{"schemaVersion":"1.0.0","modelId":"amf-public-net-gift-v1","status":"Independently audited conditional research model; analyst priors, not calibrated marginal campaign forecast","date":"2026-09-08","organization":"Against Malaria Foundation","scope":"Ordinary public gift to AMF's core net-purchase route, allocated among AMF-selected campaigns. Representative core-giving estimate, not unrestricted all-expense funding or a GiveWell pooled-fund gift.","dedup":"48 unique available worktree charity slugs checked; none is AMF. Not a certified remote roster census.","fundingSnapshot":{"source":"https://www.againstmalaria.com/AMFFundingGap.aspx","date":"2026-09-08","fundsInHandAbleToCommitUsd":488550000,"committedUsd":360160000,"availableToCommitUsd":128380000,"approvedSeekingFundingUsd":199060000,"immediateGapUsd":70670000,"note":"Rounded displayed values do not reconcile exactly. Retrieved direct HTML via curl; web endpoint timed out. Already-funded $276m DRC2027–29 GiveWell/Coefficient grant is comparator baseline, not this gift."},"evidence":{"trial":"Ghana clusterRCT1993–95, age6–59months, allcause mortality RR.83(.69–1.00); not AMF-specific trial. Trial had reimpregnation and high coverage. Modern transfer .5 is analyst judgment.","primarySourceUrls":["https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1365-3156.1996.tb00020.x","https://www.againstmalaria.com/NonNetCosts.aspx","https://www.againstmalaria.com/Downloads/AMF_Accounts_Global_2025.pdf","https://www.againstmalaria.com/AMFFundingGap.aspx","https://www.againstmalaria.com/CharityStatus.aspx","https://blog.givewell.org/2026/08/24/announcing-our-largest-grant-to-date/","https://blog.givewell.org/2026/08/27/the-research-behind-our-276-million-grant-for-malaria-nets-in-drc/","https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8971961/","https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2112524","https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/search?query=EXT_ID:12625130&resultType=core&format=json","https://edoc.unibas.ch/entities/publication/13abd604-254f-428c-930a-9a13a6b53177"],"accessLimits":"Ghana1996 primary abstract verified; Ghana2002 follow-up primary indexed abstract verified through EuropePMC MED12625130 (no indication of increased later mortality through2000). Tanzania2022 prospective-cohort primary institutional abstract verified. These support survival persistence qualitatively, not the numerical survival schedule. Accounts indexedprimary passages inspected, not fullPDF."},"judgments":{"mortality":".015 annual allcause risk per6–59month child-year is analyst planning prior for unknown marginal campaign; not under5deaths perlivebirth, not measured AMF weightedrate.","coverage":"Fractions .8/.5/.2 are trial-equivalent functionalprotection, not use measurement; three annualintervals, zero beyond. Children ageout/newentrants represented by population personyears. Central year3 protection is an extrapolation beyond the two-year Ghana trial. The .8/.5/.2 functional fractions are relative to the trial-level community package, not an independently measured dose-response or literal fraction of unique individual netusers. No extra herd-benefit multiplier.","additionality":"Combined funding/output additionality beyond otherdonors and alreadyfunctionalnets; no second funding or samepartnercredit.","cost":"Central$3cash commodity+$3otherresources, alljudgment informed by AMF$2commodity/$4.50delivered illustrations; nonnetcosts funded separately are notfree.","survival":"Finite analyst survivaldifference afterearlydeath: persistentFraction*annualSurvival^(k-.5), utility weighted,3%discount. Not a sourced lifetable or automaticfullremaininglifespan. Zero beyond horizon. The .8 persistentFraction gives zero longterm credit to the remaining .2; it is cautious analyst shrinkage, not an observed catch-up rate. Background survival, utility