{"edition":"usa","organization":"Center for Environmental Health","organizationId":"org:center-for-environmental-health","boundaryVersion":"USA-50-states-DC-v1","updated":"2026-09-14","model":{"version":"usa-ceh-judgment-receipt-acceleration-v2","costScope":"Full annual recipient expense on comparable accrual Form990 basis, all programs and support including investment fees; no subtraction of settlement revenue. External legal, corporate compliance and public enforcement resources require separate social-cost analysis.","geographicAttribution":"USA50states+DC resident outcomes only. California legal scope can generate nationwide manufacturing spillovers but does not establish their realized extent. Each product/site pathway needs outcome-weighted resident allocation; 7% retail market is not g.","formula":"C=4045100 full annual recipient cost. E=N*dp*a*b*e*t additional exposure-reduced worker-years; Qall=E*(p*k-h)/1.03; QUSA=Qall*g. N prospective handling-worker cohort, dp probability of earlier actual reformulation/uptake versus existing commitments, a CEH contribution conditional on coalition change, b funding response, e actual compliance/use, t acceleration years. p probability of clinically meaningful dose-related benefit; k conditional one-year QALY area per reduced worker-year; h expected replacement/disruption burden. No benefits after modeled acceleration; no lifetime disease multiplier or credit for historic agreements.","counterfactual":"d0 is exposure with existing laws, supplier plans, competitors, consumer pressure and other enforcement but without the incremental supported CEH work. N is unique users/worker-years, not market share times population. Already committed reformulation receives no automatic marginal credit.","attribution":"a separates CEH's contribution from public agencies, partner groups, litigation counsel and manufacturers; b adjusts donation replacement by legal recoveries, reserves, grants and other donors. Court settlement may be strong evidence of a mechanism without identifying the incremental donor effect.","uncertainty":"This is an extremely uncertain but genuine best-judgment partial-health estimate. No primary study identifies a BPS-to-QALY slope: p and k explicitly encode a small clinical-benefit prior, and harm can dominate. Wider or zero priors are reasonable. The estimate is not a statistically calibrated expectation, safety certification or measured CEH effect.","nativeOutcomes":"The prospective cohort and counterfactual factors imply 250 additional exposure-reduced worker-years before geography, not100000beneficiaries directly credited. Expected net health-area prior p*k-h=.00008 QALY per worker-year before3percent discount; no lifetime extension.","inputs":[{"name":"C","value":4045100,"unit":"USD annual full recipient expense","basis":"observed","rationale":"2024 Form990 PartIX includes investment management fees and no netted event/COGS cost restoration required.","sourceIds":["ceh-99024"]},{"name":"agreements2024","value":33,"unit":"companies with agreements","basis":"observed","rationale":"Annual report count; heterogeneous legal outputs, not patient outcomes.","sourceIds":["ceh-annual24"]},{"name":"products2024","value":315,"unit":"products tested, rounded lower reported count","basis":"observed","rationale":"315-plus new/active-case product tests; not units sold or exposures reduced.","sourceIds":["ceh-annual24","ceh-99024"]},{"name":"receiptCompanies2026","value":163,"unit":"companies in announced settlement group","basis":"observed","rationale":"Self-reported current output; not annualized throughput or unique health beneficiaries.","sourceIds":["ceh-receipts26"]},{"name":"receipt_N","value":100000,"unit":"see formula","basis":"judgment","rationale":"100000prospective frequent-handler workers is an order-of-magnitude planning cohort, not7percent of population or a measured beneficiary count. Test10000–1000000.","sourceIds":["ceh-receipts26","ceh-domtar-judgment26","ceh-cashiers"]},{"name":"receipt_dp","value":0.1,"unit":"see formula","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Only.1probability of a meaningful acceleration beyond already committed transition; not probability the existing judgment exists.","sourceIds":["ceh-receipts26","ceh-domtar-judgment26","ceh-cashiers"]},{"name":"receipt_a","value":0.25,"unit":"see formula","basis":"judgment","rationale":"CEH.25contribution when coalition-level implementation changes; dp itself is coalition-level, avoiding duplicate net attribution.","sourceIds":["ceh-receipts26","ceh-domtar-judgment26","ceh-cashiers"]},{"name":"receipt_b","value":0.5,"unit":"see formula","basis":"judgment","rationale":".5marginal