{"edition":"california","organization":"The Children's Partnership","organizationId":"org:childrens-partnership","boundaryVersion":"US-CA-state-v1","updated":"2026-10-07","display":{"metric":{"id":"daly-equivalent","years":1,"label":"DALY","priceLabel":"$ / DALY"},"priceUSD":16012951.66136665,"canonicalPriceUSDPerTenEquivalentYears":160129516.6136665,"conversion":"display only; QALYs and income equivalents are not measured clinical DALYs"},"listDisplay":{"metric":{"id":"daly-equivalent","years":1,"label":"DALY","priceLabel":"$ / DALY"},"priceUSD":16012951.66136665,"canonicalPriceUSDPerTenEquivalentYears":160129516.6136665,"conversion":"display only; QALYs and income equivalents are not measured clinical DALYs"},"model":{"version":"ca-tcp-alpha-signed-resources-v2","costScope":"All recipient accrual spending for three prospective years at FY2025 scale; no special gift restriction. Agency/public implementation spending is not added to recognized recipient expense. This is a private-donor price, not societal cost-effectiveness.","geographicAttribution":"The modeled renewal population consists of California Medi-Cal residents; g=1 for this branch only. National policy spillovers, other TCP work and non-health welfare are excluded, not assumed geographically identical.","formula":"C=3*E. A=1/(1+d)^2+1/(1+d)^3. Y=N*r*u*A*p*a*b. Q_CA=Y*q+Q_other. P10=10*C/Q_CA when Q_CA>0. Central Q_other=0 is an accounting exclusion for the priced slice, not a finding of no other benefit. Resource households=(C/(3E))*N*r*p*a*b/householdMembers BEFORE clinicalu; cashbenefit groups restricted to u*saverShare, paperwork effect/fullcosts all households. Joint net=positive-overlap-adjusted actual savings minus FULLburden; income=.5*sum(groupPeople*PVyears2and3*log1p(net/before)). Three-yearcost/horizon preserved; gift100000scalesboth.","counterfactual":"Already planned county automation, federal compliance, other advocates and the funded pilot proceed without the additional ordinary gift. A future renewal reform must improve on that baseline; present AB2201 is held, not enacted. No effect from merely preserving current grant-supported activity is credited.","attribution":"p is coalition-induced incremental implementation probability over a three-year support window, including revival/appropriation, not the chance some law passes. a assigns only TCP's portion of that coalition contribution. b discounts additional ordinary funding for substitution, reserves and marginal capacity. No six-way equal attribution inferred from co-sponsorship.","uncertainty":"High structural and subjective uncertainty. This finite central is a policy-option planning prior, not an empirically identified posterior or total portfolio return. Other policy and pilot outcomes could dominate either way. Scenarios are stress cases, not bounds or confidence intervals. The utility prior represents expected net health area over the stated finite horizon, including treatment burden, within-horizon fade and competing mortality; it is not an endpoint score held indefinitely. No survival extension is credited. Household grouping, genuine paperwork/time saving, costs, baseline and medical cash incidence are judgments. Full childcare/CHW/workforce/peer and immigrant-family portfolio effects remain unknown.","nativeOutcomes":"Discounted additional California person-years insured rather than uninsured due to a funding-sensitive renewal reform. Central 46.4434392122 additional insured person-years, converted to 0.9288687842 QALYs. Counts of bill supporters, school users, grants and favorable responses are not health outcomes.","inputs":[{"name":"E","value":4976568,"unit":"USD/year","basis":"observed","rationale":"FY2025 whole-recipient total expense.","sourceIds":["tcp25"]},{"name":"N","value":400000,"unit":"fewer enrollees by June 2028 in a forecast","basis":"observed","rationale":"LAO reports administration forecast for six-month renewals; not an observed loss or AB2201-specific forecast.","sourceIds":["lao-renewal"]},{"name":"r","value":0.1,"unit":"remediable fraction","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Only one tenth of scale anchor affected by narrower income/asset evidence simplification; not source-calibrated.","sourceIds":["ab2201"]},{"name":"u","value":0.5,"unit":"fraction avoiding uninsurance","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Coverage termination does not always imply sustained uninsured time; excludes alternative coverage/re-enrollment.","sourceIds":["oregon"]},{"name":"q","value":0.02,"unit":"QALY/additional insured person-year","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Transfer below Oregon's 0.05 mapped self-reported health estimate; short gaps, population and clinical access differ.","sourceIds":["oregon"]},{"name":"p","value":0.05,"unit":"incremental coalition implementation probability","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Small subjective option value after held bill and appropriation failure; no empirical success-rate