{"edition":"usa","organization":"Food Research & Action Center","organizationId":"org:food-research-and-action-center","boundaryVersion":"USA-50-states-DC-v1","updated":"2026-09-14","model":{"version":"usa-frac-alpha-1","costScope":"Two years of full recipient-only gross operating expense, including regrants and overhead, excluding separate active Action Council. Accrual Form 990 basis restores event costs. Public benefits and public administrative/social opportunity costs are outside numerator. This is a local scaling approximation for ordinary marginal support, not a claim one donor must finance two budgets or that effects scale linearly indefinitely.","geographicAttribution":"g=.998 is an explicit judgment allowing territorial/nonresident effects, informed by USDA participant geography but not equal to an observed outcome-weighted share. 50 states plus DC residents only; noncitizen residents count. No headquarters-based apportionment.","formula":"q=(life/exposure)*utility*transport/(1+discount)^lag; PY=N*z*T*p*a*b; Q_all=PY*q-b*h; Q_USA=g*Q_all; price=10*C/Q_USA when Q_USA>0. C is two annual budgets; only one two-year continuity cohort, no perpetual policy credit. lag includes the delay to realized lifetime gains.","counterfactual":"z is additional continuity conditional on relief relative to states replacing funds or fixing administration anyway; p is advocacy coalition-induced relief/implementation probability increment, not total enactment probability. a apportions that increment to FRAC; b separately discounts donor replacement/reserve substitution. Only additional early-child receipt counted.","attribution":"Subjective policy branch tied to current administrative-funding advocacy, not credit for all national SNAP spending or all historic wins. FRAC's WIC and other portfolio effects are net zero centrally but unestimated, not established absent. Other coalition/public inputs remain necessary.","uncertainty":"Very weak-confidence best estimate, not calibrated probabilities or confidence interval. Core policy and marginal enrollment quantities are judgments; historical clinical transport can be zero. Favorable/poor scenarios deliberately vary several parameters together. Full costs do not prove this partial model conservative if excluded effects are harmful.","nativeOutcomes":"Additional preschool child-years of SNAP receipt; WIC enrollment/retention and school-meal access tracked separately but not converted to health without causal bridges.","inputs":[{"name":"C","value":42995176,"unit":"USD two-year recipient cost","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Judgment extrapolation to two years at the observed annual recipient expense: 2 × (2024 Form 990 Part IX 21,482,914 + event direct costs 14,674); continuation at this scale is a model judgment.","sourceIds":["frac-99024"]},{"name":"N","value":4000000,"unit":"early-child participants per year","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Round down 2023 4.464 million preschool count to 4 million prospective scale; not a forecast of 2027 enrollment or number at risk.","sourceIds":["frac-snapdata"]},{"name":"z","value":0.05,"unit":"additional benefit-year fraction conditional on relief","basis":"judgment","rationale":"5% annual continuity equivalent: e.g. 20% avoid a three-month gap. Net of state replacement and other causes; no observed FRAC-specific estimate.","sourceIds":["frac-snap26"]},{"name":"T","value":2,"unit":"years of changed continuity","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Two years; no permanent repeal or lifelong benefit eligibility assumed.","sourceIds":["frac-snap26"]},{"name":"p","value":0.1,"unit":"coalition-induced probability increment","basis":"judgment","rationale":"10 percentage points for useful relief/implementation due to advocacy rather than political forces alone; weak prior, test zero.","sourceIds":["frac-snap26"]},{"name":"a","value":0.05,"unit":"FRAC share of incremental coalition contribution","basis":"judgment","rationale":"5% allows many national/state advocates and officials; not an empirical pivotality estimate.