{"edition":"usa","organization":"Center for Science in the Public Interest","organizationId":"org:center-for-science-in-the-public-interest","boundaryVersion":"USA-50-states-DC-v1","updated":"2026-09-14","model":{"version":"usa-cspi-sodium-partial-health-beta-v2","costScope":"Whole ordinary charitable-recipient gift. Five years of full FY2025 recipient expense at constant real scale; sodium is the only quantified health pathway. No restricted-project price, no affiliate double count, no historical victory credit. Additional external social costs remain unquantified.","geographicAttribution":"USA 50 states plus DC. g=.99 remains a judgmental national-coverage allowance, not a measured territorial allocation. The underlying clinical model covers ages30–84, so the discounted scale is not all-age measured health; no population multiplier fills missing age groups.","formula":"H=(2100000-700000)*(dm/565)*e*t/(1.03^L); S=fDurable+(1-fDurable)*(1-1.03^(-accelerationYears)); Qall(G)=G/(C*Y)*b*(p*a*H*S-h); Qusa=Qall*g; price10=10*G/Qusa only when Qusa>0. Central C=17926322,Y=5,dm=250,e=.5,t=.7,L=5,p=.2,a=.1,b=.5,g=.99,h=0,fDurable=1. Existing alpha values reproduced; additional timing scenarios vary S.","counterfactual":"Phase I-scale progress, government activity, private reformulation, and other advocates continue without this funding. Only a further 250 mg/day opportunity is considered; p is an incremental probability change attributable to the broader campaign rather than the unconditional chance FDA acts. b removes expenditure that would occur from reserves or replacement funding anyway.","attribution":"p=.2 is a subjective campaign-induced probability increment over five years; a=.1 allocates a tenth of that increment to charitable CSPI, excluding credit owed to its Action Fund, other advocates, researchers, officials, and manufacturers. The resulting p*a=.02 is not measured. Because all portfolio costs are charged, no additional sodium budget fraction is multiplied in; doing both would double-charge portfolio allocation.","uncertainty":"Retained judgmental sodium partial-health best guess, not a measured portfolio return. Durable change, policy acceleration, clinical transport and funding replacement are separate uncertainties. Central other-portfolio net health=0 is a judgment, not a proven lower bound. Missing observed marginal inputs alone do not force null.","nativeOutcomes":"Prospective policy response -> otherwise-unavailable sustained sodium reformulation -> consumed sodium -> blood pressure -> finite cardiovascular health. Success-case consumed change=250*.5=125mg/day; probability-weighted full-scale national change=125*.2*.1*.5=1.25mg/day before clinical transport. These are model expectations, not monitored outputs. No comments-to-QALYs shortcut.","inputs":[{"name":"C","value":17926322,"unit":"USD per recipient fiscal year","basis":"observed","rationale":"FY2025 Form 990 Part I/IX, all functional expenses; Part VIII direct-cost lines empty.","sourceIds":["cspi-99025"]},{"name":"Y","value":5,"unit":"years of full recipient costs","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Sustained advocacy horizon; not one annual budget assigned a full national reform.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"Qopt","value":2100000,"unit":"discounted QALYs over original 20-year simulation","basis":"observed","rationale":"Published simulated optimal scenario, not measured outcomes.","sourceIds":["sodium-us-model"]},{"name":"Qshort","value":700000,"unit":"discounted QALYs over original 20-year simulation","basis":"observed","rationale":"Published short-term-only scenario.","sourceIds":["sodium-us-model"]},{"name":"Sshort-minus-Sopt","value":565,"unit":"mg sodium/day","basis":"observed","rationale":"Reported 2036 medians 2789 and 2224; difference is an interpolation reference, not current intake.","sourceIds":["sodium-us-model"]},{"name":"deltaS","value":250,"unit":"mg sodium/day beyond assumed counterfactual","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Phase I target3000 minus Phase II2750; achievable