely. Reversed signed logs are accounting equivalents, not actual extra cash. Probability .005 is a standardized elicitation prior, not a measured KACS causal effect."},{"id":"fullOverlap","label":"fullOverlap","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0.053102589658445075,"editionQalys":0.053102589658445075,"incomeUnknown":false,"incomePathways":[{"people":15597.339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-25,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Earlier advanced-system acquisition: once-only net household price loss. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":15597.339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":25.012506253126567,"years":1,"delayYears":13.186523328924695,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Later identical counterfactual acquisition: reversal of the same once-only consumption loss, not permanent savings. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.002901105071474809,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":1000,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Distinct avoided nonfatal episode: once-only medical/unreplaced caregiver-pay resources. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.002901105071474809,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-2500,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Otherwise-fatal rescue episode: once-only net acute household bill. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."}],"costPer10Qalys":null,"combinedEquivalentYears":-0.026168824268356074,"assumptions":"USA partial advanced-detection timing branch; not full portfolio or an identified marginal offer. Exact parameters={\"gift\":10000,\"cost\":256454,\"pWith\":0.255,\"pWithout\":0.25,\"capacity\":1,\"deaths\":31,\"effectiveness\":0.6,\"coverageCap\":0.8,\"annualCoverage\":0.05,\"early\":5,\"late\":6,\"discount\":0.03,\"lifeYears\":60,\"lifeUtility\":0.95,\"nonfatalPerDeath\":1,\"nonfatalUtility\":0.2,\"nonfatalYears\":1,\"rescueHarm\":0.05,\"households\":100000000,\"baseline\":50000,\"deviceCash\":25,\"nonfatalCash\":1000,\"rescueCash\":-2500,\"overlap\":1,\"policyHealthHarm\":0,\"independentHealthHarm\":0,\"independentCashHarm\":0,\"healthKnown\":true,\"incomeKnown\":true}. One-year resource windows have their own effective receipt delay; the discounted early-versus-late acquisition ledger converges completely. Reversed signed logs are accounting equivalents, not actual extra cash. Probability .005 is a standardized elicitation prior, not a measured KACS causal effect."},{"id":"policyHarm","label":"policyHarm","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0.05241935636754289,"editionQalys":0.05241935636754289,"incomeUnknown":false,"incomePathways":[{"people":15597.339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-25,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Earlier advanced-system acquisition: once-only net household price loss. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":15597.339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":25.012506253126567,"years":1,"delayYears":13.186523328924695,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Later identical counterfactual acquisition: reversal of the same once-only consumption loss, not permanent savings. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.002901105071474809,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":1000,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Distinct avoided nonfatal episode: once-only medical/unreplaced caregiver-pay resources. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.002901105071474809,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-2500,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Otherwise-fatal rescue episode: once-only net acute household bill. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."}],"costPer10Qalys":null,"combinedEquivalentYears":-0.026852057559258256,"assumptions":"USA partial advanced-detection timing branch; not full portfolio or an identified marginal offer. Exact parameters={\"gift\":10000,\"cost\":256454,\"pWith\":0.255,\"pWithout\":0.25,\"capacity\":1,\"deaths\":31,\"effectiveness\":0.6,\"coverageCap\":0.8,\"annualCoverage\":0.05,\"early\":5,\"late\":6,\"discount\":0.03,\"lifeYears\":60,\"lifeUtility\":0.95,\"nonfatalPerDeath\":1,\"nonfatalUtility\":0.2,\"nonfatalYears\":1,\"rescueHarm\":0.05,\"households\":100000000,\"baseline\":50000,\"deviceCash\":25,\"nonfatalCash\":1000,\"rescueCash\":-2500,\"overlap\":0,\"policyHealthHarm\":10,\"independentHealthHarm\":0,\"independentCashHarm\":0,\"healthKnown\":true,\"incomeKnown\":true}. One-year resource windows have their own effective receipt delay; the discounted early-versus-late acquisition ledger converges completely. Reversed signed logs are accounting equivalents, not actual extra cash. Probability .005 is a standardized elicitation prior, not a measured KACS causal effect."