{"edition":"usa","organization":"1Day Sooner","organizationId":"ein:85-1103820","boundaryVersion":"USA-50-states-DC-v1","updated":"2026-09-30","display":{"metric":{"id":"daly-equivalent","years":1,"label":"DALY","priceLabel":"$ / DALY"},"priceUSD":895037.3608839677,"canonicalPriceUSDPerTenEquivalentYears":8950373.608839678,"conversion":"display only; QALYs and income equivalents are not measured clinical DALYs"},"listDisplay":{"metric":{"id":"daly-equivalent","years":1,"label":"DALY","priceLabel":"$ / DALY"},"priceUSD":895037.3608839677,"canonicalPriceUSDPerTenEquivalentYears":8950373.608839678,"conversion":"display only; QALYs and income equivalents are not measured clinical DALYs"},"model":{"version":"usa-1day-calibrated-20260930-income","costScope":"Latest original 2024 annual charitable-entity expense, charged once as an annual-work comparator, not a current marginal gift offer. Income resource savings net modeled implementation/production costs; unmeasured external health-system and public costs remain limitations.","geographicAttribution":"40% of conditional patient benefit attributed to U.S. residents; not a measured geography share. Income uses only net gains during U.S. residence or U.S. consumer/owner incidence; geography adjustments in native savings and recipient cohorts are not applied twice.","formula":"patients*annualQalyGain*earlierYears*reformProbability*approvalProbability*incrementalBenefitProbability*organizationAttribution*fundingAdditionality*usShare/(1+discountRate)^delayYears; dollars per better life = 10 × annual cost / discounted U.S. QALYs; annual-cost fundingAdditionality=1; combined price=10*annualCostUSD/(U.S. health QALYs + sum .5*people*ln(1+gain/baseline)*causalShare*editionShare*independentShare*sum annual discount weights).","counterfactual":"Other advocates and regulators may enact the same reform; existing funders may support the same work and many affected drug candidates fail.","attribution":"Annual-work causal contribution and implementation probability apply once to each pathway. FundingAdditionality=1 for the annual-cost central comparison; old marginal-funding factors remain sensitivities only. Do not credit future gifts with past achievements or count collaborative wins twice.","uncertainty":"Central/low/high are transparent joint hypotheses, not posterior estimates or confidence intervals. Distinct conditionals are logically meaningful but no source identifies their product. Show undiscounted conditional benefits and total causal share so compounded skepticism is visible. Do not multiply portfolio scale by an invented count. No universal GDP-to-income conversion. Low stress case has implementation cost exceeding saved research resources. Staff/CRO wages lost are not automatically social savings; require labor reassigned productively or subtract lost income. Avoid lower compensation framed as efficiency. Quality losses, privacy and participant harm belong in signed health/economic harm scenarios.","nativeOutcomes":"Policy work and data reuse could reduce the resources needed for reliable trials, including failed products, alongside earlier useful treatment. The affected trials and savings are hypotheses, not measured program returns.","inputs":[{"name":"patients","value":100000,"unit":"people","basis":"judgment","rationale":"One candidate-equivalent reaching this many recipients if useful treatment is delivered. Retained conditional scale prior, not an observed beneficiary count or a verified number of affected candidates.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"annualQalyGain","value":0.1,"unit":"QALYs/person-year","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Annual incremental health gain conditional on useful treatment. This does not already average ineffective approved products; the separate incremental-benefit probability does that.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"earlierYears","value":0.25,"unit":"years","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Effective-care or generation acceleration relative to the counterfactual, not time saved on an administrative step. Revised timing judgment; no measured org-specific lead.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"reformProbability","value":0.25,"unit":"fraction","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Probability of an additional useful operational policy change from the modeled work. Does not credit a new gift with already enacted reforms; judgment, not measured causal probability.