{"edition":"los-angeles","organization":"Coalition for Clean Air","organizationId":"org:coalition-for-clean-air","boundaryVersion":"OMB-23-01-2023-07-21","updated":"2026-10-05","display":{"metric":{"id":"daly-equivalent","years":1,"label":"DALY","priceLabel":"$ / DALY"},"priceUSD":1003138.4432836773,"canonicalPriceUSDPerTenEquivalentYears":10031384.432836773,"conversion":"display only; QALYs and income equivalents are not measured clinical DALYs"},"listDisplay":{"metric":{"id":"daly-equivalent","years":1,"label":"DALY","priceLabel":"$ / DALY"},"priceUSD":1003138.4432836773,"canonicalPriceUSDPerTenEquivalentYears":10031384.432836773,"conversion":"display only; QALYs and income equivalents are not measured clinical DALYs"},"model":{"version":"la-cca-beta-signed-ledger-v3","costScope":"Five full latest-year gross reported recipient budgets, across all programs and support, normalized linearly to a $10,000 ordinary gift. No policy-only cost carveout. External social resources unpriced.","geographicAttribution":"LA-only calculation: OMB Bulletin23-01 MSA31080 includes Los Angeles and Orange counties, excludes Riverside/San Bernardino and Ventura. N=500000 older adults alive at implementation is a finite analyst exposure cohort, not observed reach. Nall=N is enforced; allPopulationQalys equals local quantified health only and does not represent all statewide effects. California and LA are nested recipient views, never summed.","formula":"h1=h0*exp(-ln(HR)/10*transport*pm); rho=ln(1.03); F(a,t)=(1-exp(-a*t))/a. qD=u*(F(h1+rho,T)-F(h0+rho,T)). a=min(A,T). qT=u*(F(h1+rho,a)-F(h0+rho,a)+(1-exp(-(h0-h1)*a))*(exp(-(h1+rho)*a)-exp(-(h1+rho)*T))/(h1+rho)). q=(f*qD+(1-f)*qT)/1.03^L. Qgift=10000/(E*Y)*b*(p*N*q-harm). Price=100000/Qgift if positive. N is cohort alive at implementation; no extra survival-to-implementation multiplier. Costs are constant-real full budgets; no cost discount haircut. Signed resources: each disjoint baseline-alive household group nets positiveUSD*positiveOverlapShare+negativeUSD before logarithm; negatives remain full. CG equivalent=.5*people*discountedYears*log1p(net/baseline)*gift/(E*Y)*b*p*branchShare. Durable branch lasts T, timing branch only min(A,T). Independent gift-induced burdens bypass policy/funding probability. Shared production income calculator and reportPrice count income once.","counterfactual":"Existing EPA, IQAir and YMCA devices, already-corrected fan settings, partner HVAC investigation, public plans, current ports agreement and clean-truck rules continue. A new gift cannot retroactively buy March installations or July corrections. The policy alternative must exceed the current baseline. Policy/technical capacity changes the probability of additional transport/freight emissions controls or implementation beyond adopted rules, the current ports agreement and already-agreed public funding. Current activities establish a live mechanism, not the assumed probability or PM reduction. YMCA device gaps and indoor/outdoor percentages do not determine this ambient older-adult model.","attribution":"p is the incremental recipient-specific probability effect of a five-year whole-organization effort versus partner/regulator action without it. b models donation-sensitive capacity after replacement funding, distinct from coalition p. Local linear extrapolation to a small gift is judgment and can fail at lumpy capacity thresholds. Financial people are unvalidated recurrent baseline-alive household-year exposure forecasts, allowing replacement households as rosters turn over; no additional-survivor earnings or guaranteed fixed cohort survival.","uncertainty":"Explicit judgment central, not identified causal charity effectiveness. Wide scenarios include clinical-null, no-policy-effect and harm. This is not a complete portfolio estimate or a reason to override donor diligence.","nativeOutcomes":"Additional annual ambient PM2.5 exposure reduction among an explicitly modeled older cohort; finite discounted all-cause survival differences, without adding overlapping mortality/morbidity or lead/IQ units. Signed additional household consumption: private care/work gains after taxes/benefit withdrawal/work costs, compliance losses and separate counterparty/displacement losses. No survivor wages, gross medical savings or construction spending.","inputs":[{"name":"E","value":2494912,"unit":"USD per recipient year","basis":"observed","rationale":"Latest original filing, full reported gross expense.","sourceIds":["99025"]},{"name":"Y","value":5,"unit":"budget years","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"N","value":500000,"unit":"local older people alive at implementation","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Conditional policy exposure cohort selected for plausibility, not measured reach or demographic allocation.