{"edition":"california","organization":"Champions for Health","organizationId":"org:champions-for-health","boundaryVersion":"US-CA-state-v1","updated":"2026-09-14","model":{"version":"ca-champions-alpha-v2-conditional","costScope":"Full recipient annual recognized economic resources, including donated services and gross event costs. Only specialty-care health is priced; other portfolio pathways remain unpriced. Resource normalization is not a funding request.","geographicAttribution":"g_CA=1 for qualifying San Diego County resident specialty-care pathways. This is an independently reviewed California denominator, not a population allocation or imported LA share. Low scenario permits 5% nonresident/relocation leakage.","formula":"N=C*f/k; incremental effective treatment equivalents=N*a*b; Q_CA=N*a*b*u*T*g_CA/(1+d). Central T=1 year; u=0.05 utility improvement, so u*T=0.05 undiscounted QALY. Price10=10*C/Q_CA. Q_portfolio_CA=Q_specialty_CA+Q_other_CA with Q_other_CA unknown. No completion factor or response multiplier is applied twice.","counterfactual":"Existing contract-funded delivery and state vaccine supply continue; consider vaccinations at pharmacies/clinics, public coverage, other charity care, conservative treatment and later care. A gift must change uptake or treatment beyond this baseline.","attribution":"a discounts eventual alternative or public care; b separately discounts whether an unrestricted gift changes delivery rather than contracts, reserves or capacity. k includes coordination and partner resources; known donated resources are already in C, not added again.","uncertainty":"All numerical clinical and donor-response parameters are judgments. Broad joint scenarios are not confidence bounds. The narrow health component cannot establish a complete portfolio ranking. The utility prior represents expected net health area over the stated finite horizon, including treatment burden, within-horizon fade and competing mortality; it is not an endpoint score held indefinitely. No survival extension is credited.","nativeOutcomes":"Central resource normalization implies 118.9359 completed treatment pathways before counterfactual adjustment and 14.8669875 incremental treatment equivalents, yielding 0.7216984223300972 California QALYs over one year. These are modeled equivalents, not observed patients.","inputs":[{"name":"C","value":2378718,"unit":"USD annual gross recognized recipient resources","basis":"observed","rationale":"2025 return 1,963,721 + events 99,031 + donated services 315,966.","sourceIds":["original-2025-IRS990","original-2025-IRS990ScheduleD"]},{"name":"f","value":0.25,"unit":"fraction of recipient resources","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Near but below the 556,597/1,963,721 reported Project Access share; allocation of incremental resources is not observed.","sourceIds":["original-2025-IRS990"]},{"name":"k","value":5000,"unit":"USD full resources per completed treatment pathway","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Judgment including donated clinical opportunity costs, not a quoted fee or observed program average.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"a","value":0.5,"unit":"net additional treatment-benefit fraction","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Alternative charity/public/later treatment discounted separately from funding response.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"b","value":0.25,"unit":"funding-response fraction","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Judgment on capacity, unrestricted allocation response and contract replacement; applied once.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"u","value":0.05,"unit":"utility improvement for one year","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Subjective net clinical benefit after treatment burdens; no empirical organization effect claimed.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"T","value":1,"unit":"year","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Finite effect; no benefit beyond one year.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"g_CA","value":1,"unit":"California share of priced health","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Current San Diego County resident eligibility; not a whole-portfolio share.","sourceIds":["pasd"]},{"name":"d","value":0.03,"unit":"annual discount rate","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Conservative end-of-year timing.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"Q_other_CA","value":null,"unit":"California QALYs","basis":"unknown","rationale":"Vaccination and physician-support effects not included in the central health price.","sourceIds":[]}],"scenarios":[{"id":"central","label":"Conditional specialty-care central","costUSD":2378718,"allPopulationQalys":0.7216984223300972,"editionQalys":0.7216984223300972,"assumptions":"f=.25; k=5000; a=.5; b=.25; u=.05; T=1; g_CA=1; d=.03."},{"id":"low","label":"Low benefit / weak funding response","costUSD":2378718,"allPopulationQalys":0.0007698116504854371,"editionQalys":0.0007313210679611652,"assumptions":"f=.1; k=15000; a=.1; b=.05; u=.01; T=1; g_CA=.95; d=.03."