{"edition":"new-york-city","organization":"Bottom Line","organizationId":"ein:04-3351427","boundaryVersion":"OMB-23-01-2023-07-21","updated":"2026-10-18","display":{"metric":{"id":"daly-equivalent","years":1,"label":"DALY","priceLabel":"$ / DALY"},"priceUSD":183475.1934693741,"canonicalPriceUSDPerTenEquivalentYears":1834751.934693741,"conversion":"display only; QALYs and income equivalents are not measured clinical DALYs"},"listDisplay":{"metric":{"id":"daly-equivalent","years":1,"label":"DALY","priceLabel":"$ / DALY"},"priceUSD":183475.1934693741,"canonicalPriceUSDPerTenEquivalentYears":1834751.934693741,"conversion":"display only; QALYs and income equivalents are not measured clinical DALYs"},"model":{"version":"bottom-line-nyc-beta-income-20261018b","costScope":"FY2025 whole-organization expense divided by new entrants derived from program structure (about 31% of students served).","geographicAttribution":"New York City Direct students; 0.85 of adult earning years assumed lived in the NYC metro.","formula":"Price = 10 × cost per entrant ÷ [0.5 × discounted years(35, from year 6) × ln(1 + premium × net share ÷ base) × BA effect × causal × non-positional × NYC share]. Health = 0.","counterfactual":"Randomized control students with ordinary school counseling and any other help.","attribution":"A gift is credited with the average effect of an added entrant at whole-organization average cost; whether a gift adds a New York student is unverified.","uncertainty":"Dominated by the earnings premium of the extra degrees and how much is positional, then by current cost per entrant.","nativeOutcomes":"Bachelor’s degree within five to seven years, college quality at enrollment; earnings follow-up pending.","inputs":[{"name":"FY2025 total expense","value":25813070,"unit":"USD","basis":"observed","rationale":"Form 990, fiscal year ending June 2025.","sourceIds":["propublica"]},{"name":"Students served (current)","value":7000,"unit":"students","basis":"observed","rationale":"About 7,000 across six regions; 6,679 in the 2023 annual report.","sourceIds":["bl-site","bl-annual-2023"]},{"name":"Share continuing into Success","value":0.5,"unit":"share","basis":"observed","rationale":"About 50% of Access students enroll at a target institution.","sourceIds":["bl-spw"]},{"name":"Average years in Success","value":4.5,"unit":"years","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Up to six years after high school, allowing for graduation and attrition.","sourceIds":["bl-spw"]},{"name":"Trial cost per offered student","value":4161,"unit":"USD","basis":"observed","rationale":"Access plus Success, including overhead.","sourceIds":["bl-nber-2025"]},{"name":"Bachelor’s degree effect","value":0.08,"unit":"degrees per offered student","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Between NYC 5-year +7.2 pp, pooled +7.6 pp and 7-year +10 pp.","sourceIds":["bl-nber-2025","bl-spw"]},{"name":"Gross degree premium","value":12000,"unit":"USD per year","basis":"judgment","rationale":"About 34% above a $35,000 base; observational sheepskin premiums are about 30%, and marginal four-year admission raised earnings 22% with half graduating.","sourceIds":["zimmerman-2014","sheepskin"]},{"name":"Net welfare share","value":0.55,"unit":"share","basis":"judgment","rationale":"After taxes, lost benefits and extra schooling time.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"Causal share of premium","value":0.75,"unit":"share","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Marginal graduates may gain less than average graduates.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"Non-positional share","value":0.8,"unit":"share","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Part of a degree’s value may come at others’ expense.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"NYC share of adult years","value":0.85,"unit":"share","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Allows for moving away after college.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"CPI adjustment 2016 to 2025","value":1.33,"unit":"ratio","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Approximate CPI-U change.","sourceIds":[]}],"scenarios":[{"id":"central","label":"Whole-organization cost per new entrant, 8-point degree gain","costUSD":1198463.9642857143,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"assumptions":"FY2025 expense over new entrants, where entrants = served / (1 + 0.5 continuing x 4.5 years in Success); +8 pp bachelor’s degrees; $12,000 premium, 75% causal, 80% non-positional, 55% net; 85% NYC residence.","incomePathways":[{"people":100,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":35000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":6600.000000000001,"years":35,"delayYears":6,"discountRate":0.03,"editionShare":0.85,"independentShare":1,"causalFactors":{"baEffect":0.08,"causalPremium":0.75,"nonDisplacement":0.8},"causalShare":0.048,"sourceIds":["bl-nber-2025","bl-av"],"rationale":"Additional bachelor’s degrees per offered student from the randomized trial, times a causal BA earnings premium for marginal graduates, net of taxes, lost benefits and extra schooling time.","counterfactual":"Randomized control students could use school counselors, other advising and any college; the degree effect is net of those alternatives."