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"Nall","value":500000,"unit":"people in all quantified branches","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Equal to local N: no extrapolated statewide outcomes in this packet.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"pm","value":0.2,"unit":"micrograms/m³ sustained ambient reduction","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"p","value":0.1,"unit":"incremental policy probability","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Low incremental probability over five years reflects multiple actors, existing rules and legal reversal; unelicited analyst judgment.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"b","value":0.5,"unit":"marginal funding response","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Replacement funding/reserves uncertainty; smaller CBE response reflects materially larger reported unrestricted balances.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"HR","value":1.06,"unit":"hazard ratio per 10 micrograms/m³ higher PM2.5","basis":"observed","rationale":"External older US Medicare cohort estimate; conditional causal interpretation, not a CCA/CBE trial.","sourceIds":["wu"]},{"name":"transport","value":0.7,"unit":"multiplier on log HR","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"h0","value":0.035,"unit":"annual all-cause mortality hazard","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"u","value":0.75,"unit":"utility among survivors","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"T","value":10,"unit":"finite years after implementation","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"L","value":3,"unit":"years to implementation","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"f","value":0.5,"unit":"durable branch share","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"A","value":3,"unit":"years of acceleration","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"harm","value":0,"unit":"other QALYs lost per five-year effort before b","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]}],"scenarios":[{"costUSD":10000,"editionQalys":0.00996871375726162,"allPopulationQalys":0.00996871375726162,"incomePathways":[],"incomeUnknown":false,"inputs":{"E":2494912,"Y":5,"N":500000,"Nall":500000,"pm":0.2,"p":0.1,"b":0.5,"HR":1.06,"transport":0.7,"h0":0.035,"u":0.75,"T":10,"L":3,"f":0.5,"A":3,"harm":0,"gift":10000},"resourceLedger":[],"inducedLedger":[],"qDurable":0.000704327957406381,"qTiming":0.0003827633501901487,"qConditional":0.0004974212715511421,"incomeEquivalentYears":0,"combinedEquivalentYears":0.00996871375726162,"costPer10Qalys":10031384.432836773,"id":"central","label":"Judgment central: partial older-adult air health","assumptions":"All nonfinancial parameters except the external HR are explicitly analyst judgment; scenario bundle is not an empirical interval. 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Full five-year expense denominator; no gift restriction assumed."},{"id":"poor","label":"Poor joint assumptions, not a confidence bound","pricePer10Qalys":600601578217.5494,"assumptions":"All nonfinancial parameters except the external HR are explicitly analyst judgment; scenario bundle is not an empirical interval. Full five-year expense denominator; no gift restriction assumed."},{"id":"low-attribution","label":"One-tenth central incremental policy probability","pricePer10Qalys":100313844.32836773,"assumptions":"All nonfinancial parameters except the external HR are explicitly analyst judgment; scenario bundle is not an empirical interval. Full five-year expense denominator; no gift restriction assumed."},{"id":"replacement","label":"Strong replacement funding","pricePer10Qalys":50156922.16418386,"assumptions":"All nonfinancial parameters except the external HR are explicitly analyst judgment; scenario bundle is not an empirical interval. 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Full five-year expense denominator; no gift restriction assumed."},{"id":"resources-positive","label":"resources-positive","pricePer10Qalys":9988406.72192654,"assumptions":"Conditional judgment sensitivity, not a confidence interval."