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"approvalProbability","value":0.079,"unit":"fraction","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Historical Phase-I-to-approval likelihood of 7.9% in BIO/Informa/QLS 2011–2020. Used as an analogical prior, not an organization-specific rate; disease and modality mix can differ.","sourceIds":["bio-2011-2020"]},{"name":"incrementalBenefitProbability","value":0.5,"unit":"fraction","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Probability of useful additional care conditional on approval, distinct from regulatory approval and from the conditional magnitude of benefit. Judgment, not a measured share.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"organizationAttribution","value":0.15,"unit":"fraction","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Incremental organizational contribution within a collaborative policy ecosystem, conditional on useful reform. Judgment; overlapping advocates are not separate independent wins.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"fundingAdditionality","value":1,"unit":"fraction","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Annual-work comparator: no extra donor haircut on full annual expense. Prior factor remains sensitivity, not a measured marginal offer.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"usShare","value":0.4,"unit":"fraction","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Residence share of modeled health beneficiaries, not headquarters or spending share. Judgment; no global benefit is relabeled as U.S. benefit.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"delayYears","value":10.5,"unit":"years","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Time to realization, not duration of the benefit. Clinical central uses the BIO historical 10.5-year Phase-I-to-approval average as a proxy; energy uses an explicit ten-year construction/rollout judgment.","sourceIds":["bio-2011-2020"]},{"name":"discountRate","value":0.03,"unit":"fraction","basis":"judgment","rationale":"3% annual discount convention; judgment, not an observed organizational performance parameter.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"costUSD","value":2424138,"unit":"USD/year","basis":"observed","rationale":"Latest inspected original 2024 charity expense, used as an annual accounting comparator; not a current marginal funding offer.","sourceIds":["day-990-2024"]},{"name":"Annual-cost versus marginal-gift boundary","value":1,"unit":"fundingAdditionality factor","basis":"judgment","sourceIds":[],"rationale":"Full annual expenses estimate annual-work contribution, not return from an extra donation. Unknown marginal funding capacity remains a reservation; old haircuts retained only as sensitivities."},{"name":"Income pathway central","value":"[{\"editionShare\":1,\"independentShare\":1,\"discountRate\":0.03,\"people\":10000,\"annualIncomeBeforeUSD\":100000,\"annualIncomeGainUSD\":950,\"years\":1,\"delayYears\":3,\"causalFactors\":{\"implementationProbability\":0.25,\"organizationAttribution\":0.15,\"fundingAdditionality\":1},\"causalShare\":0.0375}]","unit":"people, real USD, years and conditional causal factors","basis":"judgment","sourceIds":["income-cg","income-evidence-1","income-evidence-2","income-evidence-3","income-evidence-4"],"rationale":"Central 20 trial-equivalents at illustrative $20M direct cost, 10% avoidable cost => $40M gross; subtract $2M extra challenge, dossier, regulator and participant-resource costs => $38M conditional net real-resource savings. Allocate 50% to U.S. incidence, then only 50% as net disposable income among owners/payers (other resources reinvested or offset losses): $9.5M across 10,000 people, gain $950/person, baseline $100k. Baseline reflects affluent owners/payers, not treating profit gains as $50k-average households. All counts, savings percentages, costs and incidence are judgments; $20M uses historical order of magnitude without pretending inflation precision. Native savings: {\"trials\":20,\"costPerTrialUSD\":20000000,\"savingShare\":0.1,\"incrementalResourceCostUSD\":2000000,\"netResourceUSD\":38000000,\"usIncidenceShare\":0.5,\"netDisposableIncidenceShare\":0.5,\"disposableGainUSD\":9500000}"},{"name":"Income pathway low","value":"[{\"editionShare\":1,\"independentShare\":1,\"discountRate\":0.03,\"people\":1000,\"annualIncomeBeforeUSD\":100000,\"annualIncomeGainUSD\":-5,\"years\":1,\"delayYears\":5,\"causalFactors\":{\"implementationProbability\":0.1,\"organizationAttribution\":0.05,\"fundingAdditionality\":1},\"causalShare\":0.005000000000000001}]","unit":"people, real