{"edition":"new-york-city","organization":"New York City Environmental Justice Alliance","organizationId":"org:new-york-city-environmental-justice-alliance","boundaryVersion":"OMB-23-01-2023-07-21","updated":"2026-09-14","model":{"version":"nyc-eja-heat-policy-v1","costScope":"Three years of whole-recipient gross expense; priced heat-policy implementation only, not total environmental portfolio.","geographicAttribution":"g=1 for modeled NYC-resident heat mortality, entirely within the official 22-county MSA. No statewide campaign or climate benefit assigned by headquarters.","formula":"v=ln(1+d)+m; q=u*(1-exp(-v*L))/v; A=sum(j=0..T-1)(1+d)^(-lag-j); Qall=D*r*p*a*b*q*A-h; QMSA=g*Qall; price10=10*C/QMSA if positive.","counterfactual":"Enacted cooling law, existing HEAP, cooling centers, agency enforcement and other coalition members continue. Only improvement beyond that baseline is credited; no historical passage or total congestion-pricing gain.","attribution":"r is conditional incremental mortality reduction across the city after an additional implementation package; p is probability the coalition changes implementation, a is NYC-EJA contribution, b is ordinary funding response. Each is applied once.","uncertainty":"Judgment-based scenario, not a statistical forecast or complete portfolio ranking. Marginal cooling uptake, health protection and campaign additionality are not observed. Positive alternatives, zero and harm are retained.","nativeOutcomes":"Additional implementation of cooling access and affordability -> annual heat deaths avoided beyond baseline -> finite survival-adjusted QALYs.","inputs":[{"name":"C","value":7512648,"unit":"USD across three operating years","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Three times observed FY2024 gross expense, assuming constant future scale and charging the three annual budgets upfront without cost discounting; not an observed three-year expenditure.","sourceIds":["return2024","schedule2024"]},{"name":"D","value":500,"unit":"historical annual NYC heat deaths","basis":"observed","rationale":"Rounded current city estimate, predominantly statistically estimated heat-exacerbated deaths; not an observed campaign outcome.","sourceIds":["heat","law","mortality"]},{"name":"r","value":0.01,"unit":"fraction of heat deaths additionally prevented conditional on implementation","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit subjective assumption, not source-calibrated probability or measured treatment effect.","sourceIds":["heat","law","mortality"]},{"name":"p","value":0.25,"unit":"coalition incremental implementation probability","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit subjective assumption, not source-calibrated probability or measured treatment effect.","sourceIds":["heat","law","mortality"]},{"name":"a","value":0.2,"unit":"NYC-EJA attribution fraction","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit subjective assumption, not source-calibrated probability or measured treatment effect.","sourceIds":["heat","law","mortality"]},{"name":"b","value":0.5,"unit":"funding response fraction","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit subjective assumption, not source-calibrated probability or measured treatment effect.","sourceIds":["heat","law","mortality"]},{"name":"T","value":5,"unit":"annual mortality cohorts","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit subjective assumption, not source-calibrated probability or measured treatment effect.","sourceIds":["heat","law","mortality"]},{"name":"lag","value":4,"unit":"years to first benefit","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit subjective assumption, not source-calibrated probability or measured treatment effect.","sourceIds":["heat","law","mortality"]},{"name":"u","value":0.6,"unit":"health utility","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit subjective assumption, not source-calibrated probability or measured treatment effect.","sourceIds":["heat","law","mortality"]},{"name":"m","value":0.2,"unit":"annual competing mortality hazard","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit subjective assumption, not source-calibrated probability or measured treatment effect.","sourceIds":["heat","law","mortality"]},{"name":"L","value":5,"unit":"maximum remaining survival years","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit subjective assumption, not source-calibrated probability or measured treatment effect.","sourceIds":["heat","law","mortality"]},{"name":"h","value":0,"unit":"net QALYs of adverse effects","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit subjective assumption, not source-calibrated probability or measured treatment effect.","sourceIds":["heat","law","mortality"]},{"name":"g","value":1,"unit":"MSA fraction","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit subjective assumption, not source-calibrated probability or measured treatment effect.","sourceIds":["heat","law","mortality"]},{"name":"d","value":0.03,"unit":"annual discount","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit subjective assumption, not source-calibrated probability or measured treatment effect.","sourceIds":["heat","law","mortality"]}],"scenarios":[{"id":"central","label":"Conditional additional heat-policy implementation","costUSD":7512648,"allPopulationQalys":0.9347604475165978,"editionQalys":0.9347604475165978,"pricePer10Qalys":80369767.67640357,"assumptions":"{\"C\":7512648,\"D\":500,\"r\":0.01,\"p\":0.25,\"a\":0.2,\"b\":0.5,\"T\":5,\"lag\":4,\"u\":0.6,\"m\":0.2,\"L\":5,\"h\":0,\"g\":1,\"d\":0.03}"},{"id":"low","label":"Small implementation effect and short survival","costUSD":7512648,"allPopulationQalys":0.0013015371987690572,"editionQalys":0.0013015371987690572,"pricePer10Qalys":57721346782.13706,"assumptions":"{\"C\":7512648,\"D\":500,\"r\":0.002,\"p\":0.1,\"a\":0.1,\"b\":0.1,\"T\":5,\"lag\":4,\"u\":0.4,\"m\":0.5,\"L\":1,\"h\":0,\"g\":1,\"d\":0.03}"},{"id":"high","label":"Substantial additional cooling