{"edition":"california","organization":"WorkSafe","organizationId":"org:worksafe","boundaryVersion":"US-CA-state-v1","updated":"2026-09-14","model":{"version":"ca-worksafe-conditional-inspection-v2","costScope":"Full ordinary cash gift to Worksafe, Inc., all programs and support. Historical scale uses gross audited functional expenses including event direct benefits. Public enforcement, employer remediation and partner legal resources are excluded from donor denominator but required for a gross-resource estimate.","geographicAttribution":"Only health gains experienced within the California edition boundary count. g=1 applies to already-filtered California worker-time in the illustrative enforcement branch, not automatically to every nationwide precedent or every worker's future life after leaving California.","formula":"Partial legal-to-protection channel only. Legal-support equivalents U=(C/E)*Y*m; net inspection equivalents I=U*p*n*v; Q_CA=I*B*e*k*L*sum(t=1..T,(1+r)^(-t))*g-H. Central E=1739390,Y=36,m=.5,p=.2,n=1,v=.5,B=3.43,e=.094,k=.5,L=.1,T=4,r=.03,g=1,H=0. All ordinary-recipient costs charged, no program-only allocation discount. Price=10*C/Q_CA for positive Q_CA. Legal-support units are scale proxies, not measured inspections. Systemic policy, training and other pathways remain unquantified.","counterfactual":"Absent an extra donation, existing WorkSafe staff, State Bar grants, reserves, CCIJ and pro bono co-counsel continue planned work; Cal/OSHA continues enforcement and implemented reforms. Historical settlement obligations already exist. Extra complaints may redirect scarce inspectors from other hazardous workplaces rather than add inspections. Count only the net change in timing, coverage, durability or hazard correction.","attribution":"Infer the marginal causal contribution from costed work plans and process evidence, not legal-service totals, a proportion of all California workers, fines or equal division among coalition members. Subtract displaced public enforcement benefits and avoid counting the same injury reduction across legal assistance, training, regulation and inspection branches.","uncertainty":"Conditional analyst central, not an empirically identified marginal return or comprehensive portfolio estimate. Low-confidence multiplicative priors dominate. Scenarios are stress tests, not confidence intervals. Zero, net harm, and larger omitted policy effects remain possible. The positive partial channel is not a demonstrated lower bound.","nativeOutcomes":"Net additional completed inspections, durable verified hazard-corrected worker-years, counterfactual injury or infection cases avoided, finite health loss avoided per unique person. Complaints, legal advice, PPE deliveries, standing decisions, penalties and nominal legal coverage are intermediate outputs. For recurrent or overlapping injuries, cap summed losses using each person's joint utility/survival trajectory; the per-claim illustration assumes non-overlapping losses and is not valid automatically for repeated claims.","inputs":[{"name":"E","value":1739390,"unit":"USD per fiscal year","basis":"observed","rationale":"Gross FY2025 audited all-function expense including donor direct benefits.","sourceIds":["audit25"]},{"name":"Y","value":36,"unit":"reported legal-support service units per report year","basis":"observed","rationale":"The report contents says 36 legal-support units while page 14 says 40. The lower count is a conservative scale anchor, not unique cases, inspections or measured marginal productivity. The report and fiscal year differ.","sourceIds":["impact25"]},{"name":"m","value":0.5,"unit":"marginal to historical scale multiplier","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Judgment: half the historical-scale service capacity is additional after reserves, grants and replacement funding. There is no observed costed funding gap. Charging the entire recipient budget to this channel includes other programs.","sourceIds":["audit25","legal"]},{"name":"p","value":0.2,"unit":"probability per additional support unit","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Judgment: one in five added advice, research or case-support units changes implemented protection beyond existing advocates and agency plans. Successful anecdotes do not identify this probability.","sourceIds":["impact25","legal","settlement"]},{"name":"n","value":1,"unit":"gross inspection-equivalent sites per successful unit","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Prior: one-site equivalent; broad precedent and policy benefits not extrapolated.","sourceIds":["impact25"]},{"name":"v","value":0.5,"unit":"net fraction after public enforcement