{"modelVersion":"ceres-whole-org-v2","interpretation":"Conditional whole-gift prior model; exploratory mortality, not a verified marginal funding offer.","evaluated":{"inputs":{"giftUsd":100000,"fy2024WholeOrganizationExpenseUsd":5975906,"fy2024Meals":226432,"fy2024ReportedClients":1489,"fy2024VolunteerHours":42519,"fy2024ReportedVolunteerValueUsd":1037591,"fy2024ReportedInKindAtLeastUsd":266482,"mealsPerTrialCourse":70,"trialParticipants":1977,"trialMealArm":993,"trialUsualCareArm":984,"primaryHospitalizationHazardRatio":1.02,"exploratoryMealArmMortalityRisk":0.041,"exploratoryUsualCareMortalityRisk":0.054,"sfShare":0},"giftShare":0.01673386428769127,"giftLinkedMeals":3789.08235839051,"giftLinkedReportedClients":24.916723924372302,"nominalTrialCourses":54.129747977007284,"clientBoundedNominalCourses":24.916723924372302,"scenarios":[{"name":"null","weight":0.6,"fundingAdditionality":0.05,"trialLikeCaseShare":0.05,"uniqueDoseReliability":0.6,"mortalityAbsoluteRiskReduction":0,"durableMortalityTransfer":0,"survivalHorizonYears":2,"annualSubsequentSurvival":0.5,"healthUtility":0.55,"eventDelayYears":0.25,"grossResourceMultiplier":1.1736290698012988,"bayShare":0.8,"effectiveTrialLikeCourses":0.03737508588655846,"finiteQalyTailPerAverted90DayDeath":0.5650332163555424,"qalyPerAverted90DayDeath":0,"giftQaly":0,"modeledOrdinaryGiftCostPer10Qaly":null,"modeledGrossResourceCostPer10Qaly":null,"modeledGrossResourcesUsd":117362.90698012988,"verifiedMarginalGiftCostPer10Qaly":null,"verifiedMarginalGrossCostPer10Qaly":null,"bayQaly":0,"sfQaly":0},{"name":"central","weight":0.3,"fundingAdditionality":0.2,"trialLikeCaseShare":0.1,"uniqueDoseReliability":0.75,"mortalityAbsoluteRiskReduction":0.003,"durableMortalityTransfer":0.25,"survivalHorizonYears":3,"annualSubsequentSurvival":0.65,"healthUtility":0.6,"eventDelayYears":0.25,"grossResourceMultiplier":1.1736290698012988,"bayShare":0.9,"effectiveTrialLikeCourses":0.3737508588655846,"finiteQalyTailPerAverted90DayDeath":0.9601286265640889,"qalyPerAverted90DayDeath":0.24003215664102223,"giftQaly":0.0002691366740998218,"modeledOrdinaryGiftCostPer10Qaly":3715584296.880713,"modeledGrossResourceCostPer10Qaly":4360717742.116424,"modeledGrossResourcesUsd":117362.90698012988,"verifiedMarginalGiftCostPer10Qaly":null,"verifiedMarginalGrossCostPer10Qaly":null,"bayQaly":0.00024222300668983964,"sfQaly":0},{"name":"upside","weight":0.1,"fundingAdditionality":0.5,"trialLikeCaseShare":0.3,"uniqueDoseReliability":0.9,"mortalityAbsoluteRiskReduction":0.013,"durableMortalityTransfer":0.5,"survivalHorizonYears":5,"annualSubsequentSurvival":0.75,"healthUtility":0.7,"eventDelayYears":0.25,"grossResourceMultiplier":1.1736290698012988,"bayShare":1,"effectiveTrialLikeCourses":3.3637577297902608,"finiteQalyTailPerAverted90DayDeath":1.7346438628974492,"qalyPerAverted90DayDeath":0.8673219314487246,"giftQaly":0.037926991064654456,"modeledOrdinaryGiftCostPer10Qaly":26366447.005914383,"modeledGrossResourceCostPer10Qaly":30944428.673516534,"modeledGrossResourcesUsd":117362.90698012988,"verifiedMarginalGiftCostPer10Qaly":null,"verifiedMarginalGrossCostPer10Qaly":null,"bayQaly":0.037926991064654456,"sfQaly":0}],"weighted":{"giftQaly":0.0038734401086953927,"modeledGrossResourcesUsd":117362.90698012988,"bayQaly":0.003865366008472398,"modeledOrdinaryGiftCostPer10Qaly":258168442.50544214,"modeledGrossResourceCostPer10Qaly":302993989.0297121,"bayImpactShare":0.9979155221207966,"sfImpactShare":0,"verifiedMarginalGiftCostPer10Qaly":null,"verifiedMarginalGrossCostPer10Qaly":null},"unknownExternalResources":["reported in-kind goods if outside Form 990 expense (overlap unconfirmed)","organic-food opportunity cost beyond booked expense","patient and caregiver time","outside clinical care","payer resources caused by a marginal course"],"verdict":"PUBLISH AS UNFAVORABLE/UNCERTAIN: randomized primary endpoint null; modeled mortality pathway is exploratory and prior-dependent."}}