calibration.","sourceIds":["ab2201-history","tcp-budget"]},{"name":"a","value":0.1,"unit":"TCP coalition attribution fraction","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Multiple advocates and state actors; TCP co-sponsor status is not a measured causal share.","sourceIds":["tcp-renewal"]},{"name":"b","value":0.25,"unit":"marginal funding additionality","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Allows large substitution given unrestricted reserves and existing public implementation resources.","sourceIds":["tcp25","dhcs-peer"]},{"name":"T","value":2,"unit":"benefit years","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Carries June2028 forecast scale through two full modeled years; timing and persistence are assumptions, not source annual estimates.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"d","value":0.03,"unit":"annual discount rate","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Benefits arrive at years 2 and 3; no lifetime or perpetual persistence.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"Q_other","value":null,"unit":"net QALYs from remaining portfolio","basis":"unknown","rationale":"Excluded from priced slice; material whole-portfolio gap.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"resource-householdMembers","value":2,"unit":"resource coefficient","basis":"judgment","sourceIds":["tcp-renewal","tcp-budget"],"rationale":"Hypothetical household coefficient; source establishes renewal paperwork mechanism and existing public budget measures, not measured causal net consumption or TCP-only policy probability."},{"name":"resource-adminSaving","value":10,"unit":"USD","basis":"judgment","sourceIds":["tcp-renewal","tcp-budget"],"rationale":"Hypothetical household coefficient; source establishes renewal paperwork mechanism and existing public budget measures, not measured causal net consumption or TCP-only policy probability."},{"name":"resource-saverShare","value":0.25,"unit":"resource coefficient","basis":"judgment","sourceIds":["tcp-renewal","tcp-budget"],"rationale":"Hypothetical household coefficient; source establishes renewal paperwork mechanism and existing public budget measures, not measured causal net consumption or TCP-only policy probability."},{"name":"resource-medicalSaving","value":0,"unit":"USD","basis":"judgment","sourceIds":["tcp-renewal","tcp-budget"],"rationale":"Hypothetical household coefficient; source establishes renewal paperwork mechanism and existing public budget measures, not measured causal net consumption or TCP-only policy probability."},{"name":"resource-netRetained","value":0.8,"unit":"resource coefficient","basis":"judgment","sourceIds":["tcp-renewal","tcp-budget"],"rationale":"Hypothetical household coefficient; source establishes renewal paperwork mechanism and existing public budget measures, not measured causal net consumption or TCP-only policy probability."},{"name":"resource-positiveShare","value":0.5,"unit":"resource coefficient","basis":"judgment","sourceIds":["tcp-renewal","tcp-budget"],"rationale":"Hypothetical household coefficient; source establishes renewal paperwork mechanism and existing public budget measures, not measured causal net consumption or TCP-only policy probability."},{"name":"resource-burden","value":2,"unit":"USD","basis":"judgment","sourceIds":["tcp-renewal","tcp-budget"],"rationale":"Hypothetical household coefficient; source establishes renewal paperwork mechanism and existing public budget measures, not measured causal net consumption or TCP-only policy probability."},{"name":"resource-before","value":20000,"unit":"USD","basis":"judgment","sourceIds":["tcp-renewal","tcp-budget"],"rationale":"Hypothetical household coefficient; source establishes renewal paperwork mechanism and existing public budget measures, not measured causal net consumption or TCP-only policy probability."}],"scenarios":[{"id":"alpha-central-diagnostic","label":"Original health-only diagnostic: Renewal-policy slice: subjective central, not full portfolio","costUSD":14929704,"allPopulationQalys":0.928868784243457,"editionQalys":0.928868784243457,"assumptions":"N=400000;r=.1;u=.5;q=.02;p=.05;a=.1;b=.25;T=2;lag=2;d=.03;other portfolio excluded."},{"id":"original-zero","label":"Original health-only diagnostic: No additional implementation or funding effect","costUSD":14929704,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"assumptions":"p=0 or b=0; no finite positive health price."},{"id":"original-poor","label":"Original health-only diagnostic: Weak remedy and attribution stress","costUSD":14929704,"allPopulationQalys":0.0008359819058191113,"editionQalys":0.0008359819058191113,"assumptions":"r=.03;u=.25;q=.005;p=.01;a=.03;b=.1;other inputs central."},{"id":"original-favorable","label":"Original health-only diagnostic: Strong implemented reform stress, not likely upper bound","costUSD":14929704,"allPopulationQalys":178.34280657474375,"editionQalys":178.34280657474375,"assumptions":"r=.3;u=.8;q=.05;p=.2;a=.2;b=.5;T=2 and timing unchanged."