{"edition":"usa","organization":"End Overdose","organizationId":"org:end-overdose","boundaryVersion":"USA-50-states-DC-v1","updated":"2026-10-02","display":{"metric":{"id":"daly-equivalent","years":1,"label":"DALY","priceLabel":"$ / DALY"},"priceUSD":271217.81357609865,"canonicalPriceUSDPerTenEquivalentYears":2712178.1357609867,"conversion":"display only; QALYs and income equivalents are not measured clinical DALYs"},"listDisplay":{"metric":{"id":"daly-equivalent","years":1,"label":"DALY","priceLabel":"$ / DALY"},"priceUSD":271217.81357609865,"canonicalPriceUSDPerTenEquivalentYears":2712178.1357609867,"conversion":"display only; QALYs and income equivalents are not measured clinical DALYs"},"model":{"version":"usa-end-overdose-health-resources-2026-10-02","costScope":"Full donor gift in numerator; judged $40 comprehensive cash per nominal offer. Separate gross institutional companion values contributed stock/unpaid inputs per nominal offer and emergency response per credited administration, not measured induced net societal cost. Signed recipient shipping enters welfare, not twice into the companion.","geographicAttribution":"USA means residents of the 50 states and DC. Domestic program and partner records support a predominantly domestic footprint but do not measure patient residence. All scenario shares g, including reference 0.99, are analyst judgments. Territorial and international attendee benefits fall outside edition QALYs and are not separately identified. No California, Bay Area or population-share allocation is inherited. Do not sum this report with nested state or metro benefits.","formula":"N=G*a/c; A=N*b; D=A*q; R=D*(1-purchaseShare)*e*k*t*d; Z=R*f; L=sum finite trapezoidal survival after day3, discounted at year-.5+delay; H=g*(Z*L-R*h-donorHarm). Separate buyer×shipping cohorts each add .5*people*log1p(net cash/baseline)*g/(1+discount)^delay. Combined=H+signed resource equivalents; price=10*G/combined when positive. Unknown is not zero.","counterfactual":"Without the gift, existing End Overdose funding, already funded cabinets, manufacturer and public stock, other distributors, trained witnesses and EMS remain. b represents the share of nominal offers made additional by the gift, after replacement funding. q represents actual completed delivery; k usable access at the opportunity; t clinical timing beyond other available response. These are distinct counterfactual steps. Public stock may enable donor-funded last-mile work rather than make it redundant, but the current overlap is unmeasured.","attribution":"Would-be actual purchasers are excluded before t. t excludes equivalent timely other rescue in the remaining pool; f is residual absolute extra three-day survival conditional on genuinely additional administrations, not a second EMS/other-naloxone discount. Repeat-event d and funding b are separate judgments. Ordinary survivor earnings excluded. Always-alive cash pool share<=1-abs(f), with explicit independence.","uncertainty":"The central naloxone-pathway estimate is a subjective best guess, not a whole-portfolio expected return. Its inputs and joint stress tests are not probability-weighted estimates, confidence intervals or bounds. Older EMS and ED survivor cohorts do not identify the survival of otherwise-fatal cases rescued by this organization in 2026; future hazards and utility are explicit judgments. Endpoints, cohort composition and annual rates versus risks differ. Capacity constraints may make the linear gift model fail. Unpriced portfolio effects can be positive or negative, so the naloxone pathway is not a proven lower bound on the whole organization's value.","nativeOutcomes":"Per $10,000:162.5 nominal offers,73.125 additional offers,54.84375 delivered two-dose kits,52.1015625 nonpurchaser clinical-eligible kits,.0421241 credited administrations,.00505489 added three-day survivors,.0381258 USA clinical years and−.00125505 signed resource equivalents. Conditional model outputs, not observed services per dollar.","inputs":[{"name":"FY2022 recipient spending","value":516362,"unit":"USD per calendar year","basis":"observed","rationale":"Original 2022 Part IX; same EIN, 12 months, cash accounting.","sourceIds":["eo-99022"]},{"name":"FY2023 recipient spending","value":942519,"unit":"USD per calendar year","basis":"observed","rationale":"Original 2023 Part IX; same EIN, 12 months, cash accounting.","sourceIds":["eo-99023"]},{"name":"FY2024 recipient spending","value":970440,"unit":"USD per calendar year","basis":"observed","rationale":"Original 2024 Parts I and IX agree. Part III is not used for program allocation.","sourceIds":["eo-99024"]},{"name":"Kit content","value":2,"unit":"intranasal doses per national store kit","basis":"observed","rationale":"Not a definition of the campaign's manufacturer units or all bulk order packaging.","sourceIds":["eo-kit","eo-bulk"]},{"name":"Current remaining usable inventory","value":null,"unit":"doses, by source and expiry","basis":"unknown","rationale":"Campaign reports a past contribution; current stock-flow and fulfillment capacity are not published.","sourceIds":["eo-campaign","eo-kit"]},{"name":"CalRx acquisition benchmark","value":19,"unit":"USD per twin-pack","basis":"observed","rationale":"Current California procurement benchmark. It is neither an End Overdose invoice nor the opportunity