{"edition":"usa","organization":"Earthjustice","organizationId":"ein:94-1730465","boundaryVersion":"USA-50-states-DC-v1","updated":"2026-09-14","model":{"version":"usa-earthjustice-alpha-pm-partial-1","costScope":"Two years of full FY 2025 audited recipient resources, including all programs, administration, fundraising and donated services. Separate c4 excluded. Regulatory agency and corporate compliance spending disclosed but not included in recipient cost.","geographicAttribution":"Only domestic resident health in the EPA PM pathway is quantified, so g=1 by model scope. No overseas, territorial, biodiversity or global climate health credit is included. This is not an organization-wide USA allocation.","formula":"C=2*183685874. Y(L,start)=sum(i=0..L-1)1/1.03^(start+i). Q_USA=Q_all=D*m*q*Y*p*a*b-H. D=(2100+4500)/2=3300 central; the two EPA mortality studies are alternatives, not additive. q is discounted lifetime health per death including cessation lag to the exposure year; Y discounts exposure years to2026. Price=10*C/Q_USA when positive.","counterfactual":"Current 9µg/m3 standard, June 2026 defense victory and July 2026 designation order remain in baseline. L is the extra full-equivalent exposure protection secured by future implementation work, not all protection under the rule. p is coalition incremental chance of achieving that addition, with existing statutory duties and state/local litigation continuing.","attribution":"Earthjustice is one of several important legal contributors. a=.2 subjective share of incremental coalition contribution, not share of all rule benefits. b=.5 discounts reserves, existing support, fee recovery and replacement gifts. A successful future case does not establish these values retrospectively.","uncertainty":"Very-low-confidence partial expected-value assessment. Clinical mechanism is stronger than marginal policy attribution. The midpoint of two regulatory forecasts is judgment, not a posterior estimate; broad scenarios are not confidence intervals. Remaining recipient pathways can add benefits or harms, precluding a whole-recipient ranking from this number.","nativeOutcomes":"Legally effective implementation, additional emissions/exposure reductions, full-equivalent protected exposure years, adult deaths prevented and discounted lifetime QALYs. Court orders, case counts, acres and tonnes are not themselves QALYs.","inputs":[{"name":"C","value":367371748,"unit":"USD, two annual full recipient budgets","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Judgment extrapolation to two years at the observed annual recipient expense: 2×FY 2025 audited expense. Two-year support horizon is judgment; donated services included.","sourceIds":["ej-audit25"]},{"name":"D","value":3300,"unit":"modeled adult deaths avoided per 2032-equivalent protected year","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Midpoint of alternative EPA 2100 and 4500 estimates, not their sum or a pooled clinical estimate. Baseline assumes current 12/35 standard; identified controls for revised 9/35, not all possible attainment benefits.","sourceIds":["ej-pm-ria"]},{"name":"m","value":0.75,"unit":"clinical and exposure transport multiplier","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Allows uncertain composition, adherence, changing emissions and residual confounding; .3–1 scenarios. Not an EPA parameter.","sourceIds":["ej-pm-ria","ej-wu"]},{"name":"q","value":5,"unit":"QALYs per avoided adult death, discounted to exposure year","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Composite of remaining survival, health quality, competing mortality and cessation lag. Broad 1–10 range; not EPA VSL divided by a QALY price. An older-adult dominated benefit cannot be valued as a young person's full lifespan.","sourceIds":["ej-wu","ej-pm-ria"]},{"name":"L","value":1,"unit":"full-equivalent years of pollution protection conditional on incremental success","basis":"judgment","rationale":"One year of avoided delay or equivalent retained exposure reduction; favorable 3. Does not count an indefinite standard or July 2026 victory again.","sourceIds":["ej-pm-order"]},{"name":"start","value":6,"unit":"years from 2026 to first modeled exposure year","basis":"judgment","rationale":"2032 reference-year controls; later timing tested. Native benefits are not observed 2026 outcomes.","sourceIds":["ej-pm-ria"]},{"name":"r","value":0.03,"unit":"annual health discount rate","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Y discounts exposure timing. q already includes within-person lifetime and cessation-lag discounting.