{"edition":"california","organization":"Coalition for Clean Air","organizationId":"org:coalition-for-clean-air","boundaryVersion":"US-CA-state-v1","updated":"2026-09-14","model":{"version":"ca-cca-judgment-partial-health-v2","costScope":"Five full latest-year gross reported recipient budgets, across all programs and support, normalized linearly to a $10,000 ordinary gift. No policy-only cost carveout. External social resources unpriced.","geographicAttribution":"Only California-resident health during the finite window is counted; 1.5 million older adults is an analyst-selected conditional exposed cohort, not observed reach. CA and LA are nested views of the same recipient; never add them. The statewide 1.5m and local 0.5m central cohorts are separate judgment exposure denominators, not measured shares. allPopulationQalys includes the modeled California branch only.","formula":"h1=h0*exp(-ln(HR)/10*transport*pm); rho=ln(1.03); F(a,t)=(1-exp(-a*t))/a. qD=u*(F(h1+rho,T)-F(h0+rho,T)). a=min(A,T). qT=u*(F(h1+rho,a)-F(h0+rho,a)+(1-exp(-(h0-h1)*a))*(exp(-(h1+rho)*a)-exp(-(h1+rho)*T))/(h1+rho)). q=(f*qD+(1-f)*qT)/1.03^L. Qgift=10000/(E*Y)*b*(p*N*q-harm). Price=100000/Qgift if positive. N is cohort alive at implementation; no extra survival-to-implementation multiplier. Costs are constant-real full budgets; no cost discount haircut.","counterfactual":"Existing grants, planned YMCA upgrades, partner work, statutory testing and public budgets continue absent the new gift. Measure only extra duration, coverage, compliance, policy probability or exposure reduction. A monitor that reveals pollution without changing exposure yields no health in this branch. Policy/technical capacity changes the probability of additional transport/freight emissions controls or implementation beyond adopted rules, the current ports agreement and already-agreed public funding. Current activities establish a live mechanism, not the assumed probability or PM reduction. YMCA device gaps and indoor/outdoor percentages do not determine this ambient older-adult model.","attribution":"p is the incremental recipient-specific probability effect of a five-year whole-organization effort versus partner/regulator action without it. b models donation-sensitive capacity after replacement funding, distinct from coalition p. Local linear extrapolation to a small gift is judgment and can fail at lumpy capacity thresholds.","uncertainty":"Explicit judgment central, not identified causal charity effectiveness. Wide scenarios include clinical-null, no-policy-effect and harm. This is not a complete portfolio estimate or a reason to override donor diligence.","nativeOutcomes":"Additional annual ambient PM2.5 exposure reduction among an explicitly modeled older cohort; finite discounted all-cause survival differences, without adding overlapping mortality/morbidity or lead/IQ units.","inputs":[{"name":"E","value":2494912,"unit":"USD per recipient year","basis":"observed","rationale":"Latest original filing, full reported gross expense.","sourceIds":["99025"]},{"name":"Y","value":5,"unit":"budget years","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"N","value":1500000,"unit":"local older people alive at implementation","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Conditional policy exposure cohort selected for plausibility, not measured reach or demographic allocation.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"Nall","value":1500000,"unit":"people in all quantified branches","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"pm","value":0.2,"unit":"micrograms/m³ sustained ambient reduction","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"p","value":0.1,"unit":"incremental policy probability","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Low incremental probability over five years reflects multiple actors, existing rules and legal reversal; unelicited analyst judgment.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"b","value":0.5,"unit":"marginal funding response","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Replacement funding/reserves uncertainty; smaller CBE response reflects materially larger reported unrestricted balances.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"HR","value":1.06,"unit":"hazard ratio per 10 micrograms/m³ higher PM2.5","basis":"observed","rationale":"External older US Medicare cohort estimate; conditional causal interpretation, not a CCA/CBE trial.","sourceIds":["wu"]},{"name":"transport","value":0.7,"unit":"multiplier on log HR","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"h0","value":0.035,"unit":"annual all-cause mortality hazard","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"u","value":0.75,"unit":"utility among survivors","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"T","value":10,"unit":"finite years after implementation","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"L","value":3,"unit":"years to implementation","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"f","value":0.5,"unit":"durable branch share","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"A","value":3,"unit":"years of acceleration","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"harm","value":0,"unit":"other QALYs lost per five-year effort before b","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Explicit finite partial-health modeling judgment; requires empirical refinement.","sourceIds":[]}],"scenarios":[{"id":"central","label":"Judgment central: partial older-adult air health","costUSD":10000,"qDurable":0.0007043279574077133,"qTiming":0.0003827633501901487,"qConditional":0.0004974212715517517,"fullBudgetEditionQalys":37.30659536638138,"editionQalys":0.029906141271821514,"allPopulationQalys":0.029906141271821514,"costPer10Qalys":3343794.8109414927,"inputs":{"E":2494912,"Y":5,"N":1500000,"Nall":1500000,"pm":0.2,"p":0.1,"b":0.5,"HR":1.06,"transport":0.7,"h0":0.035,"u":0.75,"T":10,"L":3,"f":0.5,"A":3,"harm":0},"assumptions":"All nonfinancial parameters except the external HR are explicitly analyst judgment; scenario bundle is not an empirical interval. 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Full five-year expense denominator; no gift restriction assumed."