{"edition":"california","organization":"California YIMBY Education Fund","organizationId":"ein:85-1438188","boundaryVersion":"US-CA-state-v1","updated":"2026-09-14","model":{"version":"ca-yimby-education-net-homes-v2","costScope":"Three years of whole-recipient FY2024 accrual cost, including national MAP and support functions. Partial California housing-health estimate. Private construction, public infrastructure and unrecognized shared/volunteer resources not in central donor cost; sensitivity added.","geographicAttribution":"N explicitly counts net additional occupied California homes, not all national MAP output. u is total California resident health per net home-year and includes occupancy/displacement within its subjective value; no population or household multiplier. The home-year utility is an expected net health area across changing occupants and already includes survival, occupancy turnover and benefit fade by judgment; it is not a fixed utility promised to every initial resident for ten years.","formula":"C=3*E; U=N*p*a*b; A=sum_{t=3}^{12}(1+d)^(-t); Q_CA=U*A*u. P10=10*C/Q_CA. Only ten finite home-years; N net of replacement/displaced construction. Resource stress C'=C+U*500000. Other health remains unknown.","counterfactual":"SB79 is operative, HCD and local governments have statutory duties, existing finance/building pipelines and other advocates continue. Credit only additional completed occupied homes beyond these and net of construction elsewhere, not all newly legal capacity.","attribution":"p incremental coalition implementation, a c3 Education Fund contribution distinct from c4/shared staff, b gift funding response; each once. Conditional N is before those factors, not a donor-attributable forecast.","uncertainty":"N, policy probabilities and health conversion are uncalibrated judgments. Large price range does not validate any particular yield. Financial relief and mobility trials do not establish health per market-rate home. Whole portfolio remains unpriced.","nativeOutcomes":"Central 2.5 net additional occupied home-equivalents, 20.101335745065107 discounted California home-years, 0.20101335745065108 QALYs. Hypothetical outputs, not reported completions.","inputs":[{"name":"E","value":3047162,"unit":"USD/year recipient accrual expense","basis":"observed","rationale":"Original2024 return; no netted event/COGS costs.","sourceIds":["cay24"]},{"name":"N","value":1000,"unit":"conditional net additional occupied California homes","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Judgment of implementation scale, not existing permits or empirical pipeline.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"p","value":0.1,"unit":"incremental coalition implementation probability","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Beyond existing law/public duties over3-year support window.","sourceIds":["hcd-sb79"]},{"name":"a","value":0.1,"unit":"Education Fund c3 contribution","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Distinct from c4 and other partners; not equal-brand attribution.","sourceIds":["cay24r","cay-give"]},{"name":"b","value":0.25,"unit":"ordinary-funding response","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Reserve, substitution and capacity judgment.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"u","value":0.01,"unit":"QALY/net occupied home-year","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Judgment across all affected residents; no extra occupancy multiplier, no rent-to-health conversion.","sourceIds":["mto","income-health"]},{"name":"d","value":0.03,"unit":"annual discount rate","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Ten benefit years, years3–12 only.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"A","value":8.040534298026042,"unit":"discounted home-years/home","basis":"judgment","rationale":"Arithmetic finite horizon sum years3–12.","sourceIds":[]},{"name":"Q_other_CA","value":null,"unit":"California QALYs","basis":"unknown","rationale":"Other policy, transport and national effects not priced.","sourceIds":[]}],"scenarios":[{"id":"central","label":"Conditional California net-home health","costUSD":9141486,"allPopulationQalys":0.20101335745065108,"editionQalys":0.20101335745065108,"assumptions":"N=1000;p=.1;a=.1;b=.25;u=.01;d=.03;years3–12."},{"id":"low","label":"Weak implementation and health","costUSD":9141486,"allPopulationQalys":0.000048243205788156256,"editionQalys":0.000048243205788156256,"assumptions":"N=100;p=.02;a=.03;b=.1;u=.001;timing central."},{"id":"high","label":"Favorable finite housing influence","costUSD":9141486,"allPopulationQalys":60.304007235195314,"editionQalys":60.304007235195314,"assumptions":"N=10000;p=.3;a=.25;b=.5;u=.02;timing central."},{"id":"zero","label":"No added net homes or health","costUSD":9141486,"allPopulationQalys":0,"editionQalys":0,"assumptions":"No net additional construction or health effect."},{"id":"adverse","label":"Net adverse stress","costUSD":9141486,"allPopulationQalys":-1,"editionQalys":-1,"assumptions":"One California QALY lost via displacement, harmful location or opportunity costs; judgment."