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"b","value":0.5,"unit":"marginal funding additionality","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Half of normalized activity additional after other donations, public funds and reserve substitution. Separate from policy counterfactual.","sourceIds":["frac-audit24","frac-99024"]},{"name":"life","value":1.2,"unit":"life-years for full early exposure","basis":"observed","rationale":"Study's modeled treated life-expectancy estimate, not measured FRAC outcome or observed complete lifespans.","sourceIds":["frac-childhealth"]},{"name":"exposure","value":5.75,"unit":"years from conception to age five","basis":"observed","rationale":"5.75-year exposure window; linear division is an additional model assumption, not demonstrated effect of isolated gaps.","sourceIds":["frac-childhealth"]},{"name":"utility","value":0.7,"unit":"QALY weight per added life-year","basis":"judgment","rationale":"0.7 for later-life health, not study-measured utility.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"transport","value":0.25,"unit":"fraction of historical per-year effect retained","basis":"judgment","rationale":"25% discounts modern nutrition, short discontinuities, selection and lifetime extrapolation. Zero remains credible.","sourceIds":["frac-childhealth","frac-prenatal26"]},{"name":"discount","value":0.03,"unit":"annual health discount rate","basis":"judgment","rationale":"3% standard modeling choice, not empirical finding.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"lag","value":60,"unit":"years until added life-year benefit","basis":"judgment","rationale":"60-year lumped approximation including prospective program delay; test 40–70 years rather than claim age-specific survival curve.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"g","value":0.998,"unit":"USA resident share","basis":"judgment","rationale":"99.8% permits territorial effects; uncertainty in relative health yield remains.","sourceIds":["frac-snapdata"]},{"name":"h","value":0,"unit":"other net QALY harm before funding additionality","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Zero for unpriced portfolio centrally; positive h captures displacement, implementation harm or other downside independent of policy success.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"WIC marginal enrollment","value":null,"unit":"additional retained participants per unrestricted dollar","basis":"unknown","rationale":"Awards and participation totals do not identify causal incremental uptake or next-dollar allocation.","sourceIds":["frac-wic25"]}],"scenarios":[{"id":"central","label":"Weak-confidence partial-pathway best estimate","costUSD":42995176,"allPopulationQalys":6.198947635382195,"editionQalys":6.186549740111431,"assumptions":"{\"C\":42995176,\"N\":4000000,\"z\":0.05,\"T\":2,\"p\":0.1,\"a\":0.05,\"b\":0.5,\"life\":1.2,\"exposure\":5.75,\"utility\":0.7,\"transport\":0.25,\"discount\":0.03,\"lag\":60,\"g\":0.998,\"h\":0}; net expected additional child-years=1000; q=0.006198947635382195 discounted QALYs per additional child-year."},{"id":"favorable","label":"Stronger policy leverage and transport","costUSD":42995176,"allPopulationQalys":644.8889645217323,"editionQalys":643.5991865926889,"assumptions":"{\"C\":42995176,\"N\":4000000,\"z\":0.15,\"T\":2,\"p\":0.3,\"a\":0.1,\"b\":0.8,\"life\":1.2,\"exposure\":5.75,\"utility\":0.7,\"transport\":0.5,\"discount\":0.03,\"lag\":40,\"g\":0.998,\"h\":0}; net expected additional child-years=28800; q=0.022391977934782373 discounted QALYs per additional child-year."},{"id":"poor","label":"Minimal avoidable churn and policy additionality","costUSD":42995176,"allPopulationQalys":0.0007380158742802134,"editionQalys":0.000736539842531653,"assumptions":"{\"C\":42995176,\"N\":4000000,\"z\":0.005,\"T\":2,\"p\":0.02,\"a\":0.01,\"b\":0.1,\"life\":1.2,\"exposure\":5.75,\"utility\":0.7,\"transport\":0.05,\"discount\":0.03,\"lag\":70,\"g\":0.998,\"h\":0}; net expected additional child-years=0.8; q=0.0009225198428502667 discounted QALYs per additional child-year."},{"id":"no-policy-effect","label":"Coalition changes no policy or implementation","costUSD":42995176,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"assumptions":"{\"C\":42995176,\"N\":4000000,\"z\":0.05,\"T\":2,\"p\":0,\"a\":0.05,\"b\":0.5,\"life\":1.2,\"exposure\":5.75,\"utility\":0.7,\"transport\":0.25,\"discount\":0.03,\"lag\":60,\"g\":0.998,\"h\":0}; net expected additional child-years=0; q=0.006198947635382195 discounted QALYs per additional child-year."