responsiveness after settlement recoveries, reserves and donors.","sourceIds":["ceh-receipts26","ceh-domtar-judgment26","ceh-cashiers"]},{"name":"receipt_e","value":0.8,"unit":"see formula","basis":"judgment","rationale":".8actual uptake/compliance conditional on change, not signed agreement count.","sourceIds":["ceh-receipts26","ceh-domtar-judgment26","ceh-cashiers"]},{"name":"receipt_t","value":0.25,"unit":"see formula","basis":"judgment","rationale":".25year maximum current-transition acceleration, roughly the remaining2026quarter; no repeated annual rollout credit.","sourceIds":["ceh-receipts26","ceh-domtar-judgment26","ceh-cashiers"]},{"name":"receipt_g","value":0.95,"unit":"see formula","basis":"judgment","rationale":".95USAresident fraction in a hypothetical worker cohort, not measured nationwide spillover from California-only terms.","sourceIds":["ceh-receipts26","ceh-domtar-judgment26","ceh-cashiers"]},{"name":"receipt_p","value":0.2,"unit":"see formula","basis":"judgment","rationale":".2subjective probability that this exposure reduction produces clinically meaningful health benefit. Studies establish exposure, not clinical effect; most prior mass allows no such benefit.","sourceIds":["ceh-receipts26","ceh-domtar-judgment26","ceh-cashiers"]},{"name":"receipt_k","value":0.0005,"unit":"see formula","basis":"judgment","rationale":".0005conditional QALY per reduced worker-year, about4.4quality-adjusted hours. An explicitly weak health-area prior, not a measured endocrine disease dose-response or derived warning threshold. Test.0001–.002.","sourceIds":["ceh-receipts26","ceh-domtar-judgment26","ceh-cashiers"]},{"name":"receipt_h","value":0.00002,"unit":"see formula","basis":"judgment","rationale":".00002expected QALY burden per changed worker-year from substitute/disruption risk, about10.5quality-adjusted minutes; normative allowance, not measured harm.","sourceIds":["ceh-receipts26","ceh-domtar-judgment26","ceh-cashiers"]}],"scenarios":[{"id":"central","label":"Best estimate — explicit partial-health judgment","costUSD":4045100,"allPopulationQalys":0.019417475728155338,"editionQalys":0.01844660194174757,"assumptions":"{\"N\":100000,\"dp\":0.1,\"a\":0.25,\"b\":0.5,\"e\":0.8,\"t\":0.25,\"g\":0.95,\"p\":0.2,\"k\":0.0005,\"h\":0.00002}. Finite prospective judgment, not observed throughput or confidence limits."},{"id":"low","label":"Weak joint judgment stress","costUSD":4045100,"allPopulationQalys":4.854368932038835e-7,"editionQalys":4.611650485436893e-7,"assumptions":"{\"N\":10000,\"dp\":0.02,\"a\":0.1,\"b\":0.1,\"e\":0.5,\"t\":0.1,\"g\":0.95,\"p\":0.05,\"k\":0.0001,\"h\":0}. Finite prospective judgment, not observed throughput or confidence limits."},{"id":"high","label":"Favorable joint judgment stress","costUSD":4045100,"allPopulationQalys":30.998938106796114,"editionQalys":30.688948725728153,"assumptions":"{\"N\":1000000,\"dp\":0.3,\"a\":0.5,\"b\":0.75,\"e\":0.95,\"t\":0.25,\"g\":0.99,\"p\":0.6,\"k\":0.002,\"h\":0.000005}. Finite prospective judgment, not observed throughput or confidence limits."},{"id":"zero","label":"No additional net health","costUSD":4045100,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"assumptions":"No incremental implementation or no clinical benefit; no incremental harm."},{"id":"adverse","label":"Illustrative net health loss","costUSD":4045100,"allPopulationQalys":-1,"editionQalys":-1,"assumptions":"One net USA QALY lost through disruption, displaced care or adverse substitution; stress test, not an observed estimate."},{"id":"portfolio-unknown","label":"Remaining portfolio health unpriced","costUSD":4045100,"allPopulationQalys":null,"editionQalys":null,"assumptions":"Other non-overlapping pathways could add or subtract health; no invented portfolio uplift."}],"sensitivity":["At 10,000 / 100,000 / 1,000,000 net additional USA worker-years, k required for $1 million per 10 is .0040451 / .00040451 / .000040451; multiply by ten for $100 thousand per 10.","If only 10% of a gross exposure cohort is additional after donor, manufacturer and partner counterfactuals, required per-worker health gain rises tenfold.","Using 2022–24 mean expense instead of latest annual expense raises both frontier requirements by about 20.4%.","Any positive net harm H adds one-for-one to required USA QALYs. Substitution is not assumed harmless merely because a listed chemical disappears.","Illustrative dermatitis branch: at .02 QALY per prevented episode (judgment, not measured here), 2,023 / 20,226 net additional USA episodes would be needed for $1 million / $100 thousand per 10; chromium-regulation evidence does not establish those episode counts.","Receipt transition expected by Dec2026 