and truncation horizon are uncalibrated priors. Donation delay and postdeath discount are separate time intervals, not two discounts for the same year.","harm":"Sharedharm scaled byadditionality, independentharm atgift outside. No empiricallycalibrated resistance/ecologicalharm estimate.","excluded":"No morbidity/adult/pregnancy/productivity/transmissionextra or GiveWellmoralweights; Baydirect0, indirectunmeasured/zero credited.","resourcePerspective":"Legacy resourceCostUsd/resourceUsdPer10Qaly fields are GROSS associated full-package resource sensitivities: charge cash plus estimated partner costs for every sponsored net, even where other financing might replace it. They are not net societal incremental costs. Substitution could reduce net resources; medical savings/consumption costs not estimated. Co-funded overhead, volunteer labor and logistics allowance included once; commodity price not added twice.","ranges":"Favorable/pessimistic are joint analyst scenarios, not probability intervals. Favorable .25 relativeeffect is not Binka's pointestimate; no scenario weights or expected-value aggregation established."},"formulas":{"L":"persistentFraction*utility*sum[k=1..H](annualSurvival^(k-.5)/1.03^(k-.5))","E":"sum[i=0..2](coverage[i]/1.03^(delay+i+.5))","D":"people*childShare*mortality*rrr*transport*additionality*E","QperNet":"D*L-additionality*sharedHarm/1.03^(delay+.5)-independentHarm","ratio":"10*price/QperNet iff positive else null","resources":"10*(price+extra)/QperNet iff positive else null"},"scenarios":[{"id":"central","price":3,"extra":3,"people":1.8,"childShare":0.14,"mortality":0.015,"rrr":0.17,"transport":0.5,"coverage":[0.8,0.5,0.2],"delay":1,"additionality":0.5,"horizon":40,"annualSurvival":0.99,"utility":0.85,"persistentFraction":0.8,"sharedHarm":0.00001,"independentHarm":0,"outputs":{"netCount":1000,"donorCostUsd":3000,"resourceCostUsd":6000,"survivalQalyPerEarlyDeathAtEvent":13.646136753565903,"discountedCoverageYears":1.4100311412192326,"earlyDeathsAvertedUndiscounted":0.24097500000000005,"earlyDeathsAvertedDiscountWeighted":0.22652150283686978,"totalNetQaly":3.086360253499443,"donorUsdPer10Qaly":9720.187384471647,"resourceUsdPer10Qaly":19440.374768943293,"bayDirectQaly":0,"bayIndirectCreditedQaly":0,"bayUsdPer10Qaly":null}},{"id":"favorable","price":2,"extra":2.5,"people":2,"childShare":0.16,"mortality":0.025,"rrr":0.25,"transport":0.8,"coverage":[0.9,0.7,0.4],"delay":0.5,"additionality":0.8,"horizon":60,"annualSurvival":0.995,"utility":0.9,"persistentFraction":1,"sharedHarm":0,"independentHarm":0,"outputs":{"netCount":1000,"donorCostUsd":2000,"resourceCostUsd":4500,"survivalQalyPerEarlyDeathAtEvent":22.761010110239432,"discountedCoverageYears":1.899660207901882,"earlyDeathsAvertedUndiscounted":2.56,"earlyDeathsAvertedDiscountWeighted":2.431565066114409,"totalNetQaly":55.34487705353508,"donorUsdPer10Qaly":361.3703935172538,"resourceUsdPer10Qaly":813.083385413821,"bayDirectQaly":0,"bayIndirectCreditedQaly":0,"bayUsdPer10Qaly":null}},{"id":"pessimisticPositive","price":5,"extra":5,"people":1.5,"childShare":0.1,"mortality":0.005,"rrr":0.1,"transport":0.25,"coverage":[0.5,0.2,0],"delay":2,"additionality":0.2,"horizon":15,"annualSurvival":0.98,"utility":0.75,"persistentFraction":0.5,"sharedHarm":0.000005,"independentHarm":0,"outputs":{"netCount":1000,"donorCostUsd":5000,"resourceCostUsd":10000,"survivalQalyPerEarlyDeathAtEvent":3.963050523197141,"discountedCoverageYears":0.6447268474993934,"earlyDeathsAvertedUndiscounted":0.0026250000000000006,"earlyDeathsAvertedDiscountWeighted":0.0024177256781227263,"totalNetQaly":0.008652801666884055,"donorUsdPer10Qaly":5778475.218189696,"resourceUsdPer10Qaly":11556950.436379392,"bayDirectQaly":0,"bayIndirectCreditedQaly":0,"bayUsdPer10Qaly":null}},{"id":"nullFundingReplacement","price":3,"extra":3,"people":1.8,"childShare":0.14,"mortality":0.015,"rrr":0.17,"transport":0.5,"coverage":[0.8,0.5,0.2],"delay":1,"additionality":0,"horizon":40,"annualSurvival":0.99,"utility":0.85,"persistentFraction":0.8,"sharedHarm":0.00001,"independentHarm":0,"outputs":{"netCount":1000,"donorCostUsd":3000,"resourceCostUsd":6000,"survivalQalyPerEarlyDeathAtEvent":13.646136753565903,"discountedCoverageYears":1.4100311412192326,"earlyDeathsAvertedUndiscounted":0,"earlyDeathsAvertedDiscountWeighted":0,"totalNetQaly":0,"donorUsdPer10Qaly":null,"resourceUsdPer10Qaly":null,"bayDirectQaly":0,"bayIndirectCreditedQaly":0,"bayUsdPer10Qaly":null}},{"id":"nullClinicalEffect","price":3,"extra":3,"people":1.8,"childShare":0.14,"mortality":0.015,"rrr":0,"transport":0.5,"coverage":[0.8,0.5,0.2],"delay":1,"additionality":0.5,"horizon":40,"annualSurvival":0.99,"utility":0.85,"persistentFraction":0.8,"sharedHarm":0,"independentHarm":0,"outputs":{"netCount":1000,"donorCostUsd":3000,"resourceCostUsd":6000,"survivalQalyPerEarlyDeathAtEvent":13.646136753565903,"discountedCoverageYears":1.4100311412192326,"earlyDeathsAvertedUndiscounted":0,"earlyDeathsAvertedDiscountWeighted":0,"totalNetQaly":0,"donorUsdPer10Qaly":null,"resourceUsdPer10Qaly":null,"bayDirectQaly":0,"bayIndirectCreditedQaly":0,"bayUsdPer10Qaly":null}},{"id":"clinicalNullWithHarm","price":3,"extra":3,"people":1.8,"childShare":0.14,"mortality":0.015,"rrr":0,"transport":0.5,"coverage":[0.8,0.5,0.2],"delay":1,"additionality":0.5,"horizon":40,"annualSurvival":0.99,"utility":0.85,"persistentFraction":0.8,"sharedHarm":0.00001,"independentHarm":0,"outputs":{"netCount":1000,"donorCostUsd":3000,"resourceCostUsd":6000,"survivalQalyPerEarlyDeathAtEvent":13.646136753565903,"discountedCoverageYears":1.4100311412192326,"earlyDeathsAvertedUndiscounted":0,"earlyDeathsAvertedDiscountWeighted":0,"totalNetQaly":-0.004783151835748995,"donorUsdPer10Qaly":null,"resourceUsdPer10Qaly":null,"bayDirectQaly":0,"bayIndirectCreditedQaly":0,"bayUsdPer10Qaly":null}},{"id":"shortSurvivalPostponement","price":3,"extra":3,"people":1.8,"childShare":0.14,"mortality":0.015,"rrr":0.17,"transport":0.5,"coverage":[0.8,0.5,0.2],"delay":1,"additionality":0.5,"horizon":3,"annualSurvival":0.99,"utility":0.85,"persistentFraction":1,"sharedHarm":0.00001,"independentHarm":0,"outputs":{"netCount":1000,"donorCostUsd":3000,"resourceCostUsd":6000,"survivalQalyPerEarlyDeathAtEvent":2.4041647476100745,"discountedCoverageYears":1.4100311412192326,"earlyDeathsAvertedUndiscounted":0.24097500000000005,"earlyDeathsAvertedDiscountWeighted":0.22652150283686978,"totalNetQaly":0.5398118598603088,"donorUsdPer10Qaly":55574.91828312799,"resourceUsdPer10Qaly":111149.83656625598,"bayDirectQaly":0,"bayIndirectCreditedQaly":0,"bayUsdPer10Qaly":null}},{"id":"independentDonorHarm","price":3,"extra":3,"people":1.8,"childShare":0.14,"mortality":0.015,"rrr":0.17,"transport":0.5,"coverage":[0.8,0.5,0.2],"delay":1,"additionality":0.5,"horizon":40,"annualSurvival":0.99,"utility":0.85,"persistentFraction":0.8,"sharedHarm":0.00001,"independentHarm":0.01,"outputs":{"netCount":1000,"donorCostUsd":3000,"resourceCostUsd":6000,"survivalQalyPerEarlyDeathAtEvent":13.646136753565903,"discountedCoverageYears":1.4100311412192326,"earlyDeathsAvertedUndiscounted":0.24097500000000005,"earlyDeathsAvertedDiscountWeighted":0.22652150283686978,"totalNetQaly":-6.913639746500556,"donorUsdPer10Qaly":null,"resourceUsdPer10Qaly":null,"bayDirectQaly":0,"bayIndirectCreditedQaly":0,"bayUsdPer10Qaly":null}},{"id":"nullFundingWithIndependentHarm","price":3,"extra":3,"people":1.8,"childShare":0.14,"mortality":0.015,"rrr":0.17,"transport":0.5,"coverage":[0.8,0.5,0.2],"delay":1,"additionality":0,"horizon":40,"annualSurvival":0.99,"utility":0.85,"persistentFraction":0.8,"sharedHarm":0.00001,"independentHarm":0.01,"outputs":{"netCount":1000,"donorCostUsd":3000,"resourceCostUsd":6000,"survivalQalyPerEarlyDeathAtEvent":13.646136753565903,"discountedCoverageYears":1.4100311412192326,"earlyDeathsAvertedUndiscounted":0,"earlyDeathsAvertedDiscountWeighted":0,"totalNetQaly":-10,"donorUsdPer10Qaly":null,"resourceUsdPer10Qaly":null,"bayDirectQaly":0,"bayIndirectCreditedQaly":0,"bayUsdPer10Qaly":null}}],"bay":{"directShare":0,"indirectCreditedShare":0,"ratio":null,"meaning":"Overseas core program has no direct Bay clinical service. Indirect Bay effects unmeasured and zero credited, not proof none exist. Null ratio cannot be ranked as cheap local health; all global health retains full weight in global comparison."