protection","costUSD":7512648,"allPopulationQalys":46.253403033241405,"editionQalys":46.253403033241405,"pricePer10Qalys":1624236.8144460223,"assumptions":"{\"C\":7512648,\"D\":500,\"r\":0.05,\"p\":0.5,\"a\":0.3,\"b\":0.75,\"T\":5,\"lag\":4,\"u\":0.7,\"m\":0.1,\"L\":10,\"h\":0,\"g\":1,\"d\":0.03}"},{"id":"zero","label":"Complete funding replacement","costUSD":7512648,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"pricePer10Qalys":null,"assumptions":"{\"C\":7512648,\"D\":500,\"r\":0.01,\"p\":0.25,\"a\":0.2,\"b\":0,\"T\":5,\"lag\":4,\"u\":0.6,\"m\":0.2,\"L\":5,\"h\":0,\"g\":1,\"d\":0.03}"},{"id":"adverse","label":"No protection and implementation-related harm","costUSD":7512648,"allPopulationQalys":-1,"editionQalys":-1,"pricePer10Qalys":null,"assumptions":"{\"C\":7512648,\"D\":500,\"r\":0,\"p\":0.25,\"a\":0.2,\"b\":0.5,\"T\":5,\"lag\":4,\"u\":0.6,\"m\":0.2,\"L\":5,\"h\":1,\"g\":1,\"d\":0.03}"},{"id":"induced-cost","label":"Added household and public resources","costUSD":8512648,"allPopulationQalys":0.9347604475165978,"editionQalys":0.9347604475165978,"pricePer10Qalys":91067695.7140813,"assumptions":"{\"C\":8512648,\"D\":500,\"r\":0.01,\"p\":0.25,\"a\":0.2,\"b\":0.5,\"T\":5,\"lag\":4,\"u\":0.6,\"m\":0.2,\"L\":5,\"h\":0,\"g\":1,\"d\":0.03}"},{"id":"volunteer-cost","label":"Unrecognized coalition-resource sensitivity","costUSD":9390810,"allPopulationQalys":0.9347604475165978,"editionQalys":0.9347604475165978,"pricePer10Qalys":100462209.59550446,"assumptions":"{\"C\":9390810,\"D\":500,\"r\":0.01,\"p\":0.25,\"a\":0.2,\"b\":0.5,\"T\":5,\"lag\":4,\"u\":0.6,\"m\":0.2,\"L\":5,\"h\":0,\"g\":1,\"d\":0.03}"}],"missingInputs":["Incremental cooling uptake, affordability and compliance beyond enacted-law baseline.","Campaign-specific coalition and NYC-EJA attribution, and unrestricted funding response.","Induced public/landlord/household resources and distributional harms."],"sensitivity":["Small implementation effect and short survival: 57,721,346,782 USD per 10 MSA QALYs. Scenario assumptions are judgments, not statistical confidence limits.","Substantial additional cooling protection: 1,624,237 USD per 10 MSA QALYs. Scenario assumptions are judgments, not statistical confidence limits.","Complete funding replacement: no finite positive-benefit price. Scenario assumptions are judgments, not statistical confidence limits.","No protection and implementation-related harm: no finite positive-benefit price. Scenario assumptions are judgments, not statistical confidence limits.","Added household and public resources: 91,067,696 USD per 10 MSA QALYs. Scenario assumptions are judgments, not statistical confidence limits.","Unrecognized coalition-resource sensitivity: 100,462,210 USD per 10 MSA QALYs. Scenario assumptions are judgments, not statistical confidence limits."],"nativeCosts":"Central donor-attributable deaths avoided are 500*0.01*0.25*0.2*0.5 = 0.125 per annual cohort and 0.625 over five cohorts, before timing discount. Three-year recipient cost / 0.625 = $12,020,236.80 per conditional death avoided; finite competing-risk survival then determines QALYs. No deaths are claimed as observed campaign outcomes."},"sources":[{"id":"return2022","title":"FY2022 original Form 990","publisher":"NYC-EJA / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202323199349308712/IRS990","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"schedule2022","title":"FY2022 original audit reconciliation","publisher":"NYC-EJA / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202323199349308712/IRS990ScheduleD","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"return2023","title":"FY2023 original Form 990","publisher":"NYC-EJA / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202443199349303594/IRS990","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"schedule2023","title":"FY2023 original audit reconciliation","publisher":"NYC-EJA / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202443199349303594/IRS990ScheduleD","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"return2024","title":"FY2024 original Form 990","publisher":"NYC-EJA / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202523219349319307/IRS990","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"schedule2024","title":"FY2024 original audit reconciliation","publisher":"NYC-EJA / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202523219349319307/IRS990ScheduleD","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"heat","title":"Current heat and air-quality campaign","publisher":"NYC-EJA","url":"https://nyc-eja.org/campaigns/extreme-heat-and-air-quality/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"transport","title":"Current transportation portfolio","publisher":"NYC-EJA","url":"https://nyc-eja.org/campaigns/transportation-justice/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"law","title":"Enacted cooling law and implementation requirements","publisher":"NYC Council","url":"https://legistar.council.nyc.gov/LegislationDetail.aspx?GUID=156F95BB-CA74-44F3-A07B-A0E54EA0C10F&ID=6788510","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"mortality","title":"2026 heat-mortality report","publisher":"NYC Department of Health","url":"https://a816-dohbesp.nyc.gov/IndicatorPublic/data-features/heat-report/","published":"2026-06-15","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"funding","title":"Current cooling funding and unmet demand","publisher":"NYC Department of Health","url":"https://www.nyc.gov/site/doh/about/press/pr2026/nyc-health-department-releases-report-on-heat-related-deaths.page","published":"2026-06-15","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"related","title":"Original related-party rental disclosure","publisher":"NYC-EJA / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202523219349319307/IRS990ScheduleL","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"donate","title":"Official donation route","publisher":"NYC-EJA","url":"https://nyc-eja.org/support-donate/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"}]}