},{"id":"original-harm","label":"Original health-only diagnostic: Unpriced harm outweighs modeled slice","costUSD":14929704,"allPopulationQalys":-1.0711312157565431,"editionQalys":-1.0711312157565431,"assumptions":"Stress only: 2 net additional QALYs lost elsewhere; not an observed harm estimate."},{"id":"central","label":"central","costUSD":14929704,"editionQalys":0.9288687842434569,"allPopulationQalys":0.9288687842434569,"assumptions":"{\"C\":14929704,\"E\":4976568,\"N\":400000,\"r\":0.1,\"u\":0.5,\"q\":0.02,\"p\":0.05,\"a\":0.1,\"b\":0.25,\"T\":2,\"lag\":2,\"d\":0.03,\"householdMembers\":2,\"adminSaving\":10,\"saverShare\":0.25,\"medicalSaving\":0,\"netRetained\":0.8,\"positiveShare\":0.5,\"burden\":2,\"before\":20000,\"payerPeople\":0,\"payerLoss\":0,\"payerBefore\":50000,\"externalCost\":0}; conditional household/policy judgments not measured effects.","incomePathways":[{"years":2,"delayYears":2,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["tcp-renewal","tcp-budget","ab2201-history"],"counterfactual":"Existing county automation/federal compliance/coalition advocates and already funded budget measures continue. Household cohort already embeds reform/remediability, marginal implementation, TCP attribution and funding once, no clinical uninsurance discount.","people":3.125,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":20000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":3,"rationale":"Hypothetical joint household paperwork/time and actual medical cash ledger: twoenrollees/household proxy, positiveoverlap gains only, FULLimplementation/admin/time burden all. No retailcare, insurancecoveragevalue or survivor/grosssalary credit. Cohort/dollars judgments."},{"years":2,"delayYears":2,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["tcp-renewal","tcp-budget","ab2201-history"],"counterfactual":"Existing county automation/federal compliance/coalition advocates and already funded budget measures continue. Household cohort already embeds reform/remediability, marginal implementation, TCP attribution and funding once, no clinical uninsurance discount.","people":21.875,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":20000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":3,"rationale":"Hypothetical joint household paperwork/time and actual medical cash ledger: twoenrollees/household proxy, positiveoverlap gains only, FULLimplementation/admin/time burden all. No retailcare, insurancecoveragevalue or survivor/grosssalary credit. Cohort/dollars judgments."}]},{"id":"financial-null","label":"financial-null","costUSD":14929704,"editionQalys":0.9288687842434569,"allPopulationQalys":0.9288687842434569,"assumptions":"{\"C\":14929704,\"E\":4976568,\"N\":400000,\"r\":0.1,\"u\":0.5,\"q\":0.02,\"p\":0.05,\"a\":0.1,\"b\":0.25,\"T\":2,\"lag\":2,\"d\":0.03,\"householdMembers\":2,\"adminSaving\":0,\"saverShare\":0.25,\"medicalSaving\":0,\"netRetained\":0.8,\"positiveShare\":0.5,\"burden\":0,\"before\":20000,\"payerPeople\":0,\"payerLoss\":0,\"payerBefore\":50000,\"externalCost\":0}; conditional household/policy judgments not measured effects.","incomePathways":[{"years":2,"delayYears":2,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["tcp-renewal","tcp-budget","ab2201-history"],"counterfactual":"Existing county automation/federal compliance/coalition advocates and already funded budget measures continue. Household cohort already embeds reform/remediability, marginal implementation, TCP attribution and funding once, no clinical uninsurance discount.","people":3.125,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":20000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":0,"rationale":"Hypothetical joint household paperwork/time and actual medical cash ledger: twoenrollees/household proxy, positiveoverlap gains only, FULLimplementation/admin/time burden all. No retailcare, insurancecoveragevalue or survivor/grosssalary credit. Cohort/dollars judgments."},{"years":2,"delayYears":2,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["tcp-renewal","tcp-budget","ab2201-history"],"counterfactual":"Existing county automation/federal compliance/coalition advocates and already funded budget measures continue. Household cohort already embeds reform/remediability, marginal implementation, TCP attribution and funding once, no clinical uninsurance discount.","people":21.875,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":20000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":0,"rationale":"Hypothetical joint household paperwork/time and actual medical cash ledger: twoenrollees/household proxy, positiveoverlap gains only, FULLimplementation/admin/time burden all. No retailcare, insurancecoveragevalue or survivor/grosssalary credit. Cohort/dollars judgments."