{"edition":"new-york-city","organization":"Transportation Alternatives","organizationId":"org:transportation-alternatives","boundaryVersion":"OMB-23-01-2023-07-21","updated":"2026-09-14","model":{"version":"nyc-ta-road-injury-v1","costScope":"Whole recipient annual recognized gross expense; one partial-health pathway, not full portfolio. Public implementation and unrecognized volunteers excluded except sensitivity.","geographicAttribution":"Official 22-county MSA residents only; g=.95 subjective injury-beneficiary residency, not population share or five-borough geography substitution.","formula":"A=sum(j=1..T)1.03^-j; D=u*(1-exp(-(ln(1.03)+m)*L))/(ln(1.03)+m); q=f*D+(1-f)*s; Qall=N*B*r*t*p*a*b*A*q-h; QNYC=g*Qall; price10=10*C/QNYC when positive.","counterfactual":"Existing city plans, appropriations, other coalitions and replacement donations continue. Only additional or accelerated corridor-equivalent years receive credit; no historical completion receives a new gift's credit.","attribution":"p is incremental coalition effect, a TA's distinct share, b donation response. Each applied once. No independent credit to Families for Safe Streets or overlapping Open Plans work.","uncertainty":"Very weak-confidence conditional partial-health estimate; judgment-heavy, not a statistically estimated portfolio return. Scenarios are possibilities, not confidence bounds.","nativeOutcomes":"Additional corridor-equivalent years -> avoided fatal and nonfatal severe injuries -> finite discounted health.","inputs":[{"name":"N","value":4,"unit":"conditional corridor equivalents","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit conditional modeling prior, not calibrated empirical input.","sourceIds":["campaigns","harlem"]},{"name":"B","value":5.2,"unit":"fatal/severe events per corridor-year","basis":"judgment","rationale":"5.2 derives from observed 26/5 on 31st Street; transfer to the modeled campaign portfolio is judgment.","sourceIds":["dot"]},{"name":"r","value":0.181,"unit":"dimensionless or annual rate as formula defines","basis":"observed","rationale":"DOT-reported design association, not causal certainty.","sourceIds":["dot"]},{"name":"t","value":0.5,"unit":"dimensionless or annual rate as formula defines","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit conditional modeling prior, not calibrated empirical input.","sourceIds":["campaigns","harlem"]},{"name":"p","value":0.25,"unit":"dimensionless or annual rate as formula defines","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit conditional modeling prior, not calibrated empirical input.","sourceIds":["campaigns","harlem"]},{"name":"a","value":0.3,"unit":"dimensionless or annual rate as formula defines","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit conditional modeling prior, not calibrated empirical input.","sourceIds":["campaigns","harlem"]},{"name":"b","value":0.5,"unit":"dimensionless or annual rate as formula defines","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit conditional modeling prior, not calibrated empirical input.","sourceIds":["campaigns","harlem"]},{"name":"T","value":5,"unit":"benefit years","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit conditional modeling prior, not calibrated empirical input.","sourceIds":["campaigns","harlem"]},{"name":"g","value":0.95,"unit":"dimensionless or annual rate as formula defines","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit conditional modeling prior, not calibrated empirical input.","sourceIds":["campaigns","harlem"]},{"name":"f","value":0.1,"unit":"dimensionless or annual rate as formula defines","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit conditional modeling prior, not calibrated empirical input.","sourceIds":["campaigns","harlem"]},{"name":"u","value":0.8,"unit":"dimensionless or annual rate as formula defines","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit conditional modeling prior, not calibrated empirical input.","sourceIds":["campaigns","harlem"]},{"name":"m","value":0.02,"unit":"dimensionless or annual rate as formula defines","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit conditional modeling prior, not calibrated empirical input.","sourceIds":["campaigns","harlem"]},{"name":"L","value":20,"unit":"maximum survival years","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit conditional modeling prior, not calibrated empirical input.","sourceIds":["campaigns","harlem"]},{"name":"s","value":1.5,"unit":"discounted QALYs per severe nonfatal injury","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit conditional modeling prior, not calibrated empirical input.","sourceIds":["campaigns","harlem"]},{"name":"h","value":0,"unit":"all-population QALYs lost","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit conditional modeling prior, not calibrated empirical input.","sourceIds":["campaigns","harlem"]},{"name":"C","value":5186682,"unit":"USD/year","basis":"observed","rationale":"FY2025 audited gross expense, return plus event costs.","sourceIds":["audit25","schedule2025"]}],"scenarios":[{"id":"central","label":"Conditional street-injury pathway","costUSD":5186682,"allPopulationQalys":0.7646039973215821,"editionQalys":0.726373797455503,"assumptions":"{\"N\":4,\"B\":5.2,\"r\":0.181,\"t\":0.5,\"p\":0.25,\"a\":0.3,\"b\":0.5,\"T\":5,\"g\":0.95,\"f\":0.1,\"u\":0.8,\"m\":0.02,\"L\":20,\"s\":1.5,\"h\":0,\"C\":5186682}","pricePer10Qalys":71405136.28339864},{"id":"low","label":"Low additional advocacy yield","costUSD":5186682,"allPopulationQalys":0.00009400558795412375,"editionQalys":0.00008460502915871137,"assumptions":"{\"N\":1,\"B\":2,\"r\":0.1,\"t\":0.25,\"p\":0.1,\"a\":0.1,\"b\":0.1,\"T\":2,\"g\":0.9,\"f\":0.05,\"u\":0.8,\"m\":0.02,\"L\":20,\"s\":0.5,\"h\":0,\"C\":5186682}","pricePer10Qalys":613046535362.6029},{"id":"high","label":"Broad