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Recoveries depended on the security and reorganization, so the stock-price index is not a bondholder loss estimate.","transmission":"Railroad funding difficulties contributed to Jay Cooke & Co. suspending payments on September 18, 1873. Loss of confidence spread to other banks and depositors, disrupting withdrawals, credit, and payments; business failures and unemployment transmitted the shock beyond securities holders.","public":"Workers, households, and businesses bore wider economic disruption. These sources do not establish a comprehensive taxpayer-loss total or a public/private share of losses; neither is estimated here.","sources":["https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/banking-panics-of-the-gilded-age","https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2016/02/crisis-chronicles-the-long-depression-and-the-panic-of-1873/"],"timingNote":"The chart reference is the April 1872 monthly price peak. The September 1873 panic is a separately labeled event 17 months later. 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Paper estimates1989adjustedPE32.6 vs reported53.7."},{"caseId":"japan1989","date":"1978-12","pe":21.5,"metric":"reported PE","proxy":"NRI 350 Japanese nonfinancial firms","cadence":"year-end; 1990 is August-end","source":"https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/publications/1-s2.0-0304405X91900066-main.pdf","locator":"Table4, printed344, PDF8","note":"Not Nikkei225. Unconsolidated Japanese earnings; not accounting-harmonized US PE. Paper estimates1989adjustedPE32.6 vs reported53.7."},{"caseId":"japan1989","date":"1979-12","pe":16.6,"metric":"reported PE","proxy":"NRI 350 Japanese nonfinancial firms","cadence":"year-end; 1990 is August-end","source":"https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/publications/1-s2.0-0304405X91900066-main.pdf","locator":"Table4, printed344, PDF8","note":"Not Nikkei225. Unconsolidated Japanese earnings; not accounting-harmonized US PE. Paper estimates1989adjustedPE32.6 vs reported53.7."},{"caseId":"japan1989","date":"1980-12","pe":17.9,"metric":"reported PE","proxy":"NRI 350 Japanese nonfinancial firms","cadence":"year-end; 1990 is August-end","source":"https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/publications/1-s2.0-0304405X91900066-main.pdf","locator":"Table4, printed344, PDF8","note":"Not Nikkei225. Unconsolidated Japanese earnings; not accounting-harmonized US PE. Paper estimates1989adjustedPE32.6 vs reported53.7."},{"caseId":"japan1989","date":"1981-12","pe":24.9,"metric":"reported PE","proxy":"NRI 350 Japanese nonfinancial firms","cadence":"year-end; 1990 is August-end","source":"https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/publications/1-s2.0-0304405X91900066-main.pdf","locator":"Table4, printed344, PDF8","note":"Not Nikkei225. Unconsolidated Japanese earnings; not accounting-harmonized US PE. Paper estimates1989adjustedPE32.6 vs reported53.7."},{"caseId":"japan1989","date":"1982-12","pe":23.7,"metric":"reported PE","proxy":"NRI 350 Japanese nonfinancial firms","cadence":"year-end; 1990 is August-end","source":"https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/publications/1-s2.0-0304405X91900066-main.pdf","locator":"Table4, printed344, PDF8","note":"Not Nikkei225. Unconsolidated Japanese earnings; not accounting-harmonized US PE. Paper estimates1989adjustedPE32.6 vs reported53.7."},{"caseId":"japan1989","date":"1983-12","pe":29.4,"metric":"reported PE","proxy":"NRI 350 Japanese nonfinancial firms","cadence":"year-end; 1990 is August-end","source":"https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/publications/1-s2.0-0304405X91900066-main.pdf","locator":"Table4, printed344, PDF8","note":"Not Nikkei225. Unconsolidated Japanese earnings; not accounting-harmonized US PE. Paper estimates1989adjustedPE32.6 vs reported53.7."},{"caseId":"japan1989","date":"1984-12","pe":26.3,"metric":"reported PE","proxy":"NRI 350 Japanese nonfinancial firms","cadence":"year-end; 1990 is August-end","source":"https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/publications/1-s2.0-0304405X91900066-main.pdf","locator":"Table4, printed344, PDF8","note":"Not Nikkei225. Unconsolidated Japanese earnings; not accounting-harmonized US PE. Paper estimates1989adjustedPE32.6 vs reported53.7."},{"caseId":"japan1989","date":"1985-12","pe":29.4,"metric":"reported PE","proxy":"NRI 350 Japanese nonfinancial firms","cadence":"year-end; 1990 is August-end","source":"https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/publications/1-s2.0-0304405X91900066-main.pdf","locator":"Table4, printed344, PDF8","note":"Not Nikkei225. Unconsolidated Japanese earnings; not accounting-harmonized US PE. Paper estimates1989adjustedPE32.6 vs reported53.7."