cost of a donated medicine.","sourceIds":["calrx-price"]},{"name":"Actual additional completed delivery per gift","value":null,"unit":"kits per USD","basis":"unknown","rationale":"Requires allocation, funding replacement, inventory and labor constraints, shipment completion and recipient charges.","sourceIds":["eo-bulk","eo-ors"]},{"name":"Observed EMS survivor mortality benchmark","value":0.075,"unit":"risk of death by one year conditional on three-day survival","basis":"observed","rationale":"Massachusetts 2013–15 cohort: 668 deaths among 8,927 three-day survivors, rounded. Not an End Overdose parameter.","sourceIds":["naloxone-ems-survival"]},{"name":"Unpriced downstream net costs","value":null,"unit":"USD","basis":"unknown","rationale":"Patient time, future net medical costs, alternative uses of contributed stock and other portfolio consequences remain unmeasured.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"G","value":10000,"unit":"explicit model parameter (see equation and cost section)","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite analyst judgment, not newly identified organizational effect; source/model memo and independent challenge explain counterfactual boundaries.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"a","value":0.65,"unit":"explicit model parameter (see equation and cost section)","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite analyst judgment, not newly identified organizational effect; source/model memo and independent challenge explain counterfactual boundaries.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"c","value":40,"unit":"explicit model parameter (see equation and cost section)","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite analyst judgment, not newly identified organizational effect; source/model memo and independent challenge explain counterfactual boundaries.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"b","value":0.45,"unit":"explicit model parameter (see equation and cost section)","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite analyst judgment, not newly identified organizational effect; source/model memo and independent challenge explain counterfactual boundaries.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"q","value":0.75,"unit":"explicit model parameter (see equation and cost section)","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite analyst judgment, not newly identified organizational effect; source/model memo and independent challenge explain counterfactual boundaries.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"e","value":0.007,"unit":"explicit model parameter (see equation and cost section)","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite analyst judgment, not newly identified organizational effect; source/model memo and independent challenge explain counterfactual boundaries.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"k","value":0.55,"unit":"explicit model parameter (see equation and cost section)","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite analyst judgment, not newly identified organizational effect; source/model memo and independent challenge explain counterfactual boundaries.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"t","value":0.35,"unit":"explicit model parameter (see equation and cost section)","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite analyst judgment, not newly identified organizational effect; source/model memo and independent challenge explain counterfactual boundaries.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"d","value":0.6,"unit":"explicit model parameter (see equation and cost section)","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite analyst judgment, not newly identified organizational effect; source/model memo and independent challenge explain counterfactual boundaries.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"f","value":0.12,"unit":"explicit model parameter (see equation and cost section)","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite analyst judgment, not newly identified organizational effect; source/model memo and independent challenge explain counterfactual boundaries.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"m1","value":0.08,"unit":"explicit model parameter (see equation and cost section)","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite analyst judgment, not newly identified organizational effect; source/model memo and independent challenge explain counterfactual boundaries.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"m","value":0.05,"unit":"explicit model parameter (see equation and cost section)","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite analyst judgment, not newly identified organizational effect; source/model memo and independent challenge explain counterfactual boundaries.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"T","value":20,"unit":"explicit model parameter (see equation and cost section)","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite analyst judgment, not newly identified organizational effect; source/model memo and independent challenge explain counterfactual boundaries.