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"p","value":0.1,"unit":"incremental coalition probability of securing protection beyond baseline","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Subjective 10-percentage-point implementation contribution, not raw court win probability. Existing binding order and legal duties sharply constrain available additional credit.","sourceIds":["ej-pm-order","ej-pm-role"]},{"name":"a","value":0.2,"unit":"Earthjustice share of incremental coalition contribution","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Counsel with important technical/client capacity, but state/local plaintiffs, CATF, SELC and other groups can substitute. .05–.5 scenarios; no equal division or sole credit.","sourceIds":["ej-pm-role"]},{"name":"b","value":0.5,"unit":"additionality of recipient support","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Growth plans support capacity use, but reserve funding and replacement gifts can preserve existing commitments. .1–.8 scenarios; no measured marginal staffing-to-outcome response.","sourceIds":["ej-finances","ej-audit25"]},{"name":"g","value":1,"unit":"USA share of this quantified domestic branch","basis":"judgment","rationale":"The model intentionally includes only US resident effects in EPA domestic analysis. This is not a claim that all Earthjustice work or all global benefits are domestic.","sourceIds":["ej-pm-ria"]},{"name":"H","value":0,"unit":"domestic QALYs of adverse effects","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Provisional zero, with explicit net-harm case. Energy-cost/access effects, implementation displacement and litigation downside not measured.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"otherPathways","value":null,"unit":"net QALYs from all other recipient work","basis":"unknown","rationale":"MATS, chemicals, water, habitat, climate, other clean-air cases and nonfatal PM effects unpriced; avoid overlaps and policy-output conversions.","sourceIds":["ej-portfolio","ej-mats"]}],"scenarios":[{"id":"central","label":"Partial PM implementation central","costUSD":367371748,"allPopulationQalys":103.63867676460221,"editionQalys":103.63867676460221,"assumptions":"D=3300; m=0.75; q=5; L=1; p=0.1; a=0.2; b=0.5; g=1; H=0; start=6; Y=0.8374842566836542. Only domestic PM mortality branch quantified."},{"id":"favorable","label":"Strong additional implementation","costUSD":367371748,"allPopulationQalys":13175.919012641092,"editionQalys":13175.919012641092,"assumptions":"D=4500; m=1; q=10; L=3; p=0.3; a=0.5; b=0.8; g=1; H=0; start=6; Y=2.439985002340943. Only domestic PM mortality branch quantified."},{"id":"poor","label":"Weak implementation additionality","costUSD":367371748,"allPopulationQalys":0.02343895831924684,"editionQalys":0.02343895831924684,"assumptions":"D=2100; m=0.3; q=1; L=1; p=0.01; a=0.05; b=0.1; g=1; H=0; start=10; Y=0.7440939148967249. Only domestic PM mortality branch quantified."},{"id":"zero","label":"No further implementation benefit","costUSD":367371748,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"assumptions":"D=3300; m=0.75; q=5; L=1; p=0; a=0.2; b=0.5; g=1; H=0; start=6; Y=0.8374842566836542. Only domestic PM mortality branch quantified."},{"id":"adverse","label":"No benefit and illustrative policy downside","costUSD":367371748,"allPopulationQalys":-100,"editionQalys":-100,"assumptions":"D=3300; m=0.75; q=5; L=1; p=0; a=0.2; b=0.5; g=1; H=100; start=6; Y=0.8374842566836542. Only domestic PM mortality branch quantified."}],"sensitivity":["At $367,371,748 cost, $1 million/$100 thousand per 10 requires 3673.71748/36737.1748 net USA QALYs, versus 103.63868 centrally.","With q=5 and other central values, the $1 million threshold requires about 35.45 times the central product of protected years and incremental contribution. One favorable parameter alone need not achieve it.","Using only the 2100 or 4500 mortality alternatives changes central health by 2100/3300 or 4500/3300. These are not confidence bounds; uncertainty also includes model transport and exposure changes.","Using the three-year mean reduces cost about 7.8%. Excluding all donated services from latest expense reduces cost 9.15%, but omits real legal resources and public-service advertising; neither adjustment solves marginal attribution.","A delay from 2032 to 2036 reduces benefits by 1/1.03^4. q