{"edition":"new-york-city","organization":"Harlem Children's Zone","organizationId":"ein:23-7112974","boundaryVersion":"OMB-23-01-2023-07-21","updated":"2026-10-18","display":{"metric":{"id":"daly-equivalent","years":1,"label":"DALY","priceLabel":"$ / DALY"},"priceUSD":336001.6631732257,"canonicalPriceUSDPerTenEquivalentYears":3360016.631732257,"conversion":"display only; QALYs and income equivalents are not measured clinical DALYs"},"listDisplay":{"metric":{"id":"daly-equivalent","years":1,"label":"DALY","priceLabel":"$ / DALY"},"priceUSD":336001.6631732257,"canonicalPriceUSDPerTenEquivalentYears":3360016.631732257,"conversion":"display only; QALYs and income equivalents are not measured clinical DALYs"},"model":{"version":"hcz-nyc-beta-income-20261018","costScope":"HCZ Inc FY2023 expense per person served (own programs) × six school years; charter per-pupil funding excluded as displacing district spending.","geographicAttribution":"Harlem students; 0.8 of adult earning years in the NYC metro.","formula":"Price = 10 × (HCZ cost per person × 6) ÷ [0.5 × discounted years(ages 25–59 from 12) × ln(1 + 0.6 × gain ÷ base) × causal × non-displacement × NYC share]. Gain = 0.283 SD × 37.5 percentiles/SD × $150 × CPI. Health = 0.","counterfactual":"Lottery losers in other NYC schools.","attribution":"A gift is credited with the average Promise Academy effect per student at HCZ’s average per-person cost; other HCZ programs unquantified.","uncertainty":"Dominated by the test-score-to-earnings link and by whether charter public funding is a real added cost.","nativeOutcomes":"Math scores, on-time graduation, college enrollment timing, teen pregnancy, incarceration and health self-reports.","inputs":[{"name":"HCZ Inc FY2023 expense","value":117336803,"unit":"USD","basis":"observed","rationale":"Form 990, year ending June 2023.","sourceIds":["propublica"]},{"name":"People served by HCZ programs","value":19638,"unit":"people","basis":"observed","rationale":"FY22 impact report (traditional programming).","sourceIds":["hcz-impact"]},{"name":"Charter FY2023 expense","value":29941591,"unit":"USD","basis":"observed","rationale":"Promise Academy charter Form 990.","sourceIds":["propublica-charter"]},{"name":"Charter students","value":1500,"unit":"students","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Implied by charter spending at roughly $20,000 per pupil; not observed.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"Persistent math effect","value":0.283,"unit":"SD","basis":"observed","rationale":"Six years after the lottery.","sourceIds":["dobbie-fryer"]},{"name":"Causal share of score-earnings link","value":0.5,"unit":"share","basis":"judgment","rationale":"As in the Saga review; no lasting graduation or enrollment difference in J-PAL’s summary.","sourceIds":["jpal"]}],"missingInputs":["Current Promise Academy enrollment and per-student cost.","Adult earnings for lottery participants.","Valuation of teen-pregnancy and incarceration effects."],"scenarios":[{"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"id":"central","label":"HCZ spending per person over six years; charter funding treated as displacing district spending","costUSD":3584992.4534066604,"assumptions":"HCZ Inc FY2023 expense per person served (19,638) for six school years; persistent 0.283 SD math gain; half the score-earnings association causal; 0.9 non-displacement; 0.8 NYC residence.","incomePathways":[{"people":100,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":35000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":1404.0337499999998,"years":35,"delayYears":13,"discountRate":0.03,"editionShare":0.8,"independentShare":1,"causalFactors":{"causalScoreToEarnings":0.5,"nonDisplacement":0.9},"causalShare":0.45,"sourceIds":["dobbie-fryer","jpal"],"rationale":"Persistent lottery effect of 0.283 SD on a nationally normed math test six years after admission, mapped to adult earnings with the Chetty et al. percentile association, half treated as causal; net of taxes and lost benefits.","counterfactual":"Lottery losers attended other Harlem and NYC schools; effects are net of those alternatives."}]},{"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"id":"with-charter-cost","label":"Add the charter school’s own spending","costUSD":15561628.85340666,"assumptions":"Counts Promise Academy’s public per-pupil spending (about 1,500 students, judgment) as an added cost.","incomePathways":[{"people":100,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":35000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":1404.0337499999998,"years":35,"delayYears":13,"discountRate":0.03,"editionShare":0.8,"independentShare":1,"causalFactors":{"causalScoreToEarnings":0.5,"nonDisplacement":0.9},"causalShare":0.45,"sourceIds":["dobbie-fryer","jpal"],"rationale":"Persistent lottery effect of 0.283 SD on a nationally normed math test six years after admission, mapped to adult earnings with the Chetty et al. percentile association, half treated as causal; net of taxes and lost benefits.","counterfactual":"Lottery losers attended other Harlem and NYC schools; effects are net of those alternatives."}]},{"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"id":"all-hcz-to-students","label":"Charge all HCZ spending to charter students","costUSD":46934721.2,"assumptions":"Attributes every HCZ program to the charter students’ benefit.","incomePathways":[{"people":100,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":35000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":1404.0337499999998,"years":35,"delayYears":13,"discountRate":0.03,"editionShare":0.8,"independentShare":1,"causalFactors":{"causalScoreToEarnings":0.5,"nonDisplacement":0.9},"causalShare":0.45,"sourceIds":["dobbie-fryer","jpal"],"rationale":"Persistent lottery effect of 0.283 SD on a nationally normed math test six years after admission, mapped to adult earnings with the Chetty et al. percentile association, half treated as causal; net of taxes and lost benefits.","counterfactual":"Lottery losers attended other Harlem and NYC schools; effects are net of those alternatives."