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Fractions are prospective allocation priors, not an audited allocation or restricted offer.","observed_facts":{"fiscal_year_end":"June 30, 2025","total_revenue_usd":76239029,"government_fees_usd":70600527,"expenses_usd":71468116,"contributions_usd":1193918,"audit_url":"https://felton.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/2025_Audited-Financial-Statements.pdf","audit_location":"Statement of Activities, printed p5 / PDF p7; unmodified opinion dated Dec9,2025","ep_program_url":"https://felton.org/early-psychosis/san-francisco/","crisis_program_url":"https://www.sfsuicide.org/","identity_url":"https://felton.org/about-us/make-a-difference/donate-now/"},"numerical_evidence_boundary":"No prospective causal input is locally measured. External randomized CSC evidence supports quality-of-life improvement versus usual care, but QLS is not a preference utility. The central 0.04 utility difference and 50% local transfer are independent analyst judgments, not an extraction from the trial. Hotline ASIST randomization supports proximal distress changes, not mortality. The crisis death risk and response effects are explicit unvalidated priors.","public_baseline":"Existing county/state/federal contracts, Medi-Cal clinical care, current Felton reMIND and 988 services and alternative crisis/emergency responses already exist. Additionality measures financial replacement; ep_transfer measures upgrade advantage over actual local usual care. crisis_residual_gap measures otherwise uncovered effective response, separate from efficacy when reached. No generic extra attribution haircut.","unit_costs":"Early cost $20,000 is a constructed two-year incremental specialist upgrade budget: 160 direct team hours at $100 plus $4,000 clinical delivery supports. Existing ordinary care is external $12,000 gross allowance per offered course. Crisis cost $150 is three hours at $50 per unique selected high-risk person including repeated contacts, screening failures, supervision and follow-up. Volunteer time/partner response adds $100 per offered person. Institutional costs are within the unmodeled remainder, not added again. No current staffing quote.","health_timing":"Early psychosis utility gain lasts at most two years from start; ep_duration tests earlier usual-care catch-up, no post-course tail. Crisis lowers suicide hazard only during 30 days. Initial cause-specific suicide hazard is -ln(1-p)/window; p is net suicide risk in absence of competing death, not an all-cause cumulative incidence. Later arms share suicide hazard0.01 and other-death hazard0.01. Integrate survival difference once for10 years. Both start0.25 years after gift, 3% annual discount. No full lifetime per call.","deduplication":"Crisis modeled cohort excludes people in the modeled early-psychosis cohort, and counts each unique person once including repeat calls within the episode. No repeated lifetime credits. The crisis cost per eligible unique person must include unsuccessful and noneligible intake overhead. Post-overdose outreach and other portfolio benefits remain unquantified, not silently claimed.","geography":"All modeled health is US. Pathway-specific SF/Bay residence priors are nested: early30/80%, crisis80/90%, independent harm50/85%. These are residence, not clinic-address, shares. Monterey is outside the nine-county Bay. Do not add geography ledgers.","resources":"Gross associated operating resources: full gift plus outside resources for every offered package, including financially replaced packages. Not net societal cost; counterfactual care costs, savings, future medical consumption and family time not comprehensively estimated. 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