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"u","value":0.8,"unit":"explicit model parameter (see equation and cost section)","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite analyst judgment, not newly identified organizational effect; source/model memo and independent challenge explain counterfactual boundaries.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"g","value":0.995,"unit":"explicit model parameter (see equation and cost section)","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite analyst judgment, not newly identified organizational effect; source/model memo and independent challenge explain counterfactual boundaries.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"delay","value":0.5,"unit":"explicit model parameter (see equation and cost section)","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite analyst judgment, not newly identified organizational effect; source/model memo and independent challenge explain counterfactual boundaries.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"discount","value":0.03,"unit":"explicit model parameter (see equation and cost section)","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite analyst judgment, not newly identified organizational effect; source/model memo and independent challenge explain counterfactual boundaries.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"h","value":0,"unit":"explicit model parameter (see equation and cost section)","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite analyst judgment, not newly identified organizational effect; source/model memo and independent challenge explain counterfactual boundaries.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"donorHarm","value":0,"unit":"explicit model parameter (see equation and cost section)","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite analyst judgment, not newly identified organizational effect; source/model memo and independent challenge explain counterfactual boundaries.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"stock","value":15,"unit":"explicit model parameter (see equation and cost section)","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite analyst judgment, not newly identified organizational effect; source/model memo and independent challenge explain counterfactual boundaries.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"unpaid","value":8,"unit":"explicit model parameter (see equation and cost section)","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite analyst judgment, not newly identified organizational effect; source/model memo and independent challenge explain counterfactual boundaries.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"ems","value":500,"unit":"explicit model parameter (see equation and cost section)","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite analyst judgment, not newly identified organizational effect; source/model memo and independent challenge explain counterfactual boundaries.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"purchaseShare","value":0.05,"unit":"explicit model parameter (see equation and cost section)","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite analyst judgment, not newly identified organizational effect; source/model memo and independent challenge explain counterfactual boundaries.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"purchaseCash","value":20,"unit":"explicit model parameter (see equation and cost section)","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite analyst judgment, not newly identified organizational effect; source/model memo and independent challenge explain counterfactual boundaries.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"shippingShare","value":0.4,"unit":"explicit model parameter (see equation and cost section)","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite analyst judgment, not newly identified organizational effect; source/model memo and independent challenge explain counterfactual boundaries.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"incrementalShippingCash","value":6,"unit":"explicit model parameter (see equation and cost section)","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite analyst judgment, not newly identified organizational effect; source/model memo and independent challenge explain counterfactual boundaries.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"incomeBefore","value":30000,"unit":"explicit model parameter (see equation and cost section)","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite analyst judgment, not newly identified organizational effect; source/model memo and independent challenge explain counterfactual boundaries.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"incomeIndependent","value":1,"unit":"explicit model parameter (see equation and cost section)","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite analyst judgment, not newly identified organizational effect; source/model memo and independent challenge explain counterfactual boundaries.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"commonAliveShare","value":0,"unit":"explicit model parameter (see equation and cost section)","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite analyst judgment, not newly identified organizational effect; source/model memo and independent challenge explain counterfactual boundaries.