},{"caseId":"japan1989","date":"1986-12","pe":58.6,"metric":"reported PE","proxy":"NRI 350 Japanese nonfinancial firms","cadence":"year-end; 1990 is August-end","source":"https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/publications/1-s2.0-0304405X91900066-main.pdf","locator":"Table4, printed344, PDF8","note":"Not Nikkei225. Unconsolidated Japanese earnings; not accounting-harmonized US PE. Paper estimates1989adjustedPE32.6 vs reported53.7."},{"caseId":"japan1989","date":"1987-12","pe":50.4,"metric":"reported PE","proxy":"NRI 350 Japanese nonfinancial firms","cadence":"year-end; 1990 is August-end","source":"https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/publications/1-s2.0-0304405X91900066-main.pdf","locator":"Table4, printed344, PDF8","note":"Not Nikkei225. Unconsolidated Japanese earnings; not accounting-harmonized US PE. Paper estimates1989adjustedPE32.6 vs reported53.7."},{"caseId":"japan1989","date":"1988-12","pe":54.3,"metric":"reported PE","proxy":"NRI 350 Japanese nonfinancial firms","cadence":"year-end; 1990 is August-end","source":"https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/publications/1-s2.0-0304405X91900066-main.pdf","locator":"Table4, printed344, PDF8","note":"Not Nikkei225. Unconsolidated Japanese earnings; not accounting-harmonized US PE. Paper estimates1989adjustedPE32.6 vs reported53.7."},{"caseId":"japan1989","date":"1989-12","pe":53.7,"metric":"reported PE","proxy":"NRI 350 Japanese nonfinancial firms","cadence":"year-end; 1990 is August-end","source":"https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/publications/1-s2.0-0304405X91900066-main.pdf","locator":"Table4, printed344, PDF8","note":"Not Nikkei225. Unconsolidated Japanese earnings; not accounting-harmonized US PE. Paper estimates1989adjustedPE32.6 vs reported53.7."},{"caseId":"japan1989","date":"1990-08","pe":36.6,"metric":"reported PE","proxy":"NRI 350 Japanese nonfinancial firms","cadence":"year-end; 1990 is August-end","source":"https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/publications/1-s2.0-0304405X91900066-main.pdf","locator":"Table4, printed344, PDF8","note":"Not Nikkei225. Unconsolidated Japanese earnings; not accounting-harmonized US PE. Paper estimates1989adjustedPE32.6 vs reported53.7."},{"caseId":"china2007","date":"2005-12","pe":16.33,"metric":"reported PE","proxy":"Shanghai Stock Exchange total market","cadence":"year-end","source":"https://www.sse.com.cn/aboutus/publication/yearly/documents/c/10061086/files/c6db3f91030b4533ad5bd85cb421b18e.pdf","locator":"printed133, PDF145, code000001","note":"Different universe from OECD China price proxy. Year-end observation is NOT crash-peak PE; do not interpolate to monthly. 2015total includesA+B; A-share-onlyPE17.61."},{"caseId":"china2007","date":"2006-12","pe":33.3,"metric":"reported PE","proxy":"Shanghai Stock Exchange total market","cadence":"year-end","source":"https://www.sse.com.cn/aboutus/publication/yearly/documents/c/10061086/files/c6db3f91030b4533ad5bd85cb421b18e.pdf","locator":"printed133, PDF145, code000001","note":"Different universe from OECD China price proxy. Year-end observation is NOT crash-peak PE; do not interpolate to monthly. 2015total includesA+B; A-share-onlyPE17.61."},{"caseId":"china2007","date":"2007-12","pe":59.24,"metric":"reported PE","proxy":"Shanghai Stock Exchange total market","cadence":"year-end","source":"https://www.sse.com.cn/aboutus/publication/yearly/documents/c/10061086/files/c6db3f91030b4533ad5bd85cb421b18e.pdf","locator":"printed133, PDF145, code000001","note":"Different universe from OECD China price proxy. Year-end observation is NOT crash-peak PE; do not interpolate to monthly. 2015total includesA+B; A-share-onlyPE17.61."},{"caseId":"china2015","date":"2013-12","pe":10.99,"metric":"reported PE","proxy":"Shanghai Stock Exchange total market","cadence":"year-end","source":"https://star.sse.com.cn/aboutus/publication/yearly/documents/c/10061078/files/08c138fe02fa460aa1c217eaf20b2b69.pdf","locator":"printed6, PDF10, P/E Ratio total row","note":"Different universe from OECD China price proxy. Year-end observation is NOT crash-peak PE; do not interpolate to monthly. 2015total includesA+B; A-share-onlyPE17.61."},{"caseId":"china2015","date":"2014-12","pe":15.99,"metric":"reported PE","proxy":"Shanghai Stock Exchange total market","cadence":"year-end","source":"https://star.sse.com.cn/aboutus/publication/yearly/documents/c/10061078/files/08c138fe02fa460aa1c217eaf20b2b69.pdf","locator":"printed6, PDF10, P/E Ratio total row","note":"Different universe from OECD China price proxy. Year-end observation is NOT crash-peak PE; do not interpolate to monthly. 2015total includesA+B; A-share-onlyPE17.61."},{"caseId":"china2015","date":"2015-12","pe":17.63,"metric":"reported PE","proxy":"Shanghai Stock Exchange total market","cadence":"year-end","source":"https://star.sse.com.cn/aboutus/publication/yearly/documents/c/10061078/files/08c138fe02fa460aa1c217eaf20b2b69.pdf","locator":"printed6, PDF10, P/E Ratio total row","note":"Different universe from OECD China price proxy. Year-end observation is NOT crash-peak PE; do not interpolate to monthly. 