USD, years and conditional causal factors","basis":"judgment","sourceIds":["income-cg","income-evidence-1","income-evidence-2","income-evidence-3","income-evidence-4"],"rationale":"Central 20 trial-equivalents at illustrative $20M direct cost, 10% avoidable cost => $40M gross; subtract $2M extra challenge, dossier, regulator and participant-resource costs => $38M conditional net real-resource savings. Allocate 50% to U.S. incidence, then only 50% as net disposable income among owners/payers (other resources reinvested or offset losses): $9.5M across 10,000 people, gain $950/person, baseline $100k. Baseline reflects affluent owners/payers, not treating profit gains as $50k-average households. All counts, savings percentages, costs and incidence are judgments; $20M uses historical order of magnitude without pretending inflation precision. Native savings: {\"trials\":1,\"costPerTrialUSD\":20000000,\"savingShare\":0.02,\"incrementalResourceCostUSD\":500000,\"netResourceUSD\":-100000,\"usIncidenceShare\":0.2,\"netDisposableIncidenceShare\":0.25,\"disposableGainUSD\":-5000}"},{"name":"Income pathway high","value":"[{\"editionShare\":1,\"independentShare\":1,\"discountRate\":0.03,\"people\":100000,\"annualIncomeBeforeUSD\":75000,\"annualIncomeGainUSD\":2128,\"years\":1,\"delayYears\":1,\"causalFactors\":{\"implementationProbability\":0.5,\"organizationAttribution\":0.3,\"fundingAdditionality\":1},\"causalShare\":0.15}]","unit":"people, real USD, years and conditional causal factors","basis":"judgment","sourceIds":["income-cg","income-evidence-1","income-evidence-2","income-evidence-3","income-evidence-4"],"rationale":"Central 20 trial-equivalents at illustrative $20M direct cost, 10% avoidable cost => $40M gross; subtract $2M extra challenge, dossier, regulator and participant-resource costs => $38M conditional net real-resource savings. Allocate 50% to U.S. incidence, then only 50% as net disposable income among owners/payers (other resources reinvested or offset losses): $9.5M across 10,000 people, gain $950/person, baseline $100k. Baseline reflects affluent owners/payers, not treating profit gains as $50k-average households. All counts, savings percentages, costs and incidence are judgments; $20M uses historical order of magnitude without pretending inflation precision. Native savings: {\"trials\":100,\"costPerTrialUSD\":20000000,\"savingShare\":0.2,\"incrementalResourceCostUSD\":20000000,\"netResourceUSD\":380000000,\"usIncidenceShare\":0.7,\"netDisposableIncidenceShare\":0.8,\"disposableGainUSD\":212800000}"}],"scenarios":[{"id":"historical-alpha-central","label":"Initial estimate — diagnostic comparison, superseded","costUSD":2424138,"allPopulationQalys":12.5,"editionQalys":7.5,"assumptions":"100000*.1*.5*.25*.1*.2*.5*.6 = 7.5 U.S. QALYs."},{"id":"zero","label":"No added patient benefit","costUSD":2424138,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"assumptions":"No attributable change in effective treatment access or existing funders replace the gift."},{"id":"adverse","label":"Participant or evidence harm","costUSD":2424138,"allPopulationQalys":-10,"editionQalys":-6,"assumptions":"Illustrative stress case; not an observed harm amount."},{"id":"health-only-previous-review","label":"Previous health-only review, superseded diagnostic","costUSD":2424138,"allPopulationQalys":0.950266801379421,"editionQalys":0.3801067205517684,"assumptions":"{\"patients\":100000,\"annualQalyGain\":0.1,\"earlierYears\":0.25,\"reformProbability\":0.25,\"approvalProbability\":0.079,\"incrementalBenefitProbability\":0.5,\"organizationAttribution\":0.15,\"fundingAdditionality\":0.35,\"usShare\":0.4,\"delayYears\":10.5,\"discountRate\":0.03,\"costUSD\":2424138}"},{"id":"central","label":"Combined health and income central hypothesis","costUSD":2424138,"allPopulationQalys":2.7150480039412033,"editionQalys":1.0860192015764814,"incomePathways":[{"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"discountRate":0.03,"people":10000,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":100000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":950,"years":1,"delayYears":3,"causalFactors":{"implementationProbability":0.25,"organizationAttribution":0.15,"fundingAdditionality":1},"causalShare":0.0375,"sourceIds":["income-cg","income-evidence-1","income-evidence-2","income-evidence-3","income-evidence-4"],"rationale":"Central 20 trial-equivalents at illustrative $20M direct cost, 10% avoidable cost => $40M gross; subtract $2M extra challenge, dossier, regulator and participant-resource costs => $38M conditional net