{"edition":"california","organization":"Nourish California","organizationId":"org:nourish-california","boundaryVersion":"US-CA-state-v1","updated":"2026-09-14","model":{"version":"ca-nourish-implementation-slice-v2","costScope":"All recipient annual audited expenses, not restricted campaign cost. Priced health is only a conditional produce-incentive access component. Public incentive and unrecognized volunteer resources are separately disclosed, so central is a donor-resource price rather than complete societal cost-effectiveness.","geographicAttribution":"g_CA=1 for the explicitly modeled California CalFresh participant branch. No household multiplier, outside-state benefit or headquarters population shortcut.","formula":"Y=N*T*p*a*b; Q_CA=Y*u/(1+d). N is conditional additional California participants beyond funded baseline; T finite years of improved nutrition state; p coalition incremental implementation, a Nourish attribution, b gift response. C=E; P10=10*C/Q_CA. Public incentive sensitivity adds N*6*30*p*a*b to C centrally. Q_other_CA remains unknown.","counterfactual":"Existing public appropriations, CDSS/CalSAWS operations, co-sponsors, retailers, grants and alternate assistance proceed without the extra gift. A temporarily paused but funded program is not an unfunded expansion by default.","attribution":"p, a and b are distinct priors and applied once. N already means additional access beyond existing funded operations; it is not all pilot participants. The assumed improved food state incorporates purchase substitution; no second independent diet multiplier is added.","uncertainty":"Uncalibrated policy and utility priors dominate. This is a transparent conditional best estimate, not a confidence interval or complete portfolio value. Nutrition-state change does not have an established one-to-one QALY conversion. The utility prior represents expected net health area over the stated finite horizon, including treatment burden, within-horizon fade and competing mortality; it is not an endpoint score held indefinitely. No survival extension is credited.","nativeOutcomes":"Central 50 additional participant-equivalents for six months, or 25 person-years of improved nutrition access after causal adjustment. This is a modeled state, not observed reduced food insecurity or a count of redeemed transactions.","inputs":[{"name":"E","value":1710797,"unit":"USD/year audited full-recipient expenses","basis":"observed","rationale":"Current original audit, all functions.","sourceIds":["audit25"]},{"name":"N","value":10000,"unit":"conditional additional California participants","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Judgment of incremental implementation scale; not the historical 155,635 households or a forecast.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"T","value":0.5,"unit":"years of improved nutrition state","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Six months only; no later health persistence.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"p","value":0.1,"unit":"incremental coalition implementation fraction","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Subjective probability/intensity beyond the funded restart, not enactment probability.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"a","value":0.2,"unit":"Nourish causal contribution fraction","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Subjective contribution within coalition; co-leadership not sole credit.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"b","value":0.25,"unit":"ordinary funding response","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Substitution, capacity and reserves discounted once.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"u","value":0.005,"unit":"QALY per improved nutrition-state person-year","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Judgment; randomized food-security and modeled diet evidence motivate direction but do not calibrate this utility.","sourceIds":["sebt","qaly"]},{"name":"d","value":0.03,"unit":"annual discount rate","basis":"judgment","rationale":"End-of-year finite delivery convention.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"incentive","value":30,"unit":"USD/month conditional public incentive","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Judgment below current $60 cap; not average redemption or a QALY input.","sourceIds":["funding"]},{"name":"Q_other_CA","value":null,"unit":"California QALYs","basis":"unknown","rationale":"Immigrant access and other nutrition-policy pathways omitted, not assigned zero true value.","sourceIds":[]}],"scenarios":[{"id":"central","label":"Conditional nutrition-access central","costUSD":1710797,"allPopulationQalys":0.12135922330097088,"editionQalys":0.12135922330097088,"assumptions":"N=10000; T=.5; p=.1; a=.2; b=.25; u=.005; d=.03."},{"id":"low","label":"Weak implementation and health","costUSD":1710797,"allPopulationQalys":0.000024271844660194176,"editionQalys":0.000024271844660194176,"assumptions":"N=1000; T=.25; p=.02; a=.05; b=.1; u=.001; d=.03."