{"edition":"new-york-city","organization":"OnPoint NYC","organizationId":"org:onpoint-nyc","boundaryVersion":"OMB-23-01-2023-07-21","updated":"2026-09-14","model":{"version":"nyc-onpoint-finite-survival-v1","costScope":"Whole merged recipient annual recognized cost; overdose-survival component only. Unpriced clinical, infection, psychosocial and public effects prevent a whole-portfolio claim.","geographicAttribution":"g=.98 is a subjective share of modeled unique participants who reside in the official22-county MSA. All sites/known outreach are within the MSA but residence records were unavailable.","formula":"d=ln(1.03); delta=(E/U)*l*a; lambda1=m-delta>=0; F(k,t)=(1-exp(-k*t))/k. H=U*u*[F(lambda1+d,1)-F(m+d,1)+(exp(-lambda1)-exp(-m))*exp(-d)*F(m+d,T-1)]; Qall=b*H-h; QNYC=g*Qall; Price10=10*C/QNYC if positive. The event-level risk input is converted to an annual hazard decrement by the explicit linear approximation delta=(E/U)*l*a, not asserted to be an exact probability-to-hazard identity.","counterfactual":"Public grants, opioid settlement support, ordinary community naloxone/EMS and existing staffing continue. The intervention changes one year's mortality hazard, not all subsequent risk; equal post-year-one hazards impose recurrence and competing mortality.","attribution":"l is a historical-context-informed lethality prior, a a contemporary transfer/rescue factor, b financial additionality. No separate lives-saved multiplier, rescue-lifetime sum, or additional portfolio mortality claim.","uncertainty":"Weak-confidence partial-health best estimate. The event count is observed as an organizational claim; causal lethality, unique-person count, hazards, utility and gift response are subjective. The adverse case prevents interpreting omissions as a proven benefit floor.","nativeOutcomes":"Reported intervention events -> unique-person annual hazard difference -> finite discounted survival difference, not intervention events equated with deaths.","inputs":[{"name":"E","value":434,"unit":"reported interventions per historical year","basis":"observed","rationale":"434 intervention claim in a specified historical 12-month report, transferred to current planning by judgment.","sourceIds":["year3"]},{"name":"U","value":217,"unit":"distinct intervention recipients assumed","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit uncalibrated modeling prior; no claim this is measured OnPoint evidence.","sourceIds":["initial","public26"]},{"name":"l","value":0.02,"unit":"fraction as formula defines","basis":"judgment","rationale":"2% is judgment informed by an old model's 8.4–50.9/1004 range, not modern observed lethality.","sourceIds":["fatalityModel"]},{"name":"a","value":0.5,"unit":"fraction as formula defines","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit uncalibrated modeling prior; no claim this is measured OnPoint evidence.","sourceIds":["initial","public26"]},{"name":"b","value":0.25,"unit":"fraction as formula defines","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit uncalibrated modeling prior; no claim this is measured OnPoint evidence.","sourceIds":["initial","public26"]},{"name":"m","value":0.08,"unit":"annual all-cause hazard","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit uncalibrated modeling prior; no claim this is measured OnPoint evidence.","sourceIds":["initial","public26"]},{"name":"u","value":0.7,"unit":"fraction as formula defines","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit uncalibrated modeling prior; no claim this is measured OnPoint evidence.","sourceIds":["initial","public26"]},{"name":"T","value":10,"unit":"maximum follow-up years","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit uncalibrated modeling prior; no claim this is measured OnPoint evidence.","sourceIds":["initial","public26"]},{"name":"g","value":0.98,"unit":"fraction as formula defines","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit uncalibrated modeling prior; no claim this is measured OnPoint evidence.","sourceIds":["initial","public26"]},{"name":"C","value":16203740,"unit":"USD annual recipient cost","basis":"observed","rationale":"Latest original Form 990 and Schedule D agree.","sourceIds":["return2025","schedule2025"]},{"name":"h","value":0,"unit":"all-population QALYs lost","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit uncalibrated modeling prior; no claim this is measured OnPoint evidence.","sourceIds":["initial","public26"]}],"scenarios":[{"id":"central","label":"Conditional overdose-survival component","costUSD":16203740,"allPopulationQalys":4.289871590346189,"editionQalys":4.204074158539265,"assumptions":"{\"E\":434,\"U\":217,\"l\":0.02,\"a\":0.5,\"b\":0.25,\"m\":0.08,\"u\":0.7,\"T\":10,\"g\":0.98,\"C\":16203740,\"h\":0}","pricePer10Qalys":38542945.221570745},{"id":"low","label":"Low lethality and strong replacement","costUSD":16203740,"allPopulationQalys":0.08279048420559337,"editionQalys":0.07451143578503404,"assumptions":"{\"E\":434,\"U\":109,\"l\":0.005,\"a\":0.25,\"b\":0.1,\"m\":0.12,\"u\":0.5,\"T\":5,\"g\":0.9,\"C\":16203740,\"h\":0}","pricePer10Qalys":2174664845.6416664},{"id":"high","label":"More consequential rescue and longer survival","costUSD":16203740,"allPopulationQalys":50.561375448864275,"editionQalys":50.05576169437563,"assumptions":"{\"E\":434,\"U\":434,\"l\":0.05,\"a\":0.75,\"b\":0.5,\"m\":0.08,\"u\":0.8,\"T\":20,\"g\":0.99,\"C\":16203740,\"h\":0}","pricePer10Qalys":3237137.8341887635},{"id":"zero","label":"Complete funding replacement","costUSD":16203740,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"assumptions":"{\"E\":434,\"U\":217,\"l\":0.02,\"a\":0.5,\"b\":0,\"m\":0.08,\"u\":0.7,\"T\":10,\"g\":0.98,\"C\":16203740,\"h\":0}","pricePer10Qalys":null},{"id":"adverse","label":"No survival benefit with induced harm","costUSD":16203740,"allPopulationQalys":-0.25,"editionQalys":-0.245,"assumptions":"{\"E\":434,\"U\":217,\"l\":0,\"a\":0.5,\"b\":0.25,\"m\":0.08,\"u\":0.7,\"T\":10,\"g\":0.98,\"C\":16203740,\"h\":0.25}","pricePer10Qalys":null},{"id":"resource","label":"Unrecognized