{"edition":"usa","organization":"Kids and Car Safety","organizationId":"org:kids-and-car-safety","boundaryVersion":"USA-50-states-DC-v1","updated":"2026-09-13","model":{"version":"usa-kacs-adoption-acceleration-alpha-v1","costScope":"All reported ordinary recipient costs C=$256,454/year, held constant in real FY2024 dollars for Y=5years. Includes administration/fundraising; direct netted expenses checked. Scenario G=$10,000 is disclosure normalization only. Unpriced volunteer time and hardware/government implementation costs are not claimed included in reported cash expenses; those are separate resource/capacity uncertainties.","geographicAttribution":"National US prevention pathway with g=.99 subjective allowance for exact 50states+DC boundary and exposure coverage. State education remains charged even when not modeled. No pet QALYs or foreign beneficiaries are credited. allPopulationQalys covers this quantified pathway before g, not complete worldwide organizational impact.","formula":"F1(t)=min(cap,rate*max(0,t-L1+1)); F0(t)=min(cap,rate*max(0,t-L0+1)); A=sum(t=1..T)[F1(t)-F0(t)]/(1.03^t). H=D*d*r*k*q*A. Q_USA(G)=G/(Y*C)*b*(p*a*H-h)*g. Central: C256454,Y5,D30,d.8,r.7,k.9,q27,b.5,p.2,a.2,rate.05,cap.8,L1=3,L0=6,T20,g.99,h0. Price10*G/Q_USA. Adoption paths are risk-weighted fractions of otherwise-fatal exposures receiving stronger protection, not observed shares of cars sold.","counterfactual":"Existing government campaigns, simple reminders, manufacturer innovation, other charities and eventual stronger detection continue. Central compares the same adoption ramp beginning in future year3 rather than6; it credits temporary earlier coverage, not permanent prevention of all baseline deaths. D30 incorporates a modest decline from historical37 deaths, close to recent31, rather than projecting an immutable historic rate.","attribution":"p=.2 is a subjective coalition-induced chance of the specified three-year acceleration; a=.2 is KACS’s share of that causal increment. Effective contribution .04 is not the chance any regulation happens. b=.5 then discounts effort that reserves, government/private grants, or other donors would fund anyway. All portfolio costs are charged, so no second hot-car budget share is applied.","uncertainty":"Working expected value, not an experimentally estimated charity return or a median realized policy outcome. Adoption and causal attribution dominate; broad scenarios include no acceleration, no influence, funding substitution, and adverse net health elsewhere. h is not discounted by policy success, preserving downside even when p=0.","nativeOutcomes":"Risk-weighted vehicle-years with stronger child detection; successful detection; functioning alert; timely rescue; deaths prevented. Theoretical scenario coverage, education materials, and historical laws are not treated as measured fatality reductions.","inputs":[{"name":"C","value":256454,"unit":"USD/year all recipient reported expenses","basis":"observed","rationale":"FY2024 Form990 total functional expenses; direct cost lines require no addback.","sourceIds":["kacs-99024"]},{"name":"Y","value":5,"unit":"years of recipient expenditure","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite sustained advocacy effort producing one adoption acceleration; not repeatedly credited every year.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"historical-deaths","value":37,"unit":"reported USA deaths/year","basis":"observed","rationale":"NHTSA report historical mean; surveillance quantity rather than ascertainment-complete burden.","sourceIds":["nhtsa-door-test"]},{"name":"deaths-2025","value":31,"unit":"reported USA deaths","basis":"observed","rationale":"Latest completed-year count reported by NHTSA.","sourceIds":["nhtsa-heatstroke"]},{"name":"D","value":30,"unit":"future baseline deaths/year","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Near recent31 and below historical37; allows existing prevention progress.15–40 tested; weather and ascertainment uncertain.","sourceIds":["nhtsa-heatstroke","nhtsa-door-test"]},{"name":"d","value":0.8,"unit":"probability of detection in relevant otherwise-fatal exposure","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Mechanistic working value, not measured field sensitivity; research shows substantial scenario heterogeneity.","sourceIds":["chop-tech25","tc-test25"]},{"name":"r","value":0.7,"unit":"timely effective rescue conditional on detection and operating system","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Allows unavailable/ignoring caregiver, failed escalation, and deliberate leaving; a warning is not a rescue.","sourceIds":["chop-tech25"]},{"name":"k","value":0.9,"unit":"fraction reliably operating and not disabled","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Allows sensor failure, nuisance-alert disablement and real-world degradation; technical accuracy alone is insufficient.","sourceIds":["nhtsa-door-test","tc-test25"]},{"name":"q","value":27,"unit":"discounted QALYs per averted child death at event date","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Approximately a long 75-year future with utility around 0.9 and 3% annual discount, rounded; not a patient-specific life table. 