further reduction is uncertain and the current baseline is not assumed empirically known.","sourceIds":["fda-sodium","fda-progress"]},{"name":"e","value":0.5,"unit":"fraction of incremental sodium opportunity implemented","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Discounts voluntary noncompliance, purchasing substitutions, and incomplete persistence; not fraction of food categories with any decrease.","sourceIds":["cspi-sodium-comment","fda-progress"]},{"name":"t","value":0.7,"unit":"clinical and future-horizon transport factor","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Old population, treatment trends, nonlinearity, different reformulation ramp, and rebasing to future benefits justify a broad discount.","sourceIds":["sodium-us-model","sodium-bp","ssass"]},{"name":"L","value":5,"unit":"additional years of benefit delay","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Five-year delay before the rebased already-discounted health stream; no claim of a final Phase II date. Original modeled clinical lag is not reapplied.","sourceIds":["fda-priorities26"]},{"name":"p","value":0.2,"unit":"incremental campaign probability of achieving modeled opportunity","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Subjective 20-percentage-point coalition contribution over five years relative to government/industry background action; broad 0–.5 scenarios.","sourceIds":["cspi-sodium-comment","fda-sodium"]},{"name":"a","value":0.1,"unit":"charitable CSPI share of coalition increment","basis":"judgment","rationale":"A tenth is a cautious opinion given sustained technical/legal work and many other actors; not a causal audit. Tested .01–.2.","sourceIds":["cspi-sodium-comment","cspi-99025","cspi-litigation-history"]},{"name":"b","value":0.5,"unit":"additional effort enabled per dollar","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Allows half to replace reserves, donors, or otherwise-funded work over five years; reserves and loss are observed, this response is not.","sourceIds":["cspi-audit25"]},{"name":"h","value":0,"unit":"net other-pathway QALYs lost per five-year effort","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Central assigns zero net non-sodium benefit or harm. Negative-outcome stress tests retain loss even if policy influence is zero.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"g","value":0.99,"unit":"USA share of credited sodium health","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Near-national US pathway with small geographic/coverage allowance; not an audited outcome-weighted share.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"marginal-resource-cost","value":null,"unit":"incremental public and industry USD","basis":"unknown","rationale":"Required for a current social-cost model; historical external implementation/savings estimates are not added as donor savings.","sourceIds":["sodium-us-model"]},{"name":"fDurable","value":1,"unit":"fraction of credited influence producing additional finite reform rather than timing only","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Central preserves alpha durable-change interpretation; timing-only and50:50 cases reveal dependence on that judgment.","sourceIds":["fda-sodium","cspi-petition23"]},{"name":"accelerationYears","value":3,"unit":"years earlier identical finite health stream in timing sensitivity","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Simple present-value shift approximation, not a rerun of population survival. Both streams have finite20-year duration; later counterfactual ends3years later.","sourceIds":[]}],"scenarios":[{"id":"central","label":"Sodium partial-health best guess; durable-change interpretation","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0.20866053659437464,"editionQalys":0.2065739312284309,"assumptions":"Judgment scenario, not a confidence bound or restricted purchase. Inputs {\"C\":17926322,\"dm\":250,\"e\":0.5,\"t\":0.7,\"L\":5,\"p\":0.2,\"a\":0.1,\"b\":0.5,\"h\":0,\"g\":0.99,\"f\":1,\"accel\":3}; H=187025.79838417712; timing multiplier=1. G=$10,000 and Y=5. Price=484088.1877269368. h is not multiplied by policy-success probability."