}]},{"id":"previous-review-20261018","label":"First in-depth review, 18 October 2026 (superseded)","costUSD":719994.5725407994,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"assumptions":"FY2023 expense over an assumed 40% of 6,679 served students; retained for comparison.","incomePathways":[{"people":100,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":35000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":6600.000000000001,"years":35,"delayYears":6,"discountRate":0.03,"editionShare":0.85,"independentShare":1,"causalFactors":{"baEffect":0.08,"causalPremium":0.75,"nonDisplacement":0.8},"causalShare":0.048,"sourceIds":["bl-nber-2025","bl-av"],"rationale":"Additional bachelor’s degrees per offered student from the randomized trial, times a causal BA earnings premium for marginal graduates, net of taxes, lost benefits and extra schooling time.","counterfactual":"Randomized control students could use school counselors, other advising and any college; the degree effect is net of those alternatives."}]},{"id":"mature-region-cost","label":"Mature-region cost halfway between trial and current average","costUSD":875938.4821428572,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"assumptions":"New regions (Ohio, Detroit, Houston) carry start-up costs; NYC may cost less than the national average.","incomePathways":[{"people":100,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":35000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":6600.000000000001,"years":35,"delayYears":6,"discountRate":0.03,"editionShare":0.85,"independentShare":1,"causalFactors":{"baEffect":0.08,"causalPremium":0.75,"nonDisplacement":0.8},"causalShare":0.048,"sourceIds":["bl-nber-2025","bl-av"],"rationale":"Additional bachelor’s degrees per offered student from the randomized trial, times a causal BA earnings premium for marginal graduates, net of taxes, lost benefits and extra schooling time.","counterfactual":"Randomized control students could use school counselors, other advising and any college; the degree effect is net of those alternatives."}]},{"id":"trial-cost","label":"Full Access + Success cost measured in the trial","costUSD":553413,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"assumptions":"Central benefits at the trial’s $4,161 per offered student, inflated to 2025.","incomePathways":[{"people":100,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":35000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":6600.000000000001,"years":35,"delayYears":6,"discountRate":0.03,"editionShare":0.85,"independentShare":1,"causalFactors":{"baEffect":0.08,"causalPremium":0.75,"nonDisplacement":0.8},"causalShare":0.048,"sourceIds":["bl-nber-2025","bl-av"],"rationale":"Additional bachelor’s degrees per offered student from the randomized trial, times a causal BA earnings premium for marginal graduates, net of taxes, lost benefits and extra schooling time.","counterfactual":"Randomized control students could use school counselors, other advising and any college; the degree effect is net of those alternatives."}]},{"id":"nyc-five-year-effect","label":"NYC five-year effect only (+7.2 pp)","costUSD":1198463.9642857143,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"assumptions":"Uses the NYC site estimate at five years.","incomePathways":[{"people":100,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":35000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":6600.000000000001,"years":35,"delayYears":6,"discountRate":0.03,"editionShare":0.85,"independentShare":1,"causalFactors":{"baEffect":0.072,"causalPremium":0.75,"nonDisplacement":0.8},"causalShare":0.043199999999999995,"sourceIds":["bl-nber-2025","bl-av"],"rationale":"Additional bachelor’s degrees per offered student from the randomized trial, times a causal BA earnings premium for marginal graduates, net of taxes, lost benefits and extra schooling time.","counterfactual":"Randomized control students could use school counselors, other advising and any college; the degree effect is net of those alternatives."