}]},{"id":"clinical-null-financial-only","label":"clinical-null-financial-only","costUSD":14929704,"editionQalys":0,"allPopulationQalys":0,"assumptions":"{\"C\":14929704,\"E\":4976568,\"N\":400000,\"r\":0.1,\"u\":0.5,\"q\":0.02,\"p\":0.05,\"a\":0.1,\"b\":0.25,\"T\":2,\"lag\":2,\"d\":0.03,\"householdMembers\":2,\"adminSaving\":10,\"saverShare\":0.25,\"medicalSaving\":0,\"netRetained\":0.8,\"positiveShare\":0.5,\"burden\":2,\"before\":20000,\"payerPeople\":0,\"payerLoss\":0,\"payerBefore\":50000,\"externalCost\":0}; conditional household/policy judgments not measured effects.","incomePathways":[{"years":2,"delayYears":2,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["tcp-renewal","tcp-budget","ab2201-history"],"counterfactual":"Existing county automation/federal compliance/coalition advocates and already funded budget measures continue. Household cohort already embeds reform/remediability, marginal implementation, TCP attribution and funding once, no clinical uninsurance discount.","people":3.125,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":20000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":3,"rationale":"Hypothetical joint household paperwork/time and actual medical cash ledger: twoenrollees/household proxy, positiveoverlap gains only, FULLimplementation/admin/time burden all. No retailcare, insurancecoveragevalue or survivor/grosssalary credit. Cohort/dollars judgments."},{"years":2,"delayYears":2,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["tcp-renewal","tcp-budget","ab2201-history"],"counterfactual":"Existing county automation/federal compliance/coalition advocates and already funded budget measures continue. Household cohort already embeds reform/remediability, marginal implementation, TCP attribution and funding once, no clinical uninsurance discount.","people":21.875,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":20000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":3,"rationale":"Hypothetical joint household paperwork/time and actual medical cash ledger: twoenrollees/household proxy, positiveoverlap gains only, FULLimplementation/admin/time burden all. No retailcare, insurancecoveragevalue or survivor/grosssalary credit. Cohort/dollars judgments."}]},{"id":"income-unknown","label":"income-unknown","costUSD":14929704,"editionQalys":0.9288687842434569,"allPopulationQalys":0.9288687842434569,"assumptions":"{\"C\":14929704,\"E\":4976568,\"N\":400000,\"r\":0.1,\"u\":0.5,\"q\":0.02,\"p\":0.05,\"a\":0.1,\"b\":0.25,\"T\":2,\"lag\":2,\"d\":0.03,\"householdMembers\":2,\"adminSaving\":10,\"saverShare\":0.25,\"medicalSaving\":0,\"netRetained\":0.8,\"positiveShare\":0.5,\"burden\":2,\"before\":20000,\"payerPeople\":0,\"payerLoss\":0,\"payerBefore\":50000,\"externalCost\":0}; conditional household/policy judgments not measured effects.","incomeUnknown":true},{"id":"no-capacity","label":"no-capacity","costUSD":14929704,"editionQalys":0,"allPopulationQalys":0,"assumptions":"{\"C\":14929704,\"E\":4976568,\"N\":400000,\"r\":0.1,\"u\":0.5,\"q\":0.02,\"p\":0.05,\"a\":0.1,\"b\":0,\"T\":2,\"lag\":2,\"d\":0.03,\"householdMembers\":2,\"adminSaving\":10,\"saverShare\":0.25,\"medicalSaving\":0,\"netRetained\":0.8,\"positiveShare\":0.5,\"burden\":2,\"before\":20000,\"payerPeople\":0,\"payerLoss\":0,\"payerBefore\":50000,\"externalCost\":0}; conditional household/policy judgments not measured effects.","incomePathways":[]},{"id":"no-implementation","label":"no-implementation","costUSD":14929704,"editionQalys":0,"allPopulationQalys":0,"assumptions":"{\"C\":14929704,\"E\":4976568,\"N\":400000,\"r\":0.1,\"u\":0.5,\"q\":0.02,\"p\":0,\"a\":0.1,\"b\":0.25,\"T\":2,\"lag\":2,\"d\":0.03,\"householdMembers\":2,\"adminSaving\":10,\"saverShare\":0.25,\"medicalSaving\":0,\"netRetained\":0.8,\"positiveShare\":0.5,\"burden\":2,\"before\":20000,\"payerPeople\":0,\"payerLoss\":0,\"payerBefore\":50000,\"externalCost\":0}; conditional household/policy judgments not measured effects.","incomePathways":[]},{"id":"adverse-burdens","label":"adverse-burdens","costUSD":14929704,"editionQalys":0.9288687842434569,"allPopulationQalys":0.9288687842434569,"assumptions":"{\"C\":14929704,\"E\":4976568,\"N\":400000,\"r\":0.1,\"u\":0.5,\"q\":0.02,\"p\":0.05,\"a\":0.1,\"b\":0.25,\"T\":2,\"lag\":2,\"d\":0.03,\"householdMembers\":2,\"adminSaving\":0,\"saverShare\":0.25,\"medicalSaving\":0,\"netRetained\":0.8,\"positiveShare\":0.5,\"burden\":20,\"before\":20000,\"payerPeople\":0,\"payerLoss\":0,\"payerBefore\":50000,\"externalCost\":0}; conditional household/policy judgments not measured effects.","incomePathways":[{"years":2,"delayYears":2,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["tcp-renewal","tcp-budget","ab2201-history"],"counterfactual":"Existing county automation/federal compliance/coalition advocates and already funded budget measures continue. Household cohort already embeds reform/remediability, marginal implementation, TCP attribution and funding once, no clinical uninsurance discount.","people":3.125,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":20000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-20,"rationale":"Hypothetical joint household paperwork/time and actual medical cash ledger: twoenrollees/household proxy, positiveoverlap gains only, FULLimplementation/admin/time burden all. No retailcare, insurancecoveragevalue or survivor/grosssalary credit. Cohort/dollars judgments."