{"edition":"chicago","organization":"Chicago CRED","organizationId":"org:chicago-cred","boundaryVersion":"OMB-23-01-2023-07-21","updated":"2026-10-05","display":{"metric":{"id":"daly-equivalent","years":1,"label":"DALY","priceLabel":"$ / DALY"},"priceUSD":23035575.652653713,"canonicalPriceUSDPerTenEquivalentYears":230355756.52653712,"conversion":"display only; QALYs and income equivalents are not measured clinical DALYs"},"listDisplay":{"metric":{"id":"daly-equivalent","years":1,"label":"DALY","priceLabel":"$ / DALY"},"priceUSD":23035575.652653713,"canonicalPriceUSDPerTenEquivalentYears":230355756.52653712,"conversion":"display only; QALYs and income equivalents are not measured clinical DALYs"},"model":{"version":"chicago-cred-deep-20261005","costScope":"Calendar 2024 original Form 990-PF reports $36,314,414 total book expenses. Its $37,047,914 charitable cash disbursements are a different accounting measure, not an addback. The whole recognized annual recipient cost includes direct work, grants, administration and other activities; it is not a restricted participant-program denominator. No equivalent Form 990 netted event/rental addback was identified. Outside implementation and social costs remain separate.\n\nA judged 400 local household opportunities and .5 annual-package response imply 200 exposed households, with 100 clinical participants. A .05 annual victimization risk and .05 causal reduction imply .25 avoided physical victimizations. One integrated injury QALY per event is truncated within three years and excludes trauma. The remaining 99.75 people receive .03 trauma utility for half a year. Positive clinical components retain .8 for overlap; harms remain full. A one-year delay and 3% discount produce 1.356311 clinical QALYs.\n\nThe clinical cohort is a subset of the 200 resource-exposed households; one participant household carries one modeled welfare-equivalent person, with other family welfare unpriced. Resource exposure remains when clinical benefit fails. Fifty households have judged net job resources of $1,500 and net stipends of $300. Positive components each retain .5, then full attendance costs of $300 are subtracted: $600 net. The other 150 households net −$150. Negative components are never attenuated by overlap. A single joint household log gives .5 × [50 log(1.04) + 150 log(.99)] / 1.03 = .220138 equivalent healthy years at a $15,000 household baseline for one finite year. Combined 1.576449 yields $230.355757 million per ten combined equivalents, not ten clinical QALYs.\n\nJob gains are after taxes, benefit withdrawal, replacement earnings and new-job commuting or care costs; stipends are after taxes and benefits. Class attendance, early foregone work and travel are separate full burdens. These amounts are hypotheses, not observed gains. No ordinary survivor wages are added. Central payer and external care incidence is unknown-neutral, not factual zero. Matched stipend-payer losses, external costs, negative resource changes, adverse trauma and mixed-sign cases are explicit. Household gains and losses combine before one log; distinct payer households are modeled separately. Whole portfolio and nonlocal incidence remain unknown.\n\nThis deep review retains the initial conditional center unchanged, not an empirically calibrated complete-portfolio estimate. Fiscal 2024 grants of $10,552,266 are already in $36,314,414 book expenses. A direct-service numerator is deliberately incomplete against the whole-recipient denominator; unknown grant and neighborhood benefits and burdens are not asserted zero. The 0.5 funded-work response is a conditional annual counterfactual, not a measured next-gift effect. A 111/324 uptake sensitivity uses historical completer selection only as a throughput hypothesis, not current efficacy.\n\nFinite job-duration cases distinguish one-off stipends and attendance disruption from recurring net job resources. When employment starts in the same year, first-year stipend, net jobs and full process costs enter one joint household log. Later years contain only net job resources, including taxes, benefit withdrawal and new-work commuting or care; no stipend or attendance cost repeats. Delayed employment must start after the first-year window, avoiding overlapping same-household logs. Zero job duration keeps the stipend and full process burden. Added tax/care inputs are incremental stresses beyond the already-net central $1,500, not claims about observed component amounts. Matching payer cases represent distinct displaced beneficiaries or outside providers, not charging the donating household twice for expenditure already in annual cost. Complete world incidence remains unknown.","geographicAttribution":"Chicago South and West Side household cohort; clinical participants are a subset of resource exposure.","formula":"Clinical health is discounted integrated injury benefit plus time-sliced finite trauma utility, positive-only clinical overlap, minus full exposed-union harm. For each disjoint household group and nonoverlapping year, net positive-only-overlap job/stipend components minus full negative resources and burdens enter 0.5 × households × discounted years × log(1 + net / annual consumption baseline). Headline counts signed resources once alongside health and full