{"modelVersion":"bamru-whole-org-v1","inputs":{"giftUsd":5000,"maxModeledGiftUsd":5000,"observed2024Missions":16,"observed2024DeploymentDays":29,"historical2017ExpenseExtractUsd":32052,"historical2017RevenueExtractUsd":50775,"historical2017NetAssetsExtractUsd":182585,"currentVerifiedAnnualExpenseUsd":null,"currentVerifiedNetAssetsUsd":null,"measuredBayResidentShare":null,"measuredLivesSaved":null,"completeSocietalResourcesUsd":null},"scenarios":[{"annualCashExpenseUsd":60000,"volumeMultiplier":1,"cashAdditionality":0,"responsivePersonsPerMission":0,"earlierSafeAccessProbability":0,"mortalityRiskDifference":0,"survivalYears":1,"survivalUtility":0.8,"morbidityUtility":0,"morbidityYears":0.1,"harmPerReadinessMission":0,"bayShare":0.4,"sfShare":0.05,"name":"funding_null","weight":0.3},{"annualCashExpenseUsd":60000,"volumeMultiplier":1,"cashAdditionality":0.3,"responsivePersonsPerMission":0,"earlierSafeAccessProbability":0,"mortalityRiskDifference":0,"survivalYears":1,"survivalUtility":0.8,"morbidityUtility":0,"morbidityYears":0.1,"harmPerReadinessMission":0,"bayShare":0.4,"sfShare":0.05,"name":"clinical_null","weight":0.2},{"annualCashExpenseUsd":80000,"volumeMultiplier":1,"cashAdditionality":0.3,"responsivePersonsPerMission":0,"earlierSafeAccessProbability":0,"mortalityRiskDifference":0,"survivalYears":1,"survivalUtility":0.8,"morbidityUtility":0,"morbidityYears":0.1,"harmPerReadinessMission":0.01,"bayShare":0.4,"sfShare":0.05,"name":"harm","weight":0.1},{"annualCashExpenseUsd":100000,"volumeMultiplier":0.75,"cashAdditionality":0.1,"responsivePersonsPerMission":0.2,"earlierSafeAccessProbability":0.1,"mortalityRiskDifference":0.01,"survivalYears":2,"survivalUtility":0.8,"morbidityUtility":0.01,"morbidityYears":0.1,"harmPerReadinessMission":0.0005,"bayShare":0.2,"sfShare":0.02,"name":"cautious","weight":0.2},{"annualCashExpenseUsd":60000,"volumeMultiplier":1,"cashAdditionality":0.3,"responsivePersonsPerMission":0.4,"earlierSafeAccessProbability":0.2,"mortalityRiskDifference":0.04,"survivalYears":5,"survivalUtility":0.8,"morbidityUtility":0.02,"morbidityYears":0.25,"harmPerReadinessMission":0.0005,"bayShare":0.4,"sfShare":0.05,"name":"central","weight":0.15},{"annualCashExpenseUsd":40000,"volumeMultiplier":1.25,"cashAdditionality":0.6,"responsivePersonsPerMission":0.7,"earlierSafeAccessProbability":0.4,"mortalityRiskDifference":0.1,"survivalYears":10,"survivalUtility":0.8,"morbidityUtility":0.04,"morbidityYears":0.5,"harmPerReadinessMission":0.001,"bayShare":0.65,"sfShare":0.1,"name":"favorable","weight":0.05}],"sources":[{"publisher":"BAMRU","title":"Organization, activity and identity","url":"https://www.bamru.org/","published":"Undated current page","retrieved":"2026-09-11","sourceType":"Primary organization","note":"20+ operations, 50+ members and 16,000+ volunteer hours are undated headline claims. Model uses the dated Sheriff mission count instead."},{"publisher":"BAMRU","title":"Donation scope","url":"https://www.bamru.org/donate/","published":"Undated current page","retrieved":"2026-09-11","sourceType":"Primary organization","note":"EIN23-7098709, no paid employees; gifts support training, equipment and deployments. Not proof of marginal readiness."},{"publisher":"BAMRU","title":"Partners and mutual aid","url":"https://www.bamru.org/partners/","published":"Undated current page","retrieved":"2026-09-11","sourceType":"Primary organization","note":"Statewide deployment through Sheriff/CalOES and other mutual-aid teams; alternatives and co-production are material."},{"publisher":"San Mateo County Sheriff","title":"2024 missions and 2025 training release","url":"https://www.smcsheriff.com/sites/default/files/articles/03-06-2025%20Large-Scale%20Search%20and%20Rescue%20Training%20Exercise%20Happening%20this%20Weekend%20at%20Huddart%20Park%2C%20Park%20Closed%20and%20Traffic%20Delays%20Expected.pdf","published":"2025-03-06","retrieved":"2026-09-11","sourceType":"Primary government release","note":"Directly read PDF:16 missions and29days in2024; no patient/death count. Public download required TLS verification bypass after certificate error; contents corroborate indexed release."