real-resource savings. Allocate 50% to U.S. incidence, then only 50% as net disposable income among owners/payers (other resources reinvested or offset losses): $9.5M across 10,000 people, gain $950/person, baseline $100k. Baseline reflects affluent owners/payers, not treating profit gains as $50k-average households. All counts, savings percentages, costs and incidence are judgments; $20M uses historical order of magnitude without pretending inflation precision. Same CTA reform ecosystem as IFP. Attribute economic savings once across collaborators; do not present the two charities as independent wins. Exclude health benefits of reinvested R&D and drug revenue/sales from this savings channel.","counterfactual":"Trials must change because of the reform/work package, not all trials in the industry. Include failed products that avoid resource use. Adoption and cost saving already conditional on reform; adding approvalProbability would double-discount the wrong endpoint. Existing grants and policy actors can deliver the same saving."}],"assumptions":"Annual-cost comparison; fundingAdditionality=1. Health vector: {\"patients\":100000,\"annualQalyGain\":0.1,\"earlierYears\":0.25,\"reformProbability\":0.25,\"approvalProbability\":0.079,\"incrementalBenefitProbability\":0.5,\"organizationAttribution\":0.15,\"fundingAdditionality\":1,\"usShare\":0.4,\"delayYears\":10.5,\"discountRate\":0.03,\"costUSD\":2424138}. Income paths are explicit hypotheses, discounted separately; not confidence limits. Low stress case has implementation cost exceeding saved research resources. Staff/CRO wages lost are not automatically social savings; require labor reassigned productively or subtract lost income. Avoid lower compensation framed as efficiency. Quality losses, privacy and participant harm belong in signed health/economic harm scenarios."},{"id":"low","label":"Conservative joint hypothesis","costUSD":2424138,"allPopulationQalys":0.0016715154880122855,"editionQalys":0.00033430309760245714,"incomePathways":[{"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"discountRate":0.03,"people":1000,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":100000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-5,"years":1,"delayYears":5,"causalFactors":{"implementationProbability":0.1,"organizationAttribution":0.05,"fundingAdditionality":1},"causalShare":0.005000000000000001,"sourceIds":["income-cg","income-evidence-1","income-evidence-2","income-evidence-3","income-evidence-4"],"rationale":"Central 20 trial-equivalents at illustrative $20M direct cost, 10% avoidable cost => $40M gross; subtract $2M extra challenge, dossier, regulator and participant-resource costs => $38M conditional net real-resource savings. Allocate 50% to U.S. incidence, then only 50% as net disposable income among owners/payers (other resources reinvested or offset losses): $9.5M across 10,000 people, gain $950/person, baseline $100k. Baseline reflects affluent owners/payers, not treating profit gains as $50k-average households. All counts, savings percentages, costs and incidence are judgments; $20M uses historical order of magnitude without pretending inflation precision. Same CTA reform ecosystem as IFP. Attribute economic savings once across collaborators; do not present the two charities as independent wins. Exclude health benefits of reinvested R&D and drug revenue/sales from this savings channel.","counterfactual":"Trials must change because of the reform/work package, not all trials in the industry. Include failed products that avoid resource use. Adoption and cost saving already conditional on reform; adding approvalProbability would double-discount the wrong endpoint. Existing grants and policy actors can deliver the same saving."}],"assumptions":"Annual-cost comparison; fundingAdditionality=1. Health vector: {\"patients\":10000,\"annualQalyGain\":0.05,\"earlierYears\":0.08333333333333333,\"reformProbability\":0.1,\"approvalProbability\":0.05,\"incrementalBenefitProbability\":0.25,\"organizationAttribution\":0.05,\"fundingAdditionality\":1,\"usShare\":0.2,\"delayYears\":15,\"discountRate\":0.03,\"costUSD\":2424138}. Income paths are explicit hypotheses, discounted separately; not confidence limits. Low stress case has implementation cost exceeding saved research resources. Staff/CRO wages lost are not automatically social savings; require labor reassigned productively or subtract lost income. Avoid lower compensation framed as efficiency. Quality losses, privacy and participant harm belong in signed health/economic harm scenarios."