{"edition":"los-angeles","organization":"Coalition for Clean Air","organizationId":"org:coalition-for-clean-air","boundaryVersion":"OMB-23-01-2023-07-21","updated":"2026-09-14","model":{"version":"la-cca-judgment-partial-health-v2","costScope":"Five full latest-year gross reported recipient budgets, across all programs and support, normalized linearly to a $10,000 ordinary gift. No policy-only cost carveout. External social resources unpriced.","geographicAttribution":"Only health within Los Angeles and Orange counties (FIPS 06037, 06059) is counted. The 500,000 older adults are an analyst-selected conditional exposure cohort, not an office-count allocation or observed participant total. Riverside and San Bernardino outcomes are excluded. CA and LA are nested views of the same recipient; never add them. The statewide 1.5m and local 0.5m central cohorts are separate judgment exposure denominators, not measured shares. allPopulationQalys includes the modeled California branch only.","formula":"h1=h0*exp(-ln(HR)/10*transport*pm); rho=ln(1.03); F(a,t)=(1-exp(-a*t))/a. qD=u*(F(h1+rho,T)-F(h0+rho,T)). a=min(A,T). qT=u*(F(h1+rho,a)-F(h0+rho,a)+(1-exp(-(h0-h1)*a))*(exp(-(h1+rho)*a)-exp(-(h1+rho)*T))/(h1+rho)). q=(f*qD+(1-f)*qT)/1.03^L. Qgift=10000/(E*Y)*b*(p*N*q-harm). Price=100000/Qgift if positive. N is cohort alive at implementation; no extra survival-to-implementation multiplier. Costs are constant-real full budgets; no cost discount haircut.","counterfactual":"Existing EPA, IQAir and YMCA devices, already-corrected fan settings, partner HVAC investigation, public plans, current ports agreement and clean-truck rules continue. A new gift cannot retroactively buy March installations or July corrections. The policy alternative must exceed the current baseline. Policy/technical capacity changes the probability of additional transport/freight emissions controls or implementation beyond adopted rules, the current ports agreement and already-agreed public funding. Current activities establish a live mechanism, not the assumed probability or PM reduction. YMCA device gaps and indoor/outdoor percentages do not determine this ambient older-adult model.","attribution":"p is the incremental recipient-specific probability effect of a five-year whole-organization effort versus partner/regulator action without it. b models donation-sensitive capacity after replacement funding, distinct from coalition p. Local linear extrapolation to a small gift is judgment and can fail at lumpy capacity thresholds.","uncertainty":"Explicit judgment central, not identified causal charity effectiveness. Wide scenarios include clinical-null, no-policy-effect and harm. This is not a complete portfolio estimate or a reason to override donor diligence.","nativeOutcomes":"Additional annual ambient PM2.5 exposure reduction among an explicitly modeled older cohort; finite discounted all-cause survival differences, without adding overlapping mortality/morbidity or lead/IQ units.","inputs":[{"name":"E","value":2494912,"unit":"USD per recipient year","basis":"observed","rationale":"Latest original filing, full reported gross expense.","sourceIds":["99025"]},{"name":"Y","value":5,"unit":"budget years","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"N","value":500000,"unit":"local older people alive at implementation","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Conditional policy exposure cohort selected for plausibility, not measured reach or demographic allocation.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"Nall","value":1500000,"unit":"people in all quantified branches","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"pm","value":0.2,"unit":"micrograms/m³ sustained ambient reduction","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"p","value":0.1,"unit":"incremental policy probability","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Low incremental probability over five years reflects multiple actors, existing rules and legal reversal; unelicited analyst judgment.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"b","value":0.5,"unit":"marginal funding response","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Replacement funding/reserves uncertainty; smaller CBE response reflects materially larger reported unrestricted balances.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"HR","value":1.06,"unit":"hazard ratio per 10 micrograms/m³ higher PM2.5","basis":"observed","rationale":"External older US Medicare cohort estimate; conditional causal interpretation, not a CCA/CBE trial.","sourceIds":["wu"]},{"name":"transport","value":0.7,"unit":"multiplier on log HR","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"h0","value":0.035,"unit":"annual all-cause mortality hazard","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"u","value":0.75,"unit":"utility among survivors","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"T","value":10,"unit":"finite years after implementation","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"L","value":3,"unit":"years to implementation","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"f","value":0.5,"unit":"durable branch share","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"A","value":3,"unit":"years of acceleration","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"harm","value":0,"unit":"other QALYs lost per five-year effort before b","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]}],"scenarios":[{"id":"central","label":"Judgment central: partial older-adult air health","costUSD":10000,"qDurable":0.0007043279574077133,"qTiming":0.0003827633501901487,"qConditional":0.0004974212715517517,"fullBudgetEditionQalys":12.435531788793794,"editionQalys":0.009968713757273838,"allPopulationQalys":0.029906141271821514,"costPer10Qalys":10031384.432824478,"inputs":{"E":2494912,"Y":5,"N":500000,"Nall":1500000,"pm":0.2,"p":0.1,"b":0.5,"HR":1.06,"transport":0.7,"h0":0.035,"u":0.75,"T":10,"L":3,"f":0.5,"A":3,"harm":0},"assumptions":"All nonfinancial parameters except the external HR are explicitly analyst judgment; scenario bundle is not an empirical interval. 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Full five-year expense denominator; no gift restriction assumed."