},{"years":2,"delayYears":2,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["tcp-renewal","tcp-budget","ab2201-history"],"counterfactual":"Existing county automation/federal compliance/coalition advocates and already funded budget measures continue. Household cohort already embeds reform/remediability, marginal implementation, TCP attribution and funding once, no clinical uninsurance discount.","people":21.875,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":20000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-20,"rationale":"Hypothetical joint household paperwork/time and actual medical cash ledger: twoenrollees/household proxy, positiveoverlap gains only, FULLimplementation/admin/time burden all. No retailcare, insurancecoveragevalue or survivor/grosssalary credit. Cohort/dollars judgments."}]},{"id":"clinical-null-negative","label":"clinical-null-negative","costUSD":14929704,"editionQalys":0,"allPopulationQalys":0,"assumptions":"{\"C\":14929704,\"E\":4976568,\"N\":400000,\"r\":0.1,\"u\":0.5,\"q\":0.02,\"p\":0.05,\"a\":0.1,\"b\":0.25,\"T\":2,\"lag\":2,\"d\":0.03,\"householdMembers\":2,\"adminSaving\":0,\"saverShare\":0.25,\"medicalSaving\":0,\"netRetained\":0.8,\"positiveShare\":0.5,\"burden\":20,\"before\":20000,\"payerPeople\":0,\"payerLoss\":0,\"payerBefore\":50000,\"externalCost\":0}; conditional household/policy judgments not measured effects.","incomePathways":[{"years":2,"delayYears":2,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["tcp-renewal","tcp-budget","ab2201-history"],"counterfactual":"Existing county automation/federal compliance/coalition advocates and already funded budget measures continue. Household cohort already embeds reform/remediability, marginal implementation, TCP attribution and funding once, no clinical uninsurance discount.","people":3.125,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":20000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-20,"rationale":"Hypothetical joint household paperwork/time and actual medical cash ledger: twoenrollees/household proxy, positiveoverlap gains only, FULLimplementation/admin/time burden all. No retailcare, insurancecoveragevalue or survivor/grosssalary credit. Cohort/dollars judgments."},{"years":2,"delayYears":2,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["tcp-renewal","tcp-budget","ab2201-history"],"counterfactual":"Existing county automation/federal compliance/coalition advocates and already funded budget measures continue. Household cohort already embeds reform/remediability, marginal implementation, TCP attribution and funding once, no clinical uninsurance discount.","people":21.875,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":20000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-20,"rationale":"Hypothetical joint household paperwork/time and actual medical cash ledger: twoenrollees/household proxy, positiveoverlap gains only, FULLimplementation/admin/time burden all. No retailcare, insurancecoveragevalue or survivor/grosssalary credit. Cohort/dollars judgments."}]},{"id":"conditional-medical-spend","label":"conditional-medical-spend","costUSD":14929704,"editionQalys":0.9288687842434569,"allPopulationQalys":0.9288687842434569,"assumptions":"{\"C\":14929704,\"E\":4976568,\"N\":400000,\"r\":0.1,\"u\":0.5,\"q\":0.02,\"p\":0.05,\"a\":0.1,\"b\":0.25,\"T\":2,\"lag\":2,\"d\":0.03,\"householdMembers\":2,\"adminSaving\":10,\"saverShare\":0.25,\"medicalSaving\":100,\"netRetained\":0.8,\"positiveShare\":0.5,\"burden\":2,\"before\":20000,\"payerPeople\":0,\"payerLoss\":0,\"payerBefore\":50000,\"externalCost\":0}; conditional household/policy judgments not measured effects.","incomePathways":[{"years":2,"delayYears":2,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["tcp-renewal","tcp-budget","ab2201-history"],"counterfactual":"Existing county automation/federal compliance/coalition advocates and already funded budget measures continue. Household cohort already embeds reform/remediability, marginal implementation, TCP attribution and funding once, no clinical uninsurance discount.","people":3.125,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":20000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":43,"rationale":"Hypothetical joint household paperwork/time and actual medical cash ledger: twoenrollees/household proxy, positiveoverlap gains only, FULLimplementation/admin/time burden all. No retailcare, insurancecoveragevalue or survivor/grosssalary credit. Cohort/dollars judgments."},{"years":2,"delayYears":2,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["tcp-renewal","tcp-budget","ab2201-history"],"counterfactual":"Existing county automation/federal compliance/coalition advocates and already funded budget measures continue. Household cohort already embeds reform/remediability, marginal implementation, TCP attribution and funding once, no clinical uninsurance discount.","people":21.875,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":20000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":3,"rationale":"Hypothetical joint household paperwork/time and actual medical cash ledger: twoenrollees/household proxy, positiveoverlap gains only, FULLimplementation/admin/time burden all. No retailcare, insurancecoveragevalue or survivor/grosssalary credit. Cohort/dollars judgments."