{"edition":"california","organization":"Western Center on Law & Poverty","organizationId":"org:western-center-on-law-and-poverty","boundaryVersion":"US-CA-state-v1","updated":"2026-09-13","model":{"version":"ca-wclp-coverage-judgment-v2","costScope":"Three years of full recognized operating-recipient gross expense, including separately netted event benefits; excludes separate foundation and avoids transfer duplication. Only a coverage-health component is priced, not complete portfolio or societal return.","geographicAttribution":"g=1 only for the explicitly California-filtered coverage cohort. This is not the share of all organizational or national litigation benefits.","formula":"C=3*7409717=22229151; QCA=N*u*p*a*b*q*(1/1.03+r/1.03^2). Central N=100000,u=.1,p=.2,a=.2,b=.25,q=.02,r=.5 gives 2.8843434819492884 QALYs. Price10=10*C/QCA. No coverage benefit after year two.","counterfactual":"Without the additional gift, existing staff, restricted grants, foundation transfers, public agencies, lawmakers, local legal aid and co-counsel continue their planned work. Count only a change in success probability, timing, scope or implementation above that counterfactual; settled historical cases are not purchased anew. Already mandatory call reporting continues; only additional coverage resolution beyond it enters this branch. Benefits begin during the three-year effort. An additional three-year delay raises the price by 1.03^3, about 9.3%.","attribution":"p is coalition-level success of a specified extra implementation change; a is WCLP's causal share of that change; b is ordinary-funding responsiveness after replacement donors and existing financing. Unlike the prior DeltaP formulation, p does not already include a or b. These distinct assumptions are not empirically calibrated.","uncertainty":"Conditional subjective central for a selected coverage-health component. Population, marginal uptake, implementation and attribution are unobserved priors. Joint cases are not confidence bounds. Zero and harm are retained; unpriced portfolio benefit is not zero.","nativeOutcomes":"Central conditional 10,000 first-year net coverage equivalents become 100 expected donor-attributable first-year equivalents after p*a*b, plus 50 in year two before discount. Calls, training and eligibility are not coverage equivalents.","inputs":[{"name":"Cannual","value":7409717,"unit":"USD per year","basis":"observed","rationale":"7230364 reported operating expense plus 179353 direct event benefits.","sourceIds":["audit25"]},{"name":"cost years","value":3,"unit":"years","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Full recipient cost over a bounded implementation period.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"N","value":100000,"unit":"unique California people","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Unobserved at-risk cohort hypothesis, not dataset call volume; sensitivity 10000–250000.","sourceIds":["callguidance","calldata"]},{"name":"u","value":0.1,"unit":"conditional net coverage gain fraction","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Beyond normal renewal, other insurance and navigation; test .01–.1.","sourceIds":["callguidance"]},{"name":"p","value":0.2,"unit":"additional implementation probability","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Not historical policy win rate; test .05–.5.","sourceIds":["annual25","budget26"]},{"name":"a","value":0.2,"unit":"WCLP causal contribution","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Coalition/public-agency overlap; test .05–.3.","sourceIds":["annual25","99024"]},{"name":"b","value":0.25,"unit":"ordinary-funding responsiveness","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Replacement financing and existing resources; test .05–.5.","sourceIds":["audit25"]},{"name":"q","value":0.02,"unit":"QALY per net coverage-year","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Attenuated 40% of approximately .05 Oregon mapped health-state difference; requires one-year persistence, not measured California yield; test .005–.05.","sourceIds":["oregon","oregonclinical"]},{"name":"r","value":0.5,"unit":"second-year retention fraction","basis":"judgment","rationale":"No benefit after year two; test .25–.9.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"d","value":0.03,"unit":"annual discount rate","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Year-end discount.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"g","value":1,"unit":"California share of specified branch","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Cohort explicitly limited to California residents.","sourceIds":["annual25"]},{"name":"outside costs","value":null,"unit":"incremental societal USD","basis":"unknown","rationale":"Medical, administrative and coalition resources not quantified.","sourceIds":["oregon","99024"]},{"name":"other portfolio health","value":null,"unit":"QALYs","basis":"unknown","rationale":"Housing, public benefits, dentures and birth-center effects unpriced.","sourceIds":["annual25"]}],"scenarios":[{"id":"central","label":"central","costUSD":22229151,"allPopulationQalys":2.8843434819492884,"editionQalys":2.8843434819492884,"assumptions":"N=100000;u=0.1;p=0.2;a=0.2;b=0.25;q=0.02; second-year retention=0.5; three-year cost, at most two coverage years;3% discount. Explicit subjective scenario, not measured WCLP probabilities."},{"id":"low","label":"low","costUSD":22229151,"allPopulationQalys":0.00007540767273070035,"editionQalys":0.00007540767273070035,"assumptions":"N=10000;u=0.01;p=0.05;a=0.05;b=0.05;q=0.005; second-year retention=0.25; three-year cost, at most two coverage years;3% discount. Explicit subjective scenario, not measured WCLP probabilities."},{"id":"high","label":"high","costUSD":22229151,"allPopulationQalys":170.5509473088887,"editionQalys":170.5509473088887,"assumptions":"N=250000;u=0.1;p=0.5;a=0.3;b=0.5;q=0.05; second-year retention=0.9; three-year cost, at most two coverage years;3% discount. Explicit subjective scenario, not measured WCLP probabilities."