},{"id":"high","label":"Favorable joint hypothesis","costUSD":2424138,"allPopulationQalys":363.9130809120692,"editionQalys":254.7391566384484,"incomePathways":[{"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"discountRate":0.03,"people":100000,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":75000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":2128,"years":1,"delayYears":1,"causalFactors":{"implementationProbability":0.5,"organizationAttribution":0.3,"fundingAdditionality":1},"causalShare":0.15,"sourceIds":["income-cg","income-evidence-1","income-evidence-2","income-evidence-3","income-evidence-4"],"rationale":"Central 20 trial-equivalents at illustrative $20M direct cost, 10% avoidable cost => $40M gross; subtract $2M extra challenge, dossier, regulator and participant-resource costs => $38M conditional net real-resource savings. Allocate 50% to U.S. incidence, then only 50% as net disposable income among owners/payers (other resources reinvested or offset losses): $9.5M across 10,000 people, gain $950/person, baseline $100k. Baseline reflects affluent owners/payers, not treating profit gains as $50k-average households. All counts, savings percentages, costs and incidence are judgments; $20M uses historical order of magnitude without pretending inflation precision. Same CTA reform ecosystem as IFP. Attribute economic savings once across collaborators; do not present the two charities as independent wins. Exclude health benefits of reinvested R&D and drug revenue/sales from this savings channel.","counterfactual":"Trials must change because of the reform/work package, not all trials in the industry. Include failed products that avoid resource use. Adoption and cost saving already conditional on reform; adding approvalProbability would double-discount the wrong endpoint. Existing grants and policy actors can deliver the same saving."}],"assumptions":"Annual-cost comparison; fundingAdditionality=1. Health vector: {\"patients\":500000,\"annualQalyGain\":0.1,\"earlierYears\":0.5,\"reformProbability\":0.5,\"approvalProbability\":0.15,\"incrementalBenefitProbability\":0.75,\"organizationAttribution\":0.3,\"fundingAdditionality\":1,\"usShare\":0.7,\"delayYears\":5,\"discountRate\":0.03,\"costUSD\":2424138}. Income paths are explicit hypotheses, discounted separately; not confidence limits. Low stress case has implementation cost exceeding saved research resources. Staff/CRO wages lost are not automatically social savings; require labor reassigned productively or subtract lost income. Avoid lower compensation framed as efficiency. Quality losses, privacy and participant harm belong in signed health/economic harm scenarios."},{"id":"three-year-funded-cycle","label":"Three annual budgets for the same effects","costUSD":7272414,"allPopulationQalys":2.7150480039412033,"editionQalys":1.0860192015764814,"incomePathways":[{"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"discountRate":0.03,"people":10000,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":100000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":950,"years":1,"delayYears":3,"causalFactors":{"implementationProbability":0.25,"organizationAttribution":0.15,"fundingAdditionality":1},"causalShare":0.0375,"sourceIds":["income-cg","income-evidence-1","income-evidence-2","income-evidence-3","income-evidence-4"],"rationale":"Central 20 trial-equivalents at illustrative $20M direct cost, 10% avoidable cost => $40M gross; subtract $2M extra challenge, dossier, regulator and participant-resource costs => $38M conditional net real-resource savings. Allocate 50% to U.S. incidence, then only 50% as net disposable income among owners/payers (other resources reinvested or offset losses): $9.5M across 10,000 people, gain $950/person, baseline $100k. Baseline reflects affluent owners/payers, not treating profit gains as $50k-average households. All counts, savings percentages, costs and incidence are judgments; $20M uses historical order of magnitude without pretending inflation precision. Same CTA reform ecosystem as IFP. Attribute economic savings once across collaborators; do not present the two charities as independent wins. Exclude health benefits of reinvested R&D and drug revenue/sales from this savings channel.","counterfactual":"Trials must change because of the reform/work package, not all trials in the industry. Include failed products that avoid resource use. Adoption and cost saving already conditional on reform; adding approvalProbability would double-discount the wrong endpoint. Existing grants and policy actors can deliver the same saving."