{"edition":"usa","organization":"Institute for Safer Trucking","organizationId":"ein:84-4943816","boundaryVersion":"USA-50-states-DC-v1","updated":"2026-09-13","model":{"version":"usa-ist-alpha-1","costScope":"All recipient program, management and fundraising expenses; five-year constant-FY2024 cost cohort. Only prospective AEB mortality health is quantified. Not restricted AEB efficiency, not total social cost.","geographicAttribution":"Domestic heavy-vehicle crash prevention. Central 99% of modeled health is assigned to residents of 50 states plus DC, allowing 1% nonresident road users. This is a judgment, not a measured residence share; foreign/territorial policy effects excluded.","formula":"Fj(t)=min(cap, rate*max(0,t-Lj+1)); A=sum(t=1..T)[F1(t)-F0(t)]/(1.03^t). H=D*r*q*A. Q_all=b*(p*a*H-h); Q_USA=g*Q_all. Cost=C*Y; price=10*Cost/Q_USA when positive. For normalized support G, multiply both cohort cost and Q by G/(C*Y); no linear scaling claim beyond small marginal support.","counterfactual":"Public agencies, manufacturers and other advocates continue. Both deployment paths ultimately converge; only acceleration is counted. D already removes pre-NPRM voluntary adoption; r allows subsequent erosion and transport. Existing donor/reserve/public substitution is represented by b.","attribution":"Conditional IST coalition contribution a=10%, separate from coalition-enabled acceleration probability p=15%; neither is observed. Staff experience and public engagement support a nonzero expectation but cannot identify its magnitude. Do not add this national estimate to overlapping charity or state estimates.","uncertainty":"Subjective expected-value alpha, not endorsement or observed impact. Central path and p/a/b can all fail; zero or net harm is possible. Scenario bounds do not bound every future. Quantified mortality-only pathway with unpriced other portfolio health is not a proven lower bound.","nativeOutcomes":"Reports, survivor resources and advocacy engagements are observed service categories, not health units. Model bridge uses residual risk-weighted fleet deployment, additional crash fatalities prevented, then discounted QALYs; no policy-win-to-QALY shortcut.","inputs":[{"name":"C","value":365248,"unit":"USD / recipient year","basis":"observed","rationale":"FY2024 total functional expenses; no separately netted direct-event, rental, gaming or inventory costs reported. All programs and overhead charged.","sourceIds":["ist-irs24"]},{"name":"Y","value":5,"unit":"recipient years","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Five-year policy-support cohort priced at constant FY2024 annual scale; not a restricted AEB budget.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"D","value":106,"unit":"annual fatalities prevented at completed AEB deployment","basis":"observed","rationale":"NHTSA modeled AEB component only, not 155 AEB-plus-ESC deaths. Already adjusts pre-proposal voluntary uptake and dark/weather performance; forecast, not measured deaths.","sourceIds":["ist-aeb-rule"]},{"name":"r","value":0.5,"unit":"remaining opportunity and transport multiplier","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Halve the 2023 AEB opportunity for subsequent voluntary uptake, narrower eventual rule, real-world transport and execution. Does not reapply all historical uptake already removed from D.","sourceIds":["ist-aeb-rule","ist-agenda"]},{"name":"q","value":20,"unit":"discounted QALYs per averted death","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Rounded mixed-age adult road-user expectation; approximately decades of future survival adjusted for quality and 3% discounting at time of death. Range 10–25; not the regulator's monetary fatal-equivalent metric.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"L1","value":5,"unit":"first deployment year with successful acceleration","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Accounts for regulatory finalization plus new-vehicle compliance lead time; not a claim of a currently effective mandate.","sourceIds":["ist-agenda","ist-aeb-rule"]},{"name":"L0","value":7,"unit":"first deployment year absent accelerated coalition effort","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Same eventual adoption but two years later; public agencies, manufacturers and other advocates continue in the counterfactual.