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"commonAliveIncomeDelta","value":0,"unit":"explicit model parameter (see equation and cost section)","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite analyst judgment, not newly identified organizational effect; source/model memo and independent challenge explain counterfactual boundaries.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"commonAliveIncomeBefore","value":22000,"unit":"explicit model parameter (see equation and cost section)","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite analyst judgment, not newly identified organizational effect; source/model memo and independent challenge explain counterfactual boundaries.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"commonAliveIndependent","value":0,"unit":"explicit model parameter (see equation and cost section)","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite analyst judgment, not newly identified organizational effect; source/model memo and independent challenge explain counterfactual boundaries.","sourceIds":[]}],"scenarios":[{"id":"central","label":"Conditional donor health and household resources","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0.03831737239919566,"editionQalys":0.03812578553719968,"assumptions":"{\"id\":\"central-judgment\",\"G\":10000,\"a\":0.65,\"c\":40,\"b\":0.45,\"q\":0.75,\"e\":0.007,\"k\":0.55,\"t\":0.35,\"d\":0.6,\"f\":0.12,\"m1\":0.08,\"m\":0.05,\"T\":20,\"u\":0.8,\"g\":0.995,\"delay\":0.5,\"discount\":0.03,\"h\":0,\"donorHarm\":0,\"stock\":15,\"unpaid\":8,\"ems\":500,\"purchaseShare\":0.05,\"purchaseCash\":20,\"shippingShare\":0.4,\"incrementalShippingCash\":6,\"incomeBefore\":30000,\"incomeIndependent\":1,\"commonAliveShare\":0,\"commonAliveIncomeDelta\":0,\"commonAliveIncomeBefore\":22000,\"commonAliveIndependent\":0}; coefficients are judgments, not measured effects. {\"health\":false,\"income\":false,\"response\":false}","parameters":{"id":"central-judgment","G":10000,"a":0.65,"c":40,"b":0.45,"q":0.75,"e":0.007,"k":0.55,"t":0.35,"d":0.6,"f":0.12,"m1":0.08,"m":0.05,"T":20,"u":0.8,"g":0.995,"delay":0.5,"discount":0.03,"h":0,"donorHarm":0,"stock":15,"unpaid":8,"ems":500,"purchaseShare":0.05,"purchaseCash":20,"shippingShare":0.4,"incrementalShippingCash":6,"incomeBefore":30000,"incomeIndependent":1,"commonAliveShare":0,"commonAliveIncomeDelta":0,"commonAliveIncomeBefore":22000,"commonAliveIndependent":0},"nativeOutputs":{"id":"central-judgment","parameters":{"id":"central-judgment","G":10000,"a":0.65,"c":40,"b":0.45,"q":0.75,"e":0.007,"k":0.55,"t":0.35,"d":0.6,"f":0.12,"m1":0.08,"m":0.05,"T":20,"u":0.8,"g":0.995,"delay":0.5,"discount":0.03,"h":0,"donorHarm":0,"stock":15,"unpaid":8,"ems":500,"purchaseShare":0.05,"purchaseCash":20,"shippingShare":0.4,"incrementalShippingCash":6,"incomeBefore":30000,"incomeIndependent":1,"commonAliveShare":0,"commonAliveIncomeDelta":0,"commonAliveIncomeBefore":22000,"commonAliveIndependent":0},"nominalOffers":162.5,"additionalOffers":73.125,"additionalDeliveredKits":54.84375,"doses":109.6875,"healthEligibleNonpurchaserKits":52.1015625,"uniqueCreditedAdditionalAdministrations":0.04212411328124999,"additionalThreeDaySurvivors":0.005054893593749999,"finiteQalyPerThreeDaySurvivorAtGift":7.580253013945189,"survivalAtHorizon":0.3471653143324827,"healthQalysUSA":0.03812578553719968,"directHouseholdNetCashUSA":-76.39734375000002,"householdPurchaseCashUSA":54.56953125,"householdIncrementalShippingCashUSA":130.966875,"directHouseholdHealthyYearEquivalentUSA":-0.0012550510225798085,"conditionalAliveCashUSA":0,"conditionalAliveHealthyYearEquivalentUSA":0,"resourceEquivalentUSA":-0.0012550510225798085,"combinedEquivalentUSA":0.03687073451461988,"grossInstitutionalEnvelopeUSD":13758.562056640625,"healthDonationPricePer10USD":2622896.7768396293,"healthResourcePricePer10USD":3608728.807231072,"resourceDonationPricePer10USD":null,"combinedDonationPricePer10USD":2712178.1357609867,"combinedResourcePricePer10USD":3731567.118953142,"unknown":{"health":false,"income":false,"response":false}},"incomeUnknown":false,"incomePathways":[{"people":1.096875,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":30000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":14,"years":1,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":0.995,"independentShare":1,"delayYears":0.5,"discountRate":0.03,"sourceIds":["eo-kit","ndp","eo-income-method"],"rationale":"Judged otherwise-purchasing mailed cohort; actual incremental cash, not inventory value.","counterfactual":"Equivalent otherwise-purchased protection is excluded from added clinical access. Shipping is incremental versus the alternative. One annual consumption-equivalent receipt, no recurring wages."},{"people":1.6453125,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":30000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":20,"years":1,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":0.995,"independentShare":1,"delayYears":0.5,"discountRate":0.03,"sourceIds":["eo-kit","ndp","eo-income-method"],"rationale":"Judged otherwise-purchasing unmailed cohort; actual incremental cash, not inventory value.","counterfactual":"Equivalent otherwise-purchased protection is excluded from added clinical access. Shipping is incremental versus the alternative. One annual consumption-equivalent receipt, no recurring wages."