}]},{"id":"no-avoided-uninsurance","label":"no-avoided-uninsurance","costUSD":14929704,"editionQalys":0,"allPopulationQalys":0,"assumptions":"{\"C\":14929704,\"E\":4976568,\"N\":400000,\"r\":0.1,\"u\":0,\"q\":0.02,\"p\":0.05,\"a\":0.1,\"b\":0.25,\"T\":2,\"lag\":2,\"d\":0.03,\"householdMembers\":2,\"adminSaving\":10,\"saverShare\":0.25,\"medicalSaving\":0,\"netRetained\":0.8,\"positiveShare\":0.5,\"burden\":2,\"before\":20000,\"payerPeople\":0,\"payerLoss\":0,\"payerBefore\":50000,\"externalCost\":0}; conditional household/policy judgments not measured effects.","incomePathways":[{"years":2,"delayYears":2,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["tcp-renewal","tcp-budget","ab2201-history"],"counterfactual":"Existing county automation/federal compliance/coalition advocates and already funded budget measures continue. Household cohort already embeds reform/remediability, marginal implementation, TCP attribution and funding once, no clinical uninsurance discount.","people":25,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":20000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":3,"rationale":"Hypothetical joint household paperwork/time and actual medical cash ledger: twoenrollees/household proxy, positiveoverlap gains only, FULLimplementation/admin/time burden all. No retailcare, insurancecoveragevalue or survivor/grosssalary credit. Cohort/dollars judgments."}]},{"id":"disjoint-public-consumption","label":"disjoint-public-consumption","costUSD":14929704,"editionQalys":0.9288687842434569,"allPopulationQalys":0.9288687842434569,"assumptions":"{\"C\":14929704,\"E\":4976568,\"N\":400000,\"r\":0.1,\"u\":0.5,\"q\":0.02,\"p\":0.05,\"a\":0.1,\"b\":0.25,\"T\":2,\"lag\":2,\"d\":0.03,\"householdMembers\":2,\"adminSaving\":10,\"saverShare\":0.25,\"medicalSaving\":0,\"netRetained\":0.8,\"positiveShare\":0.5,\"burden\":2,\"before\":20000,\"payerPeople\":1,\"payerLoss\":100,\"payerBefore\":50000,\"externalCost\":0}; conditional household/policy judgments not measured effects.","incomePathways":[{"years":2,"delayYears":2,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["tcp-renewal","tcp-budget","ab2201-history"],"counterfactual":"Existing county automation/federal compliance/coalition advocates and already funded budget measures continue. Household cohort already embeds reform/remediability, marginal implementation, TCP attribution and funding once, no clinical uninsurance discount.","people":3.125,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":20000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":3,"rationale":"Hypothetical joint household paperwork/time and actual medical cash ledger: twoenrollees/household proxy, positiveoverlap gains only, FULLimplementation/admin/time burden all. No retailcare, insurancecoveragevalue or survivor/grosssalary credit. Cohort/dollars judgments."},{"years":2,"delayYears":2,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["tcp-renewal","tcp-budget","ab2201-history"],"counterfactual":"Existing county automation/federal compliance/coalition advocates and already funded budget measures continue. Household cohort already embeds reform/remediability, marginal implementation, TCP attribution and funding once, no clinical uninsurance discount.","people":21.875,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":20000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":3,"rationale":"Hypothetical joint household paperwork/time and actual medical cash ledger: twoenrollees/household proxy, positiveoverlap gains only, FULLimplementation/admin/time burden all. No retailcare, insurancecoveragevalue or survivor/grosssalary credit. Cohort/dollars judgments."},{"years":2,"delayYears":2,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["tcp-renewal","tcp-budget","ab2201-history"],"counterfactual":"Existing county automation/federal compliance/coalition advocates and already funded budget measures continue. Household cohort already embeds reform/remediability, marginal implementation, TCP attribution and funding once, no clinical uninsurance discount.","people":1,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":50000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":-100,"rationale":"Hypothetical disjoint public payer consumption loss; alternative to same transfer in denominator."