},{"id":"no-health-transport","label":"Historical health effect does not transfer","costUSD":42995176,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"assumptions":"{\"C\":42995176,\"N\":4000000,\"z\":0.05,\"T\":2,\"p\":0.1,\"a\":0.05,\"b\":0.5,\"life\":1.2,\"exposure\":5.75,\"utility\":0.7,\"transport\":0,\"discount\":0.03,\"lag\":60,\"g\":0.998,\"h\":0}; net expected additional child-years=1000; q=0 discounted QALYs per additional child-year."},{"id":"adverse","label":"No continuity gain and other net harm","costUSD":42995176,"allPopulationQalys":-10,"editionQalys":-9.98,"assumptions":"{\"C\":42995176,\"N\":4000000,\"z\":0.05,\"T\":2,\"p\":0,\"a\":0.05,\"b\":0.5,\"life\":1.2,\"exposure\":5.75,\"utility\":0.7,\"transport\":0.25,\"discount\":0.03,\"lag\":60,\"g\":0.998,\"h\":20}; net expected additional child-years=0; q=0.006198947635382195 discounted QALYs per additional child-year."},{"id":"other-harm","label":"Central continuity plus net harm elsewhere","costUSD":42995176,"allPopulationQalys":-3.8010523646178047,"editionQalys":-3.793450259888569,"assumptions":"{\"C\":42995176,\"N\":4000000,\"z\":0.05,\"T\":2,\"p\":0.1,\"a\":0.05,\"b\":0.5,\"life\":1.2,\"exposure\":5.75,\"utility\":0.7,\"transport\":0.25,\"discount\":0.03,\"lag\":60,\"g\":0.998,\"h\":20}; net expected additional child-years=1000; q=0.006198947635382195 discounted QALYs per additional child-year."},{"id":"low-additionality","label":"Most donations replace other funding","costUSD":42995176,"allPopulationQalys":1.2397895270764392,"editionQalys":1.2373099480222862,"assumptions":"{\"C\":42995176,\"N\":4000000,\"z\":0.05,\"T\":2,\"p\":0.1,\"a\":0.05,\"b\":0.1,\"life\":1.2,\"exposure\":5.75,\"utility\":0.7,\"transport\":0.25,\"discount\":0.03,\"lag\":60,\"g\":0.998,\"h\":0}; net expected additional child-years=200; q=0.006198947635382195 discounted QALYs per additional child-year."},{"id":"three-year-cost-mean","label":"Historical mean cost sensitivity","costUSD":30693129.333333332,"allPopulationQalys":6.198947635382195,"editionQalys":6.186549740111431,"assumptions":"{\"C\":30693129.333333332,\"N\":4000000,\"z\":0.05,\"T\":2,\"p\":0.1,\"a\":0.05,\"b\":0.5,\"life\":1.2,\"exposure\":5.75,\"utility\":0.7,\"transport\":0.25,\"discount\":0.03,\"lag\":60,\"g\":0.998,\"h\":0}; net expected additional child-years=1000; q=0.006198947635382195 discounted QALYs per additional child-year."}],"sensitivity":["Central q=0.006198947635382195; about 1,000 expected additional child-years before geographic apportionment, not 400,000 FRAC-attributable child-years.","At q=0.006198947635382195 and g=.998, beating $1 million/$100 thousand per 10 USA QALYs requires 69497.82642372415 / 694978.2642372416 additional child-years after all attribution and funding adjustments.","Holding other central inputs, p*a must exceed 0.34748913211862076 for $1 million per 10 or 3.4748913211862074 for $100 thousand per 10, versus .005 central; the latter exceeds one. Stronger health/continuity or other pathways are needed.","Other net harm h above 12.39789527076439 QALYs before b erases central benefit. Harm is not multiplied by policy-success probability.","Every halving of z, p, a, b or transport doubles price absent other effects. Reducing the 60-year lag to 40 raises the present health value about 1.81-fold.","Using the historical mean reduces cost by about 29%, but the federal regrant portfolio is changing and neither historical cost base identifies next-dollar efficiency.","WIC could materially improve the assessment: require retained additional pregnancy/child episodes × causal QALYs per episode, net of alternative outreach, alongside a specific unrestricted-funding pathway. Do not divide national WIC health by FRAC's grant dollars."],"missingInputs":["2026–2028 unrestricted spending plan and marginal donor/public replacement, including WIC project continuation after its final award round.","Counterfactual effect of administrative relief on preschool benefit months and the coalition/FRAC incremental policy contribution.","Contemporary health utility and mortality effects of short benefit interruptions, with lag and persistence.","Causal WIC enrollment/retention by participant type, school-meal and adult pathways, public-resource opportunity costs and net harms."]