2015total includesA+B; A-share-onlyPE17.61."}],"capexFinancials":[{"era":"dotcom","company":"MSFT","periodEnd":"1996-06-30","fiscalYear":1996,"cadence":"annual fiscal","revenue":8671000000,"ocf":3719000000,"cashCapex":494000000,"capexToOCF":0.13283140629201398,"capexToRevenue":0.05697151424287856,"operatingMargin":0.35278514588859416,"sources":[{"url":"https://www.microsoft.com/investor/reports/ar98/income.htm","locator":"Income Statements, fiscal-year columns","fields":["revenue","operatingIncome"]},{"url":"https://www.microsoft.com/investor/reports/ar98/cash.htm","locator":"Cash Flows Statements, fiscal-year columns","fields":["operatingCashFlow","cashCapex"]}],"warning":"MSFT + INTC survivor sample; not all dotcom firms or telecom buildout. Publication date unverified."},{"era":"dotcom","company":"INTC","periodEnd":"1996-12-28","fiscalYear":1996,"cadence":"annual fiscal","revenue":20847000000,"ocf":8743000000,"cashCapex":3024000000,"capexToOCF":0.3458767013610889,"capexToRevenue":0.14505684271118147,"operatingMargin":0.36230632704945553,"sources":[{"url":"https://www.intel.com/content/dam/www/central-libraries/us/en/documents/2025-05/history-1998-annual-report.pdf#page=16","locator":"PDF page 16, Consolidated Statements of Income","fields":["revenue","operatingIncome"]},{"url":"https://www.intel.com/content/dam/www/central-libraries/us/en/documents/2025-05/history-1998-annual-report.pdf#page=18","locator":"PDF page 18, Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows","fields":["operatingCashFlow","cashCapex"]}],"warning":"MSFT + INTC survivor sample; not all dotcom firms or telecom buildout. Publication date unverified."},{"era":"dotcom","company":"MSFT","periodEnd":"1997-06-30","fiscalYear":1997,"cadence":"annual fiscal","revenue":11358000000,"ocf":4689000000,"cashCapex":499000000,"capexToOCF":0.10641927916400085,"capexToRevenue":0.04393379116041557,"operatingMargin":0.42886071491459765,"sources":[{"url":"https://www.microsoft.com/investor/reports/ar98/income.htm","locator":"Income Statements, fiscal-year columns","fields":["revenue","operatingIncome"]},{"url":"https://www.microsoft.com/investor/reports/ar98/cash.htm","locator":"Cash Flows Statements, fiscal-year columns","fields":["operatingCashFlow","cashCapex"]}],"warning":"MSFT + INTC survivor sample; not all dotcom firms or telecom buildout. Publication date unverified."},{"era":"dotcom","company":"INTC","periodEnd":"1997-12-27","fiscalYear":1997,"cadence":"annual fiscal","revenue":25070000000,"ocf":10008000000,"cashCapex":4501000000,"capexToOCF":0.44974020783373303,"capexToRevenue":0.17953729557239728,"operatingMargin":0.3943757479058636,"sources":[{"url":"https://www.intel.com/content/dam/www/central-libraries/us/en/documents/2025-05/history-1998-annual-report.pdf#page=16","locator":"PDF page 16, Consolidated Statements of Income","fields":["revenue","operatingIncome"]},{"url":"https://www.intel.com/content/dam/www/central-libraries/us/en/documents/2025-05/history-1998-annual-report.pdf#page=18","locator":"PDF page 18, Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows","fields":["operatingCashFlow","cashCapex"]}],"warning":"MSFT + INTC survivor sample; not all dotcom firms or telecom buildout. Publication date unverified."},{"era":"dotcom","company":"MSFT","periodEnd":"1998-06-30","fiscalYear":1998,"cadence":"annual fiscal","revenue":14484000000,"ocf":6880000000,"cashCapex":656000000,"capexToOCF":0.09534883720930233,"capexToRevenue":0.04529135597901132,"operatingMargin":0.44283347141673574,"sources":[{"url":"https://www.microsoft.com/investor/reports/ar98/income.htm","locator":"Income Statements, fiscal-year columns","fields":["revenue","operatingIncome"]},{"url":"https://www.microsoft.com/investor/reports/ar98/cash.htm","locator":"Cash Flows Statements, fiscal-year columns","fields":["operatingCashFlow","cashCapex"]}],"warning":"MSFT + INTC survivor sample; not all dotcom firms or telecom buildout. Publication date unverified."},{"era":"dotcom","company":"INTC","periodEnd":"1998-12-26","fiscalYear":1998,"cadence":"annual fiscal","revenue":26273000000,"ocf":9191000000,"cashCapex":3557000000,"capexToOCF":0.38700903057338704,"capexToRevenue":0.13538613786016063,"operatingMargin":0.3189205648384273,"sources":[{"url":"https://www.intel.com/content/dam/www/central-libraries/us/en/documents/2025-05/history-1998-annual-report.pdf#page=16","locator":"PDF page 16, Consolidated Statements of Income","fields":["revenue","operatingIncome"]},{"url":"https://www.intel.com/content/dam/www/central-libraries/us/en/documents/2025-05/history-1998-annual-report.pdf#page=18","locator":"PDF page 18, Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows","fields":["operatingCashFlow","cashCapex"]}],"warning":"MSFT + INTC survivor sample; not all dotcom firms or telecom buildout. Publication date unverified."