},{"id":"favorable","label":"Favorable joint judgments","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":6.566659262529442,"editionQalys":6.500992669904147,"assumptions":"Judgment scenario, not a confidence bound or restricted purchase. Inputs {\"C\":17926322,\"dm\":350,\"e\":0.9,\"t\":1,\"L\":2,\"p\":0.5,\"a\":0.2,\"b\":0.8,\"h\":0,\"g\":0.99,\"f\":1,\"accel\":3}; H=735725.3025274082; timing multiplier=1. G=$10,000 and Y=5. Price=15382.266228808781. h is not multiplied by policy-success probability."},{"id":"poor","label":"Weak policy influence and implementation","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0.00006171168405278428,"editionQalys":0.00006109456721225645,"assumptions":"Judgment scenario, not a confidence bound or restricted purchase. Inputs {\"C\":17926322,\"dm\":100,\"e\":0.1,\"t\":0.3,\"L\":10,\"p\":0.05,\"a\":0.02,\"b\":0.1,\"h\":0,\"g\":0.99,\"f\":1,\"accel\":3}; H=5531.31759746238; timing multiplier=1. G=$10,000 and Y=5. Price=1636806749.9779024. h is not multiplied by policy-success probability."},{"id":"low-credit","label":"One-percent charitable share of coalition increment","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0.020866053659437462,"editionQalys":0.020657393122843086,"assumptions":"Judgment scenario, not a confidence bound or restricted purchase. Inputs {\"C\":17926322,\"dm\":250,\"e\":0.5,\"t\":0.7,\"L\":5,\"p\":0.2,\"a\":0.01,\"b\":0.5,\"h\":0,\"g\":0.99,\"f\":1,\"accel\":3}; H=187025.79838417712; timing multiplier=1. G=$10,000 and Y=5. Price=4840881.87726937. h is not multiplied by policy-success probability."},{"id":"donor-substitution","label":"Only10% additional effort","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0.04173210731887493,"editionQalys":0.04131478624568618,"assumptions":"Judgment scenario, not a confidence bound or restricted purchase. Inputs {\"C\":17926322,\"dm\":250,\"e\":0.5,\"t\":0.7,\"L\":5,\"p\":0.2,\"a\":0.1,\"b\":0.1,\"h\":0,\"g\":0.99,\"f\":1,\"accel\":3}; H=187025.79838417712; timing multiplier=1. G=$10,000 and Y=5. Price=2420440.9386346843. h is not multiplied by policy-success probability."},{"id":"timing-only","label":"Three-year acceleration, no durable extra reform","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0.017706586893877975,"editionQalys":0.017529521024939196,"assumptions":"Judgment scenario, not a confidence bound or restricted purchase. Inputs {\"C\":17926322,\"dm\":250,\"e\":0.5,\"t\":0.7,\"L\":5,\"p\":0.2,\"a\":0.1,\"b\":0.5,\"h\":0,\"g\":0.99,\"f\":0,\"accel\":3}; H=187025.79838417712; timing multiplier=0.0848583406468405. G=$10,000 and Y=5. Price=5704662.429608334. h is not multiplied by policy-success probability."},{"id":"mixed-influence","label":"Half durable change, half three-year acceleration","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0.11318356174412632,"editionQalys":0.11205172612668506,"assumptions":"Judgment scenario, not a confidence bound or restricted purchase. Inputs {\"C\":17926322,\"dm\":250,\"e\":0.5,\"t\":0.7,\"L\":5,\"p\":0.2,\"a\":0.1,\"b\":0.5,\"h\":0,\"g\":0.99,\"f\":0.5,\"accel\":3}; H=187025.79838417712; timing multiplier=0.5424291703234203. G=$10,000 and Y=5. Price=892444.975697568. h is not multiplied by policy-success probability."},{"id":"forward-cost-uncertain","label":"Unaudited scope-uncertain FY26 expense sensitivity","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0.18587166545188674,"editionQalys":0.18401294879736788,"assumptions":"Judgment scenario, not a confidence bound or restricted purchase. Inputs {\"C\":20124186,\"dm\":250,\"e\":0.5,\"t\":0.7,\"L\":5,\"p\":0.2,\"a\":0.1,\"b\":0.5,\"h\":0,\"g\":0.99,\"f\":1,\"accel\":3}; H=187025.79838417712; timing multiplier=1. G=$10,000 and Y=5. Price=543440.0168768471. h is not multiplied by policy-success probability."