},"sources":[{"id":"frac-99024","title":"2024 Form 990, Parts I, III, VIII–XII","publisher":"Food Research & Action Center","url":"https://frac.org/wp-content/uploads/FRAC-2024-Form-990-PDC.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"frac-99023","title":"2023 Form 990, Parts I, VIII and XII","publisher":"Food Research & Action Center","url":"https://frac.org/wp-content/uploads/FRAC-990-2023-Public-Disclosure-Copy.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"frac-99022","title":"2022 Form 990, Parts I and VIII","publisher":"Food Research & Action Center","url":"https://frac.org/wp-content/uploads/PDC-Food-Research-and-Action-Center-2022-990-Tax-Return_signed.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"frac-audit24","title":"2024 consolidated financial statements and notes","publisher":"Food Research & Action Center and FRAC Action Council","url":"https://frac.org/wp-content/uploads/FRAC-2024-audit.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"frac-financials","title":"Financial disclosure index, latest listed year 2024","publisher":"Food Research & Action Center","url":"https://frac.org/financials","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"frac-wic25","title":"Second and final WIC CIAO subgrant round","publisher":"FRAC / WIC CIAO","url":"https://www.hellowic.org/wic-ciao-round-2-subgrants/","published":"2025-01-07","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"frac-snap26","title":"Why the SNAP Administrative Cost Shift Threatens State Budgets and Program Operations","publisher":"Food Research & Action Center","url":"https://frac.org/blog/why-the-snap-administrative-cost-shift-threatens-state-budgets-and-program-operations","published":"2026-07-31","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"frac-rule26","title":"SNAP: Changes in Federal-State Administrative Cost Sharing, proposed rule","publisher":"USDA / Federal Register","url":"https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/06/24/2026-12696/supplemental-nutrition-assistance-program-changes-in-federal-state-administrative-cost-sharing","published":"2026-06-24","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"frac-snapdata","title":"Characteristics of SNAP Households: Fiscal Year 2023, Table B.14 and definitions","publisher":"USDA / Mathematica","url":"https://fns-prod.azureedge.us/sites/default/files/resource-files/snap-FY23-Characteristics-Report.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"frac-childhealth","title":"Is the Social Safety Net a Long-Term Investment? Large-Scale Evidence From the Food Stamps Program","publisher":"Bailey, Hoynes, Rossin-Slater and Walker / Review of Economic Studies","url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11395512/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"frac-prenatal26","title":"How Does SNAP Access Prior to Pregnancy Affect Maternal and Infant Health Outcomes?","publisher":"The Milbank Quarterly","url":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1468-0009.70097","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"frac-wicreview","title":"Maternal and Child Outcomes Associated With WIC","publisher":"AHRQ","url":"https://effectivehealthcare.ahrq.gov/products/outcomes-nutrition/research","published":"2022-04-19","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"frac-wicfaq","title":"WIC CIAO Round 2 final funding and evaluation FAQ","publisher":"FRAC / WIC CIAO","url":"https://www.hellowic.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/WIC-CIAO-Round-2-RFA-FAQ.pdf","published":"2024-08-28","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"frac-giving","title":"Official giving options and recipient identification","publisher":"Food Research & Action Center","url":"https://frac.org/ways-to-donate","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"frac-processor","title":"Officially linked EveryAction donation form, recipient name visible; checkout not inspected","publisher":"Food Research & Action Center / EveryAction","url":"https://secure.everyaction.com/KsIAFphfDEeLdwPGWes50Q2","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"}]}