},{"people":20.840625000000003,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":30000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-6,"years":1,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":0.995,"independentShare":1,"delayYears":0.5,"discountRate":0.03,"sourceIds":["eo-kit","ndp","eo-income-method"],"rationale":"Judged nonpurchasing mailed cohort; actual incremental cash, not inventory value.","counterfactual":"Equivalent otherwise-purchased protection is excluded from added clinical access. Shipping is incremental versus the alternative. One annual consumption-equivalent receipt, no recurring wages."},{"people":31.260937499999997,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":30000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":0,"years":1,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":0.995,"independentShare":1,"delayYears":0.5,"discountRate":0.03,"sourceIds":["eo-kit","ndp","eo-income-method"],"rationale":"Judged nonpurchasing unmailed cohort; actual incremental cash, not inventory value.","counterfactual":"Equivalent otherwise-purchased protection is excluded from added clinical access. Shipping is incremental versus the alternative. One annual consumption-equivalent receipt, no recurring wages."}]},{"id":"prior-cash-cost","label":"prior cash cost","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0.030653897919356535,"editionQalys":0.03050062842975975,"assumptions":"{\"id\":\"prior-cash-cost\",\"G\":10000,\"a\":0.65,\"c\":50,\"b\":0.45,\"q\":0.75,\"e\":0.007,\"k\":0.55,\"t\":0.35,\"d\":0.6,\"f\":0.12,\"m1\":0.08,\"m\":0.05,\"T\":20,\"u\":0.8,\"g\":0.995,\"delay\":0.5,\"discount\":0.03,\"h\":0,\"donorHarm\":0,\"stock\":15,\"unpaid\":8,\"ems\":500,\"purchaseShare\":0.05,\"purchaseCash\":20,\"shippingShare\":0.4,\"incrementalShippingCash\":6,\"incomeBefore\":30000,\"incomeIndependent\":1,\"commonAliveShare\":0,\"commonAliveIncomeDelta\":0,\"commonAliveIncomeBefore\":22000,\"commonAliveIndependent\":0}; coefficients are judgments, not measured effects. {\"health\":false,\"income\":false,\"response\":false}","parameters":{"id":"prior-cash-cost","G":10000,"a":0.65,"c":50,"b":0.45,"q":0.75,"e":0.007,"k":0.55,"t":0.35,"d":0.6,"f":0.12,"m1":0.08,"m":0.05,"T":20,"u":0.8,"g":0.995,"delay":0.5,"discount":0.03,"h":0,"donorHarm":0,"stock":15,"unpaid":8,"ems":500,"purchaseShare":0.05,"purchaseCash":20,"shippingShare":0.4,"incrementalShippingCash":6,"incomeBefore":30000,"incomeIndependent":1,"commonAliveShare":0,"commonAliveIncomeDelta":0,"commonAliveIncomeBefore":22000,"commonAliveIndependent":0},"nativeOutputs":{"id":"prior-cash-cost","parameters":{"id":"prior-cash-cost","G":10000,"a":0.65,"c":50,"b":0.45,"q":0.75,"e":0.007,"k":0.55,"t":0.35,"d":0.6,"f":0.12,"m1":0.08,"m":0.05,"T":20,"u":0.8,"g":0.995,"delay":0.5,"discount":0.03,"h":0,"donorHarm":0,"stock":15,"unpaid":8,"ems":500,"purchaseShare":0.05,"purchaseCash":20,"shippingShare":0.4,"incrementalShippingCash":6,"incomeBefore":30000,"incomeIndependent":1,"commonAliveShare":0,"commonAliveIncomeDelta":0,"commonAliveIncomeBefore":22000,"commonAliveIndependent":0},"nominalOffers":130,"additionalOffers":58.5,"additionalDeliveredKits":43.875,"doses":87.75,"healthEligibleNonpurchaserKits":41.68125,"uniqueCreditedAdditionalAdministrations":0.033699290625,"additionalThreeDaySurvivors":0.004043914875,"finiteQalyPerThreeDaySurvivorAtGift":7.580253013945189,"survivalAtHorizon":0.3471653143324827,"healthQalysUSA":0.03050062842975975,"directHouseholdNetCashUSA":-61.117875,"householdPurchaseCashUSA":43.655625,"householdIncrementalShippingCashUSA":104.77350000000001,"directHouseholdHealthyYearEquivalentUSA":-0.0010040408180638461,"conditionalAliveCashUSA":0,"conditionalAliveHealthyYearEquivalentUSA":0,"resourceEquivalentUSA":-0.0010040408180638461,"combinedEquivalentUSA":0.029496587611695903,"grossInstitutionalEnvelopeUSD":13006.8496453125,"healthDonationPricePer10USD":3278620.971049536,"healthResourcePricePer10USD":4264453.001440979,"resourceDonationPricePer10USD":null,"combinedDonationPricePer10USD":3390222.669701233,"combinedResourcePricePer10USD":4409611.652893388,"unknown":{"health":false,"income":false,"response":false}},"incomeUnknown":false,"incomePathways":[{"people":0.8775000000000001,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":30000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":14,"years":1,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":0.995,"independentShare":1,"delayYears":0.5,"discountRate":0.03,"sourceIds":["eo-kit","ndp","eo-income-method"],"rationale":"Judged otherwise-purchasing mailed cohort; actual incremental cash, not inventory value.","counterfactual":"Equivalent otherwise-purchased protection is excluded from added clinical access. Shipping is incremental versus the alternative. One annual consumption-equivalent receipt, no recurring wages."},{"people":1.31625,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":30000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":20,"years":1,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":0.995,"independentShare":1,"delayYears":0.5,"discountRate":0.03,"sourceIds":["eo-kit","ndp","eo-income-method"],"rationale":"Judged otherwise-purchasing unmailed cohort; actual incremental cash, not inventory value.","counterfactual":"Equivalent otherwise-purchased protection is excluded from added clinical access. Shipping is incremental versus the alternative. 