}]},{"id":"first-cohort-six-year","label":"First cohort six-year effect (+9.6 pp)","costUSD":1198463.9642857143,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"assumptions":"Uses the class-of-2015 six-year estimate.","incomePathways":[{"people":100,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":35000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":6600.000000000001,"years":35,"delayYears":6,"discountRate":0.03,"editionShare":0.85,"independentShare":1,"causalFactors":{"baEffect":0.096,"causalPremium":0.75,"nonDisplacement":0.8},"causalShare":0.05760000000000001,"sourceIds":["bl-nber-2025","bl-av"],"rationale":"Additional bachelor’s degrees per offered student from the randomized trial, times a causal BA earnings premium for marginal graduates, net of taxes, lost benefits and extra schooling time.","counterfactual":"Randomized control students could use school counselors, other advising and any college; the degree effect is net of those alternatives."}]},{"id":"low-premium","label":"Smaller degree premium ($6,000)","costUSD":1198463.9642857143,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"assumptions":"Marginal graduates gain less than average.","incomePathways":[{"people":100,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":35000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":3300.0000000000005,"years":35,"delayYears":6,"discountRate":0.03,"editionShare":0.85,"independentShare":1,"causalFactors":{"baEffect":0.08,"causalPremium":0.75,"nonDisplacement":0.8},"causalShare":0.048,"sourceIds":["bl-nber-2025","bl-av"],"rationale":"Additional bachelor’s degrees per offered student from the randomized trial, times a causal BA earnings premium for marginal graduates, net of taxes, lost benefits and extra schooling time.","counterfactual":"Randomized control students could use school counselors, other advising and any college; the degree effect is net of those alternatives."}]},{"id":"mostly-signaling","label":"Half the premium is positional","costUSD":1198463.9642857143,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"assumptions":"More of the degree value displaces other workers.","incomePathways":[{"people":100,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":35000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":6600.000000000001,"years":35,"delayYears":6,"discountRate":0.03,"editionShare":0.85,"independentShare":1,"causalFactors":{"baEffect":0.08,"causalPremium":0.75,"nonDisplacement":0.5},"causalShare":0.03,"sourceIds":["bl-nber-2025","bl-av"],"rationale":"Additional bachelor’s degrees per offered student from the randomized trial, times a causal BA earnings premium for marginal graduates, net of taxes, lost benefits and extra schooling time.","counterfactual":"Randomized control students could use school counselors, other advising and any college; the degree effect is net of those alternatives."}]},{"id":"all-local","label":"All adult years in the NYC metro","costUSD":1198463.9642857143,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"assumptions":"No out-migration discount.","incomePathways":[{"people":100,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":35000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":6600.000000000001,"years":35,"delayYears":6,"discountRate":0.03,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"causalFactors":{"baEffect":0.08,"causalPremium":0.75,"nonDisplacement":0.8},"causalShare":0.048,"sourceIds":["bl-nber-2025","bl-av"],"rationale":"Additional bachelor’s degrees per offered student from the randomized trial, times a causal BA earnings premium for marginal graduates, net of taxes, lost benefits and extra schooling time.","counterfactual":"Randomized control students could use school counselors, other advising and any college; the degree effect is net of those alternatives."}]},{"id":"discount-5pct","label":"5% discount rate","costUSD":1198463.9642857143,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"assumptions":"Higher discount rate.","incomePathways":[{"people":100,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":35000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":6600.000000000001,"years":35,"delayYears":6,"discountRate":0.05,"editionShare":0.85,"independentShare":1,"causalFactors":{"baEffect":0.08,"causalPremium":0.75,"nonDisplacement":0.8},"causalShare":0.048,"sourceIds":["bl-nber-2025","bl-av"],"rationale":"Additional bachelor’s degrees per offered student from the randomized trial, times a causal BA earnings premium for marginal graduates, net of taxes, lost benefits and extra schooling time.","counterfactual":"Randomized control students could use school counselors, other advising and any college; the degree effect is net of those alternatives."