{"edition":"los-angeles","organization":"Communities for a Better Environment","organizationId":"org:communities-for-a-better-environment","boundaryVersion":"OMB-23-01-2023-07-21","updated":"2026-09-14","model":{"version":"la-cbe-judgment-partial-health-v2","costScope":"Five full latest-year gross reported recipient budgets, across all programs and support, normalized linearly to a $10,000 ordinary gift. No policy-only cost carveout. External social resources unpriced.","geographicAttribution":"Only health within Los Angeles and Orange counties (FIPS 06037, 06059) is counted. The 250,000 older adults are an analyst-selected conditional exposure cohort, not an office-count allocation or observed participant total. Riverside and San Bernardino outcomes are excluded. allPopulationQalys equals local quantified branch only, not an assumption that the whole portfolio is local.","formula":"h1=h0*exp(-ln(HR)/10*transport*pm); rho=ln(1.03); F(a,t)=(1-exp(-a*t))/a. qD=u*(F(h1+rho,T)-F(h0+rho,T)). a=min(A,T). qT=u*(F(h1+rho,a)-F(h0+rho,a)+(1-exp(-(h0-h1)*a))*(exp(-(h1+rho)*a)-exp(-(h1+rho)*T))/(h1+rho)). q=(f*qD+(1-f)*qT)/1.03^L. Qgift=10000/(E*Y)*b*(p*N*q-harm). Price=100000/Qgift if positive. N is cohort alive at implementation; no extra survival-to-implementation multiplier. Costs are constant-real full budgets; no cost discount haircut.","counterfactual":"Already-completed properties, adopted air rules, public cleanup appropriations and work by regulators, residents and partner organizations continue without the marginal support. Acceleration must count only the exposure interval gained, not lifetime no-cleanup benefit. Technical/legal and organizing capacity changes the probability of additional enforceable refinery/fuel-related emissions controls beyond existing permits and Rule 1109.1. Current World Oil and Paramount disputes establish a live mechanism, not the assumed probability or PM reduction. HF accident prevention, soil lead, Bay Area activity and non-health justice value are not converted to PM mortality.","attribution":"p is the incremental recipient-specific probability effect of a five-year whole-organization effort versus partner/regulator action without it. b models donation-sensitive capacity after replacement funding, distinct from coalition p. Local linear extrapolation to a small gift is judgment and can fail at lumpy capacity thresholds.","uncertainty":"Explicit judgment central, not identified causal charity effectiveness. Wide scenarios include clinical-null, no-policy-effect and harm. This is not a complete portfolio estimate or a reason to override donor diligence.","nativeOutcomes":"Additional annual ambient PM2.5 exposure reduction among an explicitly modeled older cohort; finite discounted all-cause survival differences, without adding overlapping mortality/morbidity or lead/IQ units.","inputs":[{"name":"E","value":7882417,"unit":"USD per recipient year","basis":"observed","rationale":"Latest original filing, full reported gross expense.","sourceIds":["cbe-99024"]},{"name":"Y","value":5,"unit":"budget years","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"N","value":250000,"unit":"local older people alive at implementation","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Conditional policy exposure cohort selected for plausibility, not measured reach or demographic allocation.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"Nall","value":250000,"unit":"people in all quantified branches","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"pm","value":0.3,"unit":"micrograms/m³ sustained ambient reduction","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"p","value":0.08,"unit":"incremental policy probability","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Low incremental probability over five years reflects multiple actors, existing rules and legal reversal; unelicited analyst judgment.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"b","value":0.35,"unit":"marginal funding response","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Replacement funding/reserves uncertainty; smaller CBE response reflects materially larger reported unrestricted balances.