{"edition":"california","organization":"Comité Cívico del Valle","organizationId":"org:comite-civico-del-valle","boundaryVersion":"US-CA-state-v1","updated":"2026-09-13","model":{"version":"ca-ccv-air-implementation-judgment-v2","costScope":"Three years of full recorded recipient expense; selected air implementation health only. Outside mitigation resources unquantified.","geographicAttribution":"g=.9 subjective California share of modeled older-adult exposure benefit; cross-border activity excluded by this adjustment, not headquarters.","formula":"C=3*6458632=19375896; beta=ln(1.07)/10; h1=h0*exp(-beta*delta). S0(t)=exp(-h0*t); S1(t)=exp(-h1*min(t,T)-h0*max(0,t-T)). Qconditional=N*u*integral(0..L)[(S1-S0)*exp(-.03*t)]dt. QCA=Qconditional*p*a*b*g. N=20000,delta=.2,h0=.04,T=5,L=10,u=.8,p=.2,a=.25,b=.25,g=.9 gives QCA=.241461481251. Price10=10*C/QCA.","counterfactual":"Existing monitors, court-ordered review, public controls and partner work continue. Count only implementation beyond that baseline. Monitoring/calibration or an EIR revision is not itself reduced exposure. Alternate clean-energy supply and displaced emissions matter. The central assumes exposure improvement begins during the three-year spending effort, without an extra implementation lag. A three-year delay alone raises the price by exp(0.09), about 9.4%.","attribution":"One air implementation scenario, not all coalition wins. p success precedes CCV share a and funding b. Closed-cohort survival prevents repeat lifetime gains; no separate asthma/heat QALYs added.","uncertainty":"Explicit subjective conditional central, not empirical success rates or complete portfolio expected value. Positive joint cases are not confidence bounds. Zero and harm remain possible.","nativeOutcomes":"Conditional extra .2 ug/m3 PM2.5 for 20,000 older adults for 5 years equals 20,000 person-ug/m3-years. This is unobserved scenario exposure, not monitor count or PM10 conversion.","inputs":[{"name":"Cannual","value":6458632,"unit":"USD annual recorded recipient expense","basis":"observed","rationale":"Original Form 990 total functional expenses, including depreciation; no additional netted-cost amount was verified in this revision.","sourceIds":["99024"]},{"name":"Ycost","value":3,"unit":"years of organizing cost","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Bounded prospective effort.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"N","value":20000,"unit":"older adults","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Unverified older-adult exposure cohort, test5,000–50,000; not observed court beneficiaries.","sourceIds":["air"]},{"name":"delta","value":0.2,"unit":"ug/m3 extra annual PM2.5 reduction","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Extra PM2.5 only, not all dust; test .01–.5.","sourceIds":["air"]},{"name":"beta","value":0.006765864847381486,"unit":"log hazard per ug/m3","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Representative source anchor within reported full-cohort HR1.06–1.08 per10.","sourceIds":["pm-causal"]},{"name":"h0","value":0.04,"unit":"annual mortality hazard","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Older-adult prior, not local observed rate; test .02–.06.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"T","value":5,"unit":"years of lower hazard","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Hazard effect then stops.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"L","value":10,"unit":"years of survival follow-up","basis":"judgment","rationale":"No benefit thereafter; test5–15.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"u","value":0.8,"unit":"survival quality weight","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Not measured utility; test .6–.9.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"p","value":0.2,"unit":"specified implementation success probability","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Not empirically calibrated; test .05–.5.","sourceIds":["appeal"]},{"name":"a","value":0.25,"unit":"CCV coalition contribution","basis":"judgment","rationale":"CCV coalition share, not entire litigation or agency effect; test .05–.5.","sourceIds":["appeal"]},{"name":"b","value":0.25,"unit":"ordinary-support funding response","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Existing public grants/reserves and alternate donors; test .05–.75.","sourceIds":["99024","home"]},{"name":"g","value":0.9,"unit":"California benefit share","basis":"judgment","rationale":"California share of modeled exposure benefit, test .7–1.","sourceIds":["air"]},{"name":"d","value":0.03,"unit":"annual continuous discount","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Applied in finite integral.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"Qother","value":null,"unit":"other portfolio health","basis":"unknown","rationale":"Asthma, heat, relief and energy pathways remain unpriced.","sourceIds":["home"]}],"scenarios":[{"id":"central","label":"central","costUSD":19375896,"allPopulationQalys":0.2682905347234522,"editionQalys":0.241461481251107,"assumptions":"N=20000;delta=0.2 ug/m3;h0=0.04;T=5;L=10;u=0.8;p=0.2;a=0.25;b=0.25;g=0.9; beta=ln(1.07)/10;discount=.03. Subjective joint scenario; footprint/success unmeasured."