},{"id":"independentHarmZeroBranch","label":"independentHarmZeroBranch","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":-0.01,"editionQalys":-0.01,"incomeUnknown":false,"incomePathways":[{"people":1,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-100,"years":1,"delayYears":0,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Independent gift-induced burden, including when policy influence fails. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."}],"costPer10Qalys":null,"combinedEquivalentYears":-0.01100100133533654,"assumptions":"USA partial advanced-detection timing branch; not full portfolio or an identified marginal offer. Exact parameters={\"gift\":10000,\"cost\":256454,\"pWith\":0.25,\"pWithout\":0.25,\"capacity\":1,\"deaths\":31,\"effectiveness\":0.6,\"coverageCap\":0.8,\"annualCoverage\":0.05,\"early\":5,\"late\":6,\"discount\":0.03,\"lifeYears\":60,\"lifeUtility\":0.95,\"nonfatalPerDeath\":1,\"nonfatalUtility\":0.2,\"nonfatalYears\":1,\"rescueHarm\":0.05,\"households\":100000000,\"baseline\":50000,\"deviceCash\":25,\"nonfatalCash\":1000,\"rescueCash\":-2500,\"overlap\":0,\"policyHealthHarm\":0,\"independentHealthHarm\":0.01,\"independentCashHarm\":100,\"healthKnown\":true,\"incomeKnown\":true}. One-year resource windows have their own effective receipt delay; the discounted early-versus-late acquisition ledger converges completely. Reversed signed logs are accounting equivalents, not actual extra cash. Probability .005 is a standardized elicitation prior, not a measured KACS causal effect."},{"id":"negativeEpisodeCash","label":"negativeEpisodeCash","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0.05350730746770561,"editionQalys":0.05350730746770561,"incomeUnknown":false,"incomePathways":[{"people":15597.339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-25,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Earlier advanced-system acquisition: once-only net household price loss. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":15597.339093950586,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":25.012506253126567,"years":1,"delayYears":13.186523328924695,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Later identical counterfactual acquisition: reversal of the same once-only consumption loss, not permanent savings. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.002901105071474809,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-1000,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Distinct avoided nonfatal episode: once-only medical/unreplaced caregiver-pay resources. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.002901105071474809,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-2500,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Otherwise-fatal rescue episode: once-only net acute household bill. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."}],"costPer10Qalys":null,"combinedEquivalentYears":-0.025804583637554522,"assumptions":"USA partial advanced-detection timing branch; not full portfolio or an identified marginal offer. Exact parameters={\"gift\":10000,\"cost\":256454,\"pWith\":0.255,\"pWithout\":0.25,\"capacity\":1,\"deaths\":31,\"effectiveness\":0.6,\"coverageCap\":0.8,\"annualCoverage\":0.05,\"early\":5,\"late\":6,\"discount\":0.03,\"lifeYears\":60,\"lifeUtility\":0.95,\"nonfatalPerDeath\":1,\"nonfatalUtility\":0.2,\"nonfatalYears\":1,\"rescueHarm\":0.05,\"households\":100000000,\"baseline\":50000,\"deviceCash\":25,\"nonfatalCash\":-1000,\"rescueCash\":-2500,\"overlap\":0,\"policyHealthHarm\":0,\"independentHealthHarm\":0,\"independentCashHarm\":0,\"healthKnown\":true,\"incomeKnown\":true}. One-year resource windows have their own effective receipt delay; the discounted early-versus-late acquisition ledger converges completely. Reversed signed logs are accounting equivalents, not actual extra cash. Probability .005 is a standardized elicitation prior, not a measured KACS causal effect."},{"id":"threeYearGrossMean","label":"threeYearGrossMean","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0.05242656100818485,"editionQalys":0.05242656100818485,"incomeUnknown":false,"incomePathways":[{"people":15282.302329787004,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-25,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Earlier advanced-system acquisition: once-only net household price loss. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":15282.302329787004,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":25.012506253126567,"years":1,"delayYears":13.186523328924695,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Later identical counterfactual acquisition: reversal of the same once-only consumption loss, not permanent savings. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.0028425082333403827,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":1000,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Distinct avoided nonfatal episode: once-only medical/unreplaced caregiver-pay resources. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.0028425082333403827,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-2500,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Otherwise-fatal rescue episode: once-only net acute household bill. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."}],"costPer10Qalys":null,"combinedEquivalentYears":-0.02524372021362449,"assumptions":"USA partial advanced-detection timing branch; not full portfolio or an identified marginal offer. Exact parameters={\"gift\":10000,\"cost\":261740.66666666666,\"pWith\":0.255,\"pWithout\":0.25,\"capacity\":1,\"deaths\":31,\"effectiveness\":0.6,\"coverageCap\":0.8,\"annualCoverage\":0.05,\"early\":5,\"late\":6,\"discount\":0.03,\"lifeYears\":60,\"lifeUtility\":0.95,\"nonfatalPerDeath\":1,\"nonfatalUtility\":0.2,\"nonfatalYears\":1,\"rescueHarm\":0.05,\"households\":100000000,\"baseline\":50000,\"deviceCash\":25,\"nonfatalCash\":1000,\"rescueCash\":-2500,\"overlap\":0,\"policyHealthHarm\":0,\"independentHealthHarm\":0,\"independentCashHarm\":0,\"healthKnown\":true,\"incomeKnown\":true}. One-year resource windows have their own effective receipt delay; the discounted early-versus-late acquisition ledger converges completely. Reversed signed logs are accounting equivalents, not actual extra cash. Probability .005 is a standardized elicitation prior, not a measured KACS causal effect."},{"id":"threeYearFunctionalMean","label":"threeYearFunctionalMean","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0.052729890404146156,"editionQalys":0.052729890404146156,"incomeUnknown":false,"incomePathways":[{"people":15370.722616097006,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-25,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Earlier advanced-system acquisition: once-only net household price loss. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":15370.722616097006,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":25.012506253126567,"years":1,"delayYears":13.186523328924695,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Later identical counterfactual acquisition: reversal of the same once-only consumption loss, not permanent savings. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.002858954406594043,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":1000,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Distinct avoided nonfatal episode: once-only medical/unreplaced caregiver-pay resources. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."},{"people":0.002858954406594043,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-2500,"years":1,"delayYears":12.186523328924688,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["kacs-index","nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-agenda26","tc-test25","income-method"],"rationale":"Otherwise-fatal rescue episode: once-only net acute household bill. Expected exposed household-equivalents already include the direct policy contrast once; not observed people. A reversed consumption-loss log is an accounting equivalent, not a cash windfall.","counterfactual":"Same eventual acquisition and baseline vehicle/reminder purchases; actual net episode resources after insurance, tax, benefits and paid-leave offsets. No saved-life lifetime wages or repeated annual transfer."}],"costPer10Qalys":null,"combinedEquivalentYears":-0.025389775233388624,"assumptions":"USA partial advanced-detection timing branch; not full portfolio or an identified marginal offer. Exact parameters={\"gift\":10000,\"cost\":260235,\"pWith\":0.255,\"pWithout\":0.25,\"capacity\":1,\"deaths\":31,\"effectiveness\":0.6,\"coverageCap\":0.8,\"annualCoverage\":0.05,\"early\":5,\"late\":6,\"discount\":0.03,\"lifeYears\":60,\"lifeUtility\":0.95,\"nonfatalPerDeath\":1,\"nonfatalUtility\":0.2,\"nonfatalYears\":1,\"rescueHarm\":0.05,\"households\":100000000,\"baseline\":50000,\"deviceCash\":25,\"nonfatalCash\":1000,\"rescueCash\":-2500,\"overlap\":0,\"policyHealthHarm\":0,\"independentHealthHarm\":0,\"independentCashHarm\":0,\"healthKnown\":true,\"incomeKnown\":true}. One-year resource windows have their own effective receipt delay; the discounted early-versus-late acquisition ledger converges completely. Reversed signed logs are accounting equivalents, not actual extra cash. Probability .005 is a standardized elicitation prior, not a measured KACS causal effect."