},{"id":"portfolio","label":"Complete portfolio unknown","costUSD":9141486,"allPopulationQalys":null,"editionQalys":null,"assumptions":"Other effects unpriced."},{"id":"construction-resources","label":"Add attributable construction resource stress","costUSD":10391486,"allPopulationQalys":0.20101335745065108,"editionQalys":0.20101335745065108,"assumptions":"2.5 net home-equivalents*$500000; same health, not a market quote."}],"sensitivity":["Central $454770076.7718504/10 California QALYs. $500000 per net home resource stress adds $1250000.","If new supply mostly reallocates already adequately housed residents without health improvement, u can be zero.","Unit construction/resource cost is not a net social cost; benefits, capital residual value and opportunity costs require separate accounting.","No synthetic historical mean across cash/accrual years."],"missingInputs":["c3-specific gift-sensitive implementation plan and net completion yield.","Coalition/c3 attribution versus public baseline and c4 resources.","California occupant outcomes, counterfactual housing and net crowding/stability effects.","Full construction/infrastructure resource costs, unrecognized shared resources and omitted portfolio effects."]},"sources":[{"id":"cay24","title":"2024 Form 990","publisher":"California YIMBY Education Fund / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/851438188/202523219349314572/full","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"cay23","title":"2023 Form 990","publisher":"California YIMBY Education Fund / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/851438188/202403189349309890/full","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"cay22","title":"2022 Form 990","publisher":"California YIMBY Education Fund / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/851438188/202410339349301631/full","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"cay24r","title":"2024 Form 990 Schedule R: related organization and shared employees","publisher":"California YIMBY Education Fund / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202523219349314572/IRS990ScheduleR","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"cay24d","title":"2024 Form 990 Schedule D: related-party liability","publisher":"California YIMBY Education Fund / IRS","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/full_text/202523219349314572/IRS990ScheduleD","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"cay-give","title":"Ways to Give: distinct c3, c4 and PAC recipients","publisher":"California YIMBY","url":"https://cayimby.org/waystogive/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"map-about","title":"About the Metropolitan Abundance Project","publisher":"Metropolitan Abundance Project","url":"https://www.metroabundance.org/about-us/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"map-give","title":"MAP donation page identifies Education Fund fiscal recipient","publisher":"Metropolitan Abundance Project","url":"https://www.metroabundance.org/donate/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"cay-reports","title":"Research reports from the Education Fund","publisher":"California YIMBY Education Fund","url":"https://cayimby.org/reports/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"adu24","title":"California ADU Reform: A Retrospective","publisher":"California YIMBY Education Fund / Nolan Gray","url":"https://cayimby.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/CAY-ADU_Report-2024-v4.pdf","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"fees24","title":"The Impact of Fees: Rethinking Local Revenues for More Multifamily Housing","publisher":"California YIMBY Education Fund","url":"https://cayimby.org/reports/the-impact-of-fees/","published":"2024-06-13","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"hcd-sb79","title":"SB79 Transit-Oriented Development, updated August19,2026","publisher":"California Department of Housing and Community Development","url":"https://www.hcd.ca.gov/planning-and-research/sb79-tod","published":"2026-08-19","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"sb9-outcomes","title":"California's HOME Act Turns One: Data and Insights from the First Year of Senate Bill9","publisher":"Terner Center / David Garcia and Muhammad Alameldin","url":"https://ternercenter.berkeley.edu/research-and-policy/sb-9-turns-one-applications/","published":"2023-01-18","retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"supply","title":"Supply Shock Versus Demand Shock: The Local Effects of New Housing in Low-Income Areas","publisher":"Asquith, Mast and Reed / Upjohn Institute","url":"https://research.upjohn.org/up_workingpapers/316/","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"mto","title":"Long-Term Neighborhood Effects on Low-Income Families: Evidence from Moving to Opportunity","publisher":"Ludwig and colleagues / NBER","url":"https://www.nber.org/papers/w18772","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"},{"id":"income-health","title":"Does Income Affect Health? Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial of a Guaranteed Income, revised August2026","publisher":"Miller and colleagues / NBER","url":"https://www.nber.org/papers/w32711","published":null,"retrieved":"2026-09-14"}]}