},{"id":"high","label":"Favorable finite implementation","costUSD":1710797,"allPopulationQalys":36.407766990291265,"editionQalys":36.407766990291265,"assumptions":"N=50000; T=1; p=.25; a=.3; b=.5; u=.02; d=.03."},{"id":"zero","label":"No added access","costUSD":1710797,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"assumptions":"p=0 or b=0."},{"id":"adverse","label":"Net adverse stress","costUSD":1710797,"allPopulationQalys":-1,"editionQalys":-1,"assumptions":"One California QALY lost from displaced better services or unintended effects; subjective stress, not observed."},{"id":"portfolio","label":"Complete portfolio unpriced","costUSD":1710797,"allPopulationQalys":null,"editionQalys":null,"assumptions":"Other pathways are unknown."},{"id":"public-resource","label":"Add attributable incentive face amount","costUSD":1719797,"allPopulationQalys":0.12135922330097088,"editionQalys":0.12135922330097088,"assumptions":"Same clinical model; adds 10000*6*30*.1*.2*.25=$9000. Face value is a conservative resource sensitivity, not net social cost."}],"sensitivity":["Central price $140969672.8 per ten California QALYs; public-face-resource sensitivity $141711272.8.","Halving duration or utility doubles the price. Implementation delay increases price; no restart alone earns credit.","Strong case is not a calibrated upper bound. Costs of volunteers, public administration and health opportunity costs remain incomplete."],"missingInputs":["Current ordinary-dollar staffing/campaign allocation and funding substitution.","Gift-induced policy implementation probability or timing.","Affected new benefit recipients and additional redeemed benefits versus alternative assistance.","Finite utility/survival effects for each actual nutrition intervention.","Public resource opportunity costs, failures, harms and overlap with coalition partners."]},"sources":[{"id":"audit25","title":"FY2025 audited financial statements","publisher":"Nourish California","url":"https://nourishca.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Nourish-June-2025-Audit-Report-Final-Signed.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"audit24","title":"FY2024 audited financial statements with FY2023 comparison","publisher":"Nourish California","url":"https://nourishca.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Nourish-CA-Audit-Report-June-2024-Final-Signed.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"ab1049","title":"Current sponsor-deeming campaign","publisher":"Nourish California","url":"https://nourishca.org/whats-fresh/blog-category/how-ab-1049-will-remove-barriers-to-food-access-for-immigrants/","published":"2026-08-27","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"bill","title":"AB1049 enrolled text","publisher":"California Legislature","url":"https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=202520260AB1049","published":"2026-09-01","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"fiscal","title":"AB1049 Assembly Appropriations analysis","publisher":"California Assembly Committee on Appropriations, mirrored by TrackBill","url":"https://trackbill.com/s3/bills/CA/2025/AB/1049/analyses/assembly-appropriations.pdf","published":"2025-04-23","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"funding","title":"Current fruit and vegetable EBT pilot status","publisher":"California Department of Social Services","url":"https://cdss.ca.gov/inforesources/ebt/california-fruit-vegetable-ebt-pilot-project","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"evaluation","title":"Fruit and vegetable EBT pilot legislative evaluation","publisher":"California Department of Social Services","url":"https://www.cdss.ca.gov/portals/9/RADD/CalFresh_Fruit_and_Vegetable_EBT_Pilot_Project_Legislative_Report.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"coalition","title":"2026 fruit and vegetable funding request","publisher":"Nourish California and coalition signatories","url":"https://nourishca.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/2026-CalFresh-Fruit-Veg-Coalition-Sign-On-Letter-2.24.26.pdf","published":"2026-02-24","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"sebt","title":"Randomized Summer EBT food-security findings","publisher":"Klerman et al., Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy","url":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1093/aepp/ppw030","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"qaly","title":"SNAP financial incentives microsimulation","publisher":"Mozaffarian et al., PLOS Medicine","url":"https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1002661","published":"2018-10-02","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"donate","title":"Official donation route and portfolio","publisher":"Nourish California","url":"https://nourishca.org/get-involved/donate/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"}]}