{"edition":"usa","organization":"Farmworker Justice","organizationId":"org:farmworker-justice","boundaryVersion":"USA-50-states-DC-v1","updated":"2026-09-14","model":{"version":"usa-fj-alpha-heat-partial-1","costScope":"Two full annual recipient budgets at 2024 expense, all programs and support including netted event costs. Employer/public implementation costs excluded and disclosed; only agricultural heat mortality quantified.","geographicAttribution":"USA 50 states plus DC resident health; g=.9 judgment, .7–.98 sensitivity. National headquarters does not determine attribution. H-2A status alone is not a residence classification. No overseas or other-industry spillover credit.","formula":"C=2*2255738. F=52/12. Y(T)=sum(t=1..T)1/1.03^t. Q_all=F*f*u*k*e*q*Y(T)*p*a*b-H. Q_USA=g*Q_all. Price=10*C/Q_USA when positive. q discounts lifetime health after each averted death; Y discounts when that death would occur. Two-year spending buys a subjective five-year effective protection stream, not five years of spending.","counterfactual":"Without additional work, federal deliberation, state standards, employer duties, public enforcement and other advocates continue. k limits the baseline burden newly reachable beyond these protections and jurisdictional gaps; e is reduction among that reachable burden under real implementation. p is incremental coalition effect on securing the modeled protective stream, not the raw chance a rule passes.","attribution":"a=.1 assigns a modest share of farmworker-specific coalition influence to FJ's technical and advocacy role. b=.5 discounts reserves, other grants and donor replacement. Neither is measured. No sole credit for OSHA, no equal division of signatories, no separate toolkit benefit added to the same protection.","uncertainty":"Very-low-confidence partial expected-value judgment. Numerical assumptions are revisable opinions, not measured organization effectiveness or a confidence interval. Mortality data, occupational undercount, farmworker share, enforcement, timing and marginal advocacy all matter. Other recipient work unpriced; net harm possible.","nativeOutcomes":"Newly protected workers, effective protected years, heat deaths prevented and discounted lifetime health. Clinical training contacts, guides, comments and policy wins are intermediate outputs. Nonfatal heat illness and indirect injuries deliberately excluded.","inputs":[{"name":"F","value":4.333333333333333,"unit":"reported/imputed natural-resources heat fatalities per year","basis":"observed","rationale":"52 over 2011–22; includes mining, forestry and fishing, not exclusively farmworkers.","sourceIds":["fj-osha-rule"]},{"name":"f","value":0.7,"unit":"farmworker share of natural-resources mortality","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Exclude other industries; .5–.9 scenarios. A selected farmworker-specific series would improve this approximation.","sourceIds":["fj-osha-rule"]},{"name":"u","value":3,"unit":"fatality undercount multiplier","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Use 3 rather than OSHA central 14; the 14-fold transport comes from general-population excess mortality, not a measured occupational undercount.","sourceIds":["fj-osha-rule"]},{"name":"k","value":0.5,"unit":"baseline farmworker burden newly reachable by protection","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Excludes small-farm enforcement gaps, existing state/employer protection and independent improvements. .2–.8 scenarios; not a measured workforce fraction.","sourceIds":["fj-small-farms","fj-states"]},{"name":"e","value":0.33,"unit":"mortality reduction with implemented protection","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Clinical-mechanistic judgment, not direct transplantation of the California point estimate. .1–.7 positive scenarios, zero possible; includes imperfect real-world adherence.","sourceIds":["fj-heat-study25","fj-heat-study19"]},{"name":"q","value":15,"unit":"discounted lifetime QALYs per prevented heat death","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Working-age population; roughly 27 remaining years at 3% and .82 health quality gives 15. Not observed decedent age/utility data. 8–25 scenarios.","sourceIds":["fj-h2a-death"]},{"name":"T","value":5,"unit":"effective years of added protection","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Bounded 2027–31 equivalent horizon, not a claim that finalization occurs in 2027. Delay or nonfinalization reduces this value.","sourceIds":["fj-policy"]},{"name":"p","value":0.1,"unit":"incremental coalition probability of securing modeled