{"edition":"los-angeles","organization":"East Yard Communities for Environmental Justice","organizationId":"org:east-yard-communities-for-environmental-justice","boundaryVersion":"OMB-23-01-2023-07-21","updated":"2026-09-14","model":{"version":"la-eycej-air-implementation-judgment-v2","costScope":"Three years of full recorded recipient gross cost; selected air health component. Additional external implementation resources unknown.","geographicAttribution":"g=.95 judgment for modeled cohort health in LA/Orange; not a headquarters allocation.","formula":"C=3*1562510=4687530; beta=ln(1.07)/10; h1=h0*exp(-beta*delta). S0(t)=exp(-h0*t); S1(t)=exp(-h1*min(t,T)-h0*max(0,t-T)). Qconditional=N*u*integral(0..L)[(S1-S0)*exp(-.03*t)]dt. QLA=Qconditional*p*a*b*g. Central Qconditional=53.6731444198, QLA=.254947435994. Price10=10*C/QLA.","counterfactual":"Adopted port commitments, public cleanup and partner work continue. delta represents only a further implementation improvement conditional on success, not all pollution removed. p precedes coalition a and gift-response b. The central assumes exposure improvement begins during the three-year spending effort, without an extra implementation lag. A three-year delay alone raises the price by exp(0.09), about 9.4%.","attribution":"One air-implementation scenario; no duplicate campaign credit. Closed-cohort survival prevents repeated lifetime gains. No hub, lead or housing benefits added.","uncertainty":"Explicit subjective conditional central, not empirical success rates or complete portfolio expected value. Positive joint cases are not confidence bounds. Zero and harm remain possible.","nativeOutcomes":"Conditional .1 ug/m3 reduction for100,000 older adults for5years equals50,000 person-ug/m3-years. This target-scale hypothesis is unobserved. Cohort survival gives53.673 conditional QALYs before success, attribution, funding and geography.","inputs":[{"name":"Cannual","value":1562510,"unit":"USD annual gross cost","basis":"observed","rationale":"Original accepted return plus netted event cost.","sourceIds":["eycej-99024"]},{"name":"Ycost","value":3,"unit":"years of organizing cost","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Bounded prospective effort.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"N","value":100000,"unit":"older adults","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Unverified affected population; test10,000–500,000.","sourceIds":["eycej-port-addendum"]},{"name":"delta","value":0.1,"unit":"ug/m3 extra annual PM2.5 reduction","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Beyond baseline; not agency forecast; test .01–.3.","sourceIds":["eycej-port-addendum"]},{"name":"beta","value":0.006765864847381486,"unit":"log hazard per ug/m3","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Representative source anchor within reported full-cohort HR1.06–1.08 per10.","sourceIds":["eycej-pm-causal"]},{"name":"h0","value":0.04,"unit":"annual mortality hazard","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Older-adult prior, not local observed rate; test .02–.06.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"T","value":5,"unit":"years of lower hazard","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Hazard effect then stops.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"L","value":10,"unit":"years of survival follow-up","basis":"judgment","rationale":"No benefit thereafter; test5–15.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"u","value":0.8,"unit":"survival quality weight","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Not measured utility; test .6–.9.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"p","value":0.2,"unit":"specified implementation success probability","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Not empirically calibrated; test .05–.5.","sourceIds":["eycej-port-letter"]},{"name":"a","value":0.1,"unit":"EYCEJ coalition contribution","basis":"judgment","rationale":"No full credit across partners; test .03–.25.","sourceIds":["eycej-port-letter"]},{"name":"b","value":0.25,"unit":"ordinary-support funding response","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Assets/capital priorities create substitution; test .05–.5.","sourceIds":["eycej-99024","eycej-transition"]},{"name":"g","value":0.95,"unit":"LA/Orange benefit share","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Outcome geography not measured; test .8–1.","sourceIds":["eycej-members"]},{"name":"d","value":0.03,"unit":"annual continuous discount","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Applied in finite integral.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"Qother","value":null,"unit":"other portfolio health","basis":"unknown","rationale":"Lead, tenant, food and hub pathways unpriced.","sourceIds":["eycej-campaigns"]}],"scenarios":[{"id":"central","label":"central","costUSD":4687530,"allPopulationQalys":0.26836572209909837,"editionQalys":0.25494743599414343,"assumptions":"N=100000 older adult cohort; delta=0.1 ug/m3 conditional extra PM2.5 reduction; hazard=0.04; exposure years=5; horizon=10; utility=0.8; success p=0.2; EYCEJ coalition share a=0.1; funding b=0.25; local g=0.95; beta=ln(1.07)/10; discount=.03. All except source-anchored beta and observed annual cost are explicit judgments, not confidence bounds."