},{"id":"historical-alpha-central","label":"Historical initial health-only estimate","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0.10982466129395467,"editionQalys":0.10872641468101513,"assumptions":"Preserved original estimate, not current signed forecast. Historical alpha diagnostic, not beta expected value. Hot-car mortality only, all recipient reported costs. Inputs={\"C\":256454,\"Y\":5,\"D\":30,\"d\":0.8,\"r\":0.7,\"k\":0.9,\"q\":27,\"b\":0.5,\"p\":0.2,\"a\":0.2,\"rate\":0.05,\"cap\":0.8,\"L1\":3,\"L0\":6,\"T\":20,\"g\":0.99,\"h\":0}. Discounted incremental protected-risk years A=1.7247803796467673; full accelerated-adoption health H=704.1243421869962 QALYs. These are analyst scenarios, not measured charity effects."},{"id":"historical-beta-unknown","label":"Historical later review: influence unidentified","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":null,"editionQalys":null,"assumptions":"Ordinary whole-recipient gift. No defensible expected recipient-specific influence or funding response; null is not zero."}],"sensitivity":["Preferred net outcome is negative at net device cost$25; $15 gives about$16.85M/10 combined years. Neither is observed device pricing.","Same eventual device acquisition cancels undiscounted payment counts. Clinical-zero still retains costs and harms; independent harms survive zero influence.","Probability .0005/.005/.01, national cohort50M/100M, life30/60/80years and resource unknown are separate unweighted tests."],"missingInputs":["Recipient-specific gift-induced staff/work response and influence on specification/timing.","Priced net technology incidence and risk-weighted purchaser mapping; morbidity and actual net household cash effects.","Original financial re-verification, current unrestricted liquidity/capacity and full social-resource/portfolio effects."]},"sources":[{"id":"kacs-99024","title":"Kids and Cars Inc FY2024 Form990","publisher":"Kids and Cars Inc / IRS via ProPublica","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202513039349301566/IRS990","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-29"},{"id":"kacs-99023","title":"Kids and Cars Inc FY2023 Form990","publisher":"Kids and Cars Inc / IRS via ProPublica","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202420799349301032/IRS990","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-29"},{"id":"kacs-99022","title":"Kids and Cars Inc FY2022 Form990","publisher":"Kids and Cars Inc / IRS via ProPublica","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202313079349302896/IRS990","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-29"},{"id":"kacs-99024d","title":"FY2024 ScheduleD: other investments","publisher":"Kids and Cars Inc / IRS via ProPublica","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202513039349301566/IRS990ScheduleD","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-29"},{"id":"kacs-99024m","title":"FY2024 ScheduleM: noncash contributions","publisher":"Kids and Cars Inc / IRS via ProPublica","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202513039349301566/IRS990ScheduleM","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-29"},{"id":"kacs-99024o","title":"FY2024 ScheduleO: consultants and governance","publisher":"Kids and Cars Inc / IRS via ProPublica","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202513039349301566/IRS990ScheduleO","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-29"},{"id":"kacs-home","title":"Current activities and mission","publisher":"Kids and Car Safety","url":"https://www.kidsandcars.org/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"kacs-history","title":"Accomplishments and history","publisher":"Kids and Car Safety","url":"https://www.kidsandcars.org/accomplishments-and-history","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"kacs-policy","title":"Hot cars: federal legislation and technology","publisher":"Kids and Car Safety","url":"https://www.kidsandcars.org/hot-cars/hot-cars-federal-legislation-technology","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-02"},{"id":"kacs-data","title":"Hot-car incident documentation","publisher":"Kids and Car Safety","url":"https://www.kidsandcars.org/hot-cars/media-resources","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-29"},{"id":"kacs-giving","title":"Ordinary