20–30 QALYs tested. Nonfatal morbidity and family health are omitted.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"rate","value":0.05,"unit":"additional risk-weighted protection fraction/year after adoption starts","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Slow replacement and unequal access to newer vehicles; not an observed market-penetration statistic.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"cap","value":0.8,"unit":"maximum risk-weighted population share covered","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Leaves20% beyond this diffusion pathway because of older vehicles, noncovered settings or access constraints; distinct from detection efficacy.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"L1","value":3,"unit":"future year of first stronger protection under accelerated path","basis":"judgment","rationale":"No asserted legal compliance date. Forward-looking model despite current prerule status.","sourceIds":["nhtsa-agenda26"]},{"name":"L0","value":6,"unit":"future year of first comparable protection absent campaign acceleration","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Counterfactual adoption still happens through industry and government. A3-year difference is a subjective opportunity, not a measured delay.","sourceIds":["industry-reminders","nhtsa-agenda26"]},{"name":"T","value":20,"unit":"years of adoption-difference accounting","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite horizon. At central year20 adoption differs by5percentagepoints; later residual benefit omitted.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"p","value":0.2,"unit":"incremental coalition probability of the modeled acceleration","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Subjective policy/implementation influence, not unconditional adoption probability;0–.5 scenarios.","sourceIds":["kacs-policy","nhtsa-agenda26"]},{"name":"a","value":0.2,"unit":"KACS share of coalition-induced acceleration probability","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Focused longstanding group but other advocates, engineers, regulators and manufacturers dominate much of delivery; tested.05–.3.","sourceIds":["kacs-policy","kacs-partners25"]},{"name":"b","value":0.5,"unit":"net additional effort per dollar over five years","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Allows reserves, grant and donor substitution, and unpriced volunteer capacity. No verified marginal operating plan.","sourceIds":["kacs-99024","kacs-99024d","kacs-99024o"]},{"name":"h","value":0,"unit":"other-portfolio net QALYs lost per five-year full-cost effort","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Central zero net credit for other work; adverse cases retain losses even if no acceleration occurs.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"g","value":0.99,"unit":"fraction of credited health in50states+DC","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Near-national pathway; small boundary allowance, not a measured spending share.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"central-adoption-path","value":[{"t":1,"with":0,"without":0,"discountedDifference":0},{"t":2,"with":0,"without":0,"discountedDifference":0},{"t":3,"with":0.05,"without":0,"discountedDifference":0.04575708296765798},{"t":4,"with":0.1,"without":0,"discountedDifference":0.08884870479156888},{"t":5,"with":0.15000000000000002,"without":0,"discountedDifference":0.1293913176576246},{"t":6,"with":0.2,"without":0.05,"discountedDifference":0.12562263850254815},{"t":7,"with":0.25,"without":0.1,"discountedDifference":0.12196372670150303},{"t":8,"with":0.30000000000000004,"without":0.15000000000000002,"discountedDifference":0.11841138514709035},{"t":9,"with":0.35000000000000003,"without":0.2,"discountedDifference":0.11496250985154402},{"t":10,"with":0.4,"without":0.25,"discountedDifference