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"rate","value":0.07,"unit":"fraction of residual opportunity deployed / year","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Risk-weighted fleet replacement approximation; slower than immediate installation. Not observed current vehicle penetration.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"cap","value":1,"unit":"maximum residual-opportunity coverage","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Coverage is of the remaining D*r opportunity, not all trucks.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"T","value":25,"unit":"future years","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Central deployment paths converge before year 25. The poor scenario converges in years 32–33, so its 25-year truncation omits later positive acceleration benefit; it is not a complete-duration lower bound.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"discount","value":0.03,"unit":"annual benefit discount rate","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Discount event-year benefits; q is separately discounted from event onward, not double discounting the same interval.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"p","value":0.15,"unit":"probability of acceleration due to incremental coalition work","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Fifteen percent over five years recognizes pending statutory process and adverse policy climate. Not probability any rule ever passes. This is a subjective expected-value estimate, not identified causal likelihood.","sourceIds":["ist-agenda","ist-speed-withdrawal"]},{"name":"a","value":0.1,"unit":"IST contribution conditional on coalition-enabled acceleration","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Ten percent recognizes experienced staff, survivor engagement and stated participation while reserving 90% for agencies, manufacturers and other advocates. No historical rule credited wholesale.","sourceIds":["ist-team","ist-statement","ist-partners"]},{"name":"b","value":0.5,"unit":"marginal support additionality","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Half allows reserves, donor substitution and staff capacity; current public evidence does not identify a funded-versus-unfunded workplan.","sourceIds":["ist-irs24"]},{"name":"g","value":0.99,"unit":"share of modeled road-user QALYs accruing to 50-state/DC residents","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Domestic crash mechanism, with 1% allowance for nonresident road users. Not measured residence; test .95–1. No territorial or foreign regulatory effects credited.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"h","value":0,"unit":"other net health harm over five-year cohort, before b and g","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Other portfolio branches and technology-induced harm set net zero centrally; not proven zero or a lower bound. Negative outcomes included in sensitivity.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"deploymentPaths","value":[{"year":1,"with":0,"without":0},{"year":2,"with":0,"without":0},{"year":3,"with":0,"without":0},{"year":4,"with":0,"without":0},{"year":5,"with":0.07,"without":0},{"year":6,"with":0.14,"without":0},{"year":7,"with":0.21000000000000002,"without":0.07},{"year":8,"with":0.28,"without":0.14},{"year":9,"with":0.35000000000000003,"without":0.21000000000000002},{"year":10,"with":0.42000000000000004,"without":0.28},{"year":11,"with":0.49000000000000005,"without":0.35000000000000003},{"year":12,"with":0.56,"without":0.42000000000000004},{"year":13,"with":0.6300000000000001,"without":0.49000000000000005},{"year":14,"with":0.7000000000000001,"without":0.56},{"year":15,"with":0.77,"without":0.6300000000000001},{"year":16,"with":0.8400000000000001,"without":0.7000000000000001},{"year":17,"with":0.9100000000000001,"without":0.77},{"year":18,"with":0.9800000000000001,"without":0.8400000000000001},{"year":19,"with":1,"without":0.9100000000000001},{"year":20,"with":1,"without":0.9800000000000001},{"year":21,"with":1,"without":1},{"year":22,"with":1,"without":1},{"year":23,"with":1,"without":1},{"year":24,"with":1,"without":1},{"year":25,"with":1,"without":1}],"unit":"annual