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"HR","value":1.06,"unit":"hazard ratio per 10 micrograms/m³ higher PM2.5","basis":"observed","rationale":"External older US Medicare cohort estimate; conditional causal interpretation, not a CCA/CBE trial.","sourceIds":["wu"]},{"name":"transport","value":0.7,"unit":"multiplier on log HR","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"h0","value":0.035,"unit":"annual all-cause mortality hazard","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"u","value":0.75,"unit":"utility among survivors","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"T","value":10,"unit":"finite years after implementation","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"L","value":3,"unit":"years to implementation","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"f","value":0.5,"unit":"durable branch share","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"A","value":3,"unit":"years of acceleration","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"harm","value":0,"unit":"other QALYs lost per five-year effort before b","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]}],"scenarios":[{"id":"central","label":"Judgment central: partial older-adult air health","costUSD":10000,"qDurable":0.0010563239389633772,"qTiming":0.0005740599451655204,"qConditional":0.0007460161065521845,"fullBudgetEditionQalys":5.2221127458652905,"editionQalys":0.0013250029136660216,"allPopulationQalys":0.0013250029136660216,"costPer10Qalys":75471532.15181975,"inputs":{"E":7882417,"Y":5,"N":250000,"Nall":250000,"pm":0.3,"p":0.08,"b":0.35,"HR":1.06,"transport":0.7,"h0":0.035,"u":0.75,"T":10,"L":3,"f":0.5,"A":3,"harm":0},"assumptions":"All nonfinancial parameters except the external HR are explicitly analyst judgment; scenario bundle is not an empirical interval. Full five-year expense denominator; no gift restriction assumed."},{"id":"favorable","label":"Favorable joint assumptions, not a confidence bound","costUSD":10000,"qDurable":0.007855946741300279,"qTiming":0.003283104864733869,"qConditional":0.00762713275854396,"fullBudgetEditionQalys":762.7132758543961,"editionQalys":0.1935226912898407,"allPopulationQalys":0.1935226912898407,"costPer10Qalys":516735.2693035314,"inputs":{"E":7882417,"Y":5,"N":500000,"Nall":500000,"pm":0.6,"p":0.25,"b":0.8,"HR":1.06,"transport":1,"h0":0.05,"u":0.85,"T":15,"L":1,"f":1,"A":3,"harm":0},"assumptions":"All nonfinancial parameters except the external HR are explicitly analyst judgment; scenario bundle is not an empirical interval. Full five-year expense denominator; no gift restriction assumed."},{"id":"poor","label":"Poor joint assumptions, not a confidence bound","costUSD":10000,"qDurable":0.00000427686804291838,"qTiming":0.0000024078248410232297,"qConditional":0.000002077010859125041,"fullBudgetEditionQalys":0.00010385054295625205,"editionQalys":2.6349923622729437e-8,"allPopulationQalys":2.6349923622729437e-8,"costPer10Qalys":3795077413952.7305,"inputs":{"E":7882417,"Y":5,"N":50000,"Nall":50000,"pm":0.05,"p":0.01,"b":0.1,"HR":1.06,"transport":0.3,"h0":0.02,"u":0.6,"T":3,"L":5,"f":0,"A":1,"harm":0},"assumptions":"All nonfinancial parameters except the external HR are explicitly analyst judgment; scenario bundle is not an empirical interval. Full five-year expense denominator; no gift restriction assumed."},{"id":"low-attribution","label":"One-tenth central incremental policy probability","costUSD":10000,"qDurable":0.0010563239389633772,"qTiming":0.0005740599451655204,"qConditional":0.0007460161065521845,"fullBudgetEditionQalys":0.522211274586529,"editionQalys":0.00013250029136660217,"allPopulationQalys":0.00013250029136660217,"costPer10Qalys":754715321.5181975,"inputs":{"E":7882417,"Y":5,"N":250000,"Nall":250000,"pm":0.3,"p":0.008,"b":0.35,"HR":1.06,"transport":0.7,"h0":0.035,"u":0.75,"T":10,"L":3,"f":0.5,"A":3,"harm":0},"assumptions":"All nonfinancial parameters except the external HR are explicitly analyst judgment; scenario bundle is not an empirical interval. Full five-year expense denominator; no gift restriction assumed."},{"id":"replacement","label":"Strong replacement funding","costUSD":10000,"qDurable":0.0010563239389633772,"qTiming":0.0005740599451655204,"qConditional":0.0007460161065521845,"fullBudgetEditionQalys":1.4920322131043688,"editionQalys":0.0003785722610474348,"allPopulationQalys":0.0003785722610474348,"costPer10Qalys":264150362.53136912,"inputs":{"E":7882417,"Y":5,"N":250000,"Nall":250000,"pm":0.3,"p":0.08,"b":0.1,"HR":1.06,"transport":0.7,"h0":0.035,"u":0.75,"T":10,"L":3,"f":0.5,"A":3,"harm":0},"assumptions":"All nonfinancial parameters except the external HR are explicitly analyst judgment; scenario bundle is not an empirical interval. Full five-year expense denominator; no gift restriction assumed."},{"id":"durable-only","label":"Entire effect durable within finite ten years","costUSD":10000,"qDurable":0.0010563239389633772,"qTiming":0.0005740599451655204,"qConditional":0.0009666860423174107,"fullBudgetEditionQalys":6.766802296221875,"editionQalys":0.0017169358830475157,"allPopulationQalys":0.0017169358830475157,"costPer10Qalys":58243293.175574295,"inputs":{"E":7882417,"Y":5,"N":250000,"Nall":250000,"pm":0.3,"p":0.08,"b":0.35,"HR":1.06,"transport":0.7,"h0":0.035,"u":0.75,"T":10,"L":3,"f":1,"A":3,"harm":0},"assumptions":"All nonfinancial parameters except the external HR are explicitly analyst judgment; scenario bundle is not an empirical interval. Full five-year expense denominator; no gift restriction assumed."