},{"era":"dotcom","company":"MSFT","periodEnd":"1999-06-30","fiscalYear":1999,"cadence":"annual fiscal","revenue":19747000000,"ocf":10030000000,"cashCapex":583000000,"capexToOCF":0.05812562313060818,"capexToRevenue":0.029523471919785285,"operatingMargin":0.5027599128981618,"sources":[{"url":"https://www.microsoft.com/investor/reports/ar99/income.htm","locator":"Income Statements, fiscal-year columns","fields":["revenue","operatingIncome"]},{"url":"https://www.microsoft.com/investor/reports/ar99/cash.htm","locator":"Cash Flows Statements, fiscal-year columns","fields":["operatingCashFlow","cashCapex"]}],"warning":"MSFT + INTC survivor sample; not all dotcom firms or telecom buildout. Publication date unverified."},{"era":"dotcom","company":"INTC","periodEnd":"1999-12-25","fiscalYear":1999,"cadence":"annual fiscal","revenue":29389000000,"ocf":11335000000,"cashCapex":3403000000,"capexToOCF":0.3002205558006176,"capexToRevenue":0.11579162271598217,"operatingMargin":0.3323352274660587,"sources":[{"url":"https://www.intel.com/content/dam/www/central-libraries/us/en/documents/2025-05/history-1999-annual-report.pdf#page=16","locator":"PDF page 16, Consolidated Statements of Income","fields":["revenue","operatingIncome"]},{"url":"https://www.intel.com/content/dam/www/central-libraries/us/en/documents/2025-05/history-1999-annual-report.pdf#page=18","locator":"PDF page 18, Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows","fields":["operatingCashFlow","cashCapex"]}],"warning":"MSFT + INTC survivor sample; not all dotcom firms or telecom buildout. Publication date unverified."},{"era":"dotcom","company":"MSFT","periodEnd":"2000-06-30","fiscalYear":2000,"cadence":"annual fiscal","revenue":22956000000,"ocf":13961000000,"cashCapex":879000000,"capexToOCF":0.06296110593797007,"capexToRevenue":0.03829064296915839,"operatingMargin":0.4764331765115874,"sources":[{"url":"https://www.microsoft.com/investor/reports/ar00/income.htm","locator":"Income Statements, fiscal-year columns","fields":["revenue","operatingIncome"]},{"url":"https://www.microsoft.com/investor/reports/ar00/cash.htm","locator":"Cash Flows Statements, fiscal-year columns","fields":["operatingCashFlow","cashCapex"]}],"warning":"MSFT + INTC survivor sample; not all dotcom firms or telecom buildout. Publication date unverified."},{"era":"dotcom","company":"INTC","periodEnd":"2000-12-30","fiscalYear":2000,"cadence":"annual fiscal","revenue":33726000000,"ocf":12827000000,"cashCapex":6674000000,"capexToOCF":0.5203087237857644,"capexToRevenue":0.19788886912174583,"operatingMargin":0.3082191780821918,"sources":[{"url":"https://www.intel.com/content/dam/www/central-libraries/us/en/documents/2025-05/history-2000-annual-report.pdf#page=20","locator":"PDF page 20, Consolidated Statements of Income","fields":["revenue","operatingIncome"]},{"url":"https://www.intel.com/content/dam/www/central-libraries/us/en/documents/2025-05/history-2000-annual-report.pdf#page=22","locator":"PDF page 22, Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows","fields":["operatingCashFlow","cashCapex"]}],"warning":"MSFT + INTC survivor sample; not all dotcom firms or telecom buildout. Publication date unverified."},{"era":"dotcom","company":"MSFT","periodEnd":"2001-06-30","fiscalYear":2001,"cadence":"annual fiscal","revenue":25296000000,"ocf":13422000000,"cashCapex":1103000000,"capexToOCF":0.08217851288928625,"capexToRevenue":0.043603731815306766,"operatingMargin":0.463314358001265,"sources":[{"url":"https://www.microsoft.com/investor/reports/ar02/financials/item8_income.htm","locator":"Income Statements, fiscal-year columns","fields":["revenue","operatingIncome"]},{"url":"https://www.microsoft.com/investor/reports/ar02/financials/item8_cashflows.htm","locator":"Cash Flows Statements, fiscal-year columns","fields":["operatingCashFlow","cashCapex"]}],"warning":"MSFT + INTC survivor sample; not all dotcom firms or telecom buildout. Publication date unverified."},{"era":"dotcom","company":"INTC","periodEnd":"2001-12-29","fiscalYear":2001,"cadence":"annual fiscal","revenue":26539000000,"ocf":8654000000,"cashCapex":7309000000,"capexToOCF":0.8445805407903859,"capexToRevenue":0.27540600625494555,"operatingMargin":0.08500697087305475,"sources":[{"url":"https://www.intel.com/content/dam/www/central-libraries/us/en/documents/2025-05/history-2001-annual-report.pdf#page=22","locator":"PDF page 22, Consolidated Statements of Income","fields":["revenue","operatingIncome"]},{"url":"https://www.intel.com/content/dam/www/central-libraries/us/en/documents/2025-05/history-2001-annual-report.pdf#page=24","locator":"PDF page 24, Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows","fields":["operatingCashFlow","cashCapex"]}],"warning":"MSFT + INTC survivor sample; not all dotcom firms or telecom buildout. Publication date unverified."