risk-weighted coverage fractions","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Inspectable central paths, F1/F0. Multiplication by D*r yields averted-death opportunity; neither advocacy contacts nor report downloads enter health arithmetic.","sourceIds":[]}],"scenarios":[{"id":"central","label":"Subjective expected value: two-year acceleration","costUSD":1826240,"allPopulationQalys":11.18656184369774,"editionQalys":11.074696225260762,"assumptions":"Parameters {\"C\":365248,\"Y\":5,\"D\":106,\"r\":0.5,\"q\":20,\"b\":0.5,\"p\":0.15,\"a\":0.1,\"g\":0.99,\"L1\":5,\"L0\":7,\"rate\":0.07,\"cap\":1,\"T\":25,\"h\":0}; discounted deployment difference A=1.4071146973204707."},{"id":"favorable","label":"Larger, earlier coalition effect","costUSD":1826240,"allPopulationQalys":417.6784098254491,"editionQalys":413.5016257271946,"assumptions":"Parameters {\"C\":365248,\"Y\":5,\"D\":106,\"r\":0.8,\"q\":25,\"b\":0.8,\"p\":0.4,\"a\":0.2,\"g\":0.99,\"L1\":3,\"L0\":7,\"rate\":0.1,\"cap\":1,\"T\":25,\"h\":0}; discounted deployment difference A=3.0784080912842637."},{"id":"poor","label":"Small marginal role and weak residual opportunity","costUSD":1826240,"allPopulationQalys":0.005689841577705531,"editionQalys":0.0056329431619284755,"assumptions":"Parameters {\"C\":365248,\"Y\":5,\"D\":106,\"r\":0.2,\"q\":10,\"b\":0.1,\"p\":0.03,\"a\":0.02,\"g\":0.99,\"L1\":8,\"L0\":9,\"rate\":0.04,\"cap\":1,\"T\":25,\"h\":0}; discounted deployment difference A=0.44731458944225877."},{"id":"one-year","label":"Only one-year acceleration","costUSD":1826240,"allPopulationQalys":5.675940245817083,"editionQalys":5.619180843358912,"assumptions":"Parameters {\"C\":365248,\"Y\":5,\"D\":106,\"r\":0.5,\"q\":20,\"b\":0.5,\"p\":0.15,\"a\":0.1,\"g\":0.99,\"L1\":5,\"L0\":6,\"rate\":0.07,\"cap\":1,\"T\":25,\"h\":0}; discounted deployment difference A=0.7139547479015199."},{"id":"low-additionality","label":"Only 10% funding additionality","costUSD":1826240,"allPopulationQalys":2.237312368739548,"editionQalys":2.2149392450521526,"assumptions":"Parameters {\"C\":365248,\"Y\":5,\"D\":106,\"r\":0.5,\"q\":20,\"b\":0.1,\"p\":0.15,\"a\":0.1,\"g\":0.99,\"L1\":5,\"L0\":7,\"rate\":0.07,\"cap\":1,\"T\":25,\"h\":0}; discounted deployment difference A=1.4071146973204707."},{"id":"no-acceleration","label":"Deployment unchanged","costUSD":1826240,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"assumptions":"Parameters {\"C\":365248,\"Y\":5,\"D\":106,\"r\":0.5,\"q\":20,\"b\":0.5,\"p\":0.15,\"a\":0.1,\"g\":0.99,\"L1\":5,\"L0\":5,\"rate\":0.07,\"cap\":1,\"T\":25,\"h\":0}; discounted deployment difference A=0."},{"id":"adverse","label":"No policy benefit plus one QALY net harm","costUSD":1826240,"allPopulationQalys":-0.5,"editionQalys":-0.495,"assumptions":"Parameters {\"C\":365248,\"Y\":5,\"D\":106,\"r\":0.5,\"q\":20,\"b\":0.5,\"p\":0,\"a\":0.1,\"g\":0.99,\"L1\":5,\"L0\":7,\"rate\":0.07,\"cap\":1,\"T\":25,\"h\":1}; discounted deployment difference A=1.4071146973204707."},{"id":"other-harm","label":"Ten QALYs of other net harm","costUSD":1826240,"allPopulationQalys":6.18656184369774,"editionQalys":6.124696225260763,"assumptions":"Parameters {\"C\":365248,\"Y\":5,\"D\":106,\"r\":0.5,\"q\":20,\"b\":0.5,\"p\":0.15,\"a\":0.1,\"g\":0.99,\"L1\":5,\"L0\":7,\"rate\":0.07,\"cap\":1,\"T\":25,\"h\":10}; discounted deployment difference A=1.4071146973204707."