}]},{"id":"no-earnings-effect","label":"Extra degrees do not raise earnings","costUSD":1198463.9642857143,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"assumptions":"Degrees are pure signals with no causal earnings gain.","incomePathways":[]}],"sensitivity":[{"id":"previous-review-20261018","label":"First in-depth review, 18 October 2026 (superseded)","pricePer10":1102253.7800922105,"assumptions":"FY2023 expense over an assumed 40% of 6,679 served students; retained for comparison."},{"id":"mature-region-cost","label":"Mature-region cost halfway between trial and current average","pricePer10":1340991.3628418164,"assumptions":"New regions (Ohio, Detroit, Houston) carry start-up costs; NYC may cost less than the national average."},{"id":"trial-cost","label":"Full Access + Success cost measured in the trial","pricePer10":847230.7909898919,"assumptions":"Central benefits at the trial’s $4,161 per offered student, inflated to 2025."},{"id":"nyc-five-year-effect","label":"NYC five-year effect only (+7.2 pp)","pricePer10":2038613.2607708236,"assumptions":"Uses the NYC site estimate at five years."},{"id":"first-cohort-six-year","label":"First cohort six-year effect (+9.6 pp)","pricePer10":1528959.9455781172,"assumptions":"Uses the class-of-2015 six-year estimate."},{"id":"low-premium","label":"Smaller degree premium ($6,000)","pricePer10":3517766.9951280165,"assumptions":"Marginal graduates gain less than average."},{"id":"mostly-signaling","label":"Half the premium is positional","pricePer10":2935603.0955099855,"assumptions":"More of the degree value displaces other workers."},{"id":"all-local","label":"All adult years in the NYC metro","pricePer10":1559539.1444896795,"assumptions":"No out-migration discount."},{"id":"discount-5pct","label":"5% discount rate","pricePer10":2650684.3791001476,"assumptions":"Higher discount rate."},{"id":"no-earnings-effect","label":"Extra degrees do not raise earnings","assumptions":"Degrees are pure signals with no causal earnings gain."}],"missingInputs":["Measured earnings of trial participants (follow-up due 2026).","New Access entrants per year by region and cost per added New York student.","Whether added funding reaches New York or new regions."]},"sources":[{"id":"bl-nber-2025","title":"Increasing Degree Attainment Among Low-Income Students: The Role of Intensive Advising and College Quality (NBER w33921)","publisher":"National Bureau of Economic Research (Barr and Castleman)","url":"https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w33921/w33921.pdf","published":"2025-06-01","retrieved":"2026-10-18"},{"id":"bl-spw","title":"Bottom Line: program evidence summary","publisher":"Arnold Ventures, Social Programs That Work","url":"https://evidencebasedprograms.org/programs/bottom-line/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-18"},{"id":"bl-av","title":"Long-term follow-up of the RCT of Bottom Line on employment, earnings and debt","publisher":"Arnold Ventures","url":"https://arnoldventures.org/stories/long-term-follow-up-of-the-rct-of-bottom-line-to-evaluate-the-impacts-of-a-successful-college-advising-program-on-employment-earnings-and-debt-accumulation","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-18"},{"id":"bl-annual-2023","title":"Bottom Line Annual Report 2023","publisher":"Bottom Line","url":"https://bottomline.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/BL-Annual-Report-2023.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-18"},{"id":"propublica","title":"The Bottom Line Inc, Form 990 filings (EIN 04-3351427)","publisher":"IRS, hosted by ProPublica","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/43351427","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-18"},{"id":"bl-site","title":"About Bottom Line: history and regions","publisher":"Bottom Line","url":"https://www.bottomline.org/?p=1213","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-18"},{"id":"zimmerman-2014","title":"The Returns to College Admission for Academically Marginal Students","publisher":"Zimmerman, Journal of Labor Economics (IZA DP6107)","url":"https://www.iza.org/publications/dp6107","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-18"},{"id":"sheepskin","title":"Education signaling and sheepskin estimates (lecture notes)","publisher":"Bryan Caplan, George Mason University","url":"https://econfaculty.gmu.edu/bcaplan/e496/educ4.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-18"},{"id":"income-cg","title":"Cost-effectiveness: health and log-income comparison","publisher":"Coefficient Giving","url":"https://coefficientgiving.org/research/cost-effectiveness/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-18"}]}