},{"id":"no-influence","label":"No incremental policy influence","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"assumptions":"Judgment scenario, not a confidence bound or restricted purchase. Inputs {\"C\":17926322,\"dm\":250,\"e\":0.5,\"t\":0.7,\"L\":5,\"p\":0,\"a\":0.1,\"b\":0.5,\"h\":0,\"g\":0.99,\"f\":1,\"accel\":3}; H=187025.79838417712; timing multiplier=1. G=$10,000 and Y=5. Price=not defined for nonpositive health. h is not multiplied by policy-success probability."},{"id":"downside","label":"No sodium gain plus adverse portfolio effect","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":-0.005578389141955612,"editionQalys":-0.005522605250536055,"assumptions":"Judgment scenario, not a confidence bound or restricted purchase. Inputs {\"C\":17926322,\"dm\":250,\"e\":0.5,\"t\":0.7,\"L\":5,\"p\":0,\"a\":0.1,\"b\":0.5,\"h\":100,\"g\":0.99,\"f\":1,\"accel\":3}; H=187025.79838417712; timing multiplier=1. G=$10,000 and Y=5. Price=not defined for nonpositive health. h is not multiplied by policy-success probability."},{"id":"portfolio-harm","label":"Central sodium gain offset by1000QALY other-portfolio loss","costUSD":10000,"allPopulationQalys":0.15287664517481853,"editionQalys":0.15134787872307034,"assumptions":"Judgment scenario, not a confidence bound or restricted purchase. Inputs {\"C\":17926322,\"dm\":250,\"e\":0.5,\"t\":0.7,\"L\":5,\"p\":0.2,\"a\":0.1,\"b\":0.5,\"h\":1000,\"g\":0.99,\"f\":1,\"accel\":3}; H=187025.79838417712; timing multiplier=1. G=$10,000 and Y=5. Price=660729.4455905495. h is not multiplied by policy-success probability."}],"sensitivity":["Central484088.19; timing-only5704662.43; half-durable mixture892444.98 dollars per10USAQALYs. The timing contrast assumes identical finite health streams shifted3years; it is not a new disease simulation.","Five full annual recipient budgets require896.3161netUSAQALYs to meet1million dollars per10, or8963.161 to meet100000. Central netUSAhealth is1851.5554.","Central effective p*a=.02. At b=.5 and g=.99, about .00968 durable effective attribution is required for1million dollars per10. If all influence is only3year acceleration, the requirement is about11.4percentage points instead.","A net other-portfolio loss of3740.516QALYs per full5year effort would erase central sodium gain before funding/geographic scaling. Zero-other-health is not a lower-bound claim.","Changing costs to the unverified FY26 impact-report scope increases price by about12.3%; it does not establish a current funding gap. The retained original FY25 tax/audit cost difference is only0.055%.","The original clinical-model uncertainty does not contain CSPI attribution, donation additionality, policy timing or whole-portfolio effects. Do not display it as a charity confidence interval."],"missingInputs":["A donor-contingent sodium work package with budget, timing, reserve policy and replacement-funder counterfactual.","Whether the work changes eventual strength/compliance or only advances otherwise-identical reform, and by how long.","Sales-weighted consumed sodium and a current clinical model with explicit implementation ramps and survival.","Charity-versus-Action-Fund allocation of prospective work, external implementation costs and non-overlapping other-portfolio health.","Explanation of the9781dollar tax/audit expense difference and unrecognized in-kind resources; this small residual does not dominate the health model."]},"sources":[{"id":"cspi-audit25","title":"FY2025 consolidated audit and recipient-level consolidating statements","publisher":"CSPI / Calibre CPA Group","url":"https://www.cspi.org/sites/default/files/2026-04/CSPI%20-%20FS%20FY25.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"cspi-99025","title":"Form 990, fiscal year ended June 30, 2025","publisher":"CSPI / Internal Revenue Service","url":"https://www.cspi.org/sites/default/files/2026-05/2025_Form%20990_TAX%20RETURN_PUBLIC%20DISCLOSURE.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"cspi-99024","title":"Form 990, fiscal year ended June 30, 2024","publisher":"CSPI / Internal Revenue Service via ProPublica","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202501159349301860/IRS990","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"cspi-99023","title":"Form 990, fiscal year ended June 30, 2023","publisher":"CSPI / Internal Revenue Service via ProPublica","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202411309349303056/IRS990","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"cspi-impact26","title":"2026 Impact Report","publisher":"CSPI","url":"https://www.cspi.org/sites/default/files/2026-05/CSPI_2026AnnualReport_online%20FINAL.