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One annual consumption-equivalent receipt, no recurring wages."},{"people":20.840625000000003,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":30000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-6,"years":1,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":0.995,"independentShare":1,"delayYears":0.5,"discountRate":0.03,"sourceIds":["eo-kit","ndp","eo-income-method"],"rationale":"Judged nonpurchasing mailed cohort; actual incremental cash, not inventory value.","counterfactual":"Equivalent otherwise-purchased protection is excluded from added clinical access. Shipping is incremental versus the alternative. One annual consumption-equivalent receipt, no recurring wages."},{"people":31.260937499999997,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":30000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":0,"years":1,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":0.995,"independentShare":1,"delayYears":0.5,"discountRate":0.03,"sourceIds":["eo-kit","ndp","eo-income-method"],"rationale":"Judged nonpurchasing unmailed cohort; actual incremental cash, not inventory value.","counterfactual":"Equivalent otherwise-purchased protection is excluded from added clinical access. Shipping is incremental versus the alternative. One annual consumption-equivalent receipt, no recurring wages."}]},{"id":"response-unknown","label":"response unknown","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":null,"editionQalys":null,"assumptions":"{\"id\":\"response-unknown\",\"G\":10000,\"a\":0.65,\"c\":40,\"b\":0.45,\"q\":0.75,\"e\":0.007,\"k\":0.55,\"t\":0.35,\"d\":0.6,\"f\":0.12,\"m1\":0.08,\"m\":0.05,\"T\":20,\"u\":0.8,\"g\":0.995,\"delay\":0.5,\"discount\":0.03,\"h\":0,\"donorHarm\":0,\"stock\":15,\"unpaid\":8,\"ems\":500,\"purchaseShare\":0.05,\"purchaseCash\":20,\"shippingShare\":0.4,\"incrementalShippingCash\":6,\"incomeBefore\":30000,\"incomeIndependent\":1,\"commonAliveShare\":0,\"commonAliveIncomeDelta\":0,\"commonAliveIncomeBefore\":22000,\"commonAliveIndependent\":0}; coefficients are judgments, not measured effects. {\"health\":true,\"income\":true,\"response\":true}","parameters":{"id":"response-unknown","G":10000,"a":0.65,"c":40,"b":0.45,"q":0.75,"e":0.007,"k":0.55,"t":0.35,"d":0.6,"f":0.12,"m1":0.08,"m":0.05,"T":20,"u":0.8,"g":0.995,"delay":0.5,"discount":0.03,"h":0,"donorHarm":0,"stock":15,"unpaid":8,"ems":500,"purchaseShare":0.05,"purchaseCash":20,"shippingShare":0.4,"incrementalShippingCash":6,"incomeBefore":30000,"incomeIndependent":1,"commonAliveShare":0,"commonAliveIncomeDelta":0,"commonAliveIncomeBefore":22000,"commonAliveIndependent":0},"nativeOutputs":{"id":"response-unknown","parameters":{"id":"response-unknown","G":10000,"a":0.65,"c":40,"b":0.45,"q":0.75,"e":0.007,"k":0.55,"t":0.35,"d":0.6,"f":0.12,"m1":0.08,"m":0.05,"T":20,"u":0.8,"g":0.995,"delay":0.5,"discount":0.03,"h":0,"donorHarm":0,"stock":15,"unpaid":8,"ems":500,"purchaseShare":0.05,"purchaseCash":20,"shippingShare":0.4,"incrementalShippingCash":6,"incomeBefore":30000,"incomeIndependent":1,"commonAliveShare":0,"commonAliveIncomeDelta":0,"commonAliveIncomeBefore":22000,"commonAliveIndependent":0},"nominalOffers":null,"additionalOffers":null,"additionalDeliveredKits":null,"doses":null,"healthEligibleNonpurchaserKits":null,"uniqueCreditedAdditionalAdministrations":null,"additionalThreeDaySurvivors":null,"finiteQalyPerThreeDaySurvivorAtGift":7.580253013945189,"survivalAtHorizon":0.3471653143324827,"healthQalysUSA":null,"directHouseholdNetCashUSA":null,"householdPurchaseCashUSA":null,"householdIncrementalShippingCashUSA":null,"directHouseholdHealthyYearEquivalentUSA":null,"conditionalAliveCashUSA":null,"conditionalAliveHealthyYearEquivalentUSA":null,"resourceEquivalentUSA":null,"combinedEquivalentUSA":null,"grossInstitutionalEnvelopeUSD":null,"healthDonationPricePer10USD":null,"healthResourcePricePer10USD":null,"resourceDonationPricePer10USD":null,"combinedDonationPricePer10USD":null,"combinedResourcePricePer10USD":null,"unknown":{"health":true,"income":true,"response":true}},"incomeUnknown":true},{"id":"historical-beta-central","label":"Historical USA clinical-only estimate, retained for comparison","costUSD":100000,"allPopulationQalys":0.5740891517996344,"editionQalys":0.568348260281638,"assumptions":"Historical model, not current result. {\"G\":100000,\"a\":0.75,\"c\":50,\"b\":0.5,\"q\":0.8,\"e\":0.005,\"k\":0.5,\"t\":0.5,\"d\":0.5,\"f\":0.2,\"m1\":0.075,\"m\":0.04,\"T\":20,\"u\":0.75,\"g\":0.99,\"delay\":0.5,\"h\":0,\"stock\":0,\"unpaid\":10,\"recipientCash\":0,\"ems\":1000}","parameters":{"G":100000,"a":0.75,"c":50,"b":0.5,"q":0.8,"e":0.005,"k":0.5,"t":0.5,"d":0.5,"f":0.2,"m1":0.075,"m":0.04,"T":20,"u":0.75,"g":0.99,"delay":0.5,"h":0,"stock":0,"unpaid":10,"recipientCash":0,"ems":1000},"nativeOutputs":{"offered":1500,"additionalOffers":750,"delivered":600,"doses":1200,"additionalAdministrations":0.375,"additionalThreeDaySurvivors":0.07500000000000001,"discountedQalysPerAdditionalThreeDaySurvivor":7.654522023995123,"allPopulationQalys":0.5740891517996344,"editionQalys":0.568348260281638,"donorCostPerAdditionalDeliveredKit":166.66666666666666,"donorCostPerAdditionalDose":83.33333333333333,"donorCostPerAdditionalAdministration":266666.6666666667,"donorCostPerTenUsaQalys":1759484.5799377698,"nominalActivityResourceEnvelopeUSD":115375}}],"sensitivity":["Current