},{"era":"dotcom","company":"MSFT","periodEnd":"2002-06-30","fiscalYear":2002,"cadence":"annual fiscal","revenue":28365000000,"ocf":14509000000,"cashCapex":770000000,"capexToOCF":0.05307050796057619,"capexToRevenue":0.027146130794993832,"operatingMargin":0.41988365943945005,"sources":[{"url":"https://www.microsoft.com/investor/reports/ar02/financials/item8_income.htm","locator":"Income Statements, fiscal-year columns","fields":["revenue","operatingIncome"]},{"url":"https://www.microsoft.com/investor/reports/ar02/financials/item8_cashflows.htm","locator":"Cash Flows Statements, fiscal-year columns","fields":["operatingCashFlow","cashCapex"]}],"warning":"MSFT + INTC survivor sample; not all dotcom firms or telecom buildout. Publication date unverified."},{"era":"dotcom","company":"INTC","periodEnd":"2002-12-28","fiscalYear":2002,"cadence":"annual fiscal","revenue":26764000000,"ocf":9129000000,"cashCapex":4703000000,"capexToOCF":0.5151714317011721,"capexToRevenue":0.1757211179195935,"operatingMargin":0.16372739500822,"sources":[{"url":"https://www.intel.com/content/dam/www/central-libraries/us/en/documents/2025-05/history-2002-annual-report.pdf#page=53","locator":"PDF page 53, Consolidated Statements of Income","fields":["revenue","operatingIncome"]},{"url":"https://www.intel.com/content/dam/www/central-libraries/us/en/documents/2025-05/history-2002-annual-report.pdf#page=55","locator":"PDF page 55, Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows","fields":["operatingCashFlow","cashCapex"]}],"warning":"MSFT + INTC survivor sample; not all dotcom firms or telecom buildout. Publication date unverified."},{"era":"dotcom","company":"MSFT","periodEnd":"2003-06-30","fiscalYear":2003,"cadence":"annual fiscal","revenue":32187000000,"ocf":15797000000,"cashCapex":891000000,"capexToOCF":0.05640311451541432,"capexToRevenue":0.027681983409451022,"operatingMargin":0.410631621462081,"sources":[{"url":"https://www.microsoft.com/investor/reports/ar03/alt/item_eight.htm","locator":"Item 8, Income Statements and Cash Flows Statements, fiscal-year columns","fields":["revenue","operatingIncome","operatingCashFlow","cashCapex"]}],"warning":"MSFT + INTC survivor sample; not all dotcom firms or telecom buildout. Publication date unverified."},{"era":"dotcom","company":"INTC","periodEnd":"2003-12-27","fiscalYear":2003,"cadence":"annual fiscal","revenue":30141000000,"ocf":11515000000,"cashCapex":3656000000,"capexToOCF":0.31749891445940076,"capexToRevenue":0.12129657277462592,"operatingMargin":0.2499253508510003,"sources":[{"url":"https://www.intel.com/content/dam/www/central-libraries/us/en/documents/2025-05/history-2003-annual-report.pdf#page=58","locator":"PDF page 58, Consolidated Statements of Income","fields":["revenue","operatingIncome"]},{"url":"https://www.intel.com/content/dam/www/central-libraries/us/en/documents/2025-05/history-2003-annual-report.pdf#page=60","locator":"PDF page 60, Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows","fields":["operatingCashFlow","cashCapex"]}],"warning":"MSFT + INTC survivor sample; not all dotcom firms or telecom buildout. Publication date unverified."},{"era":"ai-current","company":"Microsoft","periodEnd":"2026-06-30","fiscalYear":null,"cadence":"mixed fiscal TTM","revenue":331839000000,"ocf":182935000000,"cashCapex":115948000000,"capexToOCF":0.6338207560062317,"capexToRevenue":0.34941040685392616,"operatingMargin":0.4678081840892722,"sources":[{"url":"https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000789019.json"}],"warning":"Company-wide operations, not AI-specific. Cash capex excludes noncash leases. Different fiscal endpoints."},{"era":"ai-current","company":"Alphabet","periodEnd":"2026-06-30","fiscalYear":null,"cadence":"mixed fiscal TTM","revenue":445866000000,"ocf":185675000000,"cashCapex":132402000000,"capexToOCF":0.7130846909923253,"capexToRevenue":0.296954690422683,"operatingMargin":0.331103963971238,"sources":[{"url":"https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001652044.json"}],"warning":"Company-wide operations, not AI-specific. Cash capex excludes noncash leases. Different fiscal endpoints."},{"era":"ai-current","company":"Meta","periodEnd":"2026-06-30","fiscalYear":null,"cadence":"mixed fiscal TTM","revenue":228247000000,"ocf":130301000000,"cashCapex":89325000000,"capexToOCF":0.6855281233451777,"capexToRevenue":0.3913523507428356,"operatingMargin":0.3808418073402936,"sources":[{"url":"https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001326801.json"}],"warning":"Company-wide operations, not AI-specific. Cash capex excludes noncash leases. Different fiscal endpoints."