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"cspi-sodium-comment","title":"Comments on FDA Phase II voluntary sodium targets","publisher":"CSPI","url":"https://www.cspi.org/sites/default/files/2025-07/CSPI%20FDA%20sodium%20reduction%20comment%20011325_final.pdf","published":"2025-01-13","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"fda-sodium","title":"Sodium reduction in the food supply: Phase I and draft Phase II","publisher":"FDA","url":"https://www.fda.gov/food/nutrition-food-labeling-and-critical-foods/sodium-reduction-food-supply","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"fda-progress","title":"2010–2022 preliminary sodium assessment","publisher":"FDA","url":"https://www.fda.gov/food/nutrition-food-labeling-and-critical-foods/sodium-reduction-us-food-supply-2010-2022-preliminary-assessment-progress","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"fda-priorities26","title":"Human Foods Program 2026 priority deliverables","publisher":"FDA","url":"https://www.fda.gov/about-fda/human-foods-program/human-foods-program-2026-priority-deliverables","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"sodium-us-model","title":"US FDA voluntary sodium reformulation microsimulation","publisher":"Pearson-Stuttard, Kypridemos et al. / PLOS Medicine","url":"https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1002551","published":"2018-04-10","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"sodium-bp","title":"Effect of dose and duration of sodium reduction on blood pressure: randomized-trial meta-analysis","publisher":"Huang et al. / BMJ","url":"https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m315","published":"2020-02-25","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"ssass","title":"Effect of salt substitution on cardiovascular events and death","publisher":"Neal et al. / New England Journal of Medicine","url":"https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2105675","published":"2021-08-29","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"cspi-litigation-history","title":"CSPI v. FDA: sodium-petition litigation","publisher":"Public Citizen, counsel in the case","url":"https://www.citizen.org/litigation/center-for-science-in-the-public-interest-v-food-and-drug-administration/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"cspi-giving","title":"Official homepage donation link","publisher":"CSPI","url":"https://www.cspi.org/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"cspi-petition23","title":"Citizen petition requesting long-term sodium targets, monitoring and public database","url":"https://www.cspi.org/sites/default/files/2023-04/CSPI%20Sodium%20Petition%2004-06-2023.pdf","publisher":"CSPI","published":"2023-04-06","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"cspi-strategy","title":"2025–2030 strategic plan","url":"https://www.cspi.org/page/2025-2030-strategic-plan","publisher":"CSPI","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"cspi-accountability","title":"Current original-accountability document index","url":"https://www.cspi.org/about/accountability","publisher":"CSPI","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"cspi-bmj-original","title":"Randomized dietary sodium/BP meta-analysis, original PDF","url":"https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/368/bmj.m315.full.pdf","publisher":"Huang and colleagues / BMJ","published":"2020-02-25","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"cspi-jama25","title":"Appraising the FDA’s Sodium Reduction Efforts","url":"https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2831903","publisher":"Musicus and colleagues / JAMA","published":"2025-03-24","retrieved":"2026-09-14"}]}