annual book expenses plus separately identified external cost.","counterfactual":"Existing public CVI, alternative employment, therapy, other donors and partner grants continue. Annual additional funded work is conditional; neither all grant outcomes nor next-gift expansion is identified.","attribution":"All population, risk, uptake, response, efficacy and resource success coefficients are conditional judgments, not recipient causal observations.","uncertainty":"Conditional reference retains prior judgments. Original individual victimization null, completer selection and overlapping neighborhood interventions do not calibrate injury/PTSD or employment coefficients. Current unique households, actual dose and net income, outside incidence, portfolio effects and marginal funding remain unknown.","nativeOutcomes":"Additional completed services, prevented gunshot victimization and finite trauma relief, plus actual net household earnings and stipend resources; not arrests, graduation counts, placement salaries, cumulative grants or ecosystem totals converted directly to welfare.","inputs":[{"name":"C","value":36314414,"unit":"USD whole annual book expenses","basis":"observed","rationale":"Original annual PF book expenses include grants; charitable cash disbursements are a different basis.","sourceIds":["cred-99024"]},{"name":"N","value":400,"unit":"Annual participant household opportunities","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Conditional prior, not a measured causal local coefficient. See rendered joint ledger and time slices.","sourceIds":["cred-employment"]},{"name":"b","value":0.5,"unit":"Additional annual funded-work fraction","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Conditional prior, not a measured causal local coefficient. See rendered joint ledger and time slices.","sourceIds":["cred-employment"]},{"name":"uptake","value":0.5,"unit":"Clinical uptake fraction","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Conditional prior, not a measured causal local coefficient. See rendered joint ledger and time slices.","sourceIds":["cred-paper"]},{"name":"risk","value":0.05,"unit":"Annual victimization probability","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Conditional prior, not a measured causal local coefficient. See rendered joint ledger and time slices.","sourceIds":["cred-paper"]},{"name":"reduction","value":0.05,"unit":"Signed causal proportional victimization change","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Conditional prior, not a measured causal local coefficient. See rendered joint ledger and time slices.","sourceIds":["cred-paper"]},{"name":"injuryQ","value":1,"unit":"Integrated QALYs per physical victimization, within three years","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Conditional prior, not a measured causal local coefficient. See rendered joint ledger and time slices.","sourceIds":["cred-employment"]},{"name":"traumaQ","value":0.03,"unit":"Annual trauma utility increment","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Conditional prior, not a measured causal local coefficient. See rendered joint ledger and time slices.","sourceIds":["cred-employment"]},{"name":"traumaYears","value":0.5,"unit":"Finite clinical years","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Conditional prior, not a measured causal local coefficient. See rendered joint ledger and time slices.","sourceIds":["cred-employment"]},{"name":"clinicalOverlap","value":0.8,"unit":"Retained positive clinical fraction","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Conditional prior, not a measured causal local coefficient. See rendered joint ledger and time slices.","sourceIds":["cred-employment"]},{"name":"delay","value":1,"unit":"Clinical and stipend delay years","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Conditional prior, not a measured causal local coefficient. See rendered joint ledger and time slices.","sourceIds":["cred-employment"]},{"name":"discount","value":0.03,"unit":"Annual discount fraction","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Conditional prior, not a measured causal local coefficient. See rendered joint ledger and time slices.","sourceIds":["cred-employment"]},{"name":"resourceSuccess","value":0.25,"unit":"Resource response fraction independent of clinical success","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Conditional prior, not a measured causal local coefficient. See rendered joint ledger and time slices.","sourceIds":["cred-employment"]},{"name":"jobGain","value":1500,"unit":"USD net household resources per year (stipend/process costs one-off)","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Conditional prior, not a measured causal local coefficient. See rendered joint ledger and time slices.","sourceIds":["cred-employment"]},{"name":"stipendNet","value":300,"unit":"USD net household resources per year (stipend/process costs one-off)","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Conditional prior, not a measured causal local coefficient. See rendered joint ledger and time slices.","sourceIds":["cred-employment"]},{"name":"cost","value":300,"unit":"USD net household resources per year (stipend/process costs one-off)","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Conditional