limits the defensible acceleration horizon; post-transition monitoring must show prevented relapse/noncompliance or new cases rather than reuse the original historic win."],"missingInputs":["Verified current enforcement/implementation portfolio and next-dollar spending, with fee-recovery and donor replacement.","Clinical dose-response and QALY consequences for actual receipt BPS/substitute exposures; alternatively a complete validated lead, chromium or pollution-remediation pathway.","Incremental quantities sold/used, worker/consumer exposures and duration versus existing supplier/legal changes.","Outcome-weighted USA share, repeated users and cross-chemical/outcome double counting; net replacement and social-resource harms.","Current compliance and post-reformulation exposure evidence. Court entry on August 11, 2026 is verified; implementation and actual nationwide spillovers are not."]},"sources":[{"id":"ceh-99024","title":"2024 original Form 990, Parts I, III, VIII–XII","publisher":"Center for Environmental Health / IRS, hosted by ProPublica","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/943251981/202542259349303204/full","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"ceh-99023","title":"2023 original Form 990","publisher":"Center for Environmental Health / IRS, hosted by ProPublica","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/943251981/202423199349315237/full","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"ceh-99022","title":"2022 original Form 990","publisher":"Center for Environmental Health / IRS, hosted by ProPublica","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/943251981/202313199349312596/full","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"ceh-audit23","title":"2023 audited financial statements with 2022 comparatives","publisher":"Center for Environmental Health / Crosby & Kaneda","url":"https://ceh.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/CtrEnviroHealth-23-FinalFS.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"ceh-finances","title":"Financial disclosure index","publisher":"Center for Environmental Health","url":"https://ceh.org/about/financials/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"ceh-annual24","title":"2024 annual report","publisher":"Center for Environmental Health","url":"https://ceh.org/about/ceh-2024-annual-report/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"ceh-receipts26","title":"Receipt-paper settlement announcement","publisher":"Center for Environmental Health","url":"https://ceh.org/receipts-are-about-to-get-safer-how-ceh-got-one-toxic-phenol-after-another-out-of-receipts/","published":"2026-08-19","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"ceh-domtar26","title":"Corrected proposed amended consent judgment, New Receiptco Opco (Domtar), sections 1–4","publisher":"California DOJ settlement registry / parties to CGC-25-623997","url":"https://oag.ca.gov/system/files/prop65/settlements/2025-01392S8058.pdf","published":"2026-07-15","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"ceh-case26","title":"Prop65 notice 2025-01392, settlement registry","publisher":"California Department of Justice","url":"https://oag.ca.gov/node/602156","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"ceh-nhanes","title":"Trends in NHANES Biomonitored Exposures following Proposition 65","publisher":"Knox et al. / Environmental Health Perspectives","url":"https://escholarship.org/content/qt3r4691xq/qt3r4691xq.pdf","published":"2024-10-21","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"ceh-cashiers","title":"Bisphenol A, Bisphenol S, and BPSIP in Urine and Blood of Cashiers","publisher":"Thayer et al. / Environmental Health Perspectives","url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26309242/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"ceh-niosh","title":"Receipt-handling exposure research final report","publisher":"NIOSH-funded research / CDC Stacks","url":"https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/218609/cdc_218609_DS1.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"ceh-chromium","title":"Trends in Contact Allergy to Chromium Following the 2015 EU Leather Regulation","publisher":"Kursawe Larsen et al. / Contact Dermatitis","url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/cod.70045","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"ceh-domtar-judgment26","title":"Filed amended consent judgment, New Receiptco Opco (Domtar), CGC-25-623997","publisher":"San Francisco Superior Court / California DOJ","url":"https://oag.ca.gov/system/files/prop65/judgments/2025-01392J5988.pdf","published":"2026-08-11","retrieved":"2026-09-14"}]}