},{"id":"zero","label":"No additional implementation","costUSD":22229151,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"assumptions":"Complete substitution or no additional coverage."},{"id":"adverse","label":"Illustrative net harm","costUSD":22229151,"allPopulationQalys":-1,"editionQalys":-1,"assumptions":"One California QALY lost through adverse administrative or policy consequences; judgment stress case, not observed."},{"id":"portfolio-unknown","label":"Whole portfolio unestimated","costUSD":22229151,"allPopulationQalys":null,"editionQalys":null,"assumptions":"Other portfolio health remains unresolved."}],"sensitivity":["N,u,p,a,b dominate and remain unverified; no precise success probability is disguised as evidence.","Zero utility or complete replacement gives no health gain. Coverage duration is finite and may be shorter than assumed.","Adding outside resource cost E changes price to10*(22229151+E)/QCA.","No separate mortality, denture or housing QALYs are added to the coverage utility bridge."],"missingInputs":["Current ordinary-gift allocation and costed extra staff/case/implementation plan.","Counterfactual success, timing and scope with and without that extra capacity, holding or modeling co-counsel and agency responses.","Unique marginal California recipients and care uptake, linked to actual coverage or treatment days rather than total eligibility.","Utility trajectories and evidence-transfer by age, condition, policy and replacement care; harms and duration/reversal.","Incremental medical, administrative and partner resources and overlap across policy and legal pathways."]},"sources":[{"id":"donate","title":"Donate and recipient identity","publisher":"Western Center on Law & Poverty","url":"https://wclp.org/donate/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"annual25","title":"2025 Annual Report","publisher":"Western Center on Law & Poverty","url":"https://wclp.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/2025-Annual-Report-FINAL-compressed.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"audit25","title":"2025 audited financial statements, including operating-entity columns","publisher":"Harrington Group / Western Center on Law & Poverty","url":"https://wclp.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/WCLP-25-Final-FS.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"audit24","title":"2024 audited financial statements","publisher":"Harrington Group / Western Center on Law & Poverty","url":"https://wclp.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/WCLP-24-FINAL-FS.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"audit23","title":"2023 audited financial statements","publisher":"Harrington Group / Western Center on Law & Poverty","url":"https://wclp.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/2023-WCLP-Audited-Financials.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"99024","title":"2024 Form 990, Part III and Schedule I","publisher":"Western Center on Law & Poverty / IRS","url":"https://wclp.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/WCLP-Public-990-12.31.24.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"budget26","title":"Enacted 2026–27 health budget comparison with statutory citations","publisher":"Western Center on Law & Poverty","url":"https://wclp.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/WCLP-2026-27-Health-Budget-Comparison_7.16.26-with-citations.pdf","published":"2026-07-16","retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"sb1289","title":"2024 Legislative Summary: SB 1289 co-sponsors and implementation","publisher":"California Department of Health Care Services","url":"https://www.dhcs.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/2024-Legislative-Summary.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"callguidance","title":"All County Welfare Directors Letter 25-32","publisher":"California Department of Health Care Services","url":"https://www.dhcs.ca.gov/services/medi-cal/eligibility/letters/Documents/25-32.pdf","published":"2025-12-30","retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"calldata","title":"County Medi-Cal Call Center Data; updated September 5, 2026","publisher":"California Department of Health Care Services","url":"https://lab.data.ca.gov/dataset/county-medi-cal-call-center-data","published":"2026-08-06","retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"birth","title":"AB 55 revised licensing requirements, AFL 26-10","publisher":"California Department of Public Health","url":"https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CHCQ/LCP/Pages/AFL-26-10.aspx","published":"2026-03-03","retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"birthreport","title":"Opening Doors to Birth Centers","publisher":"Western Center on Law & Poverty and research collaborators","url":"https://wclp.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Opening-Doors-to-Birth-Centers-Final-5.27.25.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"oregon","title":"The Value of Medicaid: Interpreting Results from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment","publisher":"Finkelstein, Hendren and Luttmer / Journal of Political Economy","url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8081392/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"oregonclinical","title":"The Oregon Experiment—Effects of Medicaid on Clinical Outcomes","publisher":"Baicker et al. / New England Journal of Medicine","url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3701298/","published":"2013-05-02","retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"mortality","title":"Medicaid and Mortality: New Evidence from Linked Survey and Administrative Data","publisher":"Miller, Johnson and Wherry / NBER","url":"https://www.nber.org/papers/w26081","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"bar","title":"At a Precipice funding brief announcement","publisher":"State Bar of California","url":"https://www.calbar.ca.gov/news/state-bar-report-finds-funding-cuts-would-severely-weaken-legal-aid-lifeline-millions-californians","published":"2025-11-24","retrieved":"2026-09-13"}]}