prior, not a measured causal local coefficient. See rendered joint ledger and time slices.","sourceIds":["cred-employment"]},{"name":"baseline","value":15000,"unit":"USD annual household consumption/resources","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Conditional prior, not a measured causal local coefficient. See rendered joint ledger and time slices.","sourceIds":["cred-employment"]},{"name":"positiveOverlap","value":0.5,"unit":"Retained positive resource fraction","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Conditional prior, not a measured causal local coefficient. See rendered joint ledger and time slices.","sourceIds":["cred-employment"]},{"name":"payerShare","value":0,"unit":"Conditional matched transfer incidence fraction","basis":"unknown","rationale":"Unknown-neutral reference, not observed zero; separate full-incidence controls.","sourceIds":["cred-employment"]},{"name":"payerPeople","value":50,"unit":"Distinct counterparty household units","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Conditional prior, not a measured causal local coefficient. See rendered joint ledger and time slices.","sourceIds":["cred-employment"]},{"name":"payerBaseline","value":60000,"unit":"USD counterparty annual consumption/resources","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Conditional prior, not a measured causal local coefficient. See rendered joint ledger and time slices.","sourceIds":["cred-employment"]},{"name":"externalCost","value":0,"unit":"USD net household resources per year (stipend/process costs one-off)","basis":"unknown","rationale":"Unknown-neutral reference, not observed zero; separate full-incidence controls.","sourceIds":["cred-employment"]},{"name":"harm","value":0,"unit":"QALYs lost per exposed resident","basis":"unknown","rationale":"Unknown-neutral reference, not observed zero; separate full-incidence controls.","sourceIds":["cred-employment"]},{"name":"g","value":1,"unit":"Chicago metro share","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Conditional prior, not a measured causal local coefficient. See rendered joint ledger and time slices.","sourceIds":["cred-employment"]},{"name":"jobYears","value":1,"unit":"Finite net job years","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Conditional prior, not a measured causal local coefficient. See rendered joint ledger and time slices.","sourceIds":["cred-employment"]},{"name":"jobDelay","value":1,"unit":"Job resource delay years","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Conditional prior, not a measured causal local coefficient. See rendered joint ledger and time slices.","sourceIds":["cred-employment"]},{"name":"taxFraction","value":0,"unit":"Incremental tax share of positive job gain","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Conditional prior, not a measured causal local coefficient. See rendered joint ledger and time slices.","sourceIds":["cred-employment"]},{"name":"benefitWithdrawal","value":0,"unit":"USD net household resources per year (stipend/process costs one-off)","basis":"unknown","rationale":"Unknown-neutral reference, not observed zero; separate full-incidence controls.","sourceIds":["cred-employment"]},{"name":"commuteCareCost","value":0,"unit":"USD net household resources per year (stipend/process costs one-off)","basis":"unknown","rationale":"Unknown-neutral reference, not observed zero; separate full-incidence controls.","sourceIds":["cred-employment"]},{"name":"K","value":0,"unit":"USD additional economic resources","basis":"unknown","rationale":"Unknown-neutral reference, not observed zero; separate full-incidence controls.","sourceIds":["cred-employment"]},{"name":"displacementLoss","value":0,"unit":"USD net household resources per year (stipend/process costs one-off)","basis":"unknown","rationale":"Unknown-neutral reference, not observed zero; separate full-incidence controls.","sourceIds":["cred-employment"]}],"scenarios":[{"id":"central","label":"central","costUSD":36314414,"exposed":200,"union":200,"treated":100,"events":0.25,"traumaPeople":99.75,"allPopulationQalys":1.3563106796116506,"editionQalys":1.3563106796116506,"incomePathways":[{"id":"resource-success","people":50,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":15000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":600,"years":1,"editionShare":1,"delayYears":1,"discountRate":0.03,"rationale":"One welfare-equivalent person per participant household. Net stipend/job resources and full attendance, care and work burdens combine before log. Positive benefits alone receive health-overlap reduction.","counterfactual":"Existing public CVI, other jobs and advocates continue. Net gains after taxes, benefit withdrawal, commuting, childcare, replacement earnings and foregone time are judgments, not gross stipend/wages or ordinary survivor earnings.","sourceIds":["cred-employment","cred-99024"]},{"id":"other-exposed","people":150,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":15000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-150,"years":1,"editionShare":1,"delayYears":1,"discountRate":0.03,"rationale":"One welfare-equivalent person per participant household. Net stipend/job resources and full attendance, care and work burdens combine before log. Positive