protection","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Ten percentage points is a subjective policy forecast, not baseline passage probability. Covers adoption and survival to implementation; .01–.3 scenarios with zero possible.","sourceIds":["fj-coalition","fj-policy"]},{"name":"a","value":0.1,"unit":"FJ share of incremental coalition contribution","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Farmworker-specific expertise and ongoing work, but government, labor groups, MCN, Public Citizen and others matter; .02–.2 scenarios, not equal signatory allocation.","sourceIds":["fj-coalition","fj-states"]},{"name":"b","value":0.5,"unit":"funding additionality","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Discount reserves, existing grants and replacement donors; .1–.8 scenarios. No verified next-dollar work plan.","sourceIds":["fj-audit24","fj-99024"]},{"name":"g","value":0.9,"unit":"USA 50 states and DC resident health share","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Domestic work focus; .7–.98 sensitivity for temporary nonresident workers, territorial work and follow-on health outside the resident boundary. Immigration status alone does not decide residency.","sourceIds":["fj-h2a-death"]},{"name":"r","value":0.03,"unit":"annual discount rate","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Future effective protection years discounted separately from lifetime health after each death.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"H","value":0,"unit":"QALYs of adverse effects","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Provisional zero, not demonstrated absence of harm; adverse scenario subtracts 1 for retaliation, lost income or displaced care.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"otherPathways","value":null,"unit":"net QALYs from remaining work","basis":"unknown","rationale":"Healthcare-access assistance, pesticides, immigration/labor litigation, nonfatal heat injury and spillovers to other industries unpriced.","sourceIds":["fj-operations"]}],"scenarios":[{"id":"central","label":"Partial heat-mortality central","costUSD":4511476,"allPopulationQalys":0.5157322756179443,"editionQalys":0.4641590480561499,"assumptions":"f=0.7; u=3; k=0.5; e=0.33; q=15; T=5; p=0.1; a=0.1; b=0.5; H=0; g=0.9; F=52/12; Y=4.579707187194534. Partial agricultural heat-mortality pathway only."},{"id":"favorable","label":"Strong clinical and policy influence","costUSD":4511476,"allPopulationQalys":312.98337832470935,"editionQalys":306.72371075821513,"assumptions":"f=0.9; u=14; k=0.8; e=0.7; q=25; T=10; p=0.3; a=0.2; b=0.8; H=0; g=0.98; F=52/12; Y=8.530202836775828. Partial agricultural heat-mortality pathway only."},{"id":"poor","label":"Little additional protection","costUSD":4511476,"allPopulationQalys":0.000013266723222421217,"editionQalys":0.00000928670625569485,"assumptions":"f=0.5; u=1; k=0.2; e=0.1; q=8; T=2; p=0.01; a=0.02; b=0.1; H=0; g=0.7; F=52/12; Y=1.9134696955415214. Partial agricultural heat-mortality pathway only."},{"id":"zero","label":"No incremental protection","costUSD":4511476,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"assumptions":"f=0.7; u=3; k=0.5; e=0.33; q=15; T=5; p=0; a=0.1; b=0.5; H=0; g=0.9; F=52/12; Y=4.579707187194534. Partial agricultural heat-mortality pathway only."},{"id":"adverse","label":"No benefit with illustrative downside","costUSD":4511476,"allPopulationQalys":-1,"editionQalys":-0.9,"assumptions":"f=0.7; u=3; k=0.5; e=0.33; q=15; T=5; p=0; a=0.1; b=0.5; H=1; g=0.9; F=52/12; Y=4.579707187194534. Partial agricultural heat-mortality pathway only."}],"sensitivity":["At $4,511,476 cost, $1 million/$100 thousand per 10 requires 45.11476/451.1476 net USA QALYs. With q=15 and g=.9, that is 3.34183/33.41834 fully additional discounted deaths prevented, compared with central .03438 before QALY conversion.","Price scales inversely with each positive multiplicative input. A political contribution of zero or complete donor replacement eliminates quantified benefit.","Using OSHA's 14-fold undercount alone instead of 3 improves the central price by 14/3, not enough to reach $1 million per 10. The favorable result requires multiple favorable assumptions together.","Using the three-year expense mean increases cost about 1.1%. Restricting the denominator to the heat project would not represent ordinary recipient support.","Any all-population harm above .51573 QALYs erases the central partial benefit. Nonfatal benefits and other pathways might add value, but are not established offsets.","Implementation delay matters: shifting the same stream five years later reduces it by 1/1.03^5. A paper rule without protection is zero, regardless of advocacy success."],"missingInputs":["Marginal funded work plan, available capacity and replacement funding probability.","Farmworker-specific current fatality burden and credible occupational undercount, separated from other natural-resource industries.","Incremental coalition effect, FJ contribution and eventual enforcement uptake net of existing state rules and public action.","Age, residence, remaining health and competing mortality of actually affected workers.","Unique healthcare-access/occupational-service changes caused by FJ, subsequent clinical outcomes, costs and overlap with heat policy."]