},{"id":"clinical-null","label":"No causal clinical transfer","costUSD":10000,"qDurable":0,"qTiming":0,"qConditional":0,"fullBudgetEditionQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"allPopulationQalys":0,"costPer10Qalys":null,"inputs":{"E":2494912,"Y":5,"N":1500000,"Nall":1500000,"pm":0.2,"p":0.1,"b":0.5,"HR":1.06,"transport":0,"h0":0.035,"u":0.75,"T":10,"L":3,"f":0.5,"A":3,"harm":0},"assumptions":"All nonfinancial parameters except the external HR are explicitly analyst judgment; scenario bundle is not an empirical interval. 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Full five-year expense denominator; no gift restriction assumed."},{"id":"harm","label":"No policy benefit and ten QALYs of other harm per five-year effort","costUSD":10000,"qDurable":0.0007043279574077133,"qTiming":0.0003827633501901487,"qConditional":0.0004974212715517517,"fullBudgetEditionQalys":-5,"editionQalys":-0.004008157401944437,"allPopulationQalys":-0.004008157401944437,"costPer10Qalys":null,"inputs":{"E":2494912,"Y":5,"N":1500000,"Nall":1500000,"pm":0.2,"p":0,"b":0.5,"HR":1.06,"transport":0.7,"h0":0.035,"u":0.75,"T":10,"L":3,"f":0.5,"A":3,"harm":10},"assumptions":"All nonfinancial parameters except the external HR are explicitly analyst judgment; scenario bundle is not an empirical interval. Full five-year expense denominator; no gift restriction assumed."}],"sensitivity":["Favorable/poor bundles vary several linked assumptions and are not probabilistic credible intervals.","Tenfold reduction in p increases price tenfold.","N and exposure are conditional on reform, not multiplied by total state population or total historic policy benefits.","Timing-only model compares gift and delayed-policy survival through the same finite endpoint.","Zero-net omitted pathways is a provisional central judgment; harms can reverse the result."],"missingInputs":["Costed current ordinary-gift allocation and the work not funded without it.","Gift-induced policy probability/timing/compliance change or additional filtration duration/deployments, net of grants and partner replacement.","Unique California beneficiaries, time-activity patterns, counterfactual exposure concentration and pollutant mixture.","Age-specific health hazards, utility trajectories, causal transfer, implementation duration and reversals.","Incremental societal costs, geographic spillovers, harms and overlap across pollution, climate and clinical outcomes."],"priceScope":"Judgment-based partial-health; full recipient expenses; not all-resource social cost","centralInterpretation":"A transparent tentative belief about a narrowly quantified health branch, not evidence of a currently unfunded grant opportunity."},"sources":[{"id":"about","title":"Coalition for Clean Air: current mission and projects","publisher":"Coalition for Clean Air","url":"https://www.ccair.org/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"donate","title":"General individual donation form","publisher":"Coalition for Clean Air","url":"https://ccair.app.neoncrm.com/forms/donate","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"99025","title":"Form 990 for July 2024–June 2025","publisher":"Coalition for Clean Air / IRS","url":"https://www.ccair.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/2024-2025-CCA-Form-990.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"99024","title":"Form 990 for July 2023–June 2024, with FY2023 comparison","publisher":"Coalition for Clean Air / IRS","url":"https://www.ccair.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/2023-CCA-Form-990.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"financial","title":"Financial information and current returns","publisher":"Coalition for Clean Air","url":"https://www.ccair.org/about/financial/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"airaware","title":"AirAware YMCA project and current report index","publisher":"Coalition for Clean Air","url":"https://www.ccair.org/projects/airaware-ymcas/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"baseline","title":"First annual AirAware air-quality report","publisher":"AirAware team / Coalition for Clean Air","url":"https://www.ccair.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/AirAware2025_1stAnnualAirQualityReport.pdf","published":"2025-10-22","retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"quarter26","title":"Corona-Norco YMCA quarterly report, April–June 2026, including July 6 data","publisher":"AirAware team / Coalition for Clean Air","url":"https://www.ccair.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/2026.07.01_Corona-Norco-YMCA-Y2Q2-Report.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"budget","title":"Statement supporting 2026 state clean-transportation budget agreement","publisher":"Coalition for Clean Air","url":"https://www.ccair.org/statement-coalition-for-clean-air-supports-2026-state-budget-deal-to-fund-clean-cars-trucks-and-buses-and-community-air-protection/","published":"2026-06-30","retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"repeal","title":"Comment on proposed locomotive-rule repeal","publisher":"Coalition for Clean Air","url":"https://www.ccair.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/CCA-Comment-letter-on-Loco-Rule-Repeal-6.16.25.pdf","published":"2025-06-16","retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"ctc","title":"Clean Truck Check program and projected benefits","publisher":"California Air Resources Board","url":"https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/CTC/about","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"ctccurrent","title":"Clean Truck Check current requirements and guidance","publisher":"California Air Resources Board","url":"https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/inspection-and-maintenance-program/hd-im-fact-sheets","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"wu","title":"Evaluating long-term fine particulate exposure and mortality among the elderly","publisher":"Wu and colleagues / Science Advances","url":"https://xiaowu.io/publication/wu2020evaluating/wu2020evaluating.pdf","published":"2020-07-17","retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"di","title":"Air pollution and mortality in the Medicare population","publisher":"Di and colleagues / New England Journal of Medicine","url":"https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1702747","published":"2017-06-29","retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"99023","title":"Original organization-posted FY2023 Form990 copy","url":"https://www.ccair.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/CCA-Form-990-2022-23.pdf","publisher":"Coalition for Clean Air","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"}]}