donation page and illustrative education costs","publisher":"Kids and Car Safety","url":"https://kidsandcars.networkforgood.com/projects/140012-kids-and-car-safety","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-29"},{"id":"nhtsa-agenda26","title":"2026 regulatory agenda: Rear Designated Seating Position Alert, RIN2127-AM49","publisher":"NHTSA / OIRA","url":"https://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaViewRule?pubId=202510&RIN=2127-AM49","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-02"},{"id":"nhtsa-heatstroke","title":"Prevent hot-car deaths: current burden and prevention","publisher":"NHTSA","url":"https://www.nhtsa.gov/campaign/heatstroke","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-02"},{"id":"nhtsa-door-test","title":"Testing rear-door-logic based unattended child reminder systems, DOT HS813669","publisher":"Prasad and Snyder / NHTSA","url":"https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/79012/dot_79012_DS1.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-02"},{"id":"chop-tech25","title":"New research evaluates technological solutions to prevent pediatric vehicular heatstroke","publisher":"Jalaj Maheshwari / Children's Hospital of Philadelphia CIRP","url":"https://injury.research.chop.edu/blog/posts/new-research-evaluates-technological-solutions-prevent-pediatric-vehicular-heatstroke","published":"2025-07-23","retrieved":"2026-10-02"},{"id":"tc-test25","title":"Technical report: testing occupant monitoring systems","publisher":"Transport Canada / National Research Council Canada","url":"https://tc.canada.ca/en/road-transportation/dangers-hot-vehicles-children/technical-report-testing-occupant-monitoring-systems","published":"2025-09-04","retrieved":"2026-10-02"},{"id":"industry-reminders","title":"2024 industry heatstroke report announcement","publisher":"Alliance for Automotive Innovation","url":"https://www.autosinnovate.org/posts/press-release/2024-industry-heatstroke-report","published":"2024-11-04","retrieved":"2026-10-02"},{"id":"kacs-partners25","title":"National Heatstroke Prevention Day partner event","publisher":"Safe Kids Worldwide","url":"https://www.safekids.org/national-heatstroke-prevention-day-press-release","published":"2025-05-01","retrieved":"2026-09-29"},{"id":"kacs-index","title":"Current IRS-derived filing index","publisher":"IRS via ProPublica","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/200024715","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-02"},{"id":"kacs-press26","title":"2026 press archive and legacy campaign","publisher":"Kids and Car Safety","url":"https://www.kidsandcars.org/media/press-releases","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-02"},{"id":"kacs-count26","title":"2026 child hot-car deaths","publisher":"Kids and Car Safety","url":"https://www.kidsandcars.org/2026-child-hot-car-deaths","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-29"},{"id":"nhs-current","title":"PVH tally updated September 28, 2026","publisher":"NoHeatstroke.org / Jan Null","url":"https://www.noheatstroke.org/","published":"2026-09-28","retrieved":"2026-09-29"},{"id":"nhs-monthly","title":"Older monthly statistics with discrepancies","publisher":"NoHeatstroke.org / Jan Null","url":"https://www.noheatstroke.org/monthly-statistics","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-29"},{"id":"toyota-radar","title":"2025 US Sienna radar reminder specification","publisher":"Toyota","url":"https://pressroom.toyota.com/2025-toyota-sienna-introduces-advanced-rear-seat-reminder-system-to-help-identify-rear-seat-occupants-via-in-cabin-millimeter-wave-radar/","published":"2024-09-17","retrieved":"2026-10-02"},{"id":"fr-search","title":"RIN search; only 2023 result returned on review date","publisher":"Office of the Federal Register","url":"https://www.federalregister.gov/api/v1/documents.json?conditions%5Bterm%5D=2127-AM49&per_page=20","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-29"},{"id":"chop-primary","title":"Preventing real-world pediatric vehicular heatstroke events: primary author-institution abstract","publisher":"Maheshwari et al / Drexel","url":"https://researchdiscovery.drexel.edu/esploro/outputs/journalArticle/Preventing-Real-World-Pediatric-Vehicular-Heatstroke-Events/991022197403204721","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-02"},{"id":"income-method","title":"Cost-effectiveness: income and health reference values","publisher":"Coefficient Giving","url":"https://coefficientgiving.org/research/cost-effectiveness/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-30"}]}