}]},{"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"id":"full-association","label":"Full score-earnings association is causal","costUSD":3584992.4534066604,"assumptions":"As education economists often assume.","incomePathways":[{"people":100,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":35000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":1404.0337499999998,"years":35,"delayYears":13,"discountRate":0.03,"editionShare":0.8,"independentShare":1,"causalFactors":{"causalScoreToEarnings":1,"nonDisplacement":0.9},"causalShare":0.9,"sourceIds":["dobbie-fryer","jpal"],"rationale":"Persistent lottery effect of 0.283 SD on a nationally normed math test six years after admission, mapped to adult earnings with the Chetty et al. percentile association, half treated as causal; net of taxes and lost benefits.","counterfactual":"Lottery losers attended other Harlem and NYC schools; effects are net of those alternatives."}]},{"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"id":"quarter-association","label":"Quarter of the association is causal","costUSD":3584992.4534066604,"assumptions":"Stronger fade-out of the earnings link.","incomePathways":[{"people":100,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":35000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":1404.0337499999998,"years":35,"delayYears":13,"discountRate":0.03,"editionShare":0.8,"independentShare":1,"causalFactors":{"causalScoreToEarnings":0.25,"nonDisplacement":0.9},"causalShare":0.225,"sourceIds":["dobbie-fryer","jpal"],"rationale":"Persistent lottery effect of 0.283 SD on a nationally normed math test six years after admission, mapped to adult earnings with the Chetty et al. percentile association, half treated as causal; net of taxes and lost benefits.","counterfactual":"Lottery losers attended other Harlem and NYC schools; effects are net of those alternatives."}]},{"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"id":"no-earnings-effect","label":"Test-score gains do not raise adult earnings","costUSD":3584992.4534066604,"assumptions":"J-PAL’s summary finds no lasting difference in graduation or ever enrolling in college.","incomePathways":[]}],"sensitivity":[{"id":"with-charter-cost","label":"Add the charter school’s own spending","pricePer10":14585060.48307148,"assumptions":"Counts Promise Academy’s public per-pupil spending (about 1,500 students, judgment) as an added cost."},{"id":"all-hcz-to-students","label":"Charge all HCZ spending to charter students","pricePer10":43989337.742638715,"assumptions":"Attributes every HCZ program to the charter students’ benefit."},{"id":"full-association","label":"Full score-earnings association is causal","pricePer10":1680008.3158661285,"assumptions":"As education economists often assume."},{"id":"quarter-association","label":"Quarter of the association is causal","pricePer10":6720033.263464514,"assumptions":"Stronger fade-out of the earnings link."},{"id":"no-earnings-effect","label":"Test-score gains do not raise adult earnings","assumptions":"J-PAL’s summary finds no lasting difference in graduation or ever enrolling in college."}]},"sources":[{"id":"dobbie-fryer","title":"The Medium-Term Impacts of High-Achieving Charter Schools on Non-Test Score Outcomes (NBER w19581)","publisher":"Dobbie and Fryer, National Bureau of Economic Research","url":"https://www.nber.org/papers/w19581","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-18"},{"id":"jpal","title":"The Medium-Term Impacts of High-Achieving Charter Schools in the United States","publisher":"J-PAL","url":"https://www.povertyactionlab.org/evaluation/medium-term-impacts-high-achieving-charter-schools-united-states","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-18"},{"id":"spw","title":"Social Programs That Work: Promise Academy (Near Top Tier)","publisher":"Arnold Ventures","url":"https://evidencebasedprograms.org/programs/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-18"},{"id":"hcz-impact","title":"Harlem Children’s Zone 2021–22 Impact Report","publisher":"Harlem Children’s Zone","url":"https://hcz.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/2021-22-Impact-Report.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-18"},{"id":"chetty-2011","title":"How Does Your Kindergarten Classroom Affect Your Earnings?","publisher":"Chetty et al., Quarterly Journal of Economics","url":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjr041","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-18"},{"id":"propublica","title":"Harlem Childrens Zone Inc, Form 990 filings (EIN 23-7112974)","publisher":"IRS, hosted by ProPublica","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/237112974","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-18"},{"id":"propublica-charter","title":"Harlem Childrens Zone Promise Academy Charter School, Form 990 filings (EIN 76-0756768)","publisher":"IRS, hosted by ProPublica","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/760756768","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-18"},{"id":"income-cg","title":"Cost-effectiveness: health and log-income comparison","publisher":"Coefficient Giving","url":"https://coefficientgiving.org/research/cost-effectiveness/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-18"}]}