{"edition":"new-york-city","organization":"New Jersey Environmental Justice Alliance","organizationId":"org:new-jersey-environmental-justice-alliance","boundaryVersion":"OMB-23-01-2023-07-21","updated":"2026-09-14","model":{"version":"nyc-njeja-pollution-portfolio-v1","costScope":"Three years of latest whole-recipient reported gross expense; FY2024 cash-basis proxy, not a verified accrual audit. No program-only denominator; induced compliance and unrecognized-resource sensitivities explicit.","geographicAttribution":"g=.8 is an explicit prior for the modeled exposure cohort, not an observed share of statewide beneficiaries. Only official 22-county MSA residents' gains enter the local denominator.","formula":"k=ln(1+d); delta=m*(1-exp(-beta*pm))*c; F(v,t)=(1-exp(-v*t))/v; Qall=N*u*p*a*b*exp(-k*lag)*[F(m-delta+k,T)-F(m+k,T)+(exp(-(m-delta)*T)-exp(-m*T))*exp(-k*T)*F(m+k,L-T)]-h; QMSA=g*Qall; price10=10*C/QMSA if positive. N is the hypothetical cohort alive at exposure onset after lag, not a fixed group counted today. Thus pre-onset survival is not applied again; if N instead denotes today’s fixed cohort, multiply the positive survival term by exp(-m*lag). No benefit occurs before exposure onset.","counterfactual":"Existing EJ law, permitting staff, funded clean-port projects and other advocates continue. pm is net incremental exposure after relocation and replacement generation, not total regulated emissions. b captures ordinary-donation response once.","attribution":"One correlated policy portfolio opportunity, with separate coalition additionality p, NJEJA contribution a and funding response b. Do not add full policy benefits from each coalition member or duplicate grants flowing between them.","uncertainty":"All campaign-scale, exposure and attribution figures are explicit judgment. The exposure hypothesis is not empirically calibrated. A major potential portfolio pathway is priced, but climate, toxics, social benefits and non-PM harms remain incomplete.","nativeOutcomes":"Policy implementation beyond baseline -> net population-weighted PM2.5 concentration change -> finite cohort survival -> local QALYs. Central exposure before attribution is 500,000 adults × 0.1 microgram/m³ × 5 years = 250,000 concentration-person-years. Policy incrementality, coalition contribution, funding response and local share yield 2,500 additional local concentration-person-years; the epidemiological transfer factor affects health, not this physical unit. Cost is $1,613.75 per modeled additional local concentration-person-year. This is a scenario diagnostic, not measured avoided emissions or an observed permit effect.","inputs":[{"name":"C","value":4034382,"unit":"USD three-year whole-recipient resources","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Three times the observed FY2024 cash-basis expense of $1,344,794. A constant future scale and charging all three years at the decision date are conservative analyst assumptions, not an observed three-year budget.","sourceIds":["return2024","schedule2024"]},{"name":"N","value":500000,"unit":"hypothetical affected adults","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit scenario prior, not source-calibrated campaign forecast or observed local input.","sourceIds":["energy","portfolio","current"]},{"name":"pm","value":0.1,"unit":"micrograms/m³ net annual PM2.5 reduction","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit scenario prior, not source-calibrated campaign forecast or observed local input.","sourceIds":["energy","portfolio","current"]},{"name":"beta","value":0.007045846364856137,"unit":"log mortality association per microgram/m³","basis":"observed","rationale":"Log(1.073)/10 from Medicare association; c separately discounts causal and population transfer.","sourceIds":["clinical"]},{"name":"c","value":0.5,"unit":"epidemiological transfer fraction","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit scenario prior, not source-calibrated campaign forecast or observed local input.","sourceIds":["energy","portfolio","current"]},{"name":"m","value":0.01,"unit":"baseline adult annual mortality hazard","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit scenario prior, not source-calibrated campaign forecast or observed local input.","sourceIds":["energy","portfolio","current"]},{"name":"u","value":0.75,"unit":"health utility","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit scenario prior, not source-calibrated campaign forecast or observed local input.","sourceIds":["energy","portfolio","current"]},{"name":"T","value":5,"unit":"years of reduced exposure","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit scenario prior, not source-calibrated campaign forecast or observed local input.","sourceIds":["energy","portfolio","current"]},{"name":"L","value":15,"unit":"finite survival horizon years","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit scenario prior, not source-calibrated campaign forecast or observed local input.","sourceIds":["energy","portfolio","current"]},{"name":"lag","value":2,"unit":"years until exposure