":0.11161408723450876},{"t":11,"with":0.45,"without":0.30000000000000004,"discountedDifference":0.10836319148981428},{"t":12,"with":0.5,"without":0.35000000000000003,"discountedDifference":0.1052069820289459},{"t":13,"with":0.55,"without":0.4,"discountedDifference":0.10214270099897664},{"t":14,"with":0.6000000000000001,"without":0.45,"discountedDifference":0.09916767087279288},{"t":15,"with":0.65,"without":0.5,"discountedDifference":0.09627929210950763},{"t":16,"with":0.7000000000000001,"without":0.55,"discountedDifference":0.0934750408830171},{"t":17,"with":0.75,"without":0.6000000000000001,"discountedDifference":0.09075246687671557},{"t":18,"with":0.8,"without":0.65,"discountedDifference":0.08810919114244235},{"t":19,"with":0.8,"without":0.7000000000000001,"discountedDifference":0.05702860268119245},{"t":20,"with":0.8,"without":0.75,"discountedDifference":0.02768378770931675}],"unit":"year, protected-risk fraction with/without, discounted difference","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit inspectable annual path; A=1.7247803796467673 discounted protected-risk years.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"unpriced-resource-inputs","value":null,"unit":"USD of volunteer time and accelerated implementation","basis":"unknown","rationale":"Reported cash costs do not value all donated labor or manufacturers’ incremental engineering/hardware; required for social-cost rather than donor-cost estimate.","sourceIds":["kacs-99024","tc-test25"]}],"scenarios":[{"id":"central","label":"Subjective three-year acceleration expected value","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0.10982466129395467,"editionQalys":0.10872641468101513,"assumptions":"Hot-car mortality only, all recipient reported costs. Inputs={\"C\":256454,\"Y\":5,\"D\":30,\"d\":0.8,\"r\":0.7,\"k\":0.9,\"q\":27,\"b\":0.5,\"p\":0.2,\"a\":0.2,\"rate\":0.05,\"cap\":0.8,\"L1\":3,\"L0\":6,\"T\":20,\"g\":0.99,\"h\":0}. Discounted incremental protected-risk years A=1.7247803796467673; full accelerated-adoption health H=704.1243421869962 QALYs. These are analyst scenarios, not measured charity effects."},{"id":"favorable","label":"Stronger and faster marginal influence","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":2.6465308463321784,"editionQalys":2.6200655378688564,"assumptions":"Five-year acceleration, higher reach and responsiveness; optimistic scenario not a confidence bound. Inputs={\"C\":256454,\"Y\":5,\"D\":40,\"d\":0.9,\"r\":0.9,\"k\":0.95,\"q\":30,\"b\":0.8,\"p\":0.5,\"a\":0.3,\"rate\":0.07,\"cap\":0.8,\"L1\":2,\"L0\":7,\"T\":20,\"g\":0.99,\"h\":0}. Discounted incremental protected-risk years A=3.0625650750183766; full accelerated-adoption health H=2827.972590271969 QALYs. These are analyst scenarios, not measured charity effects."},{"id":"poor","label":"Little influence with weak coverage","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0.000020562275793075274,"editionQalys":0.00002035665303514452,"assumptions":"Only one-year acceleration, lower rescue and donor additionality. Inputs={\"C\":256454,\"Y\":5,\"D\":15,\"d\":0.5,\"r\":0.3,\"k\":0.7,\"q\":20,\"b\":0.1,\"p\":0.05,\"a\":0.05,\"rate\":0.03,\"cap\":0.5,\"L1\":5,\"L0\":6,\"T\":20,\"g\":0.99,\"h\":0}. Discounted incremental protected-risk years A=0.33481129372935403; full accelerated-adoption health H=10.546555752474651 QALYs. These are analyst scenarios, not measured charity effects."},{"id":"one-year","label":"Only one-year acceleration","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0.037695487775973514,"editionQalys":0.037318532898213776,"assumptions":"Keeps all central inputs except counterfactual arrives sooner. Inputs={\"C\":256454,\"Y\":5,\"D\":30,\"d\":0.8,\"r\":0.7,\"k\":0.9,\"q\":27,\"b\":0.5,\"p\":0.2,\"a\":0.2,\"rate\":0.05,\"cap\":0.8,\"L1\":3,\"L0\":4,\"T\":20,\"g\":0.99,\"h\":0}. Discounted incremental protected-risk years A=0.5920021691957862; full accelerated-adoption health H=241.67896555248774 QALYs. These are analyst scenarios, not measured charity effects."},{"id":"low-additionality","label":"Ten percent additional effort","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0.021964932258790933,"editionQalys":0.021745282936203023,"assumptions":"Most support replaces reserves or other funding. Inputs={\"C\":256454,\"Y\":5,\"D\":30,\"d\":0.8,\"r\":0.7,\"k\":0.9,\"q\":27,\"b\":0.1,\"p\":0.2,\"a\":0.2,\"rate\":0.05,\"cap\":0.8,\"L1\":3,\"L0\":6,\"T\":20,\"g\":0.99,\"h\":0}. Discounted incremental protected-risk years A=1.7247803796467673; full accelerated-adoption health H=704.1243421869962 QALYs. These are analyst scenarios, not measured charity effects."