partner-resource stress","costUSD":17824114,"allPopulationQalys":4.289871590346189,"editionQalys":4.204074158539265,"assumptions":"{\"E\":434,\"U\":217,\"l\":0.02,\"a\":0.5,\"b\":0.25,\"m\":0.08,\"u\":0.7,\"T\":10,\"g\":0.98,\"C\":17824114,\"h\":0}","pricePer10Qalys":42397239.74372782}],"sensitivity":["Unique-person clustering, untreated lethality and funding response dominate the survival estimate.","The intervention changes only first-year hazard; all later competing and recurrent mortality returns to the baseline hazard.","Zero, adverse and added partner-resource scenarios do not establish a full-portfolio lower bound."],"missingInputs":["Distinct intervention recipients and repeated-event severity, with alternative rescue evidence.","Current donation-sensitive capacity beyond public appropriations and other donors.","Longitudinal mortality, health utility and MSA residency.","Comparable FY2023 merger perimeter and unpriced non-overdose benefits or harms."],"nativeCosts":"Full annual recognized expense per 434 historical reported intervention events is $37,335.81, a mixed-portfolio accounting ratio, not cost per additional rescue. Central one-year survivor difference after funding/residency allocation is 0.99 people; subsequent survival differences are integrated finitely rather than awarding one lifetime per event."},"sources":[{"id":"return2023","title":"FY2023 original Form 990","publisher":"On Point NYC / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202423619349300202/IRS990","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"schedule2023","title":"FY2023 original Schedule D","publisher":"On Point NYC / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202423619349300202/IRS990ScheduleD","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"return2024","title":"FY2024 original Form 990","publisher":"On Point NYC / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202511359349315901/IRS990","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"schedule2024","title":"FY2024 original Schedule D","publisher":"On Point NYC / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202511359349315901/IRS990ScheduleD","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"return2025","title":"FY2025 original Form 990","publisher":"On Point NYC / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202621359349304162/IRS990","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"schedule2025","title":"FY2025 original Schedule D","publisher":"On Point NYC / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202621359349304162/IRS990ScheduleD","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"inKind","title":"FY2025 original noncash property schedule","publisher":"On Point NYC / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202621359349304162/IRS990ScheduleM","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"amended","title":"FY2023 amendment explanation","publisher":"On Point NYC / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202423619349300202/IRS990ScheduleO","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"history","title":"Merger and recipient history","publisher":"OnPoint NYC","url":"https://onpointnyc.org/history/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"services","title":"Current service portfolio and locations","publisher":"OnPoint NYC","url":"https://onpointnyc.org/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"year3","title":"Third-year operations, November 2023–November 2024","publisher":"OnPoint NYC","url":"https://onpointnyc.org/year-three-impact-report/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"milestone","title":"2,000 cumulative interventions milestone","publisher":"OnPoint NYC","url":"https://onpointnyc.org/2000-overdose-interventions/","published":"2026-05-06","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"finance","title":"Funding and original-document directory","publisher":"OnPoint NYC","url":"https://onpointnyc.org/financials/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"public26","title":"Current opioid settlement expenditure and service report","publisher":"NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene","url":"https://www.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/basas/opioid-settlement-funds-report-06032026.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"initial","title":"First two months of OPC operation, uncontrolled quality-improvement study","publisher":"Harocopos et al., JAMA Network Open","url":"https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2794323","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"fatalityModel","title":"Vancouver model of potentially avoided overdose deaths","publisher":"Milloy et al., PLOS ONE","url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18839040/","published":"2008-10-07","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"cohort","title":"Frequent facility use and all-cause mortality cohort","publisher":"Kennedy et al., PLOS Medicine","url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31770391/","published":"2019-11-26","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"ontario","title":"Controlled interrupted time-series of Ontario SCS mortality","publisher":"Study authors, indexed by PubMed","url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/39104058/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"crime","title":"Difference-in-differences neighborhood crime study","publisher":"Chalfin et al., JAMA Network Open","url":"https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2811766","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"donate","title":"Ordinary donation route","publisher":"OnPoint NYC","url":"https://onpointnyc.org/donate/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"}]}