conditional donor combined price$2,712,178; health-only$2,622,897 versus historical clinical-only$1,759,485. Crosswalk equivalents are not measured clinical QALYs.","Restoring old cost/opportunity/dedup together produces$5,830,531; fhalved$5,615,504. These expose judgment dependence, not posterior confidence intervals.","Zero incremental shipping yields$2,562,681 with unchanged health. Positive/negative cash, survival and independent harms remain separately inspectable.","Unknown health/income/response nulls combined price; true no-additionality is zero. Mathematical ceiling is not verified donor capacity."],"missingInputs":["Costed, currently unfunded capacity and the share of unrestricted next dollars allocated to added high-risk delivery.","Manufacturer/public/purchased inventory reconciliation by dose, package, expiry, remaining stock, restrictions and distribution channel.","Actual fulfillment completion, recipient shipping receipts, paid and unpaid labor, and current workload constraints.","Marginal recipient exposure, usable access and other available witnesses or EMS; linked unique scene and patient follow-up.","Additional survival probability versus no added response, subsequent mortality, utility, adverse effects and future net costs.","USA-resident outcomes separated from territorial and foreign attendee spillovers.","Reconciled 2022–24 program totals and 2022–23 net-asset roll-forwards; current management accounts, debt, restrictions and funding commitments.","Effects of education, test strips, stigma, referrals and other portfolio activity, including possible harms; no whole-organization lower bound is established.","Actual counterfactual household purchase, incremental shipping, disposable resources, always-alive cash changes and independence; finite judgments are not measurements."]},"sources":[{"id":"eo-99022","title":"2022 original Form 990, calendar year, Parts I, III, IX, X, XI and XII","publisher":"End Overdose / IRS, reproduced by ProPublica","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202340609349300739/IRS990","published":"2023-03-01","retrieved":"2026-10-02"},{"id":"eo-99023","title":"2023 original Form 990, calendar year, Parts I, III, IX, X, XI and XII","publisher":"End Overdose / IRS, reproduced by ProPublica","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202411169349302221/IRS990","published":"2024-04-25","retrieved":"2026-10-02"},{"id":"eo-99024","title":"2024 original Form 990, calendar year, Parts I, III, IX, X, XI and XII","publisher":"End Overdose / IRS, reproduced by ProPublica","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202530849349300213/IRS990","published":"2025-03-25","retrieved":"2026-10-02"},{"id":"eo-99023-o","title":"2023 original Form 990 Schedule O","publisher":"End Overdose / IRS, reproduced by ProPublica","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202411169349302221/IRS990ScheduleO","published":"2024-04-25","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"eo-99024-o","title":"2024 original Form 990 Schedule O","publisher":"End Overdose / IRS, reproduced by ProPublica","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202530849349300213/IRS990ScheduleO","published":"2025-03-25","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"eo-filings","title":"Available filing index; latest return located is calendar 2024","publisher":"ProPublica Nonprofit Explorer","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/830696963","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-02"},{"id":"eo-quarter","title":"Summer 2024 Impact Report, July–September, pages 4–8","publisher":"End Overdose","url":"https://cdn.sanity.io/files/03xshhuu/production/fc944226581fe8e9a80cd6d39aa74f59574d954e.pdf","published":"2024-10-01","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"eo-impact","title":"Impact report index","publisher":"End Overdose","url":"https://endoverdose.net/about/impact/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"eo-campaign","title":"August 2026 Overdose Awareness Month campaign","publisher":"End Overdose","url":"https://endoverdose.net/campaign/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-02"},{"id":"eo-kit","title":"Naloxone Kit; visible description and product structured data","publisher":"End Overdose","url":"https://store.endoverdose.net/products/nasal-nalonxone-kit","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-02"},{"id":"eo-donate","title":"Official donation checkout: receiving organization and program designations","publisher":"End Overdose / GoFundMe Pro","url":"https://donate.endoverdose.net/give/546264","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"eo-arkansas","title":"End Overdose Distributes Free Naloxone Boxes Throughout Arkansas","publisher":"End Overdose","url":"https://endoverdose.net/news/blog/end-overdose-distributes-free-naloxone-boxes-throughout-arkansas/","published":"2026-07-02","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"eo-bulk","title":"Arkansas bulk naloxone order, product units and fulfillment terms","publisher":"End Overdose","url":"https://endoverdose.net/bulk-order/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-02"},{"id":"eo-ors","title":"Nevada ORS Team Facilitates Partnership for Naloxone