},{"id":"high","label":"Favorable treatment and capacity","costUSD":2378718,"allPopulationQalys":27.713219417475727,"editionQalys":27.713219417475727,"assumptions":"f=.4; k=2000; a=.8; b=.5; u=.15; T=1; g_CA=1; d=.03."},{"id":"zero","label":"No additional health","costUSD":2378718,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"assumptions":"Complete funding substitution or no clinical improvement."},{"id":"harm","label":"Adverse stress test","costUSD":2378718,"allPopulationQalys":-1,"editionQalys":-1,"assumptions":"One net California QALY lost through adverse treatment or displaced superior services; subjective stress test, not forecast."},{"id":"portfolio","label":"Complete portfolio remains unpriced","costUSD":2378718,"allPopulationQalys":null,"editionQalys":null,"assumptions":"Do not equate the priced specialty-care component with all portfolio health."}],"sensitivity":["Doubling full resources per completed pathway k doubles the component price, holding all other inputs fixed.","At fixed model parameters, proportional annual cost scaling changes output but not price. At the central normalization, reaching $1 million per ten QALYs requires 23.78718 California QALYs versus 0.7216984223300972 modeled; no such yield is demonstrated."],"missingInputs":["Completed unique treatment pathways, indication mix and actual full partner resource cost.","Prospective utility and complication data with alternative-care timing.","Current unrestricted funding response and specialty-slot capacity.","Incremental vaccination and physician-support health; full portfolio remains unpriced."]},"sources":[{"id":"home","title":"Current programs and undated annual impact","publisher":"Champions for Health","url":"https://championsforhealth.org/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"pasd","title":"Project Access San Diego","publisher":"Champions for Health","url":"https://championsforhealth.org/programs/project-access-sd/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"flu","title":"Free immunization program","publisher":"Champions for Health","url":"https://championsforhealth.org/programs/free-immunization-program/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"annual24","title":"FY 2023–24 annual report in June 2025 San Diego Physician","publisher":"Champions for Health / San Diego County Medical Society","url":"https://championsforhealth.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/SD_Physician_0625_v3.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"finance","title":"Financial Highlights and report directory","publisher":"Champions for Health","url":"https://championsforhealth.org/impact-financial/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"give","title":"Ways to Give and recipient identity","publisher":"Champions for Health","url":"https://championsforhealth.org/ways-to-give/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"flu-rct","title":"Efficacy of influenza vaccination in elderly individuals","publisher":"Govaert et al. / JAMA","url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/7966893/","published":"1994-12-07","retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"irs-index","title":"IRS-derived latest expense extracts","publisher":"ProPublica Nonprofit Explorer / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/952568714","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-13"},{"id":"original-2023-IRS990","title":"FY 2023 original Form 990","publisher":"San Diego County Medical Society Foundation / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202402059349301270/IRS990","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"original-2023-IRS990ScheduleD","title":"FY 2023 original Schedule D expense reconciliation","publisher":"San Diego County Medical Society Foundation / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202402059349301270/IRS990ScheduleD","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"original-2024-IRS990","title":"FY 2024 original Form 990","publisher":"San Diego County Medical Society Foundation / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202541639349301809/IRS990","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"original-2024-IRS990ScheduleD","title":"FY 2024 original Schedule D expense reconciliation","publisher":"San Diego County Medical Society Foundation / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202541639349301809/IRS990ScheduleD","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"original-2025-IRS990","title":"FY 2025 original Form 990","publisher":"San Diego County Medical Society Foundation / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202640609349300109/IRS990","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"original-2025-IRS990ScheduleD","title":"FY 2025 original Schedule D expense reconciliation","publisher":"San Diego County Medical Society Foundation / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202640609349300109/IRS990ScheduleD","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"}]}