},{"id":"clinical-null","label":"No causal clinical transfer","costUSD":10000,"qDurable":0,"qTiming":0,"qConditional":0,"fullBudgetEditionQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"allPopulationQalys":0,"costPer10Qalys":null,"inputs":{"E":2494912,"Y":5,"N":500000,"Nall":1500000,"pm":0.2,"p":0.1,"b":0.5,"HR":1.06,"transport":0,"h0":0.035,"u":0.75,"T":10,"L":3,"f":0.5,"A":3,"harm":0},"assumptions":"All nonfinancial parameters except the external HR are explicitly analyst judgment; scenario bundle is not an empirical interval. Full five-year expense denominator; no gift restriction assumed."},{"id":"zero","label":"No additional policy or health effect","costUSD":10000,"qDurable":0.0007043279574077133,"qTiming":0.0003827633501901487,"qConditional":0.0004974212715517517,"fullBudgetEditionQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"allPopulationQalys":0,"costPer10Qalys":null,"inputs":{"E":2494912,"Y":5,"N":500000,"Nall":1500000,"pm":0.2,"p":0,"b":0.5,"HR":1.06,"transport":0.7,"h0":0.035,"u":0.75,"T":10,"L":3,"f":0.5,"A":3,"harm":0},"assumptions":"All nonfinancial parameters except the external HR are explicitly analyst judgment; scenario bundle is not an empirical interval. 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Full five-year expense denominator; no gift restriction assumed."}],"sensitivity":["Favorable/poor bundles vary several linked assumptions and are not probabilistic credible intervals.","Tenfold reduction in p increases price tenfold.","N and exposure are conditional on reform, not multiplied by total state population or total historic policy benefits.","Timing-only model compares gift and delayed-policy survival through the same finite endpoint.","Zero-net omitted pathways is a provisional central judgment; harms can reverse the result."],"missingInputs":["Ordinary-gift allocation and feasible quote addressing the nine-unit nominal gap, outlets, wall space, HVAC and ongoing filters/power; remaining EPA, YMCA and IQAir funding.","Unique LA/Orange occupants by age, time in rooms, additional PM reduction versus installed devices and corrected settings, and persistence.","Specific CCA policy-capacity increment and design alternative; cleaner trips induced, dirty trips displaced, lifecycle pollution and LA/Orange exposure.","Finite age-specific utility and survival transfer; harms and displacement; overlapping pollutants.","Public/private implementation costs and withdrawal or reversal counterfactual."],"priceScope":"Judgment-based partial-health; full recipient expenses; not all-resource social cost","centralInterpretation":"A transparent tentative belief about a narrowly quantified health branch, not evidence of a currently unfunded grant opportunity."},"sources":[{"id":"about","title":"Coalition for Clean Air: current mission and projects","publisher":"Coalition for Clean Air","url":"https://www.ccair.org/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"donate","title":"General individual donation form","publisher":"Coalition for Clean Air","url":"https://ccair.app.neoncrm.com/forms/donate","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"99025","title":"Form 990 for July 2024–June 2025","publisher":"Coalition for Clean Air / IRS","url":"https://www.ccair.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/2024-2025-CCA-Form-990.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"99024","title":"Form 990 for July 2023–June 2024, with FY2023 comparison","publisher":"Coalition for Clean Air / IRS","url":"https://www.ccair.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/2023-CCA-Form-990.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"financial","title":"Financial information and current returns","publisher":"Coalition for Clean Air","url":"https://www.ccair.org/about/financial/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"airaware","title":"AirAware YMCA project and current report index","publisher":"Coalition for Clean Air","url":"https://www.ccair.org/projects/airaware-ymcas/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"wu","title":"Evaluating long-term fine particulate exposure and mortality among the elderly","publisher":"Wu and colleagues / Science Advances","url":"https://xiaowu.io/publication/wu2020evaluating/wu2020evaluating.pdf","published":"2020-07-17","retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"ports-current26","title":"Current Ports Cooperative Agreement and implementation","publisher":"South Coast Air Quality Management District","url":"https://www.aqmd.gov/home/air-quality/air-quality-management-plans/air-quality-mgt-plan/facility-based-mobile-source-measures/comm-ports-wkng-grp/potential-cooperative-agreement-with-the-ports-of-long-beach-and-los-angeles","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"ports-addendum26","title":"Final Ports Cooperative Agreement addendum, reference date September10,2026","publisher":"South Coast AQMD / Cities of Los Angeles and Long Beach","url":"https://www.aqmd.gov/docs/default-source/ports-ca/addendum-to-ports-ca_final-approved-sept-2026.pdf?sfvrsn=a4db637e_2","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"99023","title":"Original organization-posted FY2023 Form990 copy","url":"https://www.ccair.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/CCA-Form-990-2022-23.pdf","publisher":"Coalition for Clean Air","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"rio26","title":"Southeast-Rio Vista quarterly report with July actions","url":"https://www.ccair.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/2026.07.01_Southeast-Rio-Vista-YMCA-Y2Q2-Report.pdf","publisher":"AirAware team / Coalition for Clean Air","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"weingart26","title":"Weingart quarterly report with July actions","url":"https://www.ccair.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/2026.07.01_Weingart-YMCA-Y2Q2-Report.pdf","publisher":"AirAware team / Coalition for Clean Air","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"rio-address","title":"Southeast-Rio Vista official location and hours","url":"https://www.ymcala.org/locations/southeast-rio-vista-ymca/","publisher":"YMCA of Metropolitan Los Angeles","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"weingart-address","title":"Weingart East LA official location and hours","url":"https://www.ymcala.org/locations/weingart-east-los-angeles-ymca/","publisher":"YMCA of Metropolitan Los Angeles","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"}]}