},"verification":{"checksPassed":113,"definition":"9 independently expanded calendar-by-survival QALY sums plus104 original numeric/null output comparisons (13fields×8 original scenarios). Parsed and recalculated all9 scenarios; this is internal consistency, not empirical validation.","coreNumbersUnchangedFromCheckpoint":true,"independentAuditPending":true},"provenance":{"checkpointDate":"2026-09-08","resume":"Parent confirmed explicit user research resume after design1–3, publicv139/PR213","review":"./amf-review.md","primaryAudit":"./amf-source-audit.md","siteChanges":false},"evaluated":[{"id":"central","globalQaly":3.0863602534994445,"donorCostUsd":3000,"grossAssociatedCostUsd":6000,"globalUsdPerQaly":972.0187384471642,"globalUsdPer10Qaly":9720.187384471643,"grossAssociatedUsdPer10Qaly":19440.374768943286,"bayDirectQaly":0,"bayIndirectCreditedQaly":0,"bayUsdPer10Qaly":null,"bayCreditedHealthShare":0},{"id":"favorable","globalQaly":55.34487705353517,"donorCostUsd":2000,"grossAssociatedCostUsd":4500,"globalUsdPerQaly":36.13703935172532,"globalUsdPer10Qaly":361.37039351725315,"grossAssociatedUsdPer10Qaly":813.0833854138197,"bayDirectQaly":0,"bayIndirectCreditedQaly":0,"bayUsdPer10Qaly":null,"bayCreditedHealthShare":0},{"id":"pessimisticPositive","globalQaly":0.008652801666884048,"donorCostUsd":5000,"grossAssociatedCostUsd":10000,"globalUsdPerQaly":577847.52181897,"globalUsdPer10Qaly":5778475.2181897005,"grossAssociatedUsdPer10Qaly":11556950.436379401,"bayDirectQaly":0,"bayIndirectCreditedQaly":0,"bayUsdPer10Qaly":null,"bayCreditedHealthShare":0},{"id":"nullFundingReplacement","globalQaly":0,"donorCostUsd":3000,"grossAssociatedCostUsd":6000,"globalUsdPerQaly":null,"globalUsdPer10Qaly":null,"grossAssociatedUsdPer10Qaly":null,"bayDirectQaly":0,"bayIndirectCreditedQaly":0,"bayUsdPer10Qaly":null,"bayCreditedHealthShare":0},{"id":"nullClinicalEffect","globalQaly":0,"donorCostUsd":3000,"grossAssociatedCostUsd":6000,"globalUsdPerQaly":null,"globalUsdPer10Qaly":null,"grossAssociatedUsdPer10Qaly":null,"bayDirectQaly":0,"bayIndirectCreditedQaly":0,"bayUsdPer10Qaly":null,"bayCreditedHealthShare":0},{"id":"clinicalNullWithHarm","globalQaly":-0.004783151835748995,"donorCostUsd":3000,"grossAssociatedCostUsd":6000,"globalUsdPerQaly":null,"globalUsdPer10Qaly":null,"grossAssociatedUsdPer10Qaly":null,"bayDirectQaly":0,"bayIndirectCreditedQaly":0,"bayUsdPer10Qaly":null,"bayCreditedHealthShare":0},{"id":"shortSurvivalPostponement","globalQaly":0.5398118598603088,"donorCostUsd":3000,"grossAssociatedCostUsd":6000,"globalUsdPerQaly":5557.491828312799,"globalUsdPer10Qaly":55574.91828312799,"grossAssociatedUsdPer10Qaly":111149.83656625598,"bayDirectQaly":0,"bayIndirectCreditedQaly":0,"bayUsdPer10Qaly":null,"bayCreditedHealthShare":0},{"id":"independentDonorHarm","globalQaly":-6.9136397465005555,"donorCostUsd":3000,"grossAssociatedCostUsd":6000,"globalUsdPerQaly":null,"globalUsdPer10Qaly":null,"grossAssociatedUsdPer10Qaly":null,"bayDirectQaly":0,"bayIndirectCreditedQaly":0,"bayUsdPer10Qaly":null,"bayCreditedHealthShare":0},{"id":"nullFundingWithIndependentHarm","globalQaly":-10,"donorCostUsd":3000,"grossAssociatedCostUsd":6000,"globalUsdPerQaly":null,"globalUsdPer10Qaly":null,"grossAssociatedUsdPer10Qaly":null,"bayDirectQaly":0,"bayIndirectCreditedQaly":0,"bayUsdPer10Qaly":null,"bayCreditedHealthShare":0}]}