},"sources":[{"id":"fj-99024","title":"2024 original Form 990","publisher":"Farmworker Justice / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/521196708/202542739349300309/full","published":"2025-09-30","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"fj-99023","title":"2023 original Form 990","publisher":"Farmworker Justice / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/521196708/202422899349302067/full","published":"2024-10-15","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"fj-99022","title":"2022 original Form 990","publisher":"Farmworker Justice / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/521196708/202312869349301981/full","published":"2023-10-13","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"fj-audit24","title":"2024 audited financial statements and federal awards","publisher":"Calibre CPA Group / Farmworker Justice","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/download-audit?download=true&filename=2024-12-GSAFAC-0000379518","published":"2025-08-04","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"fj-operations","title":"Current organization and programs","publisher":"Farmworker Justice","url":"https://www.farmworkerjustice.org/en","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"fj-policy","title":"Occupational safety policy","publisher":"Farmworker Justice","url":"https://www.farmworkerjustice.org/en/policy/occupational-safety","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"fj-training","title":"Environmental health and heat training","publisher":"Farmworker Justice","url":"https://www.farmworkerjustice.org/en/programs/environmental-safety","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"fj-coalition","title":"August 2025 heat-protection webinar","publisher":"National Farm Worker Ministry","url":"https://nfwm.org/news/webinar-too-hot-to-work-farmworker-heat-protections/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"fj-states","title":"State heat-rule review and partnership","publisher":"Vermont Law and Graduate School, CAFS","url":"https://cafs.vermontlaw.edu/cafs-report-reviews-state-standards-to-prevent-heat-illness-among-farmworkers","published":"2025-12-19","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"fj-guide26","title":"Clinical heat guide updated in 2026","publisher":"Migrant Clinicians Network and Farmworker Justice","url":"https://www.migrantclinician.org/resources/350%2B467/%2A/index.html","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"fj-osha-rule","title":"Proposed heat standard: risk, benefits and uncertainty","publisher":"OSHA / Federal Register","url":"https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2024-08-30/pdf/2024-14824.pdf","published":"2024-08-30","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"fj-osha-current","title":"Current heat enforcement resources","publisher":"OSHA","url":"https://www.osha.gov/heat-exposure/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"fj-small-farms","title":"Small-farm enforcement limitations","publisher":"OSHA","url":"https://www.osha.gov/memos/2014-07-29/policy-clarification-oshas-enforcement-authority-small-farms","published":"2014-07-29","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"fj-heat-study25","title":"California heat standard and mortality","publisher":"Adam Dean and Jamie McCallum / Health Affairs","url":"https://doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.2025.00096","published":"2025-12-02","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"fj-heat-study19","title":"Heat stress awareness program outcomes","publisher":"McCarthy, Shofer and Green-McKenzie / JOEM","url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31274674/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"fj-h2a-death","title":"Investigation of fatal heat illness in H-2A worker","publisher":"US Department of Labor / OSHA","url":"https://www.osha.gov/news/newsreleases/region4/04152024","published":"2024-04-15","retrieved":"2026-09-14"}]}