Distribution","publisher":"Overdose Response Strategy","url":"https://orsprogram.org/nevada-ors-team-facilitates-partnership-for-naloxone-distribution/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-02"},{"id":"eo-la-partner","title":"County announces End Overdose partnership at 2025 music and cultural festivals","publisher":"Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, issued through PR Newswire","url":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/los-angeles-county-department-of-public-health-partners-with-end-overdose-to-address-fentanyl-crisis-859515770.html","published":"2025-01-23","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"calrx-price","title":"Naloxone Savings; $19 twin-pack price effective January 1, 2026","publisher":"California CalRx","url":"https://calrx.ca.gov/naloxone/savings/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"ndp","title":"Naloxone Distribution Project FAQ, including April 2026 update","publisher":"California Department of Health Care Services","url":"https://www.dhcs.ca.gov/individuals/naloxone-distribution-project/ndp-frequently-asked-questions/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-02"},{"id":"naloxone-zang","title":"Evaluation of Strategies to Enhance Community-Based Naloxone Distribution Supported by an Opioid Settlement","publisher":"Zang et al. / JAMA Network Open","url":"https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2819204","published":"2024-05-30","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"naloxone-hcs","title":"Community-Based Cluster-Randomized Trial to Reduce Opioid Overdose Deaths; primary abstract in author institution repository","publisher":"HEALing Communities Study Consortium / NEJM; Weill Cornell Medicine","url":"https://vivo.weill.cornell.edu/display/pubid38884347","published":"2024-06-16","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"naloxone-festival","title":"Naloxone use, carriage and prior training in 227 Colorado festival attendees","publisher":"Piercey, Pince and Karoly / Journal of Addiction Medicine; PubMed","url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41430526/","published":"2025-12-23","retrieved":"2026-10-02"},{"id":"naloxone-rikers","title":"Witnessed overdoses and naloxone use among trained visitors to Rikers Island","publisher":"Huxley-Reicher et al. / Addictive Behaviors; PubMed","url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29175025/","published":"2017-11-16","retrieved":"2026-10-02"},{"id":"naloxone-ems-survival","title":"One year mortality of patients treated with naloxone for opioid overdose by EMS","publisher":"Weiner et al. / Substance Abuse; PubMed","url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32242763/","published":"2020-04-03","retrieved":"2026-10-02"},{"id":"naloxone-ed-survival","title":"One-Year Mortality after ED Treatment for Nonfatal Opioid Overdose","publisher":"Weiner et al. / Annals of Emergency Medicine; PubMed","url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31229387/","published":"2019-06-20","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"naloxone-king-survival","title":"Overdose and mortality after a nonfatal EMS-treated overdose in King County","publisher":"Hood et al. / Drug and Alcohol Dependence; PMC","url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10842336/","published":"2023-10-31","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"oud-utility","title":"Patient-reported health-state utilities in NIDA treatment-study data","publisher":"Quality of Life Research; author manuscript hosted by PMC","url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11452457/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"naloxone-harms","title":"Comparison of 8-mg and 4-mg intranasal naloxone in New York law enforcement","publisher":"Payne et al. / CDC MMWR","url":"https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/73/wr/mm7305a4.htm","published":"2024-02-08","retrieved":"2026-10-02"},{"id":"naloxone-expired","title":"Quality Assessment of Expired Naloxone Products from First-Responders' Supplies","publisher":"Research article / PubMed","url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30596290/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"naloxone-fda","title":"FDA shelf-life extension announcement for newly manufactured NARCAN 4-mg nasal spray","publisher":"US Food and Drug Administration","url":"https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-alerts-and-statements/fda-announces-shelf-life-extension-naloxone-nasal-spray","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"eo-income-method","title":"Health and income cost-effectiveness reference","publisher":"Coefficient Giving","url":"https://coefficientgiving.org/research/cost-effectiveness/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-30","dateNote":"Inherited verified reference crosswalk, not a new source retrieval in this recalibration."},{"id":"eo-ontario2026","title":"One-year mortality among opioid overdose survivors: Ontario cohort","publisher":"PubMed / original JAMA article","url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/42096192/","published":"2026-05-07","retrieved":"2026-10-02","dateNote":"Indexed abstract/metadata and primary researcher summary; Canadian prognosis stress, not USA causal coefficient."}]}