benefits alone receive health-overlap reduction.","counterfactual":"Existing public CVI, other jobs and advocates continue. Net gains after taxes, benefit withdrawal, commuting, childcare, replacement earnings and foregone time are judgments, not gross stipend/wages or ordinary survivor earnings.","sourceIds":["cred-employment","cred-99024"]}],"incomeEquivalent":0.22013848526157698,"incomeUnknown":false,"totalEquivalent":1.5764491648732277,"price10":230355756.52653712,"costPer10Qalys":230355756.52653712,"incomeEquivalentYears":0.22013848526157698,"combinedEquivalentYears":1.5764491648732277,"assumptions":"Conditional limited-channel reference; current clinical/net-resource effects and full portfolio unknown.","overrides":{}},{"id":"mixed-sign","label":"mixed sign","costUSD":36314414,"exposed":200,"union":200,"treated":100,"events":0.25,"traumaPeople":99.75,"allPopulationQalys":1.3563106796116506,"editionQalys":1.3563106796116506,"incomePathways":[{"id":"resource-success","people":50,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":15000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-250,"years":1,"editionShare":1,"delayYears":1,"discountRate":0.03,"rationale":"One welfare-equivalent person per participant household. Net stipend/job resources and full attendance, care and work burdens combine before log. Positive benefits alone receive health-overlap reduction.","counterfactual":"Existing public CVI, other jobs and advocates continue. Net gains after taxes, benefit withdrawal, commuting, childcare, replacement earnings and foregone time are judgments, not gross stipend/wages or ordinary survivor earnings.","sourceIds":["cred-employment","cred-99024"]},{"id":"other-exposed","people":150,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":15000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-150,"years":1,"editionShare":1,"delayYears":1,"discountRate":0.03,"rationale":"One welfare-equivalent person per participant household. Net stipend/job resources and full attendance, care and work burdens combine before log. Positive benefits alone receive health-overlap reduction.","counterfactual":"Existing public CVI, other jobs and advocates continue. Net gains after taxes, benefit withdrawal, commuting, childcare, replacement earnings and foregone time are judgments, not gross stipend/wages or ordinary survivor earnings.","sourceIds":["cred-employment","cred-99024"]}],"incomeEquivalent":-1.1397603368176106,"incomeUnknown":false,"totalEquivalent":0.21655034279404006,"price10":1676950196.9589794,"costPer10Qalys":1676950196.9589794,"incomeEquivalentYears":-1.1397603368176106,"combinedEquivalentYears":0.21655034279404006,"assumptions":"Conditional limited-channel reference; current clinical/net-resource effects and full portfolio unknown.","overrides":{"jobGain":-100,"stipendNet":300}},{"id":"clinical-null","label":"clinical null","costUSD":36314414,"exposed":200,"union":200,"treated":100,"events":0,"traumaPeople":100,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"incomePathways":[{"id":"resource-success","people":50,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":15000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":600,"years":1,"editionShare":1,"delayYears":1,"discountRate":0.03,"rationale":"One welfare-equivalent person per participant household. Net stipend/job resources and full attendance, care and work burdens combine before log. Positive benefits alone receive health-overlap reduction.","counterfactual":"Existing public CVI, other jobs and advocates continue. Net gains after taxes, benefit withdrawal, commuting, childcare, replacement earnings and foregone time are judgments, not gross stipend/wages or ordinary survivor earnings.","sourceIds":["cred-employment","cred-99024"]},{"id":"other-exposed","people":150,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":15000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-150,"years":1,"editionShare":1,"delayYears":1,"discountRate":0.03,"rationale":"One welfare-equivalent person per participant household. Net stipend/job resources and full attendance, care and work burdens combine before log. Positive benefits alone receive health-overlap reduction.","counterfactual":"Existing public CVI, other jobs and advocates continue. Net gains after taxes, benefit withdrawal, commuting, childcare, replacement earnings and foregone time are judgments, not gross stipend/wages or ordinary survivor earnings.","sourceIds":["cred-employment","cred-99024"]}],"incomeEquivalent":0.22013848526157698,"incomeUnknown":false,"totalEquivalent":0.22013848526157698,"price10":1649616783.5828352,"costPer10Qalys":1649616783.5828352,"incomeEquivalentYears":0.22013848526157698,"combinedEquivalentYears":0.22013848526157698,"assumptions":"Conditional limited-channel reference; current clinical/net-resource effects and full portfolio unknown.","overrides":{"reduction":0,"traumaQ":0}},{"id":"financial-only","label":"financial only","costUSD":36314414,"exposed":200,"union":200,"treated":100,"events":0,"traumaPeople":100,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"incomePathways":[{"id":"resource-success","people":50,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":15000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":600,"years":1,"editionShare":1,"delayYears":1,"discountRate":0.03,"rationale":"One