improvement","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit scenario prior, not source-calibrated campaign forecast or observed local input.","sourceIds":["energy","portfolio","current"]},{"name":"p","value":0.25,"unit":"incremental coalition probability","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit scenario prior, not source-calibrated campaign forecast or observed local input.","sourceIds":["energy","portfolio","current"]},{"name":"a","value":0.2,"unit":"NJEJA contribution fraction","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit scenario prior, not source-calibrated campaign forecast or observed local input.","sourceIds":["energy","portfolio","current"]},{"name":"b","value":0.25,"unit":"funding response fraction","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit scenario prior, not source-calibrated campaign forecast or observed local input.","sourceIds":["energy","portfolio","current"]},{"name":"g","value":0.8,"unit":"MSA benefit fraction","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit scenario prior, not source-calibrated campaign forecast or observed local input.","sourceIds":["energy","portfolio","current"]},{"name":"h","value":0,"unit":"net adverse QALYs","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit scenario prior, not source-calibrated campaign forecast or observed local input.","sourceIds":["energy","portfolio","current"]},{"name":"d","value":0.03,"unit":"annual discount rate","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit scenario prior, not source-calibrated campaign forecast or observed local input.","sourceIds":["energy","portfolio","current"]}],"scenarios":[{"id":"central","label":"Conditional cumulative air-policy portfolio","costUSD":4034382,"allPopulationQalys":0.6979133963400742,"editionQalys":0.5583307170720594,"pricePer10Qalys":72257926.64886309,"assumptions":"{\"C\":4034382,\"N\":500000,\"pm\":0.1,\"beta\":0.007045846364856137,\"c\":0.5,\"m\":0.01,\"u\":0.75,\"T\":5,\"L\":15,\"lag\":2,\"p\":0.25,\"a\":0.2,\"b\":0.25,\"g\":0.8,\"h\":0,\"d\":0.03}"},{"id":"low","label":"Small exposure change and weak influence","costUSD":4034382,"allPopulationQalys":0.0005621602730130123,"editionQalys":0.00028108013650650614,"pricePer10Qalys":143531380414.94498,"assumptions":"{\"C\":4034382,\"N\":100000,\"pm\":0.02,\"beta\":0.007045846364856137,\"c\":0.25,\"m\":0.01,\"u\":0.75,\"T\":5,\"L\":8,\"lag\":2,\"p\":0.1,\"a\":0.1,\"b\":0.1,\"g\":0.5,\"h\":0,\"d\":0.03}"},{"id":"high","label":"Material exposure reduction and policy leverage","costUSD":4034382,"allPopulationQalys":48.184295178179056,"editionQalys":43.36586566036115,"pricePer10Qalys":930312.802146517,"assumptions":"{\"C\":4034382,\"N\":1000000,\"pm\":0.3,\"beta\":0.007045846364856137,\"c\":0.75,\"m\":0.01,\"u\":0.75,\"T\":5,\"L\":20,\"lag\":2,\"p\":0.5,\"a\":0.3,\"b\":0.5,\"g\":0.9,\"h\":0,\"d\":0.03}"},{"id":"zero","label":"Complete funding replacement","costUSD":4034382,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"pricePer10Qalys":null,"assumptions":"{\"C\":4034382,\"N\":500000,\"pm\":0.1,\"beta\":0.007045846364856137,\"c\":0.5,\"m\":0.01,\"u\":0.75,\"T\":5,\"L\":15,\"lag\":2,\"p\":0.25,\"a\":0.2,\"b\":0,\"g\":0.8,\"h\":0,\"d\":0.03}"},{"id":"adverse","label":"Replacement generation worsens exposure","costUSD":4034382,"allPopulationQalys":-0.13964034652197907,"editionQalys":-0.11171227721758326,"pricePer10Qalys":null,"assumptions":"{\"C\":4034382,\"N\":500000,\"pm\":-0.02,\"beta\":0.007045846364856137,\"c\":0.5,\"m\":0.01,\"u\":0.75,\"T\":5,\"L\":15,\"lag\":2,\"p\":0.25,\"a\":0.2,\"b\":0.25,\"g\":0.8,\"h\":0,\"d\":0.03}"},{"id":"reliability","label":"Additional affordability or reliability harm","costUSD":4034382,"allPopulationQalys":-0.3020866036599258,"editionQalys":-0.24166928292794065,"pricePer10Qalys":null,"assumptions":"{\"C\":4034382,\"N\":500000,\"pm\":0.1,\"beta\":0.007045846364856137,\"c\":0.5,\"m\":0.01,\"u\":0.75,\"T\":5,\"L\":15,\"lag\":2,\"p\":0.25,\"a\":0.2,\"b\":0.25,\"g\":0.8,\"h\":1,\"d\":0.03}"},{"id":"compliance-cost","label":"Added induced compliance resources","costUSD":14034382,"allPopulationQalys":0.6979133963400742,"editionQalys":0.5583307170720594,"pricePer10Qalys":251363243.5198562,"assumptions":"{\"C\":14034382,\"N\":500000,\"pm\":0.1,\"beta\":0.007045846364856137,\"c\":0.5,\"m\":0.01,\"u\":0.75,\"T\":5,\"L\":15,\"lag\":2,\"p\":0.25,\"a\":0.2,\"b\":0.25,\"g\":0.8,\"h\":0,\"d\":0.03}"},{"id":"coalition-resources","label":"Unrecognized coalition resources 25%","costUSD":5042977.5,"allPopulationQalys":0.6979133963400742,"editionQalys":0.5583307170720594,"pricePer10Qalys":90322408.31107886,"assumptions":"{\"C\":5042977.5,\"N\":500000,\"pm\":0.1,\"beta\":0.007045846364856137,\"c\":0.5,\"m\":0.01,\"u\":0.75,\"T\":5,\"L\":15,\"lag\":2,\"p\":0.25,\"a\":0.2,\"b\":0.25,\"g\":0.8,\"h\":0,\"d\":0.03}"}],"missingInputs":["Campaign-specific additional exposure reductions after funded and mandated baseline.","Affected adult cohort, residence and source-to-receptor modeling.","Incremental coalition influence, recipient contribution and unrestricted-funding allocation.","FY2024 accrual audit reconciliation and complete donated/coalition resource inventory.","Induced compliance investment, replacement generation, affordability and outage harms."],"sensitivity":["Small exposure change and weak influence: 143531380415 USD per 10 MSA QALYs.","Material exposure reduction and policy leverage: 930313 USD per 10 MSA QALYs.","Complete funding replacement: no finite positive-benefit price.","Replacement generation worsens exposure: no finite positive-benefit price.","Additional affordability or reliability harm: no finite positive-benefit price.","Added induced compliance resources: 251363244 USD per 10 MSA QALYs.","Unrecognized coalition resources 25%: 90322408 USD per 10 MSA QALYs."]