}],"assumptions":"Same health and income denominator but three years of charity expense, not three repeated copies of the benefits."},{"id":"no-income","label":"No independent economic benefit","costUSD":2424138,"allPopulationQalys":2.7150480039412033,"editionQalys":1.0860192015764814,"incomePathways":[],"assumptions":"Same health model with zero independent economic effect; tests failure, not a claim that omitted evidence proves zero value."},{"id":"old-donor-haircut","label":"Prior marginal-funding haircut applied as sensitivity","costUSD":2424138,"allPopulationQalys":0.9502668013794211,"editionQalys":0.3801067205517685,"incomePathways":[{"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"discountRate":0.03,"people":10000,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":100000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":950,"years":1,"delayYears":3,"causalFactors":{"implementationProbability":0.25,"organizationAttribution":0.15,"fundingAdditionality":0.35},"causalShare":0.013125,"sourceIds":["income-cg","income-evidence-1","income-evidence-2","income-evidence-3","income-evidence-4"],"rationale":"Central 20 trial-equivalents at illustrative $20M direct cost, 10% avoidable cost => $40M gross; subtract $2M extra challenge, dossier, regulator and participant-resource costs => $38M conditional net real-resource savings. Allocate 50% to U.S. incidence, then only 50% as net disposable income among owners/payers (other resources reinvested or offset losses): $9.5M across 10,000 people, gain $950/person, baseline $100k. Baseline reflects affluent owners/payers, not treating profit gains as $50k-average households. All counts, savings percentages, costs and incidence are judgments; $20M uses historical order of magnitude without pretending inflation precision. Same CTA reform ecosystem as IFP. Attribute economic savings once across collaborators; do not present the two charities as independent wins. Exclude health benefits of reinvested R&D and drug revenue/sales from this savings channel.","counterfactual":"Trials must change because of the reform/work package, not all trials in the industry. Include failed products that avoid resource use. Adoption and cost saving already conditional on reform; adding approvalProbability would double-discount the wrong endpoint. Existing grants and policy actors can deliver the same saving."}],"assumptions":"Legacy funding factor 0.35 on both components; not the annual-cost central estimate or verified marginal gift return."}],"sensitivity":["Conservative joint case: $107.04B. Not a confidence limit.","Favorable joint case: $53K. Not a confidence limit.","No income: $22.3M.","Three annual budgets: $26.9M.","Legacy donor haircut: $25.6M. Not a measured marginal gift offer."],"missingInputs":["U.S. versus international budget and beneficiary mix","Attributable policy change and clinical-development time saved","Net participant harms and clinical-success rate","Current unrestricted runway and external research costs","Reconciled legal recipient and payment dates for Coefficient's $1.9M listing","2025/2026 program accounts and CPO collaborator-grant income","CTD archive acquisitions, reuse and counterfactual development timing","Measured net disposable-income gains, incidence, causal scale and public-resource costs to replace income hypotheses"],"calibration":{"reviewed":"2026-09-30","kind":"clinical","previousCentral":{"costUSD":2424138,"allPopulationQalys":12.5,"editionQalys":7.5,"pricePerBetterLife":3232184},"scenarioInputs":{"central":{"patients":100000,"annualQalyGain":0.1,"earlierYears":0.25,"reformProbability":0.25,"approvalProbability":0.079,"incrementalBenefitProbability":0.5,"organizationAttribution":0.15,"fundingAdditionality":1,"usShare":0.4,"delayYears":10.5,"discountRate":0.03,"costUSD":2424138},"low":{"patients":10000,"annualQalyGain":0.05,"earlierYears":0.08333333333333333,"reformProbability":0.1,"approvalProbability":0.05,"incrementalBenefitProbability":0.25,"organizationAttribution":0.05,"fundingAdditionality":1,"usShare":0.2,"delayYears":15,"discountRate":0.03,"costUSD":2424138},"high":{"patients":500000,"annualQalyGain":0.1,"earlierYears":0.5,"reformProbability":0.5,"approvalProbability":0.15,"incrementalBenefitProbability":0.75,"organizationAttribution":0.3,"fundingAdditionality":1,"usShare":0.7,"delayYears":5,"discountRate":0.03,"costUSD":2424138}},"evidence":"docs/geography-discovery/usa-three-cost-calibration-2026-09-30.md","comparison":"Current headline includes signed income welfare and uses a consistent annual-cost counterfactual. Alpha