displacement","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Judgment: half of the gross protection survives diversion of inspectors from other workplaces. The separate p parameter concerns whether legal support changes action; v concerns displaced public action.","sourceIds":["stateaudit","followup"]},{"name":"B","value":3.43,"unit":"claims per establishment-year","basis":"observed","rationale":"The external study reports this descriptive mean. Using it as the current untreated baseline for WorkSafe-supported workplaces is a judgment.","sourceIds":["inspection"]},{"name":"e","value":0.094,"unit":"relative injury claim reduction","basis":"observed","rationale":"External randomized California inspection estimate, not a WorkSafe effect.","sourceIds":["inspection"]},{"name":"k","value":0.5,"unit":"effect-transfer multiplier","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Prior discounts study-to-current-site hazard/compliance differences. Existing July2026 reforms remain in counterfactual.","sourceIds":["inspection","followup"]},{"name":"L","value":0.1,"unit":"QALY per avoided claim","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Judgment: finite health loss per avoided claim, equivalent to a 0.2 utility loss for half a year. No lifetime mortality credit. Recurrent or overlapping losses require person-level caps.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"T","value":4,"unit":"years","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite four-year prevention window; no effect afterward. Claims can recur across years but QALY losses assumed non-overlapping in reference arithmetic.","sourceIds":["inspection"]},{"name":"r","value":0.03,"unit":"annual discount","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Year-end discount convention.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"g","value":1,"unit":"California fraction of modeled benefit","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Channel explicitly filtered to California workplace injury morbidity during the finite window; national precedents uncounted.","sourceIds":["about"]},{"name":"H","value":0,"unit":"QALYs of harm per analytical normalization","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Central convention, not proof of no retaliation or resource harms; separate negative scenario.","sourceIds":[]}],"scenarios":[{"id":"central","label":"Conditional partial legal-protection channel, not portfolio return","costUSD":100000,"allPopulationQalys":0.006201140516679454,"editionQalys":0.006201140516679454,"assumptions":"E=1739390, Y=36, m=0.5, p=0.2, n=1, v=0.5, B=3.43, e=0.094, k=0.5, L=0.1, T=4, r=0.03, g=1, H=0. All recipient costs retained; unmodeled pathways are excluded, not assumed valueless."},{"id":"favorable","label":"Favorable partial-channel stress test","costUSD":100000,"allPopulationQalys":0.9524951833619643,"editionQalys":0.9524951833619643,"assumptions":"E=1739390, Y=40, m=0.8, p=0.6, n=3, v=0.8, B=3.43, e=0.094, k=1, L=0.3, T=4, r=0.03, g=1, H=0. All recipient costs retained; unmodeled pathways are excluded, not assumed valueless."},{"id":"pessimistic","label":"Low marginal protection stress test","costUSD":100000,"allPopulationQalys":1.2957471922558277e-7,"editionQalys":1.2957471922558277e-7,"assumptions":"E=1739390, Y=36, m=0.1, p=0.02, n=1, v=0.1, B=3.43, e=0.094, k=0.1, L=0.01, T=1, r=0.03, g=1, H=0. All recipient costs retained; unmodeled pathways are excluded, not assumed valueless."},{"id":"zero","label":"No additional net protection","costUSD":100000,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"assumptions":"E=1739390, Y=36, m=0, p=0.2, n=1, v=0.5, B=3.43, e=0.094, k=0.5, L=0.1, T=4, r=0.03, g=1, H=0. All recipient costs retained; unmodeled pathways are excluded, not assumed valueless."},{"id":"harm","label":"Net harm stress test","costUSD":100000,"allPopulationQalys":-0.003798859483320546,"editionQalys":-0.003798859483320546,"assumptions":"E=1739390, Y=36, m=0.5, p=0.2, n=1, v=0.5, B=3.43, e=0.094, k=0.5, L=0.1, T=4, r=0.03, g=1, H=0.01. All recipient costs retained; unmodeled pathways are excluded, not assumed valueless."