},"sources":[{"id":"return2022","title":"FY2022 original IRS990","publisher":"NJEJA / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202323189349314617/IRS990","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"schedule2022","title":"FY2022 original IRS990ScheduleD","publisher":"NJEJA / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202323189349314617/IRS990ScheduleD","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"notes2022","title":"FY2022 original IRS990ScheduleO","publisher":"NJEJA / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202323189349314617/IRS990ScheduleO","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"return2023","title":"FY2023 original IRS990","publisher":"NJEJA / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202422829349300247/IRS990","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"schedule2023","title":"FY2023 original IRS990ScheduleD","publisher":"NJEJA / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202422829349300247/IRS990ScheduleD","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"notes2023","title":"FY2023 original IRS990ScheduleO","publisher":"NJEJA / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202422829349300247/IRS990ScheduleO","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"return2024","title":"FY2024 original IRS990","publisher":"NJEJA / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202533029349302233/IRS990","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"schedule2024","title":"FY2024 original IRS990ScheduleD","publisher":"NJEJA / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202533029349302233/IRS990ScheduleD","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"notes2024","title":"FY2024 original IRS990ScheduleO","publisher":"NJEJA / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202533029349302233/IRS990ScheduleO","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"portfolio","title":"Policy portfolio, including historical material","url":"https://njeja.org/what-we-do/","publisher":"NJEJA","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"energy","title":"Resource adequacy comments","url":"https://njeja.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/NJEJA-Comments-BPU-ResourceAdequacy.pdf","publisher":"NJEJA","published":"2025-08-19","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"pvsc","title":"Opposition to PVSC permit","url":"https://njeja.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/NJEJA-Opposes-PVSC-Fourth-Power-Plant-1.pdf","publisher":"NJEJA","published":"2024-09-19","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"epaorder","title":"Order denying another petitioner's PVSC permit objection","url":"https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2026-02/passaic-valley-sewerage-order_02-03-2026.pdf","publisher":"US EPA","published":"2026-02-03","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"current","title":"Current environmental justice implementation and March 2026 map update","url":"https://dep.nj.gov/ej/","publisher":"NJDEP","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"ports","title":"Clean Ports funding selection and planned equipment","url":"https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-announces-historic-400m-clean-ports-investment-new-jersey","publisher":"US EPA","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"population","title":"Historical statewide overburdened-community population envelope","url":"https://dep.nj.gov/newsrel/21_0028/","publisher":"NJDEP","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"clinical","title":"Air pollution and mortality in Medicare cohort","url":"https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1702747","publisher":"Di et al. / NEJM","published":"2017-06-29","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"currentwork","title":"2026 youth-program role and current organization information","url":"https://njeja.org/get-involved/","publisher":"NJEJA","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"donate","title":"Ordinary donation route","url":"https://njeja.org/donate/","publisher":"NJEJA","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"ej-law-current","title":"Current environmental justice permitting law","publisher":"NJDEP","url":"https://dep.nj.gov/ej/law/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"}]}