and prior health-only results remain diagnostics.","previousHealthOnly":{"scenario":{"id":"central","label":"Recalibrated positive-health pathway","costUSD":2424138,"allPopulationQalys":0.950266801379421,"editionQalys":0.3801067205517684,"assumptions":"{\"patients\":100000,\"annualQalyGain\":0.1,\"earlierYears\":0.25,\"reformProbability\":0.25,\"approvalProbability\":0.079,\"incrementalBenefitProbability\":0.5,\"organizationAttribution\":0.15,\"fundingAdditionality\":0.35,\"usShare\":0.4,\"delayYears\":10.5,\"discountRate\":0.03,\"costUSD\":2424138}"},"scenarioInputs":{"central":{"patients":100000,"annualQalyGain":0.1,"earlierYears":0.25,"reformProbability":0.25,"approvalProbability":0.079,"incrementalBenefitProbability":0.5,"organizationAttribution":0.15,"fundingAdditionality":0.35,"usShare":0.4,"delayYears":10.5,"discountRate":0.03,"costUSD":2424138},"low":{"patients":10000,"annualQalyGain":0.05,"earlierYears":0.08333333333333333,"reformProbability":0.1,"approvalProbability":0.05,"incrementalBenefitProbability":0.25,"organizationAttribution":0.05,"fundingAdditionality":0.1,"usShare":0.2,"delayYears":15,"discountRate":0.03,"costUSD":2424138},"high":{"patients":500000,"annualQalyGain":0.1,"earlierYears":0.5,"reformProbability":0.5,"approvalProbability":0.15,"incrementalBenefitProbability":0.75,"organizationAttribution":0.3,"fundingAdditionality":0.6,"usShare":0.7,"delayYears":5,"discountRate":0.03,"costUSD":2424138}}},"incomeEvidence":"docs/geography-discovery/usa-three-income-calibration-2026-09-30.md","incomeNativeSavings":{"central":{"trials":20,"costPerTrialUSD":20000000,"savingShare":0.1,"incrementalResourceCostUSD":2000000,"netResourceUSD":38000000,"usIncidenceShare":0.5,"netDisposableIncidenceShare":0.5,"disposableGainUSD":9500000},"low":{"trials":1,"costPerTrialUSD":20000000,"savingShare":0.02,"incrementalResourceCostUSD":500000,"netResourceUSD":-100000,"usIncidenceShare":0.2,"netDisposableIncidenceShare":0.25,"disposableGainUSD":-5000},"high":{"trials":100,"costPerTrialUSD":20000000,"savingShare":0.2,"incrementalResourceCostUSD":20000000,"netResourceUSD":380000000,"usIncidenceShare":0.7,"netDisposableIncidenceShare":0.8,"disposableGainUSD":212800000}}}},"sources":[{"id":"day-program","title":"Clinical Trial Abundance","publisher":"1Day Sooner","url":"https://www.1daysooner.org/clinical-trial-abundance/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-30"},{"id":"day-current","title":"Clinical Trial Abundance Symposium 2026","publisher":"1Day Sooner","url":"https://www.1daysooner.org/cta-symposium/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-30"},{"id":"day-commons","title":"CTD Commons launch","publisher":"1Day Sooner","url":"https://www.1daysooner.org/press-releases/jan-26-ctd-commons-launches-to-unlock-biotechs-lost-archive-and-accelerate-medical-innovation/","published":"2026-01-26","retrieved":"2026-09-30"},{"id":"day-finances","title":"Finances and Transparency","publisher":"1Day Sooner","url":"https://www.1daysooner.org/finances-transparency/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-30"},{"id":"irs","title":"IRS-derived filing index","publisher":"IRS via ProPublica","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/851103820","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-30"},{"id":"cg","title":"Abundance and Growth fund grants","publisher":"Coefficient Giving","url":"https://coefficientgiving.org/funds/abundance-and-growth/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-30"},{"id":"give","title":"Donate","publisher":"1Day Sooner","url":"https://www.1daysooner.org/donate/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-30"},{"id":"day-990-2022","title":"2022 original Form 990","publisher":"IRS via ProPublica","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/851103820/202313189349300501/full","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-30"},{"id":"day-990-2023","title":"2023 original Form 990","publisher":"IRS via ProPublica","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/851103820/202443189349300824/full","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-30"},{"id":"day-990-2024","title":"2024 original Form 990","publisher":"IRS via ProPublica","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/851103820/202533209349300073/full","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-30"},{"id":"day-schedule-o","title":"2024 Schedule O","publisher":"IRS via ProPublica","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202533209349300073/IRS990ScheduleO","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-30"},{"id":"day-action-finances","title":"Affiliate