welfare-equivalent person per participant household. Net stipend/job resources and full attendance, care and work burdens combine before log. Positive benefits alone receive health-overlap reduction.","counterfactual":"Existing public CVI, other jobs and advocates continue. Net gains after taxes, benefit withdrawal, commuting, childcare, replacement earnings and foregone time are judgments, not gross stipend/wages or ordinary survivor earnings.","sourceIds":["cred-employment","cred-99024"]},{"id":"other-exposed","people":150,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":15000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-150,"years":1,"editionShare":1,"delayYears":1,"discountRate":0.03,"rationale":"One welfare-equivalent person per participant household. Net stipend/job resources and full attendance, care and work burdens combine before log. Positive benefits alone receive health-overlap reduction.","counterfactual":"Existing public CVI, other jobs and advocates continue. Net gains after taxes, benefit withdrawal, commuting, childcare, replacement earnings and foregone time are judgments, not gross stipend/wages or ordinary survivor earnings.","sourceIds":["cred-employment","cred-99024"]}],"incomeEquivalent":0.22013848526157698,"incomeUnknown":false,"totalEquivalent":0.22013848526157698,"price10":1649616783.5828352,"costPer10Qalys":1649616783.5828352,"incomeEquivalentYears":0.22013848526157698,"combinedEquivalentYears":0.22013848526157698,"assumptions":"Conditional limited-channel reference; current clinical/net-resource effects and full portfolio unknown.","overrides":{"reduction":0,"traumaQ":0}},{"id":"full-unknown","label":"full unknown","costUSD":36314414,"exposed":200,"union":200,"treated":100,"events":0.25,"traumaPeople":99.75,"allPopulationQalys":null,"editionQalys":null,"incomePathways":[{"id":"resource-success","people":50,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":15000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":600,"years":1,"editionShare":1,"delayYears":1,"discountRate":0.03,"rationale":"One welfare-equivalent person per participant household. Net stipend/job resources and full attendance, care and work burdens combine before log. Positive benefits alone receive health-overlap reduction.","counterfactual":"Existing public CVI, other jobs and advocates continue. Net gains after taxes, benefit withdrawal, commuting, childcare, replacement earnings and foregone time are judgments, not gross stipend/wages or ordinary survivor earnings.","sourceIds":["cred-employment","cred-99024"]},{"id":"other-exposed","people":150,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":15000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-150,"years":1,"editionShare":1,"delayYears":1,"discountRate":0.03,"rationale":"One welfare-equivalent person per participant household. Net stipend/job resources and full attendance, care and work burdens combine before log. Positive benefits alone receive health-overlap reduction.","counterfactual":"Existing public CVI, other jobs and advocates continue. Net gains after taxes, benefit withdrawal, commuting, childcare, replacement earnings and foregone time are judgments, not gross stipend/wages or ordinary survivor earnings.","sourceIds":["cred-employment","cred-99024"]}],"incomeEquivalent":0.22013848526157698,"incomeUnknown":true,"totalEquivalent":null,"price10":null,"costPer10Qalys":null,"incomeEquivalentYears":0.22013848526157698,"combinedEquivalentYears":null,"assumptions":"Conditional limited-channel reference; current clinical/net-resource effects and full portfolio unknown.","overrides":{"clinicalUnknown":true,"incomeUnknown":true}},{"id":"zero-expansion","label":"zero expansion","costUSD":36314414,"exposed":0,"union":0,"treated":0,"events":0,"traumaPeople":0,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"incomePathways":[],"incomeEquivalent":0,"incomeUnknown":false,"totalEquivalent":0,"price10":null,"costPer10Qalys":null,"incomeEquivalentYears":0,"combinedEquivalentYears":0,"assumptions":"Conditional limited-channel reference; current clinical/net-resource effects and full portfolio unknown.","overrides":{"b":0}},{"id":"true-zero","label":"true zero","costUSD":36314414,"exposed":200,"union":200,"treated":100,"events":0,"traumaPeople":100,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"incomePathways":[{"id":"resource-success","people":50,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":15000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":0,"years":1,"editionShare":1,"delayYears":1,"discountRate":0.03,"rationale":"One welfare-equivalent person per participant household. Net stipend/job resources and full attendance, care and work burdens combine before log. Positive benefits alone receive health-overlap reduction.","counterfactual":"Existing public CVI, other jobs and advocates continue. Net gains after taxes, benefit withdrawal, commuting, childcare, replacement earnings and foregone time are judgments, not gross stipend/wages or ordinary survivor earnings.","sourceIds":["cred-employment","cred-99024"]},{"id":"other-exposed","people":150,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":15000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":0,"years":1,"editionShare":1,"delayYears":1,"discountRate":0.03,"rationale":"One