},{"id":"low","label":"low","costUSD":4687530,"allPopulationQalys":0.000004209381870249317,"editionQalys":0.000003367505496199454,"assumptions":"N=10000 older adult cohort; delta=0.01 ug/m3 conditional extra PM2.5 reduction; hazard=0.02; exposure years=2; horizon=5; utility=0.6; success p=0.05; EYCEJ coalition share a=0.03; funding b=0.05; local g=0.8; beta=ln(1.07)/10; discount=.03. All except source-anchored beta and observed annual cost are explicit judgments, not confidence bounds."},{"id":"high","label":"high","costUSD":4687530,"allPopulationQalys":103.82684628421127,"editionQalys":103.82684628421127,"assumptions":"N=500000 older adult cohort; delta=0.3 ug/m3 conditional extra PM2.5 reduction; hazard=0.06; exposure years=5; horizon=15; utility=0.9; success p=0.5; EYCEJ coalition share a=0.25; funding b=0.5; local g=1; beta=ln(1.07)/10; discount=.03. All except source-anchored beta and observed annual cost are explicit judgments, not confidence bounds."},{"id":"zero","label":"No additional implementation","costUSD":4687530,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"assumptions":"p,b or delta=0."},{"id":"adverse","label":"Illustrative net harm","costUSD":4687530,"allPopulationQalys":-1,"editionQalys":-1,"assumptions":"One LA QALY net harm from displacement/delay; not observed."},{"id":"portfolio-unknown","label":"Whole portfolio unestimated","costUSD":4687530,"allPopulationQalys":null,"editionQalys":null,"assumptions":"Omitted pathways not assumed zero."}],"sensitivity":["Exposure footprint and p/a/b dominate; none follows from signing a letter.","Additional implementation resources E change price to10*(4687530+E)/QLA.","No hub benefits without capital/operation costs.","Closed-cohort survival and finite horizon prevent repeat life-expectancy credit."],"missingInputs":["Specific extra implementation exposure footprint.","Success and coalition counterfactual.","Marginal ordinary-gift allocation.","External implementation costs.","Other portfolio health."]},"sources":[{"id":"eycej-99024","title":"2024 original Form990","publisher":"East Yard Communities for Environmental Justice / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/465685097/202512769349301586/full","published":"2025-10-03","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"eycej-99023","title":"2023 original Form990","publisher":"East Yard Communities for Environmental Justice / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/465685097/202433179349305163/full","published":"2024-11-12","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"eycej-99022","title":"2022 amended original Form 990","publisher":"East Yard Communities for Environmental Justice / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/465685097/202421919349301957/full","published":"2024-07-10","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"eycej-members","title":"Membership and 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Beach","url":"https://www.aqmd.gov/docs/default-source/ports-ca/addendum-to-ports-ca_final-approved-sept-2026.pdf?sfvrsn=a4db637e_2","published":"2026-09-10","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"eycej-port-letter","title":"Coalition concerns about draft ports agreement","publisher":"East Yard, CCA, Earthjustice and other signatories","url":"https://www.aqmd.gov/docs/default-source/planning/fbmsm-docs/2025-10-01-final-scaqmd-gov-board-ltr-re-draft-cooperative-agreement.pdf?sfvrsn=eaaa6c7e_2","published":"2025-10-01","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"eycej-monitor-letter","title":"Refinery decommissioning monitoring comments","publisher":"CBE, East Yard, APEN, CCA and Earthjustice","url":"https://www.aqmd.gov/docs/default-source/rule-book/proposed-rules/rule-1180-and-1180.1/2026/comment-letters/2026-05-11-coalition.pdf?sfvrsn=cc32677e_2","published":"2026-05-11","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"eycej-boston-rct","title":"Randomized soil lead abatement trial","publisher":"Weitzman et al. / JAMA","url":"https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/405094","published":"1993-04-07","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"eycej-home-rct","title":"Residential lead-hazard randomized trial","publisher":"Braun et al. / JAMA Pediatrics","url":"https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2696978","published":"2018-08-06","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"eycej-pm-causal","title":"Evaluating long-term PM2.5 exposure and mortality with causal inference","publisher":"Wu et al. / Science Advances","url":"https://xiaowu.io/publication/wu2020evaluating/wu2020evaluating.pdf","published":"2020-07-17","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"eycej-barstow","title":"Current Barstow International Gateway challenge and coalition","publisher":"Earthjustice, counsel for East Yard and other plaintiffs","url":"https://earthjustice.org/press/2026/lawsuit-challenges-approval-of-nations-largest-rail-facility-in-california","published":"2026-07-02","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"eycej-rpli","title":"Resilient Power Leadership Initiative awards, 2021 East Yard entry","publisher":"Clean Energy Group","url":"https://www.cleanegroup.org/initiatives/resilient-power-leadership-initiative/awards/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"}]}