funding disclosure","publisher":"1Day Action","url":"https://1dayaction.org/finances-transparency/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-30"},{"id":"day-cpo","title":"Cooperative Participant Organization","publisher":"1Day Sooner","url":"https://www.1daysooner.org/cpo-investigator-services/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-30"},{"id":"day-cpo-faq","title":"CPO Frequently Asked Questions","publisher":"1Day Sooner","url":"https://www.1daysooner.org/cpo-investigator-services/frequently-asked-questions/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-30"},{"id":"day-council","title":"Participant Council","publisher":"1Day Sooner","url":"https://www.1daysooner.org/council/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-30"},{"id":"day-consent","title":"Informed Consent Guide","publisher":"1Day Sooner","url":"https://www.1daysooner.org/guidance-for-informed-consent-procedure/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-30"},{"id":"day-challenge","title":"Challenge Model Development","publisher":"1Day Sooner","url":"https://www.1daysooner.org/challenge-model-development/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-30"},{"id":"day-briefs","title":"Briefs & Reports","publisher":"1Day Sooner","url":"https://www.1daysooner.org/briefs-and-reports/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-30"},{"id":"day-ctd","title":"CTD Commons","publisher":"CTD Commons","url":"https://www.ctdcommons.org/home","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-30"},{"id":"day-hit","title":"Recruitment under way in hepatitis C study","publisher":"NIHR Oxford BRC","url":"https://oxfordbrc.nihr.ac.uk/recruitment-under-way-in-ground-breaking-hepatitis-c-study/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-30"},{"id":"day-safety","title":"Systematic review of human challenge trials, designs and safety","publisher":"Clinical Infectious Diseases","url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9938741/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-30"},{"id":"day-fda-pilot","title":"Expedited IND pilot launch, September 15 2026","publisher":"FDA","url":"https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-launches-expedited-ind-pilot-begins-accepting-applications","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-30"},{"id":"bio-2011-2020","title":"BIO/Informa/QLS Clinical Development Success Rates and Contributing Factors 2011–2020","publisher":"BIO / Informa / QLS","url":"https://go.bio.org/rs/490-EHZ-999/images/ClinicalDevelopmentSuccessRates2011_2020.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-30"},{"id":"calibration-fda-pilot","title":"Expedited IND pilot launch and initial 8–10 sponsor/QRI pairs","publisher":"FDA","url":"https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-launches-expedited-ind-pilot-begins-accepting-applications","published":"2026-09-15","retrieved":"2026-09-30"},{"id":"income-cg","title":"Cost-effectiveness: health and log-income comparison","publisher":"Coefficient Giving","url":"https://coefficientgiving.org/research/cost-effectiveness/","retrieved":"2026-09-30","published":null},{"id":"income-evidence-1","title":"CTA expressly seeks cheaper evidence generation and greater reuse, through incremental policy and movement building.","publisher":"www.1daysooner.org","url":"https://www.1daysooner.org/clinical-trial-abundance/","retrieved":"2026-09-30","published":null},{"id":"income-evidence-2","title":"1Day authors Fraser-Urquhart/Morrison describe cheaper challenge-agent manufacturing/testing and earlier rejection of ineffective products","publisher":"ifp.org","url":"https://ifp.org/wp-content/uploads/IFP_Policy-Memos_5-ChallengeTrial.pdf","retrieved":"2026-09-30","published":null},{"id":"income-evidence-3","title":"Primary analysis of 59 FDA-approved novel agents in 2015–16 estimated median pivotal efficacy-trial cost $19M; historical modeled sponsor cost, not observed 1Day saving or 2026 price.","publisher":"pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov","url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6248200/","retrieved":"2026-09-30","published":null},{"id":"income-evidence-4","title":"2014 HHS-sponsored operational cost model estimated selected cheaper-facility/in-home strategies could save up to $0.8M/I, $4.3M/II and $9.1M/III","publisher":"aspe.hhs.gov","url":"https://aspe.hhs.gov/reports/examination-clinical-trial-costs-barriers-drug-development","retrieved":"2026-09-30","published":null}]}