welfare-equivalent person per participant household. Net stipend/job resources and full attendance, care and work burdens combine before log. Positive benefits alone receive health-overlap reduction.","counterfactual":"Existing public CVI, other jobs and advocates continue. Net gains after taxes, benefit withdrawal, commuting, childcare, replacement earnings and foregone time are judgments, not gross stipend/wages or ordinary survivor earnings.","sourceIds":["cred-employment","cred-99024"]}],"incomeEquivalent":0,"incomeUnknown":false,"totalEquivalent":0,"price10":null,"costPer10Qalys":null,"incomeEquivalentYears":0,"combinedEquivalentYears":0,"assumptions":"Conditional limited-channel reference; current clinical/net-resource effects and full portfolio unknown.","overrides":{"reduction":0,"traumaQ":0,"jobGain":0,"stipendNet":0,"cost":0}},{"id":"adverse","label":"adverse","costUSD":36314414,"exposed":200,"union":200,"treated":100,"events":0,"traumaPeople":100,"allPopulationQalys":-1.4563106796116505,"editionQalys":-1.4563106796116505,"incomePathways":[{"id":"resource-success","people":50,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":15000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-1650,"years":1,"editionShare":1,"delayYears":1,"discountRate":0.03,"rationale":"One welfare-equivalent person per participant household. Net stipend/job resources and full attendance, care and work burdens combine before log. Positive benefits alone receive health-overlap reduction.","counterfactual":"Existing public CVI, other jobs and advocates continue. Net gains after taxes, benefit withdrawal, commuting, childcare, replacement earnings and foregone time are judgments, not gross stipend/wages or ordinary survivor earnings.","sourceIds":["cred-employment","cred-99024"]},{"id":"other-exposed","people":150,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":15000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-150,"years":1,"editionShare":1,"delayYears":1,"discountRate":0.03,"rationale":"One welfare-equivalent person per participant household. Net stipend/job resources and full attendance, care and work burdens combine before log. Positive benefits alone receive health-overlap reduction.","counterfactual":"Existing public CVI, other jobs and advocates continue. Net gains after taxes, benefit withdrawal, commuting, childcare, replacement earnings and foregone time are judgments, not gross stipend/wages or ordinary survivor earnings.","sourceIds":["cred-employment","cred-99024"]}],"incomeEquivalent":-3.5603112576809677,"incomeUnknown":false,"totalEquivalent":-5.016621937292618,"price10":null,"costPer10Qalys":null,"incomeEquivalentYears":-3.5603112576809677,"combinedEquivalentYears":-5.016621937292618,"assumptions":"Conditional limited-channel reference; current clinical/net-resource effects and full portfolio unknown.","overrides":{"reduction":0,"traumaQ":-0.03,"jobGain":-1500}},{"id":"negative-resources","label":"negative resources","costUSD":36314414,"exposed":200,"union":200,"treated":100,"events":0.25,"traumaPeople":99.75,"allPopulationQalys":1.3563106796116506,"editionQalys":1.3563106796116506,"incomePathways":[{"id":"resource-success","people":50,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":15000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-1800,"years":1,"editionShare":1,"delayYears":1,"discountRate":0.03,"rationale":"One welfare-equivalent person per participant household. Net stipend/job resources and full attendance, care and work burdens combine before log. Positive benefits alone receive health-overlap reduction.","counterfactual":"Existing public CVI, other jobs and advocates continue. Net gains after taxes, benefit withdrawal, commuting, childcare, replacement earnings and foregone time are judgments, not gross stipend/wages or ordinary survivor earnings.","sourceIds":["cred-employment","cred-99024"]},{"id":"other-exposed","people":150,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":15000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-300,"years":1,"editionShare":1,"delayYears":1,"discountRate":0.03,"rationale":"One welfare-equivalent person per participant household. Net stipend/job resources and full attendance, care and work burdens combine before log. Positive benefits alone receive health-overlap reduction.","counterfactual":"Existing public CVI, other jobs and advocates continue. Net gains after taxes, benefit withdrawal, commuting, childcare, replacement earnings and foregone time are judgments, not gross stipend/wages or ordinary survivor earnings.","sourceIds":["cred-employment","cred-99024"]}],"incomeEquivalent":-4.573822656855419,"incomeUnknown":false,"totalEquivalent":-3.217511977243768,"price10":null,"costPer10Qalys":null,"incomeEquivalentYears":-4.573822656855419,"combinedEquivalentYears":-3.217511977243768,"assumptions":"Conditional limited-channel reference; current clinical/net-resource effects and full portfolio unknown.","overrides":{"jobGain":-1500,"stipendNet":0}},{"id":"negative-no-overlap","label":"negative no