},{"id":"no-acceleration","label":"Same adoption with or without effort","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"assumptions":"No technology benefit even if policy advocacy is active. Inputs={\"C\":256454,\"Y\":5,\"D\":30,\"d\":0.8,\"r\":0.7,\"k\":0.9,\"q\":27,\"b\":0.5,\"p\":0.2,\"a\":0.2,\"rate\":0.05,\"cap\":0.8,\"L1\":3,\"L0\":3,\"T\":20,\"g\":0.99,\"h\":0}. Discounted incremental protected-risk years A=0; full accelerated-adoption health H=0 QALYs. These are analyst scenarios, not measured charity effects."},{"id":"no-influence","label":"No KACS marginal policy contribution","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"assumptions":"Other actors deliver identical acceleration. Inputs={\"C\":256454,\"Y\":5,\"D\":30,\"d\":0.8,\"r\":0.7,\"k\":0.9,\"q\":27,\"b\":0.5,\"p\":0.2,\"a\":0,\"rate\":0.05,\"cap\":0.8,\"L1\":3,\"L0\":6,\"T\":20,\"g\":0.99,\"h\":0}. Discounted incremental protected-risk years A=1.7247803796467673; full accelerated-adoption health H=704.1243421869962 QALYs. These are analyst scenarios, not measured charity effects."},{"id":"downside","label":"No influence plus1QALY portfolio harm","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":-0.003899334773487643,"editionQalys":-0.003860341425752766,"assumptions":"Illustrative harm from risk compensation, distraction, privacy-related health effects or other portfolio actions; not an observed estimate. Inputs={\"C\":256454,\"Y\":5,\"D\":30,\"d\":0.8,\"r\":0.7,\"k\":0.9,\"q\":27,\"b\":0.5,\"p\":0.2,\"a\":0,\"rate\":0.05,\"cap\":0.8,\"L1\":3,\"L0\":6,\"T\":20,\"g\":0.99,\"h\":1}. Discounted incremental protected-risk years A=1.7247803796467673; full accelerated-adoption health H=704.1243421869962 QALYs. These are analyst scenarios, not measured charity effects."},{"id":"short-horizon","label":"Only ten years of incremental coverage","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0.054541825031098855,"editionQalys":0.05399640678078787,"assumptions":"Tests long-horizon dependence. Inputs={\"C\":256454,\"Y\":5,\"D\":30,\"d\":0.8,\"r\":0.7,\"k\":0.9,\"q\":27,\"b\":0.5,\"p\":0.2,\"a\":0.2,\"rate\":0.05,\"cap\":0.8,\"L1\":3,\"L0\":6,\"T\":10,\"g\":0.99,\"h\":0}. Discounted incremental protected-risk years A=0.8565714528540457; full accelerated-adoption health H=349.6867299131356 QALYs. These are analyst scenarios, not measured charity effects."}],"sensitivity":["Central A=1.72478038 and H=704.124342 QALYs before policy/funding credit. Effective p*a=.04 and b=.5 give13.941662 USAQALYs per five-year expense-equivalent cost $1,282,270.","One-year rather than three-year acceleration increases price to approximately $2.68M per10USAQALYs. b=.1 increases the central price fivefold. Matching counterfactual adoption removes modeled benefit.","To meet $1M/10, five-year effort requires12.8227 netUSAQALYs; at 27 Q/death this is.474915 discounted expected deaths. The $100k/10 threshold requires128.227 QALYs, or4.74915 deaths.","At central clinical/adoption inputs and b=.5,g=.99,h0, effective p*a must be at least.03679 for $1M/10 and.36790 for $100k/10. Central.04 narrowly clears the former and is far below the latter.","Central net other-portfolio harm above p*a*H=28.164974 QALYs per five-year effort erases estimated benefit before b/g. Zero-other-health is not a guaranteed lower bound.","A simple reminder is not direct detection. Treating industry’s2025 reminder commitment as universal effective protection, or treating statutory rulemaking deadlines as actual deployment, invalidates this model.","Hardware/public costs cannot be called zero. For an incremental social-cost calculation, compare cost and benefit of earlier/stronger adoption against later adoption, including other uses of sensors; do not debit every future detector while crediting only a brief acceleration."],"missingInputs":["Causal timing or specification changes due to KACS rather than other coalition members, regulators or manufacturers.","Current marginal expenditure/capacity plan, donor and public-grant substitution, restrictions and availability of cryptocurrency holdings.","Risk-weighted penetration of direct detection, reliability/disablement, caregiver response, and observed fatality/nonfatal health effects.","Current discounted marginal hardware/public-resource costs and net non-hot-car portfolio health effects."]