},{"id":"clinical-null-financial","label":"clinical-null-financial","pricePer10Qalys":2331384002.94177,"assumptions":"Conditional judgment sensitivity, not a confidence interval."},{"id":"financial-only","label":"financial-only","pricePer10Qalys":2331384002.94177,"assumptions":"Conditional judgment sensitivity, not a confidence interval."},{"id":"resources-negative","label":"resources-negative","pricePer10Qalys":10483509.114640292,"assumptions":"Conditional judgment sensitivity, not a confidence interval."},{"id":"adverse-exposure","label":"adverse-exposure","pricePer10Qalys":null,"assumptions":"Conditional judgment sensitivity, not a confidence interval."},{"id":"failed-policy-induced-loss","label":"failed-policy-induced-loss","pricePer10Qalys":null,"assumptions":"Conditional judgment sensitivity, not a confidence interval."},{"id":"unknown-net-resources","label":"unknown-net-resources","pricePer10Qalys":null,"assumptions":"Conditional judgment sensitivity, not a confidence interval."},{"id":"half-local-exposure","label":"half-local-exposure","pricePer10Qalys":20062768.865673546,"assumptions":"Conditional judgment sensitivity, not a confidence interval."},{"id":"five-year-survival","label":"five-year-survival","pricePer10Qalys":27233487.46732367,"assumptions":"Conditional judgment sensitivity, not a confidence interval."},{"id":"twenty-year-survival","label":"twenty-year-survival","pricePer10Qalys":4307333.215885851,"assumptions":"Conditional judgment sensitivity, not a confidence interval."},{"id":"six-year-delay","label":"six-year-delay","pricePer10Qalys":10961564.61714043,"assumptions":"Conditional judgment sensitivity, not a confidence interval."},{"id":"true-zero","label":"true-zero","pricePer10Qalys":null,"assumptions":"Conditional judgment sensitivity, not a confidence interval."}],"missingInputs":["Ordinary-gift allocation and feasible quote addressing the nine-unit nominal gap, outlets, wall space, HVAC and ongoing filters/power; remaining EPA, YMCA and IQAir funding.","Unique LA/Orange occupants by age, time in rooms, additional PM reduction versus installed devices and corrected settings, and persistence.","Specific CCA policy-capacity increment and design alternative; cleaner trips induced, dirty trips displaced, lifecycle pollution and LA/Orange exposure.","Finite age-specific utility and survival transfer; harms and displacement; overlapping pollutants.","Public/private implementation costs and withdrawal or reversal counterfactual.","Net signed household incidence, repeat-household deduplication, compliance/counterparty losses and overlap share are not identified.","Current work package, alternative funding, staff capacity and finite local exposure trajectory remain unknown."],"priceScope":"Conditional LA/Orange health and signed consumption equivalents; partial pathway, not donor-ready.","centralInterpretation":"Conditional planning central retains initial health value. Empty central resource ledger is an explicitly neutral-sign judgment, not empirical zero; unknown-net-resources has null combined price. Not complete organizational expected value or a lower bound.","historicalAlphaModel":{"version":"la-cca-judgment-partial-health-v2","costScope":"Five full latest-year gross reported recipient budgets, across all programs and support, normalized linearly to a $10,000 ordinary gift. No policy-only cost carveout. External social resources unpriced.","geographicAttribution":"Only health within Los Angeles and Orange counties (FIPS 06037, 06059) is counted. The 500,000 older adults are an analyst-selected conditional exposure cohort, not an office-count allocation or observed participant total. Riverside and San Bernardino outcomes are excluded. CA and LA are nested views of the same recipient; never add them. The statewide 1.5m and local 0.5m central cohorts are separate judgment exposure denominators, not measured shares. allPopulationQalys includes the modeled California branch only.","formula":"h1=h0*exp(-ln(HR)/10*transport*pm); rho=ln(1.03); F(a,t)=(1-exp(-a*t))/a. qD=u*(F(h1+rho,T)-F(h0+rho,T)). a=min(A,T). qT=u*(F(h1+rho,a)-F(h0+rho,a)+(1-exp(-(h0-h1)*a))*(exp(-(h1+rho)*a)-exp(-(h1+rho)*T))/(h1+rho)). q=(f*qD+(1-f)*qT)/1.03^L. Qgift=10000/(E*Y)*b*(p*N*q-harm). Price=100000/Qgift if positive. N is cohort alive at implementation; no extra survival-to-implementation multiplier. Costs are constant-real full budgets; no cost discount haircut.","counterfactual":"Existing EPA, IQAir and YMCA devices, already-corrected fan settings, partner HVAC investigation, public plans, current ports agreement and clean-truck rules continue. A