overlap","costUSD":36314414,"exposed":200,"union":200,"treated":100,"events":0.25,"traumaPeople":99.75,"allPopulationQalys":1.3563106796116506,"editionQalys":1.3563106796116506,"incomePathways":[{"id":"resource-success","people":50,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":15000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-1800,"years":1,"editionShare":1,"delayYears":1,"discountRate":0.03,"rationale":"One welfare-equivalent person per participant household. Net stipend/job resources and full attendance, care and work burdens combine before log. Positive benefits alone receive health-overlap reduction.","counterfactual":"Existing public CVI, other jobs and advocates continue. Net gains after taxes, benefit withdrawal, commuting, childcare, replacement earnings and foregone time are judgments, not gross stipend/wages or ordinary survivor earnings.","sourceIds":["cred-employment","cred-99024"]},{"id":"other-exposed","people":150,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":15000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-300,"years":1,"editionShare":1,"delayYears":1,"discountRate":0.03,"rationale":"One welfare-equivalent person per participant household. Net stipend/job resources and full attendance, care and work burdens combine before log. Positive benefits alone receive health-overlap reduction.","counterfactual":"Existing public CVI, other jobs and advocates continue. Net gains after taxes, benefit withdrawal, commuting, childcare, replacement earnings and foregone time are judgments, not gross stipend/wages or ordinary survivor earnings.","sourceIds":["cred-employment","cred-99024"]}],"incomeEquivalent":-4.573822656855419,"incomeUnknown":false,"totalEquivalent":-3.217511977243768,"price10":null,"costPer10Qalys":null,"incomeEquivalentYears":-4.573822656855419,"combinedEquivalentYears":-3.217511977243768,"assumptions":"Conditional limited-channel reference; current clinical/net-resource effects and full portfolio unknown.","overrides":{"jobGain":-1500,"stipendNet":0,"positiveOverlap":0}},{"id":"matched-stipend","label":"matched stipend","costUSD":36314414,"exposed":200,"union":200,"treated":100,"events":0.25,"traumaPeople":99.75,"allPopulationQalys":1.3563106796116506,"editionQalys":1.3563106796116506,"incomePathways":[{"id":"resource-success","people":50,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":15000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":600,"years":1,"editionShare":1,"delayYears":1,"discountRate":0.03,"rationale":"One welfare-equivalent person per participant household. 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Net gains after taxes, benefit withdrawal, commuting, childcare, replacement earnings and foregone time are judgments, not gross stipend/wages or ordinary survivor earnings.","sourceIds":["cred-employment","cred-99024"]}],"incomeEquivalent":0.22013848526157698,"incomeUnknown":false,"totalEquivalent":1.5764491648732277,"price10":null,"costPer10Qalys":null,"incomeEquivalentYears":0.22013848526157698,"combinedEquivalentYears":1.5764491648732277,"assumptions":"Conditional limited-channel reference; current clinical/net-resource effects and full portfolio unknown.","overrides":{"costUnknown":true}},{"id":"outside-resources-25percent","label":"outside resources 25percent","costUSD":45393017.5,"exposed":200,"union":200,"treated":100,"events":0.25,"traumaPeople":99.75,"allPopulationQalys":1.3563106796116506,"editionQalys":1.3563106796116506,"incomePathways":[{"id":"resource-success","people":50,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":15000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":600,"years":1,"editionShare":1,"delayYears":1,"discountRate":0.03,"rationale":"One welfare-equivalent person per participant household. 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Net gains after taxes, benefit withdrawal, commuting, childcare, replacement earnings and foregone time are judgments, not gross stipend/wages or ordinary survivor earnings.","sourceIds":["cred-employment","cred-99024"]}],"incomeEquivalent":0.22013848526157698,"incomeUnknown":false,"totalEquivalent":1.5764491648732277,"price10":287944695.65817136,"costPer10Qalys":287944695.65817136,"incomeEquivalentYears":0.22013848526157698,"combinedEquivalentYears":1.5764491648732277,"assumptions":"Conditional limited-channel reference; current clinical/net-resource effects and full portfolio unknown.","overrides":{"K":9078603.5}},{"id":"alternate-cohort-200","label":"alternate cohort 200","costUSD":36314414,"exposed":100,"union":100,"treated":50,"events":0.125,"traumaPeople":49.875,"allPopulationQalys":0.6781553398058253,"editionQalys":0.6781553398058253,"incomePathways":[{"id":"resource-success","people":25,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":15000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":600,"years":1,"editionShare":1,"delayYears":1,"discountRate":0.03,"rationale":"One welfare-equivalent person per participant household. 