}]},{"id":"additional-real-resource-cost","label":"additional-real-resource-cost","costUSD":15929704,"editionQalys":0.9288687842434569,"allPopulationQalys":0.9288687842434569,"assumptions":"{\"C\":14929704,\"E\":4976568,\"N\":400000,\"r\":0.1,\"u\":0.5,\"q\":0.02,\"p\":0.05,\"a\":0.1,\"b\":0.25,\"T\":2,\"lag\":2,\"d\":0.03,\"householdMembers\":2,\"adminSaving\":10,\"saverShare\":0.25,\"medicalSaving\":0,\"netRetained\":0.8,\"positiveShare\":0.5,\"burden\":2,\"before\":20000,\"payerPeople\":0,\"payerLoss\":0,\"payerBefore\":50000,\"externalCost\":1000000}; conditional household/policy judgments not measured effects.","incomePathways":[{"years":2,"delayYears":2,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["tcp-renewal","tcp-budget","ab2201-history"],"counterfactual":"Existing county automation/federal compliance/coalition advocates and already funded budget measures continue. Household cohort already embeds reform/remediability, marginal implementation, TCP attribution and funding once, no clinical uninsurance discount.","people":3.125,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":20000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":3,"rationale":"Hypothetical joint household paperwork/time and actual medical cash ledger: twoenrollees/household proxy, positiveoverlap gains only, FULLimplementation/admin/time burden all. No retailcare, insurancecoveragevalue or survivor/grosssalary credit. Cohort/dollars judgments."},{"years":2,"delayYears":2,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["tcp-renewal","tcp-budget","ab2201-history"],"counterfactual":"Existing county automation/federal compliance/coalition advocates and already funded budget measures continue. Household cohort already embeds reform/remediability, marginal implementation, TCP attribution and funding once, no clinical uninsurance discount.","people":21.875,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":20000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":3,"rationale":"Hypothetical joint household paperwork/time and actual medical cash ledger: twoenrollees/household proxy, positiveoverlap gains only, FULLimplementation/admin/time burden all. No retailcare, insurancecoveragevalue or survivor/grosssalary credit. Cohort/dollars judgments."}]},{"id":"gift-100000-proportional","label":"gift-100000-proportional","costUSD":100000,"editionQalys":0.006221615540692949,"allPopulationQalys":0.006221615540692949,"assumptions":"{\"C\":100000,\"E\":4976568,\"N\":400000,\"r\":0.1,\"u\":0.5,\"q\":0.02,\"p\":0.05,\"a\":0.1,\"b\":0.25,\"T\":2,\"lag\":2,\"d\":0.03,\"householdMembers\":2,\"adminSaving\":10,\"saverShare\":0.25,\"medicalSaving\":0,\"netRetained\":0.8,\"positiveShare\":0.5,\"burden\":2,\"before\":20000,\"payerPeople\":0,\"payerLoss\":0,\"payerBefore\":50000,\"externalCost\":0}; conditional household/policy judgments not measured effects.","incomePathways":[{"years":2,"delayYears":2,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["tcp-renewal","tcp-budget","ab2201-history"],"counterfactual":"Existing county automation/federal compliance/coalition advocates and already funded budget measures continue. Household cohort already embeds reform/remediability, marginal implementation, TCP attribution and funding once, no clinical uninsurance discount.","people":0.020931426369873107,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":20000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":3,"rationale":"Hypothetical joint household paperwork/time and actual medical cash ledger: twoenrollees/household proxy, positiveoverlap gains only, FULLimplementation/admin/time burden all. No retailcare, insurancecoveragevalue or survivor/grosssalary credit. Cohort/dollars judgments."},{"years":2,"delayYears":2,"discountRate":0.03,"causalShare":1,"editionShare":1,"independentShare":1,"sourceIds":["tcp-renewal","tcp-budget","ab2201-history"],"counterfactual":"Existing county automation/federal compliance/coalition advocates and already funded budget measures continue. Household cohort already embeds reform/remediability, marginal implementation, TCP attribution and funding once, no clinical uninsurance discount.","people":0.14651998458911175,"annualIncomeBeforeUSD":20000,"annualIncomeGainUSD":3,"rationale":"Hypothetical joint household paperwork/time and actual medical cash ledger: twoenrollees/household proxy, positiveoverlap gains only, FULLimplementation/admin/time burden all. No retailcare, insurancecoveragevalue or survivor/grosssalary credit. Cohort/dollars judgments."}]}],"sensitivity":["Price is inversely proportional to each r,u,q,p,a,b; tenfold error in a prior yields tenfold price error.","At q=.02 the 3-year cost basis requires 7464.852 additional discounted insured person-years for $1m/10 QALYs, or 74648.52 for $100k/10; central has only46.4434.","Do not add this renewal branch to NHeLP or other co-sponsor estimates without a joint overlap model; administrative loss groups may overlap federal-rule forecasts.","Removing the clinical transfer or funding additionality collapses the finite result. Full portfolio rank remains unidentified.","Signed resources preserve separate paperwork versus uninsurance cohorts, full negative costs, clinical-null effects and unknown workforce portfolio."],"missingInputs":["Policy-specific eligible caseload and prevented uninsured duration under a feasible funded successor reform.","Evidence that an ordinary gift changes TCP capacity and policy outcomes beyond existing grants/reserves.","Causal coalition and TCP contribution; empirical calibration of revival/appropriation probability.","Controlled clinical and harms results for peer support, overlap with existing care and unpriced portfolio benefits.","Unique policy-affected households, enrollees per household, actual paperwork opportunity savings, medical out-of-pocket change after taxes/benefits and new access costs; joint distribution/duration, disjoint public financing, workforce/childcare retained net earnings."]