}],"sensitivity":["Central A=1.4071146973 discounted residual-opportunity years and H=1491.5415792 QALYs before policy attribution and funding additionality.","At other central inputs, p*a must exceed 0.0247353 to beat $1 million per 10 USA QALYs, or 0.2473531 to beat $100,000. Central p*a=0.015.","Any omitted net harm exceeding 22.3731 QALYs over the five-year cohort erases central positive health before b and g. Harm is not discounted by p*a.","Halving q or r doubles the price. Reducing b from .5 to .1 raises it fivefold. A one-year lead is tested directly; no lead means zero.","Changing residence share from .99 to .95 raises price by .99/.95; this is small beside uncertain policy attribution. Excluded nonfatal benefits could improve health yield, but cannot repair zero policy additionality."],"missingInputs":["Current recipient budget, funded-versus-unfunded projects, staffing capacity and donor restrictions; no verified marginal workplan.","Evidence tying IST-specific work to a change in adoption timing or performance standard, with other advocates' and agency contributions separated.","Current voluntary AEB uptake by vehicle class, risk-weighted fleet turnover, future final-rule coverage/compliance and age-specific fatalities.","Social opportunity cost and unintended health effects of accelerated equipment requirements, and measured health from the rest of the portfolio."]},"sources":[{"id":"ist-irs24","title":"FY2024 Form 990, original IRS e-file","publisher":"Institute for Safer Trucking / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202542479349300444/IRS990","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"ist-irs23","title":"FY2023 Form 990, original IRS e-file","publisher":"Institute for Safer Trucking / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202433209349310498/IRS990","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"ist-irs22","title":"FY2022 Form 990, original IRS e-file","publisher":"Institute for Safer Trucking / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202341729349300404/IRS990","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"ist-team","title":"Current team and Road Safe America merger","publisher":"Institute for Safer Trucking","url":"https://www.safertrucking.org/team-2","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"ist-priorities","title":"Current priorities and survivor support","publisher":"Institute for Safer Trucking","url":"https://www.safertrucking.org/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"ist-advocacy","title":"Advocacy Days","publisher":"Institute for Safer Trucking","url":"https://www.safertrucking.org/advocacy-days","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"ist-support","title":"Survivor Support Guide","publisher":"Institute for Safer Trucking","url":"https://www.safertrucking.org/survivor-support-guide","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"ist-partners","title":"Partners, including technology suppliers and plaintiff firms","publisher":"Institute for Safer Trucking","url":"https://www.safertrucking.org/partners","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"ist-statement","title":"Statement to House trucking hearing","publisher":"Institute for Safer Trucking and Road Safe America","url":"https://www.safertrucking.org/updates/blog-post-title-two-8l78b","published":"2025-04-01","retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"ist-aeb-study","title":"Effectiveness of front crash prevention systems in reducing large truck real-world crash rates","publisher":"Eric Teoh / IIHS / Traffic Injury Prevention","url":"https://www.iihs.org/research-areas/bibliography/ref/2211","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"ist-aeb-rule","title":"Heavy Vehicle Automatic Emergency Braking NPRM, especially pp. 170–177","publisher":"NHTSA and FMCSA","url":"https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/2023-06/NPRM_HV-AEB-for-web.pdf","published":"2023-07-06","retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"ist-agenda","title":"2026 regulatory agenda: heavy-vehicle AEB","publisher":"Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs / NHTSA","url":"https://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaViewRule?RIN=2127-AM36&operation=OPERATION_PRINT_RULE&pubId=202510","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"ist-speed-withdrawal","title":"Withdrawal of heavy-vehicle speed-limiter proposals","publisher":"NHTSA and FMCSA / Federal Register","url":"https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2025-07-24/pdf/2025-13928.pdf","published":"2025-07-24","retrieved":"2026-09-13"}]}