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Net gains after taxes, benefit withdrawal, commuting, childcare, replacement earnings and foregone time are judgments, not gross stipend/wages or ordinary survivor earnings.","sourceIds":["cred-employment","cred-99024"]}],"incomeEquivalent":0.11006924263078849,"incomeUnknown":false,"totalEquivalent":0.7882245824366139,"price10":460711513.05307424,"costPer10Qalys":460711513.05307424,"incomeEquivalentYears":0.11006924263078849,"combinedEquivalentYears":0.7882245824366139,"assumptions":"Conditional limited-channel reference; current clinical/net-resource effects and full portfolio unknown.","overrides":{"N":200}},{"id":"no-health-delay","label":"no health delay","costUSD":36314414,"exposed":200,"union":200,"treated":100,"events":0.25,"traumaPeople":99.75,"allPopulationQalys":1.3969999999999998,"editionQalys":1.3969999999999998,"incomePathways":[{"id":"resource-success","people":50,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":15000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":600,"years":1,"editionShare":1,"delayYears":0,"discountRate":0.03,"rationale":"One welfare-equivalent person per participant household. 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Net gains after taxes, benefit withdrawal, commuting, childcare, replacement earnings and foregone time are judgments, not gross stipend/wages or ordinary survivor earnings.","sourceIds":["cred-employment","cred-99024"]}],"incomeEquivalent":0.22674263981942422,"incomeUnknown":false,"totalEquivalent":1.6237426398194241,"price10":223646365.55974483,"costPer10Qalys":223646365.55974483,"incomeEquivalentYears":0.22674263981942422,"combinedEquivalentYears":1.6237426398194241,"assumptions":"Conditional limited-channel reference; current clinical/net-resource effects and full portfolio unknown.","overrides":{"delay":0,"jobDelay":0}}],"sensitivity":[{"name":"Victimization and selection","result":"Original participant victimization null and 111/324 historical alumni share","interpretation":"Neither completer arrests nor current survey reductions are causal injury utilities."},{"name":"Net resources and duration","result":"No jobs/stipends, signed mixed losses, zero or three-year jobs and later start","interpretation":"One-off cash and attendance costs do not recur; same-household gains and costs are joint."},{"name":"Incidence and scope","result":"Matched transfers, displaced jobs, full union harm and unknown economic costs","interpretation":"Conditional partial ledger is not complete-world or marginal donation EV."}],"missingInputs":["Current unique entrants, dose, validated trauma changes and victimization counterfactual.","Incremental net earnings, stipends, household duplicates and opportunity costs.","Partner grant outcomes, public displacement, full economic costs and next-gift response."],"historicalAlphaModelRef":"docs/geography-discovery/chicago-cred-deep-20261005/initial-diagnostic.json"},"sources":[{"id":"cred-99024","title":"Original calendar 2024 Form 990-PF","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202522209349101107/IRS990PF","publisher":"IRS","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-05"},{"id":"cred-99023","title":"Original calendar 2023 Form 990-PF","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202443179349102489/IRS990PF","publisher":"IRS","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-05"},{"id":"cred-99022","title":"Original calendar 2022 Form 990-PF","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202312429349100621/IRS990PF","publisher":"IRS","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-05"},{"id":"cred-home","title":"Current Chicago services","url":"https://www.chicagocred.org/","publisher":"Chicago CRED","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-05"},{"id":"cred-impact","title":"2025 impact report","url":"https://www.chicagocred.org/impact-report-2025/","publisher":"Chicago CRED","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-05"},{"id":"cred-employment","title":"Employment and training","url":"https://www.chicagocred.org/employment-and-training/","publisher":"Chicago CRED","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-05"},{"id":"cred-give","title":"Current official donation route","url":"https://secure.givelively.org/donate/chicago-cred-inc","publisher":"Chicago CRED / Give Lively","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-05"},{"id":"cred-study","title":"Researchers describe CRED observational evaluation","url":"https://news.northwestern.edu/stories/2023/11/chicago-community-violence-intervention-program-shown-to-reduce-gun-violence?fj=1","publisher":"Northwestern University","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-05"},{"id":"cred-paper","title":"Original PNAS participant evaluation, methods and selection limitations","url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10655595/","publisher":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences","published":"2023-11-06","retrieved":"2026-10-05"},{"id":"cred-evaluation26","title":"CORNERS May 2026 CRED evaluation summary","url":"https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/634dd45091db1de63b7112d9/6a6222c7175dd9d61181d25e_PUBLIC_CRED%202026%20Impact%20Report%20Summary%201%201.pdf","publisher":"Northwestern CORNERS","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-05"},{"id":"cred-brief25","title":"CORNERS November 2025 participant evidence brief","url":"https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/634dd45091db1de63b7112d9/6933145e6b876ce41b4eba6f_CVI%20Participant%20Impact%20Brief_Nov%202025.pdf","publisher":"Northwestern CORNERS","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-10-05"}]}