new gift cannot retroactively buy March installations or July corrections. The policy alternative must exceed the current baseline. Policy/technical capacity changes the probability of additional transport/freight emissions controls or implementation beyond adopted rules, the current ports agreement and already-agreed public funding. Current activities establish a live mechanism, not the assumed probability or PM reduction. YMCA device gaps and indoor/outdoor percentages do not determine this ambient older-adult model.","attribution":"p is the incremental recipient-specific probability effect of a five-year whole-organization effort versus partner/regulator action without it. b models donation-sensitive capacity after replacement funding, distinct from coalition p. Local linear extrapolation to a small gift is judgment and can fail at lumpy capacity thresholds.","uncertainty":"Explicit judgment central, not identified causal charity effectiveness. Wide scenarios include clinical-null, no-policy-effect and harm. This is not a complete portfolio estimate or a reason to override donor diligence.","nativeOutcomes":"Additional annual ambient PM2.5 exposure reduction among an explicitly modeled older cohort; finite discounted all-cause survival differences, without adding overlapping mortality/morbidity or lead/IQ units.","inputs":[{"name":"E","value":2494912,"unit":"USD per recipient year","basis":"observed","rationale":"Latest original filing, full reported gross expense.","sourceIds":["99025"]},{"name":"Y","value":5,"unit":"budget years","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"N","value":500000,"unit":"local older people alive at implementation","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Conditional policy exposure cohort selected for plausibility, not measured reach or demographic allocation.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"Nall","value":1500000,"unit":"people in all quantified branches","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"pm","value":0.2,"unit":"micrograms/m³ sustained ambient reduction","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"p","value":0.1,"unit":"incremental policy probability","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Low incremental probability over five years reflects multiple actors, existing rules and legal reversal; unelicited analyst judgment.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"b","value":0.5,"unit":"marginal funding response","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Replacement funding/reserves uncertainty; smaller CBE response reflects materially larger reported unrestricted balances.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"HR","value":1.06,"unit":"hazard ratio per 10 micrograms/m³ higher PM2.5","basis":"observed","rationale":"External older US Medicare cohort estimate; conditional causal interpretation, not a CCA/CBE trial.","sourceIds":["wu"]},{"name":"transport","value":0.7,"unit":"multiplier on log HR","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"h0","value":0.035,"unit":"annual all-cause mortality hazard","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"u","value":0.75,"unit":"utility among survivors","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"T","value":10,"unit":"finite years after implementation","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"L","value":3,"unit":"years to implementation","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"f","value":0.5,"unit":"durable branch share","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"A","value":3,"unit":"years of acceleration","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"harm","value":0,"unit":"other QALYs lost per five-year effort before b","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]}],"scenarios":[{"id":"central","label":"Judgment central: partial older-adult air health","costUSD":10000,"qDurable":0.0007043279574077133,"qTiming":0.0003827633501901487,"qConditional":0.0004974212715517517,"fullBudgetEditionQalys":12.435531788793794,"editionQalys":0.009968713757273838,"allPopulationQalys":0.029906141271821514,"costPer10Qalys":10031384.432824478,"inputs":{"E":2494912,"Y":5,"N":500000,"Nall":1500000,"pm":0.2,"p":0.1,"b":0.5,"HR":1.06,"transport":0.7,"h0":0.035,"u":0.75,"T":10,"L":3,"f":0.5,"A":3,"harm":0},"assumptions":"All nonfinancial parameters except the external HR are explicitly analyst judgment; scenario bundle is not an empirical interval. 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