},{"era":"ai-current","company":"Amazon","periodEnd":"2026-06-30","fiscalYear":null,"cadence":"mixed fiscal TTM","revenue":775680000000,"ocf":161403000000,"cashCapex":173028000000,"capexToOCF":1.0720246835560678,"capexToRevenue":0.22306621287128714,"operatingMargin":0.12081270627062707,"sources":[{"url":"https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001018724.json"}],"warning":"Company-wide operations, not AI-specific. Cash capex excludes noncash leases. Different fiscal endpoints."},{"era":"ai-current","company":"Oracle","periodEnd":"2026-05-31","fiscalYear":null,"cadence":"mixed fiscal TTM","revenue":67357000000,"ocf":31977000000,"cashCapex":55663000000,"capexToOCF":1.7407198924226788,"capexToRevenue":0.8263877547990558,"operatingMargin":0.30592217586887777,"sources":[{"url":"https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001341439.json"}],"warning":"Company-wide operations, not AI-specific. Cash capex excludes noncash leases. Different fiscal endpoints."}],"labValuations":[{"company":"OpenAI","date":"2026-03-31","valuationUSD":852000000000,"annualizedRevenueUSD":24000000000,"valuationToAnnualizedRevenue":35.5,"comparison":"Post-money private equity valuation / annualized monthly revenue pace","cadence":"single financing disclosure","source":"https://openai.com/index/accelerating-the-next-phase-ai/","qualification":"35.5x revenue pace; not EV/revenue or audited annual sales. Uses same-date primary disclosure, not newer media estimate."},{"company":"Anthropic","date":"2026-05-28","valuationUSD":965000000000,"annualizedRevenueUSDLowerBound":47000000000,"valuationToAnnualizedRevenueUpperBound":20.53191489361702,"comparison":"Post-money private equity valuation / claimed annual revenue run rate","cadence":"single financing disclosure","source":"https://www.anthropic.com/news/series-h","qualification":"Less than 20.532x because revenue run rate exceeds $47bn. Not P/E, EV/revenue, or annual GAAP sales. Same-date primary disclosure, not newer media estimate."}],"cases":[{"caseId":"us1929","name":"US stocks, 1929","priceSeries":"SHILLER_SP","priceCadence":"monthly","priceFile":"work/bubble-validation/data/SHILLER_SP_monthly.csv","risk":{"direct":"Equity holders, including investors buying on margin.","transmission":"Brokers and lenders faced margin-loan and liquidity stress; later banking panics harmed depositors and borrowers.","public":"Federal Reserve Bank of New York supplied liquidity. Distinguish the1929crash from the later1930–33banking collapse; a crash alone does not establish all Depression losses.","sources":["https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/stock-market-crash-of-1929","https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/banking-panics-1931-33"],"evidenceType":"Historical synthesis from central-bank sources"},"valuationStatus":"monthly observations","valuationProxy":"US broad equity market","valuationMetrics":["P/E","CAPE"],"valuationCadence":"monthly; source earnings interpolated","valuationFile":"valuation-series.json","valuationObservations":120,"capexStatus":"not acquired","capexFile":null},{"caseId":"gold1980","name":"Gold, 1980","priceSeries":"GOLD_WB","priceCadence":"monthly","priceFile":"work/bubble-validation/data/GOLD_WB_monthly.csv","risk":{"direct":"Long gold holders bore the price decline.","transmission":"Leveraged long positions add margin-call exposure; no quantified gold-specific creditor loss allocation acquired.","public":"No gold-specific public loss allocation established here. Do not transfer the Hunt brothers silver losses to gold.","sources":["https://www.clevelandfed.org/publications/economic-commentary/1980/ec-19800505-after-silver-and-gold-some-sober-thoughts-on-speculative-bubbles"],"evidenceType":"Direct holder loss is an inference from verified price decline; source separately describes silver leverage"},"valuationStatus":"not applicable","valuationProxy":null,"valuationMetrics":[],"valuationCadence":null,"valuationFile":null,"valuationObservations":0,"missingReason":"Asset itself produces no corporate earnings or sales; miners/producers are separate entities.","capexStatus":"not applicable","capexFile":null},{"caseId":"us1987","name":"US stocks, 1987","priceSeries":"SHILLER_SP","priceCadence":"monthly","priceFile":"work/bubble-validation/data/SHILLER_SP_monthly.csv","risk":{"direct":"Equity holders and traders with long exposure.","transmission":"Clearinghouses, brokers and their banks faced settlement and funding demands.","public":"Fed liquidity support helped markets clear; liquidity provision is not evidence shareholders were reimbursed.","sources":["https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/stock-market-crash-of-1987","https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2007/200713/200713pap.pdf"],"evidenceType":"Central-bank historical research"},"valuationStatus":"monthly observations","valuationProxy":"US broad equity market","valuationMetrics":["P/E","CAPE"],"valuationCadence":"monthly; source earnings interpolated","valuationFile":"valuation-series.json","valuationObservations":108,"capexStatus":"not