},{"id":"timing-only","label":"Only three-year acceleration; finite survival comparison","costUSD":10000,"qDurable":0.0010563239389633772,"qTiming":0.0005740599451655204,"qConditional":0.0005253461707869581,"fullBudgetEditionQalys":3.6774231955087067,"editionQalys":0.0009330699442845277,"allPopulationQalys":0.0009330699442845277,"costPer10Qalys":107173101.66568424,"inputs":{"E":7882417,"Y":5,"N":250000,"Nall":250000,"pm":0.3,"p":0.08,"b":0.35,"HR":1.06,"transport":0.7,"h0":0.035,"u":0.75,"T":10,"L":3,"f":0,"A":3,"harm":0},"assumptions":"All nonfinancial parameters except the external HR are explicitly analyst judgment; scenario bundle is not an empirical interval. Full five-year expense denominator; no gift restriction assumed."},{"id":"three-year-cost-mean","label":"Comparable three-year gross expense mean","costUSD":10000,"qDurable":0.0010563239389633772,"qTiming":0.0005740599451655204,"qConditional":0.0007460161065521845,"fullBudgetEditionQalys":5.2221127458652905,"editionQalys":0.0016767366521887274,"allPopulationQalys":0.0016767366521887274,"costPer10Qalys":59639657.70621465,"inputs":{"E":6228900.333333333,"Y":5,"N":250000,"Nall":250000,"pm":0.3,"p":0.08,"b":0.35,"HR":1.06,"transport":0.7,"h0":0.035,"u":0.75,"T":10,"L":3,"f":0.5,"A":3,"harm":0},"assumptions":"All nonfinancial parameters except the external HR are explicitly analyst judgment; scenario bundle is not an empirical interval. Full five-year expense denominator; no gift restriction assumed."},{"id":"clinical-null","label":"No causal clinical transfer","costUSD":10000,"qDurable":0,"qTiming":0,"qConditional":0,"fullBudgetEditionQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"allPopulationQalys":0,"costPer10Qalys":null,"inputs":{"E":7882417,"Y":5,"N":250000,"Nall":250000,"pm":0.3,"p":0.08,"b":0.35,"HR":1.06,"transport":0,"h0":0.035,"u":0.75,"T":10,"L":3,"f":0.5,"A":3,"harm":0},"assumptions":"All nonfinancial parameters except the external HR are explicitly analyst judgment; scenario bundle is not an empirical interval. Full five-year expense denominator; no gift restriction assumed."},{"id":"zero","label":"No additional policy or health effect","costUSD":10000,"qDurable":0.0010563239389633772,"qTiming":0.0005740599451655204,"qConditional":0.0007460161065521845,"fullBudgetEditionQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"allPopulationQalys":0,"costPer10Qalys":null,"inputs":{"E":7882417,"Y":5,"N":250000,"Nall":250000,"pm":0.3,"p":0,"b":0.35,"HR":1.06,"transport":0.7,"h0":0.035,"u":0.75,"T":10,"L":3,"f":0.5,"A":3,"harm":0},"assumptions":"All nonfinancial parameters except the external HR are explicitly analyst judgment; scenario bundle is not an empirical interval. Full five-year expense denominator; no gift restriction assumed."},{"id":"harm","label":"No policy benefit and ten QALYs of other harm per five-year effort","costUSD":10000,"qDurable":0.0010563239389633772,"qTiming":0.0005740599451655204,"qConditional":0.0007460161065521845,"fullBudgetEditionQalys":-3.5,"editionQalys":-0.0008880524844092872,"allPopulationQalys":-0.0008880524844092872,"costPer10Qalys":null,"inputs":{"E":7882417,"Y":5,"N":250000,"Nall":250000,"pm":0.3,"p":0,"b":0.35,"HR":1.06,"transport":0.7,"h0":0.035,"u":0.75,"T":10,"L":3,"f":0.5,"A":3,"harm":10},"assumptions":"All nonfinancial parameters except the external HR are explicitly analyst judgment; scenario bundle is not an empirical interval. Full five-year expense denominator; no gift restriction assumed."}],"sensitivity":["Favorable/poor bundles vary several linked assumptions and are not probabilistic credible intervals.","Tenfold reduction in p increases price tenfold.","N and exposure are conditional on reform, not multiplied by total state population or total historic policy benefits.","Timing-only model compares gift and delayed-policy survival through the same finite endpoint.","Zero-net omitted pathways is a provisional central judgment; harms can reverse the result."],"missingInputs":["Current otherwise-unfunded staffing/work plan and its effect on access, remediation completion or enforceable emissions controls.","Cleanup-counterfactual timing, local household age/exposure mix, post-cleanup blood lead and a defensible clinical/QALY dose-response with persistence.","Non-duplicated CBE contribution versus East Yard, residents, lawyers and agencies, plus marginal donor/public replacement.","Outcome-weighted LA+Orange share of statewide air, water, climate and other pathways; non-health value is not silently monetized.","Net cleanup/displacement/transport harms and external public/private implementation resource costs."],"priceScope":"Judgment-based partial-health; full recipient expenses; not all-resource social cost","centralInterpretation":"A transparent tentative belief about a narrowly quantified health branch, not evidence of a currently unfunded grant opportunity."