favorable policy scenario","costUSD":5186682,"allPopulationQalys":49.047287351196786,"editionQalys":48.55681447768482,"assumptions":"{\"N\":8,\"B\":5.2,\"r\":0.181,\"t\":1,\"p\":0.5,\"a\":0.5,\"b\":0.75,\"T\":10,\"g\":0.99,\"f\":0.15,\"u\":0.8,\"m\":0.02,\"L\":20,\"s\":3,\"h\":0,\"C\":5186682}","pricePer10Qalys":1068167.6827015982},{"id":"zero","label":"No incremental implementation","costUSD":5186682,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"assumptions":"{\"N\":4,\"B\":5.2,\"r\":0.181,\"t\":0.5,\"p\":0,\"a\":0.3,\"b\":0.5,\"T\":5,\"g\":0.95,\"f\":0.1,\"u\":0.8,\"m\":0.02,\"L\":20,\"s\":1.5,\"h\":0,\"C\":5186682}","pricePer10Qalys":null},{"id":"adverse","label":"Displaced or harmful street changes","costUSD":5186682,"allPopulationQalys":-0.25,"editionQalys":-0.2375,"assumptions":"{\"N\":4,\"B\":5.2,\"r\":0.181,\"t\":0.5,\"p\":0,\"a\":0.3,\"b\":0.5,\"T\":5,\"g\":0.95,\"f\":0.1,\"u\":0.8,\"m\":0.02,\"L\":20,\"s\":1.5,\"h\":0.25,\"C\":5186682}","pricePer10Qalys":null},{"id":"public-cost","label":"Illustrative induced public implementation cost","costUSD":5486682,"allPopulationQalys":0.7646039973215821,"editionQalys":0.726373797455503,"assumptions":"{\"N\":4,\"B\":5.2,\"r\":0.181,\"t\":0.5,\"p\":0.25,\"a\":0.3,\"b\":0.5,\"T\":5,\"g\":0.95,\"f\":0.1,\"u\":0.8,\"m\":0.02,\"L\":20,\"s\":1.5,\"h\":0,\"C\":5486682}","pricePer10Qalys":75535241.21079145}],"sensitivity":["Implementation yield, causal share and gift response multiply: a zero in any one eliminates modeled benefit.","Favorable ten-year implementation assumptions yield about $1.1 million per ten MSA QALYs; this is a joint judgment scenario, not a confidence bound.","Adding attributed public construction costs increases the central price; other transport benefits and harms remain unpriced."],"missingInputs":["Donation-responsive additional or accelerated corridor projects versus prior city commitments.","Matched injury trends, corridor severity mix and MSA residency.","Net public and volunteer resources and wider transport health effects."],"nativeCosts":"Central: four conditional corridor opportunities; N*p*a*b=0.15 donor-attributable implemented corridor equivalents. Full recognized annual expense per such equivalent is $34,577,880 before finite injury conversion. These are judgment-based attribution units, not measured projects for sale."},"sources":[{"id":"audit25","title":"FY2025 audited statements","publisher":"Transportation Alternatives","url":"https://transalt.org/s/FY25-Transportation-Alternatives-Inc-Financial-Statement-FINAL-1.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"audit24","title":"FY2024 audit with FY2023 comparative","publisher":"Transportation Alternatives","url":"https://transalt.org/s/Transportation-Alternatives-Inc-24-AUD-FINAL.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"return2023","title":"FY2023 original Form 990","publisher":"Transportation Alternatives / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202420609349301452/IRS990","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"schedule2023","title":"FY2023 original Schedule D reconciliation","publisher":"Transportation Alternatives / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202420609349301452/IRS990ScheduleD","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"return2024","title":"FY2024 original Form 990","publisher":"Transportation Alternatives / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202540159349301174/IRS990","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"schedule2024","title":"FY2024 original Schedule D reconciliation","publisher":"Transportation Alternatives / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202540159349301174/IRS990ScheduleD","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"return2025","title":"FY2025 original Form 990","publisher":"Transportation Alternatives / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202543449349300149/IRS990","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"schedule2025","title":"FY2025 original Schedule D reconciliation","publisher":"Transportation Alternatives / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202543449349300149/IRS990ScheduleD","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"finance","title":"Financial-document directory","publisher":"Transportation Alternatives","url":"https://transalt.org/financials","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"campaigns","title":"Current citywide campaign portfolio","publisher":"Transportation Alternatives","url":"https://transalt.org/citywide-campaigns","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"harlem","title":"Central Harlem Bikeway campaign","publisher":"Transportation Alternatives","url":"https://transalt.org/citywide-campaigns/central-harlem-bikeway","published":"2026-03-23","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"dot","title":"31st Street safety redesign and local risk baseline","publisher":"NYC DOT","url":"https://www.nyc.gov/html/dot/html/pr2026/nyc-dot-redesign-of-31st-st-in-astoria-queens.shtml","published":"2026-04-16","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"equity","title":"Vision Zero equity and street safety report announcement","publisher":"NYC DOT","url":"https://www.nyc.gov/html/dot/html/pr2025/vision-zero-report-street-redesign.shtml","published":"2025-01-15","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"donate","title":"Official donation route","publisher":"Transportation Alternatives","url":"https://transalt.org/donate","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"}]}