},"sources":[{"id":"tcp25","title":"2025 Form 990, Parts I, III, VIII–X and XII","publisher":"The Children's Partnership / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/464106389/202631969349302653/full","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"tcp24","title":"2024 Form 990, including prior-year comparative expenses","publisher":"The Children's Partnership / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/464106389/202513179349310611/full","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"tcp25d","title":"2025 Form 990 Schedule D: agency liability and audited reconciliation","publisher":"The Children's Partnership / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202631969349302653/IRS990ScheduleD","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"tcp-budget","title":"State builds California budget for child health equity","publisher":"The Children's Partnership","url":"https://childrenspartnership.org/news/state-builds-california-budget-for-child-health-equity/","published":"2026-07-06","retrieved":"2026-10-07"},{"id":"tcp-renewal","title":"Medi-Cal Renewal Relief Act (AB 2201) Brings Back Proven Public Health Strategy","publisher":"The Children's Partnership","url":"https://childrenspartnership.org/news/medi-cal-renewal-relief-act-ab-2201-brings-back-proven-public-health-strategy/","published":"2026-04-27","retrieved":"2026-10-07"},{"id":"ab2201","title":"AB2201 amended text","publisher":"California Legislature","url":"https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=202520260AB2201","published":"2026-07-02","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"ab2201-history","title":"AB2201 official bill history","publisher":"California Legislature","url":"https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billHistoryClient.xhtml?bill_id=202520260AB2201","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"lao-renewal","title":"The 2026-27 Budget: Medi-Cal Analysis","publisher":"Legislative Analyst's Office","url":"https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5146","published":"2026-03-02","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"tcp-peer","title":"Peer-to-Peer Youth Mental Health: Year 1 Findings, November 2025","publisher":"The Children's Partnership / Dr. Dee Strategies and KDSM Consulting","url":"https://childrenspartnership.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Peer_to_Peer_Y1_Impact_Report_Long_FINAL.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"dhcs-peer","title":"California launches pilot program in high schools to support youth mental health","publisher":"California Department of Health Care Services","url":"https://www.dhcs.ca.gov/newsroom-office-of-communications/california-launches-pilot-program-in-high-schools-to-support-youth-mental-health/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"peer-rct","title":"Impact of the Sources of Strength Peer Leader Program on Suicide Attempt Rates in 40 High Schools: A Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial","publisher":"Wyman and colleagues / School Mental Health","url":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12310-025-09802-w","published":"2025-09-05","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"oregon","title":"The Value of Medicaid: Interpreting Results from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment","publisher":"Finkelstein, Hendren and Luttmer / Journal of Political Economy","url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8081392/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"tcp-donate","title":"Official ordinary donation page","publisher":"The Children's Partnership","url":"https://childrenspartnership.org/donate","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"tcp23","title":"FY2023 original IRS990","publisher":"The Children's Partnership / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202423139349302687/IRS990","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"tcp23d","title":"FY2023 original IRS990ScheduleD","publisher":"The Children's Partnership / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202423139349302687/IRS990ScheduleD","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"tcp24d","title":"FY2024 original IRS990ScheduleD","publisher":"The Children's Partnership / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202513179349310611/IRS990ScheduleD","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"}]}