},"sources":[{"id":"cbe-99024","title":"2024 original Form 990","publisher":"Communities for a Better Environment / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/942998086/202523219349326347/full","published":"2025-11-18","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"cbe-99023","title":"2023 original Form 990","publisher":"Communities for a Better Environment / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/942998086/202413209349327061/full","published":"2024-11-16","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"cbe-99022","title":"2022 original Form 990","publisher":"Communities for a Better Environment / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/942998086/202333199349309338/full","published":"2023-11-15","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"cbe-donate","title":"Current support page, recipient EIN and scale","publisher":"Communities for a Better Environment","url":"https://www.cbecal.org/donate/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"cbe-exide26","title":"Comments on DTSC evaluation","publisher":"Communities for a Better Environment","url":"https://www.cbecal.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/CBEs-Comment-Letter-on-the-Board-of-Environmental-Safety-Evaluation-of-DTSC.pdf","published":"2026-03-09","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"cbe-refineries","title":"Current refinery litigation portfolio","publisher":"Communities for a Better Environment","url":"https://www.cbecal.org/initiative/refineries/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"cbe-exide-budget","title":"March 19 budget hearing, Issue 16","publisher":"California Senate Committee on Budget and Fiscal Review","url":"https://sbud.senate.ca.gov/system/files/2026-03/agenda-mar19-calepa-3.16.pdf","published":"2026-03-19","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"cbe-dtsc","title":"Exide residential cleanup and geography","publisher":"California Department of Toxic Substances Control","url":"https://dtsc.ca.gov/residential-cleanup/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"cbe-boston-rct","title":"Lead-contaminated soil abatement and urban children's blood lead levels","publisher":"Weitzman et al. / JAMA","url":"https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/405094","published":"1993-04-07","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"cbe-home-rct","title":"Residential lead-hazard intervention randomized trial","publisher":"Braun et al. / JAMA Pediatrics","url":"https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2696978","published":"2018-08-06","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"cbe-rule-adoption","title":"Refinery rule adoption and implementation horizon","publisher":"South Coast AQMD","url":"https://www.aqmd.gov/home/research/pubs-docs-reports/newsletters/jan-feb-2022/refinery-rule","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"cbe-rule-draft","title":"Draft socioeconomic assessment, native health incidence Table 27","publisher":"South Coast AQMD","url":"https://www.aqmd.gov/docs/default-source/rule-book/Proposed-Rules/1109.1/1109-1-draft-socioeconomic-impact-assessment-090721-merged.pdf?sfvrsn=10","published":"2021-09-07","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"cbe-omaha","title":"Soil remediation and children's blood lead at Omaha Superfund site","publisher":"Ye et al. / US EPA","url":"https://assessments.epa.gov/risk/document/&deid=354467","published":"2022-04-04","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"cbe-cache","title":"CACHE statewide adaptation cohort launch","publisher":"Communities for a Better Environment","url":"https://www.cbecal.org/news/post/10-community-led-orgs-launch-statewide-climate-adaptation-efforts/","published":"2026-08-14","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"cbe-jobs","title":"Current employment opportunities","publisher":"Communities for a Better Environment","url":"https://www.cbecal.org/get-involved/jobs/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"wu","title":"Evaluating long-term fine particulate exposure and mortality among the elderly","publisher":"Wu and colleagues / Science Advances","url":"https://xiaowu.io/publication/wu2020evaluating/wu2020evaluating.pdf","published":"2020-07-17","retrieved":"2026-09-14"}]}