},{"id":"low","label":"low","costUSD":19375896,"allPopulationQalys":0.0000035078182252077645,"editionQalys":0.000002455472757645435,"assumptions":"N=5000;delta=0.01 ug/m3;h0=0.02;T=2;L=5;u=0.6;p=0.05;a=0.05;b=0.05;g=0.7; beta=ln(1.07)/10;discount=.03. Subjective joint scenario; footprint/success unmeasured."},{"id":"high","label":"high","costUSD":19375896,"allPopulationQalys":51.88767308857389,"editionQalys":51.88767308857389,"assumptions":"N=50000;delta=0.5 ug/m3;h0=0.06;T=5;L=15;u=0.9;p=0.5;a=0.5;b=0.75;g=1; beta=ln(1.07)/10;discount=.03. Subjective joint scenario; footprint/success unmeasured."},{"id":"zero","label":"No additional implementation","costUSD":19375896,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"assumptions":"p,b or delta=0."},{"id":"adverse","label":"Illustrative net harm","costUSD":19375896,"allPopulationQalys":-1,"editionQalys":-1,"assumptions":"One California QALY net harm from displaced emissions or energy delay; not observed."},{"id":"portfolio-unknown","label":"Whole portfolio unestimated","costUSD":19375896,"allPopulationQalys":null,"editionQalys":null,"assumptions":"Asthma/heat/relief/energy pathways unresolved, not assumed zero."}],"sensitivity":["Footprint,p,a,b dominate; none is source-calibrated.","External mitigation resources E change price to10*(19375896+E)/QCA.","No PM10/metal coefficient or lifetime project benefit imported.","Local asthma trial remains counterevidence to a positive asthma proxy."],"missingInputs":["Specific mitigation caused by additional capacity.","Measured PM2.5 exposure and resident cohort.","Coalition/public counterfactual and funding response.","Outside mitigation costs and energy tradeoffs.","Other portfolio health."]},"sources":[{"id":"home","title":"Current initiatives and organization","url":"https://ccvhealth.org/","publisher":"Comité Cívico del Valle","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"asthma","title":"Current asthma intervention and management","url":"https://ccvhealth.org/asthma-intervention","publisher":"Comité Cívico del Valle","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"air","title":"Air-quality network and monitoring initiatives","url":"https://ccvhealth.org/air-quality","publisher":"Comité Cívico del Valle","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"heat","title":"Taking on the Heat initiative","url":"https://ccvhealth.org/extreme-heat","publisher":"Comité Cívico del Valle","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"relief","title":"Share and Care","url":"https://ccvhealth.org/share-and-care","publisher":"Comité Cívico del Valle","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"appeal","title":"CCV reports lithium-project environmental review appeal","url":"https://ccvhealth.org/news/california-court-of-appeal-orders-imperial-county-to-correct-major-environmental-deficiencies-in-hells-kitchen-lithium-project-approval","publisher":"Comité Cívico del Valle","published":"2026-08-11","retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"grant","title":"CalEPA announces EJ Action Grants including CCV asthma project","url":"https://calepa.ca.gov/2024/03/07/blog-ej-action-grants-announcement/","publisher":"California Environmental Protection Agency","published":"2024-03-07","retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"99024","title":"Original FY2024 Form 990","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/330411322/202533189349315318/full","publisher":"Comité Cívico del Valle / IRS","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"99023","title":"Original FY2023 Form 990 with FY2022 comparative figures","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/330411322/202403199349314080/full","publisher":"Comité Cívico del Valle / IRS","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"local-trial","title":"Respira Sano primary comparative-effectiveness report, April 2021","url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK599376/","publisher":"Elder and colleagues, PCORI / San Diego State University Research Foundation","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"seattle-trial","title":"Randomized home visits for Medicaid-enrolled children with asthma","url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26270287/","publisher":"Campbell and colleagues, American Journal of Public Health","published":"2015-08-13","retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"seattle-registry","title":"CDC Medicaid Asthma Home Visit Project registry","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT02258308","publisher":"Public Health—Seattle and King County / ClinicalTrials.gov","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"action","title":"Current action page, petition rather than donation form","url":"https://ccvhealth.org/take-action","publisher":"Comité Cívico del Valle","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"pm-causal","title":"Long-term PM2.5 and elderly mortality causal-inference study","url":"https://xiaowu.io/publication/wu2020evaluating/wu2020evaluating.pdf","publisher":"Wu and colleagues / Science Advances","published":"2020-07-17","retrieved":"2026-09-14"}]}