includes post-exposure cessation lag; do not count all modeled deaths as immediate.","All-population harm above 103.63868 QALYs erases the central partial benefit. Zero future implementation effect gives no finite positive price.","A portfolio sum must de-duplicate PM effects of MATS, power-plant, permitting and ambient-standard cases before adding them. Historic successes are not new-donation yield."],"missingInputs":["Prospective unfunded staffing/case plan and counterfactual use of reserves, fee recoveries and replacement donations.","Case-specific incremental implementation probability, affected exposure years and Earthjustice contribution beyond state and other counsel.","Updated emissions/compliance baseline under current policy, actual state plans, controls and corresponding clinical outcomes.","Mortality age/cause distribution and remaining quality-adjusted survival, including cessation lag, to replace q.","Net health effects of other recipient pathways, geographic attribution, overlaps and possible policy/energy-access harms."]},"sources":[{"id":"ej-audit25","title":"FY2025 and FY2024 audited financial statements","publisher":"BPM LLP / Earthjustice","url":"https://earthjustice.org/document/2025-audited-financials","published":"2025-12-02","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"ej-audit24","title":"FY2024 and FY2023 audited financial statements","publisher":"BPM LLP / Earthjustice","url":"https://earthjustice.org/document/2024-audited-financials","published":"2024-10-31","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"ej-finances","title":"Current financial report and staffing plans","publisher":"Earthjustice","url":"https://earthjustice.org/about/financial-statements","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"ej-portfolio","title":"Current litigation portfolio","publisher":"Earthjustice","url":"https://earthjustice.org/feature/trump-environment-lawsuits","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"ej-victories","title":"Current outcomes and historical cases","publisher":"Earthjustice","url":"https://earthjustice.org/our-work/victories","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"ej-pm-order","title":"Order compelling PM area designations","publisher":"US District Court, Northern District of California","url":"https://earthjustice.org/document/ruling-court-orders-epa-to-implement-national-soot-standard","published":"2026-07-17","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"ej-pm-role","title":"PM implementation litigation and counsel roles","publisher":"Earthjustice and partner coalition","url":"https://earthjustice.org/press/2026/court-orders-epa-to-implement-national-soot-standard","published":"2026-07-20","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"ej-pm-upheld","title":"D.C. Circuit upholds 2024 standard","publisher":"Earthjustice and partner coalition","url":"https://earthjustice.org/press/2026/court-upholds-life-saving-national-soot-air-quality-standard","published":"2026-06-26","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"ej-pm-ria","title":"2024 PM NAAQS final regulatory impact analysis, native health outcomes","publisher":"US Environmental Protection Agency","url":"https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2024-02/naaqs_pm_reconsideration_ria_final.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"ej-pm-status","title":"Current PM NAAQS","publisher":"US Environmental Protection Agency","url":"https://www.epa.gov/pm-pollution/national-ambient-air-quality-standards-naaqs-pm","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"ej-wu","title":"Long-term PM exposure and elderly mortality","publisher":"Wu et al. / Science Advances","url":"https://xiaowu.io/publication/wu2020evaluating/wu2020evaluating.pdf","published":"2020-07-17","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"ej-mats","title":"Challenge to repeal of 2024 MATS amendments","publisher":"Earthjustice and litigation coalition","url":"https://earthjustice.org/press/2026/coalition-sues-trump-epa-over-illegal-repeal-of-mercury-and-air-toxics-standards","published":"2026-03-30","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"ej-mats-epa","title":"Current mercury and air toxics standards, including 2026 repeal","publisher":"US Environmental Protection Agency","url":"https://www.epa.gov/stationary-sources-air-pollution/mercury-and-air-toxics-standards","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"}]}