},"sources":[{"id":"kacs-99024","title":"Kids and Cars Inc FY2024 Form990","publisher":"Kids and Cars Inc / IRS via ProPublica","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202513039349301566/IRS990","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"kacs-99023","title":"Kids and Cars Inc FY2023 Form990","publisher":"Kids and Cars Inc / IRS via ProPublica","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202420799349301032/IRS990","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"kacs-99022","title":"Kids and Cars Inc FY2022 Form990","publisher":"Kids and Cars Inc / IRS via ProPublica","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202313079349302896/IRS990","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"kacs-99024d","title":"FY2024 ScheduleD: other investments","publisher":"Kids and Cars Inc / IRS via ProPublica","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202513039349301566/IRS990ScheduleD","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"kacs-99024m","title":"FY2024 ScheduleM: noncash contributions","publisher":"Kids and Cars Inc / IRS via ProPublica","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202513039349301566/IRS990ScheduleM","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"kacs-99024o","title":"FY2024 ScheduleO: consultants and governance","publisher":"Kids and Cars Inc / IRS via ProPublica","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202513039349301566/IRS990ScheduleO","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"kacs-home","title":"Current activities and mission","publisher":"Kids and Car Safety","url":"https://www.kidsandcars.org/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"kacs-history","title":"Accomplishments and history","publisher":"Kids and Car Safety","url":"https://www.kidsandcars.org/accomplishments-and-history","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"kacs-policy","title":"Hot cars: federal legislation and technology","publisher":"Kids and Car Safety","url":"https://www.kidsandcars.org/hot-cars/hot-cars-federal-legislation-technology","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"kacs-data","title":"Hot-car incident documentation","publisher":"Kids and Car Safety","url":"https://www.kidsandcars.org/hot-cars/media-resources","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"kacs-giving","title":"Ordinary donation page and illustrative education costs","publisher":"Kids and Car Safety","url":"https://kidsandcars.networkforgood.com/projects/140012-kids-and-car-safety","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"nhtsa-agenda26","title":"2026 regulatory agenda: Rear Designated Seating Position Alert, RIN2127-AM49","publisher":"NHTSA / OIRA","url":"https://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaViewRule?pubId=202510&RIN=2127-AM49","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"nhtsa-heatstroke","title":"Prevent hot-car deaths: current burden and prevention","publisher":"NHTSA","url":"https://www.nhtsa.gov/campaign/heatstroke","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"nhtsa-door-test","title":"Testing rear-door-logic based unattended child reminder systems, DOT HS813669","publisher":"Prasad and Snyder / NHTSA","url":"https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/79012/dot_79012_DS1.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"chop-tech25","title":"New research evaluates technological solutions to prevent pediatric vehicular heatstroke","publisher":"Jalaj Maheshwari / Children's Hospital of Philadelphia CIRP","url":"https://injury.research.chop.edu/blog/posts/new-research-evaluates-technological-solutions-prevent-pediatric-vehicular-heatstroke","published":"2025-07-23","retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"tc-test25","title":"Technical report: testing occupant monitoring systems","publisher":"Transport Canada / National Research Council Canada","url":"https://tc.canada.ca/en/road-transportation/dangers-hot-vehicles-children/technical-report-testing-occupant-monitoring-systems","published":"2025-09-04","retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"industry-reminders","title":"2024 industry heatstroke report announcement","publisher":"Alliance for Automotive Innovation","url":"https://www.autosinnovate.org/posts/press-release/2024-industry-heatstroke-report","published":"2024-11-04","retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"kacs-partners25","title":"National Heatstroke Prevention Day partner event","publisher":"Safe Kids Worldwide","url":"https://www.safekids.org/national-heatstroke-prevention-day-press-release","published":"2025-05-01","retrieved":"2026-09-13"}]}