},{"publisher":"San Mateo County Sheriff / Meliora","title":"Organizational assessment, pages362–363","url":"https://www.smcsheriff.com/sites/default/files/resources_files/Meliora%20Assessment%20-%20San%20Mateo%20County%20Sheriff%E2%80%99s%20Office.pdf","published":"July2024","retrieved":"2026-09-11","sourceType":"Government-commissioned assessment","note":"SMCSO replaces some equipment; mostly members/small donors cover budget; state workers compensation. 25 statewide mutual-aid deployments and2in SanMateo in2023. Different year/unit from16missions2024; not added. Heading erroneously says Mounted but text identifies mountain unit."},{"publisher":"IRS via ProPublica API","title":"Historical2017 990-EZ extraction","url":"https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/api/v2/organizations/237098709.json","published":"Taxyear2017; current BMF extract2026","retrieved":"2026-09-11","sourceType":"IRS-derived extraction, original not verified","note":"2017expenses32052,revenue50775,netassets182585. PDF retrieval returned security HTML; current BMF zero fields are missing financial data, not zero operations. No current account verification."},{"publisher":"Marin Search and Rescue","title":"2024 missions: Occidental and Lyons Lake","url":"https://marinsar.org/missions/2024","published":"2024","retrieved":"2026-09-11","sourceType":"Primary partner operational reports","note":"June2Occidental BAMRU and others searched; person tired but goodcondition, helicopter pickup. Aug15LyonsLake multipleteams supported dehydrated nonambulatory patient extraction. Examples show real help, not uniquely attributable deathsavoided. Not a representative BAMRU census."},{"publisher":"Adams et al.","title":"Search is a time-critical event: when search and rescue missions may become futile","url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17590071/","published":"2007","retrieved":"2026-09-11","sourceType":"Primary observational study, abstract search","note":"Retrospective survival/prognosis, excludes body recovery and other categories; no randomized marginal-team effect. No coefficient transferred."},{"publisher":"Oshiro et al.","title":"Causes of death and characteristics of non-survivors rescued during recreational mountain activities in Japan","url":"https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/12/2/e053935","published":"2022","retrieved":"2026-09-11","sourceType":"Primary retrospective study","note":"Study selected nonsurvivors; delay/severity association cannot estimate BAMRU survival effect or all-mission baseline risk. Used only for mechanism and disconfirmation."}],"evaluated":{"modelVersion":"bamru-whole-org-v1","inputs":{"giftUsd":5000,"maxModeledGiftUsd":5000,"observed2024Missions":16,"observed2024DeploymentDays":29,"historical2017ExpenseExtractUsd":32052,"historical2017RevenueExtractUsd":50775,"historical2017NetAssetsExtractUsd":182585,"currentVerifiedAnnualExpenseUsd":null,"currentVerifiedNetAssetsUsd":null,"measuredBayResidentShare":null,"measuredLivesSaved":null,"completeSocietalResourcesUsd":null},"rows":[{"annualCashExpenseUsd":60000,"volumeMultiplier":1,"cashAdditionality":0,"responsivePersonsPerMission":0,"earlierSafeAccessProbability":0,"mortalityRiskDifference":0,"survivalYears":1,"survivalUtility":0.8,"morbidityUtility":0,"morbidityYears":0.1,"harmPerReadinessMission":0,"bayShare":0.4,"sfShare":0.05,"name":"funding_null","weight":0.3,"readinessEquivalentMissions":0,"changedAccessPersons":0,"deathsAverted":0,"mortalityQaly":0,"morbidityQaly":0,"harmQaly":0,"netQaly":0,"bayQaly":0,"sfQaly":0,"bayDonorCostPer10Qaly":null},{"annualCashExpenseUsd":60000,"volumeMultiplier":1,"cashAdditionality":0.3,"responsivePersonsPerMission":0,"earlierSafeAccessProbability":0,"mortalityRiskDifference":0,"survivalYears":1,"survivalUtility":0.8,"morbidityUtility":0,"morbidityYears":0.1,"harmPerReadinessMission":0,"bayShare":0.4,"sfShare":0.05,"name":"clinical_null","weight":0.2,"readinessEquivalentMissions":0.39999999999999997,"changedAccessPersons":0,"deathsAverted":0,"mortalityQaly":0,"morbidityQaly":0,"harmQaly":0,"netQaly":0,"bayQaly":0,"sfQaly":0,"bayDonorCostPer10Qaly":null},{"annualCashExpenseUsd":80000,"volumeMultiplier":1,"cashAdditionality":0.3,"responsivePersonsPerMission":0,"earlierSafeAccessProbability":0,"mortalityRiskDifference":0,"survivalYears":1,"survivalUtility":0.8,"morbidityUtility":0,"morbidityYears":0.1,"harmPerReadinessMission":0.01,"bayShare":0.4,"sfShare":0.05,"name":"harm","weight":0.1,"readinessEquivalentMissions":0.3,"changedAccessPersons":0,"deathsAverted":0,"mortalityQaly":0,"morbidityQaly":0,"harmQaly":0.003,"netQaly":-0.003,"bayQaly":-0.0012000000000000001,"sfQaly":-0.00015000000000000001,"bayDonorCostPer10Qaly":null},{"annualCashExpenseUsd":100000,"volumeMultiplier":0.75,"cashAdditionality":0.1,"responsivePersonsPerMission":0.2,"earlierSafeAccessProbability":0.1,"mortalityRiskDifference":0.01,"survivalYears":2,"survivalUtility":0.8,"morbidityUtility":0.01,"morbidityYears":0.1,"harmPerReadinessMission":0.0005,"bayShare":0.2,"sfShare":0.02,"name":"cautious","weight":0.2,"readinessEquivalentMissions":0.06000000000000001,"changedAccessPersons":0.0012000000000000005,"deathsAverted":0.000012000000000000005,"mortalityQaly":0.00001920000000000001,"morbidityQaly":0.0000012000000000000006,"harmQaly":0.000030000000000000008,"netQaly":-0.000009599999999999996,"bayQaly":-0.0000019199999999999994,"sfQaly":-1.9199999999999992e-7,"bayDonorCostPer10Qaly":null},{"annualCashExpenseUsd":60000,"volumeMultiplier":1,"cashAdditionality":0.3,"responsivePersonsPerMission":0.4,"earlierSafeAccessProbability":0.2,"mortalityRiskDifference":0.04,"survivalYears":5,"survivalUtility":0.8,"morbidityUtility":0.02,"morbidityYears":0.25,"harmPerReadinessMission":0.0005,"bayShare":0.4,"sfShare":0.05,"name":"central","weight":0.15,"readinessEquivalentMissions":0.39999999999999997,"changedAccessPersons":0.032,"deathsAverted":0.00128,"mortalityQaly":0.00512,"morbidityQaly":0.00016,"harmQaly":0.00019999999999999998,"netQaly":0.005080000000000001,"bayQaly":0.0020320000000000004,"sfQaly":0.00025400000000000005,"bayDonorCostPer10Qaly":24606299.21259842},{"annualCashExpenseUsd":40000,"volumeMultiplier":1.25,"cashAdditionality":0.6,"responsivePersonsPerMission":0.7,"earlierSafeAccessProbability":0.4,"mortalityRiskDifference":0.1,"survivalYears":10,"survivalUtility":0.8,"morbidityUtility":0.04,"morbidityYears":0.5,"harmPerReadinessMission":0.001,"bayShare":0.65,"sfShare":0.1,"name":"favorable","weight":0.05,"readinessEquivalentMissions":1.5,"changedAccessPersons":0.41999999999999993,"deathsAverted":0.041999999999999996,"mortalityQaly":0.33599999999999997,"morbidityQaly":0.0084,"harmQaly":0.0015,"netQaly":0.3429,"bayQaly":0.222885,"sfQaly":0.03429,"bayDonorCostPer10Qaly":224330.9329923503}],"weighted":{"readinessEquivalentMissions":0.257,"changedAccessPersons":0.026039999999999997,"deathsAverted":0.0022944,"mortalityQaly":0.01757184,"morbidityQaly":0.00044424000000000004,"harmQaly":0.000411,"netQaly":0.017605080000000002,"bayQaly":0.011328666000000001,"sfQaly":0.0017375616,"bayDonorCostPer10Qaly":4413582.322931931,"sfDonorCostPer10Qaly":28775958.216387838,"donorCostPer10Qaly":2840089.337850211},"favorableShareOfSignedBayQaly":0.9837212960466837,"noFavorable":{"bayQaly":0.0001941221052631579,"bayDonorCostPer10Qaly":257569842.09613046},"thresholdJudgments":{"below1m":0.05,"below100k":0,"interpretation":"Subjective scenario mass, not calibrated probability"},"currentVerifiedAnnualExpenseUsd":null,"verifiedMarginalFundingOffer":null,"completeSocietalResourcesUsd":null,"measuredQaly":null,"status":"exploratory draft; HOLD giving; independent audit required"},"verifiedMarginalFundingOffer":null,"completeSocietalResourcesUsd":null,"interpretation":"Audited exploratory calculation; HOLD giving. Current whole cash expense is an analyst assumption, not verified accounts. Rescue activity is not measured deaths prevented; joint scenarios include null and harm. Prior weights are not calibrated probabilities."}