}],"sensitivity":["Price varies inversely with Y, m, p, n, v, B, e, k, L and discounted duration. None is empirically established as WorkSafe's marginal productivity.","Using 40 rather than 36 legal-support units reduces the central price by 10%, much less than uncertainty about implementation.","At the central clinical conversion, $1 million per 10 QALYs requires 16.688 net inspection equivalents per $100,000, versus the central 0.1035. A high-value statewide policy mechanism could do better, but this casework proxy does not establish one.","If advice chiefly improves wages or rights rather than workplace hazards, p can approach zero without implying that the organization lacks other value.","The scope-limited price cannot rank WorkSafe's full advocacy portfolio. Public inspection and employer remediation resources would increase the gross-resource denominator."],"missingInputs":["Current costed ordinary-gift allocation and work forgone absent additional funding.","Net additional completed inspections or implemented protections per funded work increment, including public-capacity displacement and co-counsel counterfactual.","Counterfactual worker-time and injury/infection incidence by affected site, with severity and health-utility duration.","Verified compliance, approval and abatement dates, persistence, recurrence, worker turnover and California residence/time.","Marginal agency, employer and partner costs, harms including retaliation, and overlap across pathways."]},"sources":[{"id":"about","title":"About WorkSafe and financial reports","publisher":"Worksafe, Inc.","url":"https://www.worksafe.org/about/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"donate","title":"Donate to WorkSafe, EIN 94-2927954","publisher":"Worksafe, Inc.","url":"https://www.worksafe.org/donate","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"legal","title":"Legal support campaign","publisher":"Worksafe, Inc.","url":"https://www.worksafe.org/legal-support-campaign","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"watchdog","title":"Agency watchdog","publisher":"Worksafe, Inc.","url":"https://www.worksafe.org/agency-watchdog","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"impact25","title":"2025 Impact Report","publisher":"Worksafe, Inc.","url":"https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Wk5CWjqbOuSlbQawuEGlDAKXR2aTCm0t/view","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"audit25","title":"Audited financial statements, year ended June 30, 2025","publisher":"Worksafe, Inc. / independent auditors","url":"https://www.worksafe.org/s/Worksafe-Audit-2025-Final.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"audit24","title":"Audited financial statements, year ended June 30, 2024, with 2023 comparative totals","publisher":"Worksafe, Inc. / independent auditors","url":"https://www.worksafe.org/s/Worksafe-Audit-2024-Final.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"geo","title":"GEO Group settlement announcement","publisher":"California Collaborative for Immigrant Justice / Worksafe","url":"https://www.ccijustice.org/post/geo-group-calosha-settlement-fine","published":"2026-07-07","retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"settlement","title":"GEO Group / Cal-OSHA settlement agreement and mutual releases","publisher":"GEO Group / California Department of Industrial Relations","url":"https://7330553c-3dac-4189-926d-9d7bbfbf56ea.usrfiles.com/ugd/733055_c8251e33c057428b8aaf01e7ab1c8673.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"standing","title":"GEO Group decision after reconsideration, inspection 1609228","publisher":"California Occupational Safety and Health Appeals Board","url":"https://www.dir.ca.gov/oshab/Decisions/DAR/1609228-Geo-Group.pdf","published":"2025-01-10","retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"inspection","title":"Randomized government safety inspections reduce worker injuries with no detectable job loss","publisher":"Levine, Toffel and Johnson / Science","url":"https://www.hbs.edu/ris/Publication%20Files/LevineToffelJohnson_2012_Science_1e9730f0-4224-4b6a-b1b6-ff0c44d11514.pdf","published":"2012-05-18","retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"stateaudit","title":"Cal/OSHA process deficiencies and staffing shortages, report 2024-115","publisher":"California State Auditor","url":"https://www.auditor.ca.gov/reports/2024-115/","published":"2025-07-17","retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"followup","title":"Current responses and auditor assessments for report 2024-115","publisher":"California State Auditor","url":"https://www.auditor.ca.gov/reports/responses-2024-115-all/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"heat","title":"Cool It: Hazardous Heat, Fast Food and the Path to a Safer Workplace, August 2025","publisher":"Worksafe / California Fast Food Workers Union, SEIU","url":"https://californiafastfoodworkersunion.org/wp-content/uploads/SEIU-HEAT-report-LIVE.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"heatrule","title":"New indoor heat protections approved and effective July 23, 2024","publisher":"California Department of Industrial Relations","url":"https://www.dir.ca.gov/DIRNews/2024/2024-59.html","published":"2024-07-24","retrieved":"2026-09-13"}]}