acquired","capexFile":null},{"caseId":"japan1989","name":"Japan equities, 1989","priceSeries":"NIKKEI225","priceCadence":"monthly","priceFile":"work/bubble-validation/data/NIKKEI225_monthly.csv","risk":{"direct":"Shareholders, including corporate cross-holders, banks, insurers and households.","transmission":"The wider land-and-equity bust left nonperforming property loans at banks and reduced lending capacity.","public":"Public capital, depositor protection and temporary bank nationalizations shifted some financial-system exposure onto the state. This is the broader Japanese asset/banking crisis, not Nikkei-only loss accounting.","sources":["https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/publications/1-s2.0-0304405X91900066-main.pdf","https://www.boj.or.jp/en/about/press/danwa/dan9810a.htm","https://www2.boj.or.jp/archive/en/announcements/press/koen_1998/ko9809a.htm"],"evidenceType":"Original research on share ownership plus contemporaneous BOJ statements"},"valuationStatus":"annual observations; no monthly interpolation","valuationProxy":"NRI 350 Japanese nonfinancial firms","valuationMetrics":["P/E"],"valuationCadence":"year-end; 1990 is August-end","valuationFile":"annual-valuation-series.json","valuationObservations":21,"capexStatus":"not acquired","capexFile":null},{"caseId":"dotcom2000","name":"Dot-com, 2000","priceSeries":"NASDAQCOM","priceCadence":"monthly","priceFile":"work/bubble-validation/data/NASDAQCOM_monthly.csv","risk":{"direct":"Public shareholders and private venture investors.","transmission":"Mishkin distinguishes the tech-stock bust from credit-driven bubbles: it was not accompanied by marked bank-balance-sheet deterioration.","public":"Macroeconomic easing supported activity; this source does not establish a general reimbursement of dotcom equity losses.","sources":["https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/mishkin20080515a.htm"],"evidenceType":"Central-bank analysis; primary investor incidence follows equity ownership"},"valuationStatus":"monthly observations","valuationProxy":"US broad market context; not Nasdaq P/E","valuationMetrics":["P/E","CAPE"],"valuationCadence":"monthly; source earnings interpolated","valuationFile":"valuation-series.json","valuationObservations":108,"capexStatus":"annual company sample","capexFile":"capex-financials.json"},{"caseId":"housing2006","name":"US housing, 2006","priceSeries":"CSUSHPINSA","priceCadence":"monthly","priceFile":"work/bubble-validation/data/CSUSHPINSA_monthly.csv","risk":{"direct":"Homeowners lost equity; mortgage defaults passed losses to lenders and mortgage-security investors.","transmission":"Highly leveraged financial firms and securitized credit transmitted the shock beyond homeowners.","public":"Treasury put public funds at risk throughTARP. Its final net program cost was$31.1bn including interest, asof2023-09-30; this is NOT the total economic cost of the crisis or gross bank-loss subsidy.","sources":["https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/bernanke20100902a.htm","https://home.treasury.gov/data/troubled-asset-relief-program/"],"evidenceType":"Congressional testimony and final Treasury program accounting"},"valuationStatus":"not acquired","valuationProxy":null,"valuationMetrics":[],"valuationCadence":null,"valuationFile":null,"valuationObservations":0,"missingReason":"A corporate P/E is not the right housing denominator. Price/rent or price/income would be meaningful, but no verified matched denominator series has been acquired.","capexStatus":"not applicable","capexFile":null},{"caseId":"china2007","name":"China equities, 2007","priceSeries":"SPASTT01CNM661N","priceCadence":"monthly","priceFile":"work/bubble-validation/data/SPASTT01CNM661N_monthly.csv","risk":{"direct":"Investors holding Chinese equities bore the market-value decline.","transmission":"No case-specific split among retail, institutions and creditors was verified here.","public":"No quantified tax-funded loss allocation established in this dataset.","sources":["https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2009/166/article-A001-en.xml","https://www.sse.com.cn/aboutus/publication/yearly/documents/c/10061086/files/c6db3f91030b4533ad5bd85cb421b18e.pdf"],"evidenceType":"Direct shareholder incidence inferred from verified market decline; allocation intentionally unquantified"},"valuationStatus":"annual observations; no monthly interpolation","valuationProxy":"Shanghai Stock Exchange total market","valuationMetrics":["P/E"],"valuationCadence":"year-end","valuationFile":"annual-valuation-series.json","valuationObservations":3,"capexStatus":"not acquired","capexFile":null},{"caseId":"china2015","name":"China equities, 2015","priceSeries":"SPASTT01CNM661N","priceCadence":"monthly","priceFile":"work/bubble-validation/data/SPASTT01CNM661N_monthly.csv","risk":{"direct":"Equity investors, especially leveraged retail accounts forced to sell as they approached borrowing limits.","transmission":"Brokerage and shadow-financed margin systems transmitted forced selling. Small investors and large investors had different outcomes; aggregate loss is not uniform.","public":"Authorities supported markets; do not equate support commitments with realized taxpayer loss.","sources":["https://www.nber.org/papers/w25040","https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2015/aug/box-a-the-recent-decline-in-chinese-equity-prices.html"],"evidenceType":"Original account-level research and central-bank contemporary review"},"valuationStatus":"annual observations; no monthly interpolation","valuationProxy":"Shanghai Stock Exchange total market","valuationMetrics":["P/E"],"valuationCadence":"year-end","valuationFile":"annual-valuation-series.json","valuationObservations":3,"capexStatus":"not acquired","capexFile":null},{"caseId":"bitcoin2017","name":"Bitcoin, 2017","priceSeries":"BTC","priceCadence":"monthly","priceFile":"work/bubble-validation/data/BTC_monthly.csv","risk":{"direct":"Long Bitcoin holders; pessimistic futures traders could gain as prices fell.","transmission":"Investor entry timing and position direction determine losses. No complete2017creditor or customer allocation verified.","public":"No public loss allocation established here.","sources":["https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2018/05/how-futures-trading-changed-bitcoin-prices/"],"evidenceType":"Central-bank original research; long-holder loss inference"},"valuationStatus":"not applicable","valuationProxy":null,"valuationMetrics":[],"valuationCadence":null,"valuationFile":null,"valuationObservations":0,"missingReason":"Asset itself produces no corporate earnings or sales; miners/producers are separate entities.","capexStatus":"not applicable","capexFile":null},{"caseId":"bitcoin2021","name":"Bitcoin, 2021","priceSeries":"BTC","priceCadence":"monthly","priceFile":"work/bubble-validation/data/BTC_monthly.csv","risk":{"direct":"Bitcoin holders; BIS estimates most crypto-app users in its2015–22sample lost on Bitcoin.","transmission":"The2022crypto shock also exposed exchange/lending customers; price losses and platform failures are separate channels.","public":"BIS found limited discernible spillovers outside crypto in these shocks. This is not a claim of zero external risk.","sources":["https://www.bis.org/publications/bulletin-69-crypto-shocks-and-retail-losses"],"evidenceType":"BIS original dataset analysis; full2015–22sample not a2021peak-only cohort"},"valuationStatus":"not applicable","valuationProxy":null,"valuationMetrics":[],"valuationCadence":null,"valuationFile":null,"valuationObservations":0,"missingReason":"Asset itself produces no corporate earnings or sales; miners/producers are separate entities.","capexStatus":"not applicable","capexFile":null},{"caseId":"ai-current","name":"AI today","priceSeries":"AI_PROXY","priceCadence":"monthly","priceFile":"work/bubble-validation/data/AI_PROXY_monthly.csv","risk":{"direct":"Scenario: public hyperscaler/supplier shareholders and private lab investors first face reduced equity value or dilution.","transmission":"Scenario: creditors and equipment/data-center lessors face default or stranded-capacity exposure; compute providers face customer-concentration and contracted-capacity risk.","public":"No observed AI crash or public rescue is assumed. Customer and taxpayer burden depends on contracts and future policy, so leave unquantified.","sources":["https://openai.com/index/accelerating-the-next-phase-ai/","https://www.anthropic.com/news/series-h","https://openai.com/index/amazon-partnership/","https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-amazon-compute"],"evidenceType":"Explicit prospective inference from disclosed financing/compute commitments; not historical realized-loss data"},"valuationStatus":"monthly observations","valuationProxy":"US broad market context; not AI-specific","valuationMetrics":["P/E","CAPE"],"valuationCadence":"monthly; source earnings interpolated","valuationFile":"valuation-series.json","valuationObservations":81,"capexStatus":"TTM company sample","capexFile":"capex-financials.json"}],"notes":["All source observations are retained at actual cadence; do not fill missing observations with artificial monthly values.","Use separate panels for P/E, CAPE, price/revenue pace, capex/OCF, and indexed prices; these are different quantities.","The US broad-market context is not an AI-only or Nasdaq valuation. Japan and China PE universes differ from their price proxies